Theresa May’s government is now so out of ideas and time that Parliament as a whole has been given extraordinary powers to introduce motions to vote on. On Monday, the latest four of these failed to win a majority, even though each promoted a “Remainer” preference and should have appealed to the “Remainer” majority in Parliament.
With the failure of these latest attempts to thwart the verdict of the referendum, the United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on April 12, but a lot can still happen before then.
May’s thrice-rejected deal will get another vote, as will other Parliamentary motions. Alternatively, May or the whole government could resign, or the government could try to delay or just call the whole thing off by revoking Article 50.
I believe the U.K. will leave the EU at the end of next week with no deal, and here is why.
First, this is what will happen by default. The date cannot be extended without EU consent and Britain taking part in upcoming EU elections. Brussels will be loath to part with £39 billion, but the EU knows the new intake of UK MEPs would most likely be even more Eurosceptic and rebellious.
What sweet irony if the EU ends up giving Brexiteers the “no-deal” exit that their own parliament has sought to deny them.
Secondly, last week the U.K. Parliament voted against May’s plan for the third time, although the margin of defeat has reduced each time, from 230 to 149 to 58. Will a fourth vote turn that still-large gap into a majority?
May did manage to win over senior Eurosceptic Conservatives such as Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg with the reasoning that her deal was now the only chance for the U.K. to leave the EU, but there are no guarantees they will repeat such an indiscretion.
How could they have voted for it at all, after claiming the deal leaves Britain in a state of permanent vassalage, forced to abide by EU directives? Indeed, one of those “turned” MP’s, Richard Drax, felt the need to apologize afterwards in the House of Commons for having voted for May’s deal and deserted his Brexit colleagues.
Thirdly, although Parliament disparages a “no-deal” exit as “falling off a cliff” or “crashing out,” it is the one option that circumvents the ongoing EU controls that May’s deal involves and saves Britain from paying the extortionate divorce bill.
The often-repeated doomsday warnings against a no-deal Brexit have little credibility among Leavers. Even the former governor of the Bank of England, Lord Mervyn King, supports “no-deal.” He sees many benefits of initially trading on World Trade Organization terms.
Brexiteers understand that once the U.K. is fully out it will then be in a much stronger position to seek genuine free trade deals with Europe and elsewhere. If Japan can have an FTA with the EU, then why not the U.K.?
Another big fan of Great Britain acquiring full independence from the EU customs union is President Trump, who is offering the U.K. a huge future trade deal. So, why is this not high on May’s agenda?
May claims she has sought to deliver an orderly exit from the EU, but her deal has the appearance of an “insurance policy” designed to prevent a clean Brexit.
Just as the deep state didn’t want Trump elected president, Brexit wasn’t part of the U.K. establishment’s plan either. But so far, every alternative they have tried to come up with to delay, block, or redefine it has failed.
The real heroes of Brexit have been the 10 members of Parliament from the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland, led by Arlene Foster. They formed an alliance to keep the Conservatives in power after the disastrous last election, preventing Jeremy Corbyn from taking over.
Since then, they have consistently voted against May’s deal and energized “Leaver” Conservative MPs to follow suit. The DUP’s reason is that they place keeping the U.K. together above all else. They know that May’s deal has the potential to divide Northern Ireland from mainland Britain.
What a pity that such patriotism didn’t factor as highly in the Prime Minister’s thoughts when she first proposed the backstop to prevent Northern Ireland from being cut off from the rest of the U.K.
Andrew Davies is a UK-based video producer and script writer.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/the-uk-will-leave-the-eu-next-tuesday
2019-04-02 15:09:00Z
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