Is China about to end Covid Zero? Here's what we know right now - The Straits Times

BEIJING - Speculation about the fate of China’s Covid Zero policy has reached fever pitch.

After President Xi Jinping defended the strategy in his much-anticipated Communist Party congress address in October, investors were left wondering what comes next as the lockdowns and blanket testing that are the hallmark of Covid Zero continued. 

In the absence of a clear outlook on when it will all end, traders have seized on what they see as signs of progress, with an unverified screenshot of mysterious origins claiming China was making detailed plans to reopen stoking a US$450 billion (S$630 billion) rally last week. 

The rumours continued into the weekend, ahead of a briefing by China’s National Health Commission, where newfound buzz about a Covid Zero exit plan was punctured by officials saying they were resolutely adhering to the strategy. 

With markets continuing to whipsaw, and decoding China’s intentions key to everything from the fortunes of beaten-down domestic stocks to the global economic outlook, we’ve brought together what we know about the controversial strategy going forward:  

Has anything changed to suggest China is adjusting its Covid policies?

Since Mr Xi’s speech at the Party congress, there have been some solid indications that Chinese officials have at least started a dialogue about how to ease the more isolationist aspects of Covid Zero.

Officials are debating how they may go about further reducing mandatory hotel quarantine for incoming travellers, Bloomberg News reported last month.

The aviation regulator has also encouraged state-owned carriers to add more flights, and officials are considering scrapping a system that penalises airlines for bringing a certain number of Covid-positive passengers into China.

All of these – while largely at the discussion or planning stage – point to a desire to ease up at the border. 

On the vaccine front, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave the first indication that China may be willing to roll out more effective, foreign Covid-19 shots – seen by many as key to being able to reopen without a mass wave of deaths – when he said on Friday the country had agreed to make BioNTech’s vaccine available to foreigners living there. Mr Scholz said it was a potential first step toward wider adoption in the world’s second-largest economy. 

BioNTech confirmed Monday that it’s in “positive” discussions with Chinese authorities, though it was too early to give any details on the expat vaccination programme, or any wider approval in China for its Covid-19 shot.

So is China getting ready to end Covid Zero – or just tweak it?

That’s unclear. While relaxing border curbs could help reduce China’s isolation from the rest of the world, it won’t address the more economically-damaging aspects of Covid Zero.

It is, however, hard to find concrete signs of China easing its internal Covid-19 playbook of lockdowns, curbs on domestic travel and frequent mass testing. 

While Beijing has ramped up its directive for local officials to make Covid Zero less obtrusive, that seems to have mainly resulted in restrictions going under the radar.

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2022-11-08 03:00:00Z
CBMiYGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnN0cmFpdHN0aW1lcy5jb20vYXNpYS9pcy1jaGluYS1hYm91dC10by1lbmQtY292aWQtemVyby1oZXJlLXMtd2hhdC13ZS1rbm93LXJpZ2h0LW5vd9IBAA