France's election upset, explained - CNA

Macron could decide who to form a government with, but it'll be subject to a confidence vote in the National Assembly.

Hence, it needs to be someone a majority of lawmakers can agree with.

Analysts said Macron was likely to try and form a centre-left coalition, but without the hard-left LFI. However, this would require the NFP to break up. For now, it remains unclear if the alliance will stay united and agree on what course to take. `

Amid this political gridlock, none of the three parties will be able to deliver their campaign promises, said experts.

This includes vows to the European Union that France will take control of its debt and deficit, said Nestorovic.

“If it's Macron's centrist party with its own coalition, we can expect to have a similar policy as in the past, but right now we don't know who is going to rule,” he said.

“The leftist coalition (wants) to fully apply their own programme. But I cannot imagine that Macron’s party, or those from the centre or right, will agree. If there’s a majority, they can deliver … but I don't think that will happen in reality.”

He added that while there was “huge uncertainty” at the moment, things will become clearer in weeks to come as the new Assembly finds some structure, and negotiations begin.

What does it mean for the wider far-right movement?

Analysts said results indicated the French’s determination to keep the far-right out of government, even at the cost of a hung parliament.

But at the same time, this doesn't discount fears of a far-right resurgence in Europe.

Across the continent, there have been breakthroughs by right-leaning nationalist and conservative parties in recent polls.

Last week in the UK, a left-leaning party won by a huge majority but some ground was also ceded to a hard-right faction.

Six out of 27 EU nations have far-right parties in government.

Perhaps most prominently, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) – which wants to curb immigration – has been gaining traction in German politics.

Moyer said that with the centre and left splitting votes, the far-right could continue to make gains.

“We are seeing a wave of far-right nationalism rising across Europe, with a larger than expected turnout of people supporting these parties,” he said.

“With this vacuum that exists, this is an opportunity for these populist leaders to rise and fill the gaps.”

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2024-07-08 11:46:00Z
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