Home to 60 million people, Sumatra is Indonesia’s second-most populous island after Java and is seen as one of the key battlegrounds in Indonesian politics. The 10 provinces in Sumatra have a total of 127 out of 580 seats in Indonesia’s national parliament.
Some ethnically and politically diverse provinces like Lampung and North Sumatra have been considered as bellwether areas, often mirroring exactly with how national voters behave during previous elections.
A THREE-HORSE RACE COMPLICATES MATTERS
During the previous two elections, Mr Jokowi had to fight hard to win the hearts and minds of voters in Sumatra, a massive 470,000 square km spear-shaped island which separates the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Strait.
In 2014, Mr Jokowi lost in four out of 10 provinces in Sumatra to his then-rival, retired Army general, Prabowo Subianto.
Five years later, when Mr Jokowi squared off with Mr Prabowo for the second time, the president fared even worse, losing six Sumatran provinces, including Aceh and West Sumatra where the retired general enjoyed a landslide win of more than 85 per cent.
Even in North Sumatra, a province known for being a stronghold for Mr Jokowi’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the incumbent was only able to secure a narrow victory of 52 per cent in the 2019 election.
But once Mr Jokowi’s infrastructure drive kicked into high gear during his second term in office, the president’s popularity in Sumatra began to soar.
“If Jokowi can run for a third term, he might win again,” said Dr Alfian of Aceh’s Malikussaleh University.
Indonesia today has three presidential candidates for this year’s election: former Jakarta governor, Mr Anies Baswedan; Mr Prabowo and former Central Java governor, Mr Ganjar Pranowo.
Since the 2019 election, Mr Prabowo has joined the president’s cabinet as defence minister and chosen Mr Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his running mate.
Mr Jokowi’s party, PDI-P and three other parties in the president’s ruling coalition are throwing their weight against Mr Ganjar, who many say has a similar leadership style as Mr Jokowi.
Meanwhile, Mr Anies, who is being supported by among others: conservative Islamic groups and members of the opposition, is riding on a campaign platform which promises change to the way the current government is running the country.
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2024-02-05 22:00:00Z
CBMiVGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNoYW5uZWxuZXdzYXNpYS5jb20vYXNpYS9pbmRvbmVzaWEtcHJlc2lkZW50aWFsLWVsZWN0aW9uLXN1bWF0cmEtNDAxMzcwMdIBAA
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