LONDON—Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ruling Conservative Party lost a special election in a rural part of the U.K., leaving the new leader with a governing majority in Parliament of just one seat.
The defeat means Mr. Johnson is now acutely vulnerable to revolts in his own party that could fatally undermine his Brexit strategy and possibly endanger his premiership.
Several Conservative lawmakers have threatened to bring Mr. Johnson’s government down if he goes through with his bold promise to yank Britain out of the European Union without a deal to smooth its exit on Oct. 31, should EU leaders refuse to negotiate a new accord. If that happens, it could trigger fresh elections in the fall.
Voters in the rural Welsh district of Brecon and Radnorshire went to the polls Thursday to select a new lawmaker, after the Conservative incumbent was ousted following a conviction for expenses fraud.
The normally mundane vote assumed outsize importance given the newly appointed prime minister’s fragile grip on Parliament. It also offered an early litmus test of the electoral appeal of Mr. Johnson’s promise to deliver Brexit “no ifs or buts.”
The Brecon election was won by the Liberal Democrats, a party that opposes the U.K.’s exit from the EU. Jane Dodds, the party’s candidate, was elected with 44% of the vote. The Conservatives came second. Labour, the main opposition, were beaten into fourth place by the Brexit Party, an upstart group of hard-line Brexit advocates led by Nigel Farage, the doyen of British euroskepticism.
Down to One
With the loss of a Conservative seat in a by-election, Boris Johnson’s majority is just a single vote.
Seats by party in the U.K. Parliament
Majority
320 seats
310
Conservatives
245
Labour
74
Other
parties
10
DUP
Seats by party in the U.K. Parliament
Majority
320 seats
310
Conservatives
245
Labour
74
Other
parties
10
DUP
Seats by party in the U.K. Parliament
Majority
320 seats
74
Other
parties
310
Conservatives
245
Labour
10
DUP
Seats by party in the U.K. Parliament
Majority
320 seats
310
Conservatives
245
Labour
10
DUP
74
Other parties
Note: Party figures exclude one Conservative and two Labour members in Speaker's office and seven Sinn Féin members who never took their seats.
Source: U.K. Parliament
The loss means Mr. Johnson will struggle to get his Brexit plans through the U.K. legislature, which is deeply split over what sort of new relationship to forge with the EU or whether to leave the bloc at all. Lacking an outright majority, Mr. Johnson’s Conservative party is in power thanks to the support of the Democratic Unionist Party, a pro-Brexit group from Northern Ireland.
Mr. Johnson has said that he doesn’t want a general election before he delivers a split from the EU.
However, given his shaky hold on Parliament, some believe the prime minister is preparing for a national vote. They point to the presence in Mr. Johnson’s senior team of seasoned campaigners such as Dominic Cummings, his joint chief of staff, and campaign-like stops around the U.K. since the prime minister assumed office last week.
Indeed, despite the defeat in Brecon, some think Mr. Johnson would welcome an election in the hope of winning a comfortable majority, a high-risk strategy that could backfire.
“The calculation in Number 10 is to go to the people and win a majority,” said Anand Menon, professor of politics at King’s College London, referring to the prime minister’s Downing Street headquarters.
Indeed, the Brecon defeat mightn’t be the best guide to the result of a national election. The Conservative candidate was the same man voters had just ejected over expenses fraud. A pact between the victorious Liberal Democrats and other pro-EU parties ensured Ms. Dodds was the only prominent anti-Brexit candidate.
Opinion polls suggest the Conservatives under Mr. Johnson have opened up a convincing lead over Labour since he took office. A survey concluded July 20 by Ipsos Mori put the Conservatives on 34% of the vote, 10 points ahead of Labour. But polls also show the party has lost a chunk of support to Mr. Farage’s Brexit Party, making winning enough seats for an outright majority tricky.
Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnsons-grip-on-u-k-parliament-is-weakened-by-local-election-defeat-11564745709
2019-08-02 11:35:00Z
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