Jumat, 31 Mei 2019

Trump’s Tariff Threat Sends Mexico, Lawmakers and Businesses Scrambling - The New York Times

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s threat to punish Mexico with tariffs until it restrains the flow of migrants across the southwestern border rattled financial markets on Friday and prompted pushback from the Mexican government, American businesses and Republican lawmakers, who accused Mr. Trump of overstepping his authority and pressed him to back down.

The president has made frequent use of tariffs to force trade concessions from other governments, including Mexico, Canada, China and Europe. But he raised the stakes on Thursday night by threatening to hit the United States’ ally and its largest trading partner with tariffs for issues related to immigration, not trade. Republican lawmakers, who have rarely challenged the president, objected to the move, saying tariffs were the wrong tool to try to address illegal immigration.

But Mr. Trump, who is invoking emergency powers to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on all Mexican goods, showed no signs of relenting. He said on Friday that he would proceed with tariffs that could hurt American consumers and some of its biggest companies, including automakers, agricultural companies and retailers.

“Mexico makes a FORTUNE from the U.S., have for decades, they can easily fix this problem,” the president said on Twitter.

Stock prices slid on Friday, continuing a monthlong retreat, with the S&P 500 down more than 6 percent this month and the bond market flashing worrying signs of a global recession. Shares in General Motors and Ford each fell about 4 percent.

Mexico quickly dispatched its foreign minister to Washington on Friday to try to dissuade the president from imposing the levies and its president pleaded with Mr. Trump to find another way to address the issue. In a measured letter to Mr. Trump, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico said that he did not want confrontation and that his country was doing as much as possible to stem the flow of migrants “without violating human rights.”

Officials with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s largest business group, said they were exploring the grounds on which they might mount a legal challenge.

Image
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico on Friday. In a letter to Mr. Trump, he said that Mexico was doing as much as possible to stem the flow of migrants “without violating human rights.”CreditHenry Romero/Reuters

“Given the gravity of the situation we have to explore all our options,” said Neil Bradley, the chief policy officer at the chamber.

The move capped a furious month of cross-border tariff threats that have rattled investors and raised economists’ concerns about a slowdown in global growth. Only three weeks ago, Mr. Trump increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and started the process of taxing nearly everything China sends into the United States. The president has also threatened auto tariffs on Europe and Japan, setting a six-month deadline for those governments to reach a trade agreement with the United States.

Most economists have warned that large and sustained tariff increases, along with likely retaliation against American farmers and other exporters, will dampen global trade and drag on growth in the United States.

“We don’t know what straw will break the camel’s back here, but Trump is looking like he wants to try to find out,” Timothy Duy, an economist at the University of Oregon, wrote in a blog post on Friday.

Imposing tariffs on Mexican products would be particularly damaging given the tight integration of businesses across North America. Companies like General Motors, Ford and others have built their supply chains around the North American Free Trade Agreement, with borderless operations stretching across Canada, Mexico and the United States.

The United States imported about $347 billion of goods from Mexico last year, covering items ranging from cars, dishwashers, avocados and mangoes. If tariffs are fully put in place at 25 percent, it would be the equivalent of an $87 billion annual tax increase.

It could also effectively kill one of Mr. Trump’s primary policy goals — getting Congress to pass a revised North American trade pact. Democrats have already resisted Mr. Trump’s entreaties to pass the pact, known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and the new tariff threat could be its death knell. The president’s move is quickly souring relations with Mexico, as well as the Republicans and business owners that are crucial to getting his North American trade deal passed into law.

Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, warned that following through with the tariffs “would seriously jeopardize passage of U.S.M.C.A., a central campaign pledge of President Trump’s and what could be a big victory for the country.”

Image
Asylum seekers at the United States-Mexico border on Friday.CreditGuillermo Arias/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

“I urge the president to consider other options,” he said.

The new threat of levies against Mexico comes less than two weeks after the administration agreed to lift its tariffs on Mexican and Canadian steel and aluminum, which both the administration and lawmakers greeted as a major step toward passing the revised pact into law.

“The White House will need to pass out neck braces if this trade policy whiplash continues for much longer,” said Kip Eideberg, a vice president at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, which represents companies like Caterpillar and John Deere.

Administration officials acknowledged the incongruity of linking immigration with trade, but said the new tariffs should not have any effect on the passage of the revised trade deal.

“These are not tariffs as part of a trade dispute. These are tariffs as part of an immigration problem,” Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, said in a call with reporters Thursday night. He added that passage of the trade deal was “absolutely not linked” to the tariffs threat.

“That is separate and apart from the U.S.M.C.A., which is a trade matter,” Mr. Mulvaney said. “The U.S.M.C.A. is a trade matter and completely separate,” he said.

However, Peter Navarro, a top adviser to Mr. Trump, suggested the issue was a matter of trade, saying on CNBC that the tariffs would punish Mexico’s “export” of “illegal immigrants.”

The tariffs are the latest threat by a president who has grown increasingly frustrated by the Mexican government’s inability to curb the flow of migrants, most of them Central Americans fleeing poverty and violence, who are entering the United States.

In March, Mr. Trump threatened to close the border entirely, but was talked down by advisers who said the disruption in the flow of goods and people could have severe consequences for the economy. In April, he threatened a 25 percent tariff on cars imported from Mexico if it did not take bigger steps to stop the border crossings.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/mexico-tariffs-donald-trump.html

2019-05-31 19:08:03Z
52780305674640

Kim Yong Chol's demotion would be very good news for America - Washington Examiner

Reports from a South Korean newspaper suggests that two of Kim Jong Un's top officials have been purged from his regime. If true, this would be welcome news for U.S. diplomacy.

Chosun Ilbo reports that North Korea has executed a lead negotiator responsible for discussions with the U.S., has sent Kim Yong Chol to a labor camp, and has told Kim's sister Kim Yo Jong to "lie low." It also asserts that a North Korean propaganda outlet, Rodong Sinmun, recently editorialized against traitors.

The U.S. State Department says it is investigating. But again, if this report is true, the first reaction should be one of guarded optimism for the U.S. After all, if Kim Yong Chol has been purged from the highest echelons of the regime, it would mean the departure of a key hardliner who had the North Korean leader's ear.

And there should be very little doubt that Kim Yong Chol is an archon of North Korean regime hardliners. Pushing his young boss to play for time and sanctions relief, Kim Yong Chol is an obstruction to President Trump's grand bargain. And up until this news, it was increasingly clear that the North Korean leader was holding to his adviser's bent. If, however, Kim Yong Chol has been sent away to the gulags, it comes at a crucial time. Kim Jong Un has repeatedly struck out those around him to consolidate his personal power at the heart of North Korean governance. Yet regime pressures in North Korea are now defined by the upcoming food crisis. If Kim cannot address that food crisis, either by an amelioration of U.S. sanctions under diplomacy, or via extorting the U.S., he is likely to launch new long range ballistic missile tests. Kim Yong Chol almost certainly would have advised a harder rather than softer line against America.

This flows into why I believe President Trump walked away from Kim Yong Un at the two leaders' most recent summit in Hanoi this February. Trump believes, with good reason, that Kim has not yet made up his mind as to whether to pursue a compromise. So if only for a moment, and if only contingent on Chosun Ilbo's report, this is good news.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/kim-yong-chols-demotion-would-be-very-good-news-for-america

2019-05-31 16:16:00Z
52780306446645

Trump threatens tariffs on Mexico over immigration: Live updates - CNN

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders dismissed any legal concerns with the President’s tariffs announcement.

Asked if there are concerns the action will get tied up in court, Sanders said:

“Not at all. The President has the legal authority to do this through IEEPA. In fact, that give him much broader authority than he’s taken on this front.”

For context: IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which authorizes the President to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency.

She continued, “This is a measured response to the authority that he has, there’s case law that supports it from precedent where this has been done in the past. And again, the President’s going to fulfill his duty, it would be nice if Congress would fulfill theirs.”

However: As CNN reported yesterday, privately, officials have conceded it’s not clear the White House has the legal authority to impose tariffs on this scale. They are concerned that, because of the scope, the mandate will potentially face legal challenges that could leave it tied up in the courts before June 10 even gets here. 

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-mexico-tariffs-immigration-2019/index.html

2019-05-31 16:12:00Z
52780305674640

Trump announces escalating tariffs against Mexico, starting at 5 percent, until illegal immigrants 'STOP' - Fox News

President Trump on Thursday abruptly announced a new 5 percent tariff on Mexico beginning in early June, saying the levy will "gradually increase" until the ongoing illegal immigration surge at the southern border is "remedied" and illegal migrants "STOP."

"On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP," Trump wrote. "The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied, ... ..at which time the Tariffs will be removed. Details from the White House to follow."

Fox News is told the tariff on all goods by land, sea, and air from Mexico will hike to 10 percent on July 1 -- and potentially increase substantially from there.

"If Mexico still has not taken action to dramatically reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens crossing its territory into the United States, Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019," Trump said in a statement released later by the White House on Thursday. "Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory."

The statement added: "Thousands of innocent lives are taken every year as a result of this lawless chaos.  It must end NOW! ... Mexico’s passive cooperation in allowing this mass incursion constitutes an emergency and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States."

Specifically, White House sources told Fox News that Mexico would need to step up security efforts on the border, target transnational smugglers, crack down on illicit bus lines and align with the U.S. on a workable asylum policy. Mexico could use certain so-called choke points on the southern border to curb illegal migration sharply, according to the sources.

The Washington Post reported earlier in the day that the Trump administration was considering the move, and that it had broad support in the White House -- although some aides reportedly tried to talk Trump out of it.

“We are going to do something very dramatic on the border because people are coming into our country," Trump told reporters earlier Thursday.

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 permits tariffs to be levied by the executive in the event of a national emergency originating from a foreign source. Trump said he was invoking the powers in the law and would use his "sole discretion" to determine whether Mexico had taken sufficient action.

"If Mexico does not take decisive measures, it will come at a significant price," Trump concluded in his statement.

The situation could complicate the legislative passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), sent to Congress by the White House on Thursday, which has aimed broadly to limit tariffs among the three countries.

However, the White House told Fox News it saw the matters as entirely distinct and did not anticipate complications for the USMCA.

Migrants seeking asylum in the United States lining up for meals provided by volunteers near the international bridge in Matamoros, Mexico. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

Migrants seeking asylum in the United States lining up for meals provided by volunteers near the international bridge in Matamoros, Mexico. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

Vice President Mike Pence was in the Canadian capital of Ottawa on Thursday to build support for the USMCA. The U.S. recently lifted steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada that had threatened to sink the arrangement, which was signed in November with the goal of replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement.

TRUMP ORDERS ASYLUM OVERHAUL, CITING STATS SHOWING MOST CLAIMS ARE FRAUDULENT OR UNFOUNDED

The news of the tariff came hours after Politico reported that an internal plan under consideration at the Department of Homeland Security effectively would block Central American migrants from bringing asylum claims, by prohibiting claims from applicants who resided in a country other than their own before seeking entry to the United States.

Arrests along the southern border have skyrocketed in recent months, with border agents making more than 100,000 arrests or denials of entry in March, a 12-year high. Immigration courts that process asylum claims currently have faced a backlog of more than 800,000 cases and asylum applicants increasingly have been staying in the U.S. even after their claims for asylum have been denied.

More than 4,000 individuals have been apprehended at the border with children who are not their own in recent months, administration officials tell Fox News.

And, Customs and Border Protection said it apprehended or turned away over 109,000 migrants attempting to cross the border in April, the second month in a row the number has topped 100,000.

In a dramatic moment, more than 1,000 illegal immigrants were apprehended by border agents near the U.S.-Mexico border early Wednesday -- the largest ever group of migrants ever apprehended at a single time, sources told Fox News on Thursday. The group of 1,036 illegal immigrants found in the El Paso sector included migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, according to sources.

Trump tweeted a video of the episode on Thursday, with the note: “Democrats need to stand by our incredible Border Patrol and finally fix the loopholes at our Border!”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

A top Border Patrol official told lawmakers in April that authorities have apprehended more families illegally crossing the border between October 2018 and February of this year than during all of the 2018 fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2017-Sept. 30, 2018).

"Much media attention has focused on caravans coming across from Central America," Rio Grande Valley (RGV) Sector Chief Patrol Agent Rodolfo Karisch told the Senate Homeland Security Committee. "But, the fact is that RGV is receiving caravan-equivalent numbers every seven days."

Fox News' John Roberts and Edward Lawrence contributed to this report.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-mexico-tariffs-escalating-illegal-immigrants-stop

2019-05-31 15:08:40Z
52780305674640

Why Mexico is so important to the American auto industry - CNN

Every American auto factory depends on Mexican parts to build its cars or trucks. That's why President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Mexican imports of up to 25% by October is rattling the US auto industry. The tariffs could raise costs in the United States by tens of billions of dollars in the auto industry alone.
Car buyers would probably pay the cost of those tariffs.
"We believe the tariffs on vehicles would undoubtedly be passed on to consumers," wrote Emmanuel Rosner, auto analyst for Deutsche Bank. If the Trump administration enforces the full 25% tariff, it would increase the price of vehicles sold in the United States by an average of about $1,300, Rosner said.
That price increase would hurt demand for cars, perhaps cutting US auto production by as much as 3 million vehicles a year, an 18% drop from current levels, Rosner estimates.
If that happened, it would be the greatest blow to the US auto industry since the Great Recession sent the industry hurling toward near collapse 10 years ago.
The industry imported $59.4 billion in parts from Mexico last year, according to US government trade data. That includes parts used in factories and those sold in auto parts stores and repair shops.
Mexico is by far the largest foreign source of parts used by the industry. About 16% of all auto parts used by US assembly plants come from Mexico, according to an estimate from the Center for Automotive Research, a leading industry think tank.
Dow set to fall 300 points on Mexican tariffs
Automakers can't easily shift to other suppliers to avoid using parts from Mexico. Mexican parts suppliers specialize in providing low-cost, labor-intensive components, which don't make economic sense to build elsewhere, said Kristin Dziczek, vice president of industry, labor and economics at the center.
For example, 70% of wire harnesses, the collection of wires that carry power throughout a vehicle, come from Mexico. Few if any wire harnesses are made in the United States. Much of the rest of the harnesses arrive at the US-Mexican border from countries south of Mexico.
"It's one of the first pieces you install when you're assembling a car," she said in April when Trump was threatening to close the border with Mexico altogether. Such a move would have shut the entire US auto industry within a week, she estimated.
"You can't build the whole car and slap the wire harness in later. This is a big critical part that shuts down the assembly line if you don't have it."
Finished cars and trucks also come into the United States from Mexico — about 2.7 million autos were imported from Mexico last year, worth $52 billion, according to the US Commerce Department. That's nearly a million more autos than came from Japan, the No. 2 source of auto imports.
A 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico would add about $28 billion a year to the cost of completed vehicles and parts.
Automakers are strong supporters of the new trade deal that the Trump administration negotiated with Mexico and Canada designed to replace NAFTA. That trade agreement, the US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), would continue to allow most auto parts and vehicles to cross the border in both directions without tariffs. But it needs Congressional ratification before it takes effect.
The USMCA "relies on duty-free access to be successful. The imposition of tariffs against Mexico will undermine its positive impact and would impose significant cost on the US auto industry," said Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council, an industry group representing GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler.
The US auto industry is already struggling with increased costs because of the Trump administration's tariffs on steel and aluminum. Both General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have estimated that rising commodity prices from those tariffs have raised their costs by more than $1 billion each.
The entire industry has been trying to cut costs to free up cash for the expensive research and development challenge of developing the next generation of electric and self-driving cars. That is the reason GM cited for its plans to close four US factories this year.
That means automakers probably wouldn't assume the cost of the tariffs. Instead, they would pass them onto consumers. That could hurt American auto sales and cost additional jobs in the United States. Last year, GM warned that a proposal to put tariffs on all cars and auto parts imports from around the world would lead it and other automakers to cut US jobs.
Trump erupts over immigration, threatening Mexico with tariffs
Costs would rise even further if Mexico responds by imposing tariffs of its own on American goods. That would be a double blow to the US auto industry, because Mexico is a major market for both its cars and its parts.
Mexico bought 140,600 cars from the US last year, about 8% of all car exports, making it the fourth largest market behind Canada, China and Germany, according to the US Commerce Department. Those cars cost $3.3 billion.
More importantly, US parts makers shipped another $32.5 billion worth of parts to Mexico, mostly to use in Mexican auto plants.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/31/business/mexico-tariffs-auto-industry/index.html

2019-05-31 14:52:00Z
52780305674640

Trump announces escalating tariffs against Mexico, starting at 5 percent, until illegal immigrants 'STOP' - Fox News

President Trump on Thursday abruptly announced a new 5 percent tariff on Mexico beginning in early June, saying the levy will "gradually increase" until the ongoing illegal immigration surge at the southern border is "remedied" and illegal migrants "STOP."

"On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP," Trump wrote. "The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied, ... ..at which time the Tariffs will be removed. Details from the White House to follow."

Fox News is told the tariff on all goods by land, sea, and air from Mexico will hike to 10 percent on July 1 -- and potentially increase substantially from there.

"If Mexico still has not taken action to dramatically reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens crossing its territory into the United States, Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019," Trump said in a statement released later by the White House on Thursday. "Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory."

The statement added: "Thousands of innocent lives are taken every year as a result of this lawless chaos.  It must end NOW! ... Mexico’s passive cooperation in allowing this mass incursion constitutes an emergency and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States."

Specifically, White House sources told Fox News that Mexico would need to step up security efforts on the border, target transnational smugglers, crack down on illicit bus lines and align with the U.S. on a workable asylum policy. Mexico could use certain so-called choke points on the southern border to curb illegal migration sharply, according to the sources.

The Washington Post reported earlier in the day that the Trump administration was considering the move, and that it had broad support in the White House -- although some aides reportedly tried to talk Trump out of it.

“We are going to do something very dramatic on the border because people are coming into our country," Trump told reporters earlier Thursday.

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 permits tariffs to be levied by the executive in the event of a national emergency originating from a foreign source. Trump said he was invoking the powers in the law and would use his "sole discretion" to determine whether Mexico had taken sufficient action.

"If Mexico does not take decisive measures, it will come at a significant price," Trump concluded in his statement.

The situation could complicate the legislative passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), sent to Congress by the White House on Thursday, which has aimed broadly to limit tariffs among the three countries.

However, the White House told Fox News it saw the matters as entirely distinct and did not anticipate complications for the USMCA.

Migrants seeking asylum in the United States lining up for meals provided by volunteers near the international bridge in Matamoros, Mexico. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

Migrants seeking asylum in the United States lining up for meals provided by volunteers near the international bridge in Matamoros, Mexico. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

Vice President Mike Pence was in the Canadian capital of Ottawa on Thursday to build support for the USMCA. The U.S. recently lifted steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada that had threatened to sink the arrangement, which was signed in November with the goal of replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement.

TRUMP ORDERS ASYLUM OVERHAUL, CITING STATS SHOWING MOST CLAIMS ARE FRAUDULENT OR UNFOUNDED

The news of the tariff came hours after Politico reported that an internal plan under consideration at the Department of Homeland Security effectively would block Central American migrants from bringing asylum claims, by prohibiting claims from applicants who resided in a country other than their own before seeking entry to the United States.

Arrests along the southern border have skyrocketed in recent months, with border agents making more than 100,000 arrests or denials of entry in March, a 12-year high. Immigration courts that process asylum claims currently have faced a backlog of more than 800,000 cases and asylum applicants increasingly have been staying in the U.S. even after their claims for asylum have been denied.

More than 4,000 individuals have been apprehended at the border with children who are not their own in recent months, administration officials tell Fox News.

And, Customs and Border Protection said it apprehended or turned away over 109,000 migrants attempting to cross the border in April, the second month in a row the number has topped 100,000.

In a dramatic moment, more than 1,000 illegal immigrants were apprehended by border agents near the U.S.-Mexico border early Wednesday -- the largest ever group of migrants ever apprehended at a single time, sources told Fox News on Thursday. The group of 1,036 illegal immigrants found in the El Paso sector included migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, according to sources.

Trump tweeted a video of the episode on Thursday, with the note: “Democrats need to stand by our incredible Border Patrol and finally fix the loopholes at our Border!”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

A top Border Patrol official told lawmakers in April that authorities have apprehended more families illegally crossing the border between October 2018 and February of this year than during all of the 2018 fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2017-Sept. 30, 2018).

"Much media attention has focused on caravans coming across from Central America," Rio Grande Valley (RGV) Sector Chief Patrol Agent Rodolfo Karisch told the Senate Homeland Security Committee. "But, the fact is that RGV is receiving caravan-equivalent numbers every seven days."

Fox News' John Roberts and Edward Lawrence contributed to this report.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-mexico-tariffs-escalating-illegal-immigrants-stop

2019-05-31 14:15:06Z
52780305674640

Why Mexico is so important to the American auto industry - CNN

Every American auto factory depends on Mexican parts to build its cars or trucks. That's why President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Mexican imports of up to 25% by October is rattling the US auto industry. The tariffs could raise costs in the United States by tens of billions of dollars in the auto industry alone.
Car buyers would probably pay the cost of those tariffs.
"We believe the tariffs on vehicles would undoubtedly be passed on to consumers, which would raise the price of vehicles sold in the US by an average of about $1,300," wrote Emmanuel Rosner, auto analyst for Deutsche Bank.
That price increase would hurt demand for cars, perhaps cutting US auto production by as much as 3 million vehicles a year, an 18% drop from current levels, Rosner estimates.
If that happened, it would be the greatest blow to the US auto industry since the Great Recession sent the industry hurling toward near collapse 10 years ago.
The industry imported $59.4 billion in parts from Mexico last year, according to US government trade data. That includes parts used in factories and those sold in auto parts stores and repair shops.
Mexico is by far the largest foreign source of parts used by the industry. About 16% of all auto parts used by US assembly plants come from Mexico, according to an estimate from the Center for Automotive Research, a leading industry think tank.
Dow set to fall 300 points on Mexican tariffs
Automakers can't easily shift to other suppliers to avoid using parts from Mexico. Mexican parts suppliers specialize in providing low-cost, labor-intensive components, which don't make economic sense to build elsewhere, said Kristin Dziczek, vice president of industry, labor and economics at the center.
For example, 70% of wire harnesses, the collection of wires that carry power throughout a vehicle, come from Mexico. Few if any wire harnesses are made in the United States. Much of the rest of the harnesses arrive at the US-Mexican border from countries south of Mexico.
"It's one of the first pieces you install when you're assembling a car," she said in April when Trump was threatening to close the border with Mexico altogether. Such a move would have shut the entire US auto industry within a week, she estimated.
"You can't build the whole car and slap the wire harness in later. This is a big critical part that shuts down the assembly line if you don't have it."
Finished cars and trucks also come into the United States from Mexico — about 2.7 million autos were imported from Mexico last year, worth $52 billion, according to the US Commerce Department. That's nearly a million more autos than came from Japan, the No. 2 source of auto imports.
A 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico would add about $28 billion a year to the cost of completed vehicles and parts.
Automakers are strong supporters of the new trade deal that the Trump administration negotiated with Mexico and Canada designed to replace NAFTA. That trade agreement, the US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), would continue to allow most auto parts and vehicles to cross the border in both directions without tariffs. But it needs Congressional ratification before it takes effect.
The USMCA "relies on duty-free access to be successful. The imposition of tariffs against Mexico will undermine its positive impact and would impose significant cost on the US auto industry," said Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council, an industry group representing GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler.
The US auto industry is already struggling with increased costs because of the Trump administration's tariffs on steel and aluminum. Both General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have estimated that rising commodity prices from those tariffs have raised their costs by more than $1 billion each.
The entire industry has been trying to cut costs to free up cash for the expensive research and development challenge of developing the next generation of electric and self-driving cars. That is the reason GM cited for its plans to close four US factories this year.
That means automakers probably wouldn't assume the cost of the tariffs. Instead, they would pass them onto consumers. That could hurt American auto sales and cost additional jobs in the United States. Last year, GM warned that a proposal to put tariffs on all cars and auto parts imports from around the world would lead it and other automakers to cut US jobs.
Trump erupts over immigration, threatening Mexico with tariffs
Costs would rise even further if Mexico responds by imposing tariffs of its own on American goods. That would be a double blow to the US auto industry, because Mexico is a major market for both its cars and its parts.
Mexico bought 140,600 cars from the US last year, about 8% of all car exports, making it the fourth largest market behind Canada, China and Germany, according to the US Commerce Department. Those cars cost $3.3 billion.
More importantly, US parts makers shipped another $32.5 billion worth of parts to Mexico, mostly to use in Mexican auto plants.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/31/business/mexico-tariffs-auto-industry/index.html

2019-05-31 13:33:00Z
52780305674640

China threatens to blacklist foreign companies after Huawei ban - CNN

The Chinese government is working to establish an "unreliable entity list" which would include foreign companies, individuals and organizations, according to a statement Friday from China's Commerce Ministry.
Companies that violate market rules will be added to the list, according to the statement. Other targets include firms that block supplies to Chinese companies for "non-commercial reasons" or otherwise damage their interests.
The exact details of the plan will be announced soon, the statement added.
The move to establish a blacklist comes after the United States hit Huawei with an export ban, effectively barring US companies from doing business with the smartphone and telecom equipment maker.
The Trump administration claims that Huawei equipment can be used by China for spying. Huawei has repeatedly denied that it poses a risk, saying the restrictions are an attempt to put it out of business.

Huawei fight

The US campaign against Huawei, one of China's most powerful tech companies, reached new heights earlier this month when the Trump administration added it to a list of companies said to undermine American interests.
That forced crucial suppliers like Google (GOOG) and ARM Holdings to cut ties with the Chinese company, while top carriers in the United Kingdom and Japan delayed the launch of Huawei smartphones.
For Huawei, which had aimed to become the top smartphone brand globally by the end of 2020, the ban could pose an existential threat.
Huawei bought $70 billion worth of components and parts last year from 13,000 suppliers. Of that, about $11 billion was spent on products from US businesses including Qualcomm (QCOM), Broadcom (AVGO) and Microsoft (MSFT).
Analysts had predicted that China could target US businesses as a result of the Huawei ban. Trust between the United States and China is running low as new rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs go into effect.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/31/business/china-entity-list-huawei/index.html

2019-05-31 12:40:00Z
52780306786161

China threatens to blacklist foreign companies after Huawei ban - CNN

The Chinese government is working to establish an "unreliable entity list" which would include foreign companies, individuals and organizations, according to a statement Friday from China's Commerce Ministry.
Companies that violate market rules will be added to the list, according to the statement. Other targets include firms that block supplies to Chinese companies for "non-commercial reasons" or otherwise damage their interests.
The exact details of the plan will be announced soon, the statement added.
The move to establish a blacklist comes after the United States hit Huawei with an export ban, effectively barring US companies from doing business with the smartphone and telecom equipment maker.
The Trump administration claims that Huawei equipment can be used by China for spying. Huawei has repeatedly denied that it poses a risk, saying the restrictions are an attempt to put it out of business.

Huawei fight

The US campaign against Huawei, one of China's most powerful tech companies, reached new heights earlier this month when the Trump administration added it to a list of companies said to undermine American interests.
That forced crucial suppliers like Google (GOOG) and ARM Holdings to cut ties with the Chinese company, while top carriers in the United Kingdom and Japan delayed the launch of Huawei smartphones.
For Huawei, which had aimed to become the top smartphone brand globally by the end of 2020, the ban could pose an existential threat.
Huawei bought $70 billion worth of components and parts last year from 13,000 suppliers. Of that, about $11 billion was spent on products from US businesses including Qualcomm (QCOM), Broadcom (AVGO) and Microsoft (MSFT).
Analysts had predicted that China could target US businesses as a result of the Huawei ban. Trust between the United States and China is running low as new rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs go into effect.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/31/business/china-entity-list-huawei/index.html

2019-05-31 11:43:00Z
52780306786161

North Korea executes 5 officials over failed Kim-Trump summit: South Korean media - Fox News

North Korea has executed five officials for their part in the failed second summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, according to a South Korean newspaper.

Kim Hyok Chol, North Korea's special envoy to the U.S., was executed by firing squad in March for being "won over by the American imperialists to betray the supreme leader", according to the Chosun Ilbo.

The paper also claimed that four other North Korean Foreign Ministry officials were executed that same month because of the breakdown of the February summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, but did not provide details.

JAMES CARAFANO: TRUMP AND KIM - WHAT'S REALLY GOING ON? LET'S HANDICAP NEXT STEPS WITH NORTH KOREA

Kim Hyok Chol, North Korea's special envoy to the U.S., and four other North Korean foreign ministry officials, were executed because of the breakdown of the February North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. (REUTERS, File)

Kim Hyok Chol, North Korea's special envoy to the U.S., and four other North Korean foreign ministry officials, were executed because of the breakdown of the February North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. (REUTERS, File)

Seoul's spy service said it could not confirm the report, while the presidential Blue House said that "it's inappropriate to make hasty judgments or comments."

Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, told reporters in Berlin that he had seen the reports and the U.S. was "doing our best to check it out."

JOY BEHAR LIKENS TRUMP TO A 'MOBSTER' AFTER 'DISGRACEFUL' COMMENTS ABOUT BIDEN AND NORTH KOREA

Trump’s much-anticipated summit with Kim ended abruptly and without the two leaders signing any agreements over nuclear disarmament.

Kim aide Kim Yong Chol is reportedly undergoing hard labor for his role in the breakdown. (REUTERS, File)

Kim aide Kim Yong Chol is reportedly undergoing hard labor for his role in the breakdown. (REUTERS, File)

Top Kim aide Kim Yong Chol is reportedly undergoing hard labor for his role in the breakdown.

He had been Kim’s most trusted policy adviser and was removed from one of his posts.

President Trump meeting with Kim Yong Chol this past January 18 in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo)

President Trump meeting with Kim Yong Chol this past January 18 in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo)

He even was seen in photos with President Trump at the White House over the past year, delivering letters from the North Korean dictator.

CLICK TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Kim Yong Chol has been North Korea’s top nuclear negotiator and the counterpart of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo since Kim entered nuclear talks with the U.S. early last year.

Since the Hanoi nuclear summit between Trump and Kim ended in failure, North Korea has again tested weapons and boosted its belligerent rhetoric toward American and South Korean officials.

Fox News' Bradford Betz and the Associated Press contributed to this story.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.foxnews.com/world/north-korea-executes-5-officials-over-failed-kim-trump-summit-south-korean-media

2019-05-31 11:09:59Z
52780306446645

The Latest: Murky waters impair recovery of boat in Hungary - Fox News

The Latest on rescue efforts following the capsizing of a boat in Budapest (all times local):

12:20 p.m.

Hungary's foreign minister says underwater visibility at the site in the Danube River where the sunken tour boat is located is "practically zero," complicating efforts to salvage the wreck.

Peter Szijjarto said Friday after meeting his South Korean counterpart, Kang Kyung-wha, that the wreckage is more than 6 meters (20 feet) under water, with the Danube expected to keep rising because of rainfall.

Twenty-one people, including 19 South Koreans, are still missing after Wednesday's collision. Seven people were rescued and seven are confirmed dead.

Szijjarto and Kang visited the site of the mishap, near the Hungarian parliament, before holding talks at the Foreign Ministry.

One of the bodies recovered was found nearly 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) downstream, nearly 2-½ hours after the collision.

___

9 a.m.

Hungarian police have detained the captain of a cruise ship that collided with a sightseeing boat packed with South Korean tourists, causing it to sink quickly in the Danube River.

That development came as loved ones of the South Korean people who are missing and dead were expected to arrive Friday in Budapest.

Seven people are confirmed dead and seven have been rescued, while 21 people remain missing in the waters.

A South Korean group on a package tour of Europe — including 30 tourists, two guides and a photographer— were on an hour-long sightseeing tour of Budapest when their boat collided with a Viking cruise ship during a downpour Wednesday evening.

Nineteen South Koreans and two Hungarian crew members — the captain and his assistant — remain missing.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.foxnews.com/world/the-latest-murky-waters-impair-recovery-of-boat-in-hungary

2019-05-31 10:55:11Z
52780305819671

Survivors recall chaos as tour boat sank on Danube in Budapest - NBC News

Breaking News Emails

Get breaking news alerts and special reports. The news and stories that matter, delivered weekday mornings.

SUBSCRIBE

 / Updated 

By Associated Press

SEOUL, South Korea — Survivors of a tour boat which sank in the Danube River in Budapest say they barely managed to grab onto a drifting lifeboat while watching in horror as others around them struggled and shouted for help in the dark, rainy waters.

Only seven of the 35 people on the boat, including 33 South Koreans, were rescued. Seven others have been confirmed dead and 21 are missing.

Survivors said the small sightseeing boat had almost finished an hourlong night tour of the Hungarian capital on Wednesday and was nearly at its stop when a larger cruise ship hit it under a bridge. They said about 20 people were on the deck taking photographs or preparing to disembark. The others were in the cabin.

"I saw that big cruise ship coming closer to us but I never imagined it would ram our boat," a South Korean surnamed Jeong was quoted as saying by the Yonhap news agency.

Jeong, 31, said she and others on the deck were thrown into the cold Danube waters by the impact of the collision. Police said it took only seven seconds for the boat to overturn and sink.

She said she saw a lifeboat drifting near her and managed to get hold of it. She threw a rope to another South Korean tourist surnamed Yoon, who was near her.

"Our boat was turned over in an instant and began sinking," Yoon, 32, told Yonhap. "All those on the deck fell into water and I think those staying in the cabin on the first floor probably couldn't get out of the ship swiftly."

Candles and flowers are left under the Margaret Bridge in Budapest, Hungary, near where a tour boat sank.Zoltan Balogh / AP

While holding onto the lifeboat together, Jeong and Yoon said they shed tears when they saw the heads of other people coming up and down in the fast-moving river.

"The people had been plunged into the river in the darkness and shouted, 'Help me!' while floundering in the waters. But I couldn't do anything for them," Jeong said, crying.

Another survivor surnamed Ahn, 60, said a crew member of another sightseeing boat sailing nearby extended a hand to him after he was tossed into the river. But he lost his grip and was carried away by waters before he got hold of a drifting plastic object.

May 30, 201901:04

Yoon said she saw the cruise ship that rammed her boat keep sailing without stopping to help with the rescue after the collision.

Police launched a criminal investigation and detained and questioned the Ukrainian captain of the cruise ship late Thursday. The 64-year-old man is suspected of endangering water transport leading to a deadly mass accident.

Hungary's state TV reported that all of the seven rescued people have been released from the hospital except one who is being treated for broken ribs.

Thirty South Korean tourists were aboard the sightseeing boat along with two South Korean guides and a photographer. Two Hungarian crew members are among the 21 missing.

It was still unclear what exactly caused the collision. A preliminary investigation showed that none of the South Koreans were wearing life jackets at the time of the accident.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/survivors-recall-chaos-tour-boat-sank-danube-budapest-n1012326

2019-05-31 10:09:00Z
52780305819671

North Korea executes U.S. nuclear envoy after failed Trump summit: report - USA TODAY

North Korea executed its special nuclear envoy to the United States as part of a purge of senior officials over the failed summit between leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump, South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper claimed Friday. 

Kim Hyok Chol was executed by firing squad in March along with four other foreign ministry officials, the paper reported, citing an unidentified North Korean source.

North Korea neither confirmed nor denied the report. South Korea's government was not able to confirm the claim. Previous media reports about the fate of North Korean officials who have fallen afoul of Pyongyang's leader have proven to be false.  

Trump's North Korea diplomacy: It looks troubled. It may not mean war

Chosun Ilbo reported Kim Hyok Chol and the other senior officials were shot after being accused of spying for the United States. The paper reported Kim Jong Un ordered the purge amid mounting dissatisfaction with the summit in Hanoi – the second time Kim and Trump met for face-to-face talks. In Vietnam, they failed to reach a deal because of conflicts over the White House's call for complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and North Korean demands for sanctions relief.

Since then, amid a diplomatic standoff between Pyongyang and Washington, North Korea has resumed testing short-range ballistic missiles, ending a pause in launches that began in late 2017. The tests are viewed as a way for Kim to pressure Trump to ease sanctions without actually causing negotiations to collapse.

There was no immediate reaction to Chosun Ilbo's report from the White House.

"North Korea fired off some small weapons, which disturbed some of my people, and others, but not me," Trump tweeted during a recent trip to Japan. 

Diplomacy?: Bolton says latest North Korea missile test violates U.N. resolution

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/05/31/north-korea-executes-senior-officials-over-failed-trump-summit-report/1296383001/

2019-05-31 07:37:00Z
52780306446645

John Negroponte: Trump's new tariff on Mexico is 'bad politically and bad economically' - CNBC

A widely followed former American diplomat questioned on Friday whether President Donald Trump was adopting the right strategy by threatening Mexico with a new tariff because of immigration issues.

Trump announced Thursday that his country plans to impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10. In a statement, he attributed that unexpected move to a "border crisis" that has resulted in America being "invaded by hundreds of thousands of people." He even suggested that he could raise the tariff on Mexico's goods to 25% by Oct. 1 this year if the country did not sufficiently halt the flow of migrants into the U.S.

Speaking with CNBC's "Street Signs" on Thursday evening U.S. time, John Negroponte questioned whether Trump's move would have the desired effect.

"I think it's both bad politically and bad economically and I don't think it's really going to help solve the immigration problem, either, which is what Mr. Trump said he's trying to attack," said Negroponte, current vice chairman of consultancy McLarty Associates and formerly U.S. ambassador to Honduras, Mexico, the Philippines, the United Nations, and Iraq.

Mexico, for its part, has said it would not respond well to economic threats.

In a letter addressed to Trump, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said he did not want confrontation, and that leaders have a responsibility to seek peaceful solutions to controversies.

John Negroponte on July 17, 2018 in Bogota, Colombia.

Gabriel Aponte | Getty Images

"President Trump: Social problems cannot be resolved with taxes or coercive measures," the Mexican leader wrote.

Negroponte told CNBC he agreed with that sentiment. Still, he said, perhaps now is the time that Washington and Mexico City can come together on the issue. 

In fact, in his letter to Trump, López Obrador requested that U.S. and Mexican officials begin meeting on Friday to discuss how to "reach an agreement for the benefit of both nations."

Even from a domestic politics standpoint, Trump may have overplayed his hand with the new tariff threat.

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, a Republican who represents Iowa, slammed the move. He called it a "misuse of presidential tariff authority."

"Trade policy and border security are separate issues," Grassley said in a statement following the Trump's announcement. "Following through on this threat would seriously jeopardize passage of USMCA, a central campaign pledge of President Trump's and what could be a big victory for the country," he warned.

The USMCA refers to the new trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada, which lawmakers had yet to approve. Several experts suggested that the deal, an updated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement, could now face real difficulties getting passed.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/john-negroponte-trump-tariff-on-mexico-bad-politically-economically.html

2019-05-31 05:28:23Z
52780305674640

Kamis, 30 Mei 2019

Here's why China's trade war threat to restrict rare earth minerals is so serious - CNBC

Miners are seen at the Bayan Obo mine containing rare earth minerals, in Inner Mongolia, China July 16, 2011.

Stringer | Reuters

Rare earth minerals are a suite of 17 elements mineable in the earth's crust, with names such as cerium, europium and lutetium. They are commonly used in everything from car motors and electronics to oil refining and clean diesel to many major weapons systems the U.S. relies on for national security, including lasers and radar.

About 35% of rare earth global reserves are in China, the most in the world, and the country is a mining machine, producing 120,000 metric tons or 70% of total rare earths in 2018, according to the United States Geological Survey. The U.S. pales in comparison as it mined 15,000 metric tons of rare earths in 2018 and has a total of 1.4 million metric tons of reserves, versus China's 44 million.

U.S. consumption of rare earth compounds and metals relies heavily on imports, which rose to $160 million in 2018, according to USGS. Eighty percent were from China. To make it worse, although other countries supply to the U.S. including Estonia (6%), France (3%) and Japan (3%), much of their materials were derived from mineral concentrates and chemical substances produced in China, according to Hui Shan, commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs.

"The U.S.' reliance on Chinese supply may be higher than the import breakdown data suggest on the surface," Shan said in a note on Wednesday.

Given U.S. dependence on Chinese supply, the threat of a restriction could hurt many industries including high-tech devices, automotives, clean energy and defense. An example is the element lanthanum.

"The glass industry is the largest consumer of rare earths. For example, lanthanum makes up as much as 50% of digital camera lenses, including cell phone cameras. Hybrid electric cars use significant amounts of lanthanum in its batteries – 10-15 kilograms per vehicle," said Michael Widmer, metals strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note.

"Dangerous interaction"

Rare earth materials are also crucial to the U.S. defense systems because of their usage in lasers, radar, sonar, night vision systems, missile guidance, jet engines, and even alloys for armored vehicles, all of which the U.S. relies upon for national security.

The Pentagon on Wednesday presented a report to Congress on rare earth minerals in an effort to reduce reliance on China. The move came after the Chinese newspaper People's Daily warned it would cut off the rare earth supply, saying "don't say we didn't warn you. "

In a 2018 report by the Department of Defense, China's domination of rare earth elements was highlighted as it shows "the potentially dangerous interaction between Chinese economic aggression guided by its strategic industrial policies and vulnerabilities and gaps in America's manufacturing and defense industrial base."

"China has strategically flooded the global market with rare earths at subsidized prices, driven out competitors, and deterred new market entrants," the report said.

Non-Chinese suppliers

While China remains a dominant player in the rare earth market, production outside of the country is also growing, which could provide the U.S. with some alternatives, according to Credit Suisse.

Non-Chinese production has grown to about 29% of the global production from just 3% in 2009, said Manish Nigam, Credit Suisse's equity analyst said in a note on Thursday.

"A U.S. facility is under a revival plan since last year, and the fully operational Australian/ Malaysian venture (Lynas) has a production capacity that is more than the entire demand of the U.S., though processing of some oxides still gets done in China," Nigam said.

The impact of an export ban would be somewhat diffused across different U.S. sectors and countries, Nigam said, noting that electric vehicles and clean energy would be impacted the most.

Still, any escalation at this point poses a threat to the market as stocks continue to suffer amid the tit-for-tat strategies in the trade war. The S&P 500 is down 5.4% in May, on track to post its first negative month of the year.

"The effect of China restricting its rare earth exports to the US could have a much larger impact on the broader market this time around because of the ongoing US-China trade war," said Goldman's Shan. "Investors probably would expect further retaliations from the US and risk assets such as copper could face even more headwinds than it is currently under."

— CNBC's John Schoen and Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/30/heres-why-chinas-trade-war-threat-to-restrict-rare-earth-minerals-is-so-serious.html

2019-05-30 17:37:35Z
52780304998936

Here's why China's trade war threat to restrict rare earth minerals is so serious - CNBC

Miners are seen at the Bayan Obo mine containing rare earth minerals, in Inner Mongolia, China July 16, 2011.

Stringer | Reuters

Rare earth minerals are a suite of 17 elements mineable in the earth's crust, with names such as cerium, europium and lutetium. They are commonly used in everything from car motors and electronics to oil refining and clean diesel to many major weapons systems the U.S. relies on for national security, including lasers and radar.

About 35% of rare earth global reserves are in China, the most in the world, and the country is a mining machine, producing 120,000 metric tons or 70% of total rare earths in 2018, according to the United States Geological Survey. The U.S. pales in comparison as it mined 15,000 metric tons of rare earths in 2018 and has a total of 1.4 million metric tons of reserves, versus China's 44 million.

U.S. consumption of rare earth compounds and metals relies heavily on imports, which rose to $160 million in 2018, according to USGS. Eighty percent were from China. To make it worse, although other countries supply to the U.S. including Estonia (6%), France (3%) and Japan (3%), much of their materials were derived from mineral concentrates and chemical substances produced in China, according to Hui Shan, commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs.

"The U.S.' reliance on Chinese supply may be higher than the import breakdown data suggest on the surface," Shan said in a note on Wednesday.

Given U.S. dependence on Chinese supply, the threat of a restriction could hurt many industries including high-tech devices, automotives, clean energy and defense. An example is the element lanthanum.

"The glass industry is the largest consumer of rare earths. For example, lanthanum makes up as much as 50% of digital camera lenses, including cell phone cameras. Hybrid electric cars use significant amounts of lanthanum in its batteries – 10-15 kilograms per vehicle," said Michael Widmer, metals strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note.

"Dangerous interaction"

Rare earth materials are also crucial to the U.S. defense systems because of their usage in lasers, radar, sonar, night vision systems, missile guidance, jet engines, and even alloys for armored vehicles, all of which the U.S. relies upon for national security.

The Pentagon on Wednesday presented a report to Congress on rare earth minerals in an effort to reduce reliance on China. The move came after the Chinese newspaper People's Daily warned it would cut off the rare earth supply, saying "don't say we didn't warn you. "

In a 2018 report by the Department of Defense, China's domination of rare earth elements was highlighted as it shows "the potentially dangerous interaction between Chinese economic aggression guided by its strategic industrial policies and vulnerabilities and gaps in America's manufacturing and defense industrial base."

"China has strategically flooded the global market with rare earths at subsidized prices, driven out competitors, and deterred new market entrants," the report said.

Non-Chinese suppliers

While China remains a dominant player in the rare earth market, production outside of the country is also growing, which could provide the U.S. with some alternatives, according to Credit Suisse.

Non-Chinese production has grown to about 29% of the global production from just 3% in 2009, said Manish Nigam, Credit Suisse's equity analyst said in a note on Thursday.

"A U.S. facility is under a revival plan since last year, and the fully operational Australian/ Malaysian venture (Lynas) has a production capacity that is more than the entire demand of the U.S., though processing of some oxides still gets done in China," Nigam said.

The impact of an export ban would be somewhat diffused across different U.S. sectors and countries, Nigam said, noting that electric vehicles and clean energy would be impacted the most.

Still, any escalation at this point poses a threat to the market as stocks continue to suffer amid the tit-for-tat strategies in the trade war. The S&P 500 is down 5.4% in May, on track to post its first negative month of the year.

"The effect of China restricting its rare earth exports to the US could have a much larger impact on the broader market this time around because of the ongoing US-China trade war," said Goldman's Shan. "Investors probably would expect further retaliations from the US and risk assets such as copper could face even more headwinds than it is currently under."

— CNBC's John Schoen and Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/30/heres-why-chinas-trade-war-threat-to-restrict-rare-earth-minerals-is-so-serious.html

2019-05-30 17:36:31Z
52780304998936