Indonesia Elections 2024: Pollsters see Prabowo first-round knockout, but analysts say Anies, Ganjar still in the fight - CNA

Ganjar-Mahfud campaign team leader Arsjad Rasjid was quoted by Kompas as saying that the people’s voice will be heard on polling day, and not in surveys.

“We also hope that the outcome is a fair, truthful and factual one that follows the democratic process,” he said, reiterating that state apparatus should remain neutral during the hustings.

This comes amid allegations that President Joko Widodo has allowed the deployment of public officers to support Mr Prabowo's campaign and undermine that of his rivals, sparking protests from various groups. 

Jokowi, as the popular president is widely known, previously said the head of state is legally allowed to campaign, but on Wednesday told reporters he will not be doing so.

NOT IN THE BAG YET

Dr Ian Wilson, a senior fellow at Murdoch University’s Indo-Pacific Research Centre, told CNA he was wary of the latest Indikator Politik survey as it uses multistage sampling of 1,000 people.

In multistage sampling, a target population is first defined before being divided into smaller and smaller clusters until a desired sample size is achieved.

This method is often used to collect data from a large, geographically spread group of people in national surveys as it is cheaper and easier to conduct, although not the most representative.

“I'm very sceptical of accurate extrapolation using this sample size and method for a voting population of 204 million, especially when everything is so dynamic,” Dr Wilson said.

The analyst said the Prabowo campaign team would at this point have hoped for a convincing first round win “in the bag”, especially with Jokowi seen to be more overtly campaigning over the past few days.

Jokowi has been spotted dining privately with Mr Prabowo on recent occasions and has been accused of mobilising social aid programs to shore up support for the current Defence Minister.

“I think now many of them (in Prabowo’s campaign) are coming to the conclusion that it's probably going to go to a second round,” Dr Wilson added.

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2024-02-10 22:00:00Z
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Indonesia Elections 2024: Song, dance, speeches mark last campaigning day as presidential candidates go for broke - CNA

A SEA OF BLUE IN CENTRAL JAKARTA

Over in downtown Jakarta, the Gelora Bung Karno turned into a sea of light blue, the colour worn by supporters of the front runner, Mr Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Mr Gibran Rakabuming Raka. 

Thousands of supporters had been flocking to the 1.7 hectare sports complex since early morning, waiting patiently for hours for their candidate's final rally to start. 

By 11am, the arena's main stadium, where the rally was held, was at its full 77,000 spectator capacity.

But thousands of supporters continued to turn up as the day progressed, arriving in private vehicles, buses and MRT. 

Some tried to force their way in and engaged in a war of words with security guards manning the gates who tried to explain to the supporters that the stadium was full and could not accommodate them.

Nearby shopping malls were also full of Prabowo-Gibran fans looking to escape the heat, while die-hard supporters stayed on at the complex, enjoying the rally from afar through a series of giant LCD screens erected around the stadium.

One of them is housewife Hestiana Safitri, 51, who had to travel for two hours from Bekasi city, on the outskirts of Jakarta to get to the stadium only to be disappointed for not being able to enter the stadium and see her candidate of choice in person. 

"I have been a Prabowo supporter since 2019. I admire his tenacity. He tried and tried again because I believe that he sincerely wants to lead Indonesia for the better," she told CNA. 

"2014 and 2019 were not yet his time (to become president), but I believe his time is now,” she said, referring to the years when Mr Prabowo also ran as president but failed.

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2024-02-10 12:53:00Z
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Israel prepares assault on Rafah; seeks to allay fears of 'bloodbath' - CNA

GAZAN CHILDREN ACUTELY MALNOURISHED

Gaza's health ministry said at least 27,947 Palestinians had been confirmed killed in the conflict, 107 of them in the previous 24 hours, and 67,459 injured.

It has said many more could be buried under rubble from Israeli attacks since Hamas militants killed 1,200 people and took 253 hostages in the Oct 7 attack, according to Israeli tallies.

Almost one in 10 of Gazans under five are now acutely malnourished, according to initial UN data from arm measurements that show physical wasting.

The charity ActionAid said some Gazans were eating grass.

"Every single person in Gaza is now hungry, and people have just 1.5 to 2 litres of unsafe water per day to meet all their needs," it said.

Hours before Netanyahu's statement, Israeli warplanes carried out new sorties in which Palestinian health officials said at least 15 people had been killed, eight of them in the Rafah area.

"We were sleeping inside and, when the strike hit, were thrown outside. After that, another rocket hit," said Mohammed al-Nahal, an elderly Palestinian standing beside the rubble of a building that had been hit."It destroyed the entire home. My daughter was killed. My daughter, her husband, her son, all were martyred."

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2024-02-09 20:50:10Z
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What is the state of Indonesia's economy heading into elections? - CNA

INDONESIA’S NICKEL POLICY

The nickel boom comes on the back of President Joko Widodo's resource nationalism push.

Indonesia has the world's biggest reserves of nickel but exports of the metal were banned in 2020 to capture more of their value. 

The so-called “commodity downstreaming”, where natural commodities are processed onshore, is a bid to establish more domestic smelters and produce more nickel products instead of just exporting raw nickel.

Nickel is used in the making of stainless steel or batteries.

Outgoing shipments of nickel products hit US$30 billion in 2022, more than 10 times what they were in 2013, boosted by demand for batteries used in electronic vehicles (EVs). 

JOKOWI’S LEGACY

The last decade saw numerous structural reforms and changes that improved the Indonesian economy, said Ms Pranjul Bhandari, chief economist of India and Indonesia at HSBC.

In addition to the nickel policy, Mr Jokowi’s onimbus law that aimed to attract investments and create jobs, as well as mega infrastructure projects, could become part of his legacy. 

Nusantara, the nation’s planned new capital in East Kalimantan, also attracted more than US$2.6 billion worth of investment last year.

Ms Bhandari said manifestos from the main parties contesting in the election look set to continue with the current administration’s economic policies.

“Almost all the presidential hopefuls are supportive of the downstreaming strategy. Many other laws, for example the omnibus law, has now been enshrined so those benefits will continue to see the light of the day,” she said.

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2024-02-09 11:38:00Z
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Indonesia candidates turn to K-pop to pull votes - CNA

JAKARTA: Indonesia holds its presidential election on Wednesday (Feb 14) but candidates are looking to another country's export to win votes - K-pop, the South Korean sensation that has swept much of the world.

At an event held by young volunteers for candidate Anies Baswedan in the capital Jakarta, die-hard K-pop fans had photoshopped his face with sunglasses on merchandise fashioning him in the style of a South Korean pop star.

In Indonesia, megastars BTS and other K-pop groups are extremely popular, giving politicians another route to appeal to young people. Millennials and Gen Zers make up more than half of the country's electorate.

Hundreds gathered in a noisy crowd on Thursday evening, some holding posters, paper fans and stickers emblazoned with Baswedan's face in a K-pop style.

"It is funny, very contemporary," said tax analyst Nurul Hidayah, a supporter of Baswedan.

"Usually the campaign materials are old-fashioned, too boring. But this is very fun."

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2024-02-09 09:32:22Z
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Malaysia's top court declares several Islamic laws in Kelantan state unconstitutional - CNA

Kelantan, which lies just south of Thailand in Malaysia's north, is governed by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) which has advocated for a stricter interpretation of Islamic law.

PAS has seen increased popularity in recent years amid growing Islamic conservatism among Malaysia's majority ethnic Malay Muslims, and is seen as a challenge for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's multi-ethnic ruling coalition. PAS holds more seats in parliament than any other party.

The constitutional challenge was filed by a Kelantanese lawyer and her daughter against laws covering Syariah offences that were passed by the state and came into force in 2021.

The case has sparked uproar among some conservative Muslim groups, who fear the challenge could undermine Islam or the Syariah courts in Malaysia.

Security was tight around the court complex in Malaysia's administrative capital, Putrajaya, as about 1,000 demonstrators gathered outside to protest the case. They prayed and chanted "God is great" as the judgement was delivered.

Justice Tengku Maimun said the case did not have anything to do with the position of Islam in the country, only on whether the Kelantan legislature had acted beyond its powers.

"Seen from this position, the issue of the civil court not upholding Islam or the Syariah courts does not arise," she said.

After the judgement, Religious Affairs Minister Mohd Na'im Mokhtar said in a statement the government's Islamic authorities would take immediate steps to strengthen Syariah courts, adding that the Islamic judiciary remained protected under the federal constitution.

Kelantan government official Mohamed Fazli Hassan expressed disappointment with the ruling, saying the state would consult with its royal ruler, Sultan Muhammad V, on the decision and further matters of Islamic law. Nine of Malaysia’s 13 states are headed by monarchs who act as the guardians of Islam.

Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod, a law professor at Malaysia-based Taylor's University, said Friday's decision could have a "domino effect" with Syariah laws in other states likely to see similar challenges.

"There is a need to rewind and reconsider the existing states’ jurisdiction on Islamic law," he said, adding that Malaysia's constitution should be amended to avoid conflicts between Syariah and civil laws.

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2024-02-09 02:04:24Z
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Are young women more woke than their male peers? In Singapore, it's not so clear-cut - CNA

SINGAPORE: Women are “more susceptible to believing in the woke side of things”. That’s what Mr Ng, a 30-year-old Singaporean who only wanted to be known by his surname, believes.

The finance executive identifies as politically conservative. “I guess the left has gone so far left that anyone in the moderate spectrum becomes conservative,” he told CNA.

For a few years now, Mr Ng has regularly got his news from, in his own words, “conspiracy theorists” like Alex Jones, the US far-right media personality and owner of the InfoWars fake news website.

Some of his views are influenced by the preoccupations of US politics. For example, he believes that allowing children to transition to another gender before they reach adulthood is “child abuse”.

He also holds opinions that are outright controversial in Singapore. He thinks the COVID-19 vaccine is dangerous and should not be taken, and that people should have the freedom to say that without being censored.

Mr Ng has noticed that among his friends – most of whom are male – the men are more likely to share his views than the women.

He belongs to a reportedly growing group of young men around the world who align with right-wing, more conservative worldviews. And they are veering away from female peers who are trending in the opposite direction towards left-wing, more liberal worldviews.

This is opening a “dramatic” ideological gap between young men and women – a “new global gender divide”,  according to the Financial Times in January.

And it upends a well-established pattern that “every generation tends to move as one in terms of its politics and general ideology”.

“Gen Z is two generations, not one,” said the British paper, citing data from South Korea, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom and the United States.

In Singapore, despite the views held by Mr Ng and some other young people interviewed by CNA, studies of the wider population show that this global gender divide does not seem to be prevalent here.

Instead, the picture is mixed. One researcher even said the trend of young women being more liberal could be the reverse in Singapore.

What the surveys do show, however, are some gender differences in views on issues like racism, marriage and parenthood – which can in turn inform political beliefs.

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2024-02-08 22:00:00Z
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