Kamis, 30 Juli 2020

Commentary: Booster shots will likely be needed even if a COVID-19 vaccine is ready - CNA

BRIGHTON, England: In the global race to contain the coronavirus pandemic, there is hopeful news on the vaccine front, with a number of potential candidates being developed and some promising early results.

Based on what we know so far, it currently seems likely that most potential vaccines designed to protect against the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 will require boosters, perhaps regularly. Why is this?

When an infectious agent enters the body, the immune system will notice this and create a memory, so that the next time it encounters the agent there will be a swift, repelling response.

In the case of most infectious agents, such as viruses, natural infection produces a long-lasting memory. But this is not always the case.

The idea behind any vaccine is to give the recipient a version of the infectious agent which will not cause the disease, but will still create the immune system memory. How we achieve that varies based on the nature of the virus targeted by a vaccine, and how much we know about it.

LISTEN: The COVID-19 vaccine will be the biggest product launch in history. Can we pull it off?

READ: Commentary: COVID-19 vaccine – why is it taking so long to develop one?

TWO TYPES OF VACCINES

Some vaccines are made by disabling the infectious agent in some way so that it becomes safe to introduce to our bodies, but still goes through its normal life cycle.

The theory is that this will stimulate something close to the natural immune response and produce the long-lasting memory without making the recipient sick.

This is the basis of the vaccine we are given for measles, mumps and rubella (MMR). It contains live but disabled versions of each virus.

Children are given two doses of the vaccine a few years apart. This is in case the vaccine does not “take” the first time around and the immune system needs a reminder of what the viruses look like.

This repeat vaccine is not technically a booster, but rather a second dose which allows for possible interference by other childhood infections the first time around, and because a pre-school child’s immune system is still developing.

READ: 5 things you need to know about a COVID-19 vaccine

vaccination file photo
File photo of a woman preparing a measles vaccine. (Photo: AFP/Schneyder Mendoza)

The MMR approach has been possible because the viruses that cause measles, mumps and rubella are well established in the human population and virologists know a lot about how they interact with the human immune system.

But it takes years to create a safe and effective live vaccine, so for SARS-CoV-2, research teams are trying different routes. A good approach is to use a killed version of the virus rather than a modified, live version as in the case of MMR.

The inactivated polio vaccine and influenza vaccines both use killed viruses. The drawback of these vaccines is that the immune response does not last, which is why boosters are needed.

In the case of seasonal influenza, variations in the virus means a fresh vaccine is needed each year anyway, but even if the virus did not change, boosters would still be required to keep stimulating the immune memory because the virus in the vaccine is not live.

In the case of polio, most countries now use the inactivated polio vaccine in their childhood vaccination programme instead of the live, oral version.

READ: Commentary: How ‘good’ does a COVID-19 vaccine need to be to stop the pandemic?

READ: Wave of promising study results raise hopes for COVID-19 vaccines

As the disease is close to being eradicated, the theory is that giving each cohort of children a single dose should be enough to protect them as they start mixing with others.

But if there was an outbreak, then everyone in close contact in the local area would need a booster.

WHAT A COVID-19 VACCINE MAY LOOK LIKE

The potential COVID-19 vaccine designed by French company Valneva, which will be manufactured in Scotland, is a killed vaccine. If it is effective in protecting against SARS-CoV-2, it could really help to reduce the spread of the virus.

In the case of this vaccine, regular (perhaps annual) boosters would probably be needed to help to ensure people keep their immune memory. In an outbreak situation, everyone in the affected area could be given a dose of the vaccine to help contain the transmission.

READ: Commentary: Controversies over COVID-19 research show the messy progress of science

FILE PHOTO: Scientists work in a lab testing COVID-19 samples at New York City's health depart
Scientists work in a lab testing COVID-19 samples at New York City's health department, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York City, New York U.S., April 23, 2020. Picture taken April 23, 2020. (File photo: REUTERS/Brendan McDermid)

Another approach in vaccine design is to take the genetic code for a part of the virus which is known to stimulate an immune response, and place that into a carrier organism which cannot cause disease.

The Hepatitis B vaccine uses the code for the antigen found on the outside of infectious virus particles. This has been put into the genome of a harmless yeast and made into a vaccine.

As the yeast grows and divides, it also makes the virus’s surface antigen, thus stimulating the body to keep making an immune response. This vaccine is given in three doses over six months in the first instance, and most people require a booster after about five years.

The COVID-19 vaccine developed by the team at Oxford University, which has shown promising early results, uses a broadly similar approach, in that researchers have taken the code for the SARS-CoV-2 “spike protein” and put it into a harmless virus carrier.

READ: Don't expect first COVID-19 vaccinations until early 2021: WHO expert

So, it is possible that the initial schedule for everyone who received this type of vaccine would involve one or two booster doses a few months after the first, in a similar way to the Hepatitis B vaccine.

We are not really sure how long we would be protected against COVID-19 using this approach, by analogy with Hepatitis B – but it could be a few years. This might be enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 around the world.

The need for a booster should not provide a barrier for the rollout of any potential COVID-19 vaccine, as our experiences with Hepatitis B, MMR and influenza prevention have shown.

But it will require a concerted effort to make billions of doses of the vaccine and distribute them efficiently and fairly around the world.

READ: Commentary: As world waits for coronavirus vaccine, antibodies treatment a needed plan B

All countries will need a robust vaccination programme in place to invite everyone to have the first dose and then remind them to have the second or third dose as required. It will also be important to monitor how people respond to make sure that the booster works as planned.

If we can manage this, getting immunised against COVID-19 may just become a normal part of our routine health care duty – like regularly going to the dentist.

BOOKMARK THIS: Our comprehensive coverage of the coronavirus outbreak and its developments

Download our app or subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest updates on the coronavirus outbreak: https://cna.asia/telegram

Sarah Pitt is Principal Lecturer, Microbiology and Biomedical Science Practice at the University of Brighton. This commentary first appeared on The Conversation.

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2020-07-30 22:07:36Z
52780964043502

Coronavirus: Dining-in is back on the menu as Hong Kong government U-turns ban - The Straits Times

HONG KONG - The government has backpedalled on its decision to fully ban dining-in at eateries one day into the new rule kicking in, after drawing criticisms for the move, while the city hits a high in new daily coronavirus infections.

In a statement issued on Thursday (July 30), the government said after observing the implementation of the dine-in ban that it understood the measure "has inconvenienced and made it difficult for employees".

From Friday, eateries can run at half capacity, with each table capped at two diners, while the 1.5m rule between tables still applies.

The government reinstated the order for eateries to provide only takeaways between 6pm and 5am.

The announcement came after blue-collar workers, including construction workers and cleaners, were seen having takeaways outdoors in heavy rain, or inside toilets or storerooms.

Previously, the government said it would open 19 community halls across the city between 11am and 3pm from Thursday for those without a place to lunch, but some said these halls may be too far for them.

The backpedalling comes as the government struggles to contain the community transmissions as the number of new infections surges daily.

For the ninth day in a row, Hong Kong added more than 100 new Covid-19 cases.

Health authorities said at the daily briefing that there were 149 new cases on Thursday - the highest in a single day - bringing the confirmed tally to 3,151, including 24 deaths.

Of the new infections, 145 were local cases, of which sources were unknown for 61 patients.

China's director of the State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease Zhong Nanshan suggested in a Xinhua interview that the Hong Kong government should provide territory-wide free nucleic acid screenings, with help from the mainland.

The government must take firm action against people who "deliberately come out to make trouble" or "hold gatherings or demonstrations" during this crucial period, he said.

But Professor David Hui, a respiratory disease expert from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told a local radio station on Thursday that it is not practical to test everyone in the city.

This, as a person can be tested negative one day but positive in the days that follow.

Prof Hui said his peers have conducted an analysis with the results suggesting that the third wave of outbreak could be over by the end of August.

Over the past five weeks, community outbreaks have been growing faster than the healthcare services can cope with, as testing services are stretched to their limits and hospital beds for Covid-19 patients run out.

On Wednesday, Chief Executive Carrie Lam warned that Hong Kong is "on the verge of a large-scale community outbreak, which may lead to a collapse of our hospital system and cost lives, especially of the elderly".

To free up more beds for Covid-19 patients in serious conditions, the Hospital Authority on Thursday said there will be 500 beds and three doctors stationed at the new Covid-19 treatment facility at AsiaWorld-Expo convention centre.

Previously used as a coronavirus testing centre for incoming travellers, the centre will begin running in a few days' time and cater to patients in stable conditions who are aged between 18 and 60.

As pressure mounts on the government to contain the community spread, it rolled out tighter restrictions on Wednesday that halved the number at public gatherings to two and ordered people to wear masks at all times at outdoor public places.

Multiple venues, the list of which keeps expanding from gyms, cinemas, massage parlours to sports centres and swimming pools, have been ordered to shut since July 15 and will remain so until Aug 4.

On Thursday, the government also said civil servants, save for those providing emergency services and essential public services, will continue to work from home until Aug 9.

Related Stories: 

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2020-07-30 10:30:09Z
CAIiEECwme6rzvEuedBJlhpFv9YqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow_7X3CjCh49YCMMa2pwU

COVID-19: Hong Kong backtracks on restaurant dining ban, to allow with restrictions - CNA

HONG KONG: Hong Kong authorities on Thursday (Jul 30) backtracked on a decision to ban all restaurant dining, noting that it brought "inconvenience and difficulties" to many workers.

From Friday, eateries will be able to resume dine-in services for breakfast and lunch, provided they operate at 50 per cent capacity and ensure diners sit two to a table, with a 1.5m spacing between each table. 

Dining-in will only be allowed from 5am to 5.59pm, according to the authorities. In the evenings, eateries must stick to only serving takeaway meals.

READ: COVID-19: For kitchen-less Hong Kongers, new ban on restaurant dining is a bitter pill

The restaurant dining ban, which was announced on Monday and took effect on Wednesday, had barred any outlet from allowing dine-in patrons, an unprecedented move in the financial hub where hundreds of thousands depend on eating out for daily meals.

The ban was followed by a wave of widespread public anger, and restaurant groups with links to influential pro-Beijing parties also voiced dismay at the measures, which had been urged by epidemiologists to slow COVID-19 infections amid a spike in new cases. 

Other restrictions announced on Monday included a ban on gatherings of more than two people and mandatory face masks in all public places.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Hong Kong
Customers wait to buy a take-away lunch after the government banned dine-in services in Hong Kong, China, Jul 29, 2020. (Photo: Reuters/Tyrone Siu)

EATING IN STOREROOMS, TOILETS

Following the ban, construction and office workers were seen across the city trying to find shade as they ate their noodle and rice lunch boxes in temperatures of up to 35 degrees Celsius.

Social media was quickly swamped by photos of primarily blue-collar workers forced to eat on pavements and parks - and even inside public toilets to escape a torrential downpour.

Hong Kong authorities have since opened 19 community centres for residents and workers to have their meals. 

A construction worker eats his takeaway lunch on a pavement in Hong Kong
A construction worker eats his takeaway lunch on a pavement in Hong Kong, Jul 29, 2020. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

Ivan Tong, a 24-year-old engineer who was buying his takeaway lunch in the commercial district of Tsim Sha Tsui, said many industries did not have an office where workers could eat and some companies did not allow dining inside, making the restaurant dining ban very tough.

"Although these measures aim to lower the number of confirmed cases, it may be more dangerous as people are outside longer," Tong said.

READ: Hong Kong is on verge of COVID-19 outbreak that could collapse hospital system, says Carrie Lam

A worker eats his lunch at a church in Hong Kong
A worker eats his lunch in an air conditioned church, which opened its doors to members of the public who would otherwise have to eat outdoors, in Hong Kong on Jul 30, 2020. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

In response to the ban, private businesses as varied as hairdresser salons and bus companies as well as churches provided space for the public to eat in.

One salon, Hair La Forme, posted on Facebook that it would provide water, napkins and air-conditioned toilets for free.

"Every time someone eats a meal it will be fully disinfected," it said above a photograph showing individual customer booths with leather seats and wide mirrors.

A woman rests after eating her lunch in a hair salon in Hong Kong
A woman rests after eating her lunch in a hair salon in Hong Kong on Jul 30, 2020. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

Hong Kong had been a poster child for tackling the coronavirus, with local transmissions all but ended by early summer.

But the virus has returned in recent weeks, brought in by tens of thousands of people who were exempt from a mandatory quarantine imposed on most arrivals.

They included international ship and airline crews, as well as top businessmen and senior officials travelling to mainland China.

Hong Kong reported 149 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, a daily record. The new infections include 145 that were locally transmitted.

More than 1,500 new infections have been detected since the start of July - half the total since the virus first hit the city in late January.

BOOKMARK THIS: Our comprehensive coverage of the coronavirus outbreak and its developments

Download our app or subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest updates on the coronavirus outbreak: https://cna.asia/telegram

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2020-07-30 08:48:45Z
52780963501006

China denies sheltering 1MDB scandal fugitive Jho Low - South China Morning Post

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China denies sheltering 1MDB scandal fugitive Jho Low  South China Morning PostView Full coverage on Google News
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2020-07-30 04:16:57Z
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Rabu, 29 Juli 2020

China's polarising new security law: Sunset for Hong Kong, or a return to stability? - CNA

HONG KONG: It is known as one of Asia’s most vibrant financial centres — a base for more than 70 of the world’s 100 largest banks and the regional headquarters of over 30 multinational banks.

Hong Kong’s freewheeling economy and open capital flows, backed by an independent judiciary and rule of law, have been its strengths.

It also serves as a gateway to mainland China for international companies reaching out to a consumer market of more than 1.4 billion people.

But Hong Kong’s position as a leading financial hub is said to be under threat following the introduction of China’s new national security law, which took effect on Jun 30.

Beijing imposed the national security law on Hong Kong after months of pro-democracy protests.
Beijing imposed the national security law on Hong Kong after months of pro-democracy protests last year. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

Already, United States President Donald Trump has signed an executive order revoking the city’s trade privileges with the US, which have generated an estimated US$38 billion in annual trade between the two sides.

He also signed a law authorising sanctions on Chinese officials and organisations — including banks — that are found to have undermined Hong Kong’s autonomous status.

Businessmen like Mr Conrad Ho believe that such actions, if the US pursues its latest course of action aggressively, will have more ramifications for Hong Kong.

“Even if nothing comes of it, foreign capital could become much warier about investing in Hong Kong,” says the founder and executive director of Coho Group, which manages a portfolio of finance, technology and retail assets.

Watch: The impact of Hong Kong's new security law (49:52)

He knows there is a risk that Hong Kong will lose its competitive edge over other Asian cities like Singapore.

“One financial firm that my company works with is being forced to move to Singapore because their investors find Hong Kong to be too risky and unsafe,” he cites. “Previously, global investors perceived Hong Kong as being independent.”

But he supports the new national security law because “it’ll create more stability” in a city rocked by months of protests. A politically stable Hong Kong, he believes, will be good for business and the economy.

“That’s something Hong Kong needs right now,” he says.

Police clash with protesters in Hong Kong the day after the new security law went into effect.
Police clash with protesters in Hong Kong the day after the new law went into effect. (Photo: The New York Times/Lam Yik Fei)

It is a new reality for Hongkongers, now that Beijing has given itself powers to override the semi-autonomous region’s local laws and crack down on various political crimes, including acts of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces.

But will it be a return to stability and continued faith in Hong Kong, or will the threat to its autonomous status contribute to its decline? The programme Insight examines what the future holds for the city. (Watch the episode here.)

READ: What lies ahead for Hong Kong, a city on edge

WHITHER JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE?

A key point of contention is the impact the security law might have on judicial independence and rule of law, as the Chinese parliament’s top decision-making body has the final say in interpreting the law.

The National People’s Congress Standing Committee is not familiar with Hong Kong common law and is likely to “import some of the mainland concepts”, believes University of Hong Kong chair of public law Johannes Chan.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on a video screen in Hong Kong during a live broadcast of the NPC.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is shown on a video screen (top centre) in Hong Kong on May 28, during a live broadcast of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace) 

“What they don’t realise is that the economic success of Hong Kong depends on a whole range of things, and among them, no less important is the judicial (and) legal system,” says the professor.

“Once you ... undermine the legal system, you’ll inevitably affect the economic system and Hong Kong. By then, if the legal system is ... no longer effective, there’d be very little difference between Hong Kong and Shenzhen or Hong Kong and Shanghai.”

Despite these concerns over judicial impartiality, some observers believe the level of trust within the business community remains high. It will not “instantly evaporate”, says Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy visiting senior research fellow Drew Thompson.

“Plenty of international businesses have trust in China. And they have major investments in relationships with the government and business entities on the mainland, as well as in Hong Kong,” he adds.

“That said, all international businesses potentially fall under the national security law simply because they’re foreign. So the risks of doing business in Hong Kong have definitely increased. International businesses ... can’t count on Hong Kong’s legal system to be independent.

The potential for returns is still there, so I don’t think Hong Kong is going to become a pariah in that sense. But it’s definitely going to give international companies pause.

Companies and financial institutions have voiced support for the security law, notably British banking giants HSBC and Standard Chartered, two of the biggest banks in Hong Kong.

London-based HSBC bank has come under fire in Britain for backing China's new security law.
London-based HSBC bank has come under fire in Britain for backing the security law imposed on Hong Kong, one of its biggest markets. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

HSBC, however, did so only after Hong Kong’s former leader, Leung Chun-ying, blasted the lender — which generates most of its profit in Hong Kong and Asia — for not taking a “stance” after the United Kingdom criticised the law.

Most businesses need not worry unless they are providing funding for subversives, believes Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions president Stanley Ng.

“Those acting in the name of ‘business’ whilst advocating Hong Kong’s independence or unrest or terrorism ... will definitely be sanctioned. So they must immediately move their assets and register (their business) elsewhere,” he says.

“That’s totally understandable, though other businesses ... shouldn’t be affected.”

HOW MUCH LEVERAGE DOES THE U.S. HAVE?

Hong Kong’s current chief executive, Mrs Carrie Lam, has also given assurances that judicial independence will not be compromised. But the implementation of the new law continues to draw international criticism, including from the Trump administration.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam says the security law won't compromise judicial independence.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam.

Disastrous as the US’ tough line on China may seem for Hong Kong’s economy, however, some observers believe it lacks substance and teeth.

“You’re going to see a lot of this rhetoric going back and forth, and because of the coming election ... China-bashing, perhaps, will win some of the votes,” says Mr Bernard Charnwut Chan, the Non-official Convenor of the Executive Council.

“But do they really want to go against China? I don’t think so because Trump cares about the economy. Without China as a potential buyer (for) agricultural products and other things ... would that help the US?

“I just can’t imagine that the US will want to go and censure Hong Kong, because it’ll not only hurt us, but equally it’ll hurt them.”

China said it will retaliate after Donald Trump signed off on a bill authorising sanctions on banks.
China said it will retaliate after United States President Donald Trump signed a bill authorising sanctions because of the clampdown in Hong Kong. (Photo: AFP/Jim Watson)

The timing is key, agrees Assistant Professor Eric Lau from The Open University of Hong Kong’s Lee Shau Kee School of Business and Administration. “Trump wants to be re-elected, so he wants to make more news to benefit his election.”

Hong Kong imports more goods from the US than vice versa. The US’ trade surplus last year was US$26 billion (S$36 billion), so “if a trade war starts, the loser would be the US”, he points out.

Professor Jean-Pierre Cabestan from Hong Kong Baptist University’s Department of Government and International Studies has a “hunch” that any US sanctions would be “symbolic”.

“I don’t think it’s in the US’ interest to destabilise Hong Kong as a financial hub (and) penalise American companies or fund companies present in Hong Kong,” he says.

Hong Kong's central business district on Dec 27, 2019. (File photo: The New York Times/Lam Yik Fei)
Hong Kong's central business district. (File photo: The New York Times/Lam Yik Fei)

Still, sanctions could have an impact, warns Mr Thompson, such as on “the ability to do financial transactions with named individuals” or on their ability to obtain visas and travel to the US. “It might make them pariahs,” he says.

“When an individual, entity or company has been named to the Entity List, very frequently other countries’ banks won’t want to do business with that person because of the risk they potentially face.

“But at this point, it’s too soon to tell how aggressively (sanctions) will be enforced.”

CONCERN OVER AN EXODUS

Even as China’s new law may potentially have a chilling effect on business, it has cast a pall over the city’s residents. Anxiety and defiance, with protesters taking to the streets, have become the norm.

China's new national security law has cast a pall over Hong Kong’s residents.

Beijing has established an office in Hong Kong to enforce the law, but its terms are “vague”, says Prof Chan.

“We don’t know ... what its powers will be, but it’s a fairly scary idea to have a national security unit that’s almost a parallel police force.”

Uncertainty about the city’s future has sparked concern about a new wave of emigration — more than 20 years after the exodus that took place during the 1997 handover of the city from British to Chinese rule.

So far, the UK has offered a path to citizenship for nearly three million Hong Kong residents. Australia and Taiwan have also opened the door to residency in the event of an exodus.

READ: China says UK citizenship pathway for Hong Kong residents violates international law

READ: The UK’s citizenship offer to Hong Kongers is incredibly ironic — a commentary

Already, some 50,000 people emigrated from the city of 7.5 million people in the second half of last year. “Many people who can afford to leave are thinking now of leaving, making plans,” says Democratic Party founder Martin Lee.

“Some of the people living here (have) already got passports from Canada, Australia, and they could just pull out quickly, easily. And I’m afraid a lot of tycoons will go.”

Democratic Party founder Martin Lee (left) arrives for a May 18 court hearing in Hong Kong.
Democratic Party founder Martin Lee (left) arrives for a May 18 hearing at the West Kowloon Magistrates' Courts in Hong Kong. (Photo: Reuters/Jessie Pang)

An exodus could erode a skilled core of professionals and managers in the society. “In terms of the talent pool, historically, Hong Kong has enjoyed having skilled talent from both the West and from mainland China,” notes Mr Ho.

“Due to all the recent troubles, I’m quite worried that the talent pool we’ve accumulated ... may be lost.”

The local government, however, is not worried about the problem of emigration. “This is nothing new for Hong Kong,” says Mr Chan, who was Mrs Lam's campaign manager when she ran for office.

“We’ve gone through crises in the 60s, in the 80s ... even in the 90s. So we’ve had that so-called brain drain many times ... If you look back, after each crisis, you see a new rise for Hong Kong.

“We saw people leaving, but we also saw people coming in ... So I’m quite confident that Hong Kong will survive. People will always find opportunities to come back.”

Bernard Charnwut Chan (front right) was Carrie Lam's campaign manager when she ran for office.
Mr Bernard Charnwut Chan (front right) was Mrs Carrie Lam's campaign manager when she ran for office. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

ABSENT A COMPROMISE, A LOT TO LOSE

With Hong Kong being brought closer into China’s fold, however, many Hongkongers worry that their city will eventually lose the characteristics — like free speech, judicial independence and rule of law — that have made it what it is today.

Its uniqueness and economic importance have also begun to wane following the rise of Chinese megacities like Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Other than Chongqing, they each boast an economy bigger than Hong Kong’s now.

So is Hong Kong at risk of losing its identity and becoming just another Chinese city?

“As Hong Kong’s autonomy erodes, so does its uniqueness as well as its values in the eyes of many people, particularly in international businesses. That autonomy, though, was seen as a threat by Beijing,” said Mr Thompson.

“I don't think that Hong Kong will ever be just another city, but certainly its uniqueness, its vibrancy and its overall importance vis-a-vis the rest of China has diminished considerably.”

The flags of China (left) and Hong Kong. The city is being brought closer into China’s fold.
The flags of China (left) and Hong Kong.

Despite this gradual convergence of Hong Kong and the mainland, Mr Chan does not doubt that Beijing “continues to believe in Hong Kong ... (and) ‘one country, two systems’”.

“That’s the key, because they’ll do everything to make sure it works. So I can’t imagine why China would want to hurt Hong Kong, provided that you don't try to hurt them,” he says.

That sentiment is shared by Jessica, who supports the security law. Using a pseudonym for fear of suffering retaliation, she says the violent protests are affecting livelihoods and must stop. Stability, she feels, is key to Hong Kong’s economic future.

“How can we strip away the rights of business owners who want to still operate their businesses?” the 29-year-old questions. “They’re unable to bring home resources to provide for their family.”

The latest unrest in Hong Kong comes after China announced a sweeping national security law.
The latest unrest in Hong Kong comes after China announced a sweeping national security law in the wake of last year's often violent pro-democracy rallies. (Photo: AFP/Isaac Lawrence)

Mr Chan thinks Hong Kong was “too free in the past” and had “gone too far” with allowing people to talk about gaining independence from China in future.

“We do have a young generation — you may call them naive or what — but then, some actually think that Hong Kong can survive on its own, which I think is still ridiculous,” he says.

With the new law, Mr Ho believes the authorities can “more effectively and, possibly, more surgically” stop people “inciting hatred across Hong Kong’s different groups”. He adds: “For that, Hong Kong will be a better place in the long run.”

For now, it remains unclear how the crisis will end. But it looks set to be a battle with little hope for a compromise.

Protesters in Hong Kong make the gesture that signifies "five demands — not one less".
Protesters make the gesture that signifies "five demands — not one less".

“It’s true that we shouldn’t condone those violent acts, but you have to ask the question — what forced those young people to resort to what they’ve done? There are far more serious and deep-rooted causes,” says Prof Chan.

“If we don’t address those issues, a high-handed, draconian law would never resolve the issues.”

Watch this episode here. The programme Insight airs on Thursdays at 9pm.

A protestor waves what is considered the unofficial flag of the protests in Hong Kong.
A protestor waves what is considered the unofficial flag of the protests in Hong Kong.

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2020-07-30 02:09:20Z
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China's polarising new security law: Sunset for Hong Kong, or a return to stability? - CNA

HONG KONG: It is known as one of Asia’s most vibrant financial centres — a base for more than 70 of the world’s 100 largest banks and the regional headquarters of over 30 multinational banks.

Hong Kong’s freewheeling economy and open capital flows, backed by an independent judiciary and rule of law, have been its strengths.

It also serves as a gateway to mainland China for international companies reaching out to a consumer market of more than 1.4 billion people.

But Hong Kong’s position as a leading financial hub is said to be under threat following the introduction of China’s new national security law, which took effect on Jun 30.

Beijing imposed the national security law on Hong Kong after months of pro-democracy protests.
Beijing imposed the national security law on Hong Kong after months of pro-democracy protests last year. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

Already, United States President Donald Trump has signed an executive order revoking the city’s trade privileges with the US, which have generated an estimated US$38 billion in annual trade between the two sides.

He also signed a law authorising sanctions on Chinese officials and organisations — including banks — that are found to have undermined Hong Kong’s autonomous status.

Businessmen like Mr Conrad Ho believe that such actions, if the US pursues its latest course of action aggressively, will have more ramifications for Hong Kong.

“Even if nothing comes of it, foreign capital could become much warier about investing in Hong Kong,” says the founder and executive director of Coho Group, which manages a portfolio of finance, technology and retail assets.

Watch: The impact of Hong Kong's new security law (49:52)

He knows there is a risk that Hong Kong will lose its competitive edge over other Asian cities like Singapore.

“One financial firm that my company works with is being forced to move to Singapore because their investors find Hong Kong to be too risky and unsafe,” he cites. “Previously, global investors perceived Hong Kong as being independent.”

But he supports the new national security law because “it’ll create more stability” in a city rocked by months of protests. A politically stable Hong Kong, he believes, will be good for business and the economy.

“That’s something Hong Kong needs right now,” he says.

Police clash with protesters in Hong Kong the day after the new security law went into effect.
Police clash with protesters in Hong Kong the day after the new law went into effect. (Photo: The New York Times/Lam Yik Fei)

It is a new reality for Hongkongers, now that Beijing has given itself powers to override the semi-autonomous region’s local laws and crack down on various political crimes, including acts of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces.

But will it be a return to stability and continued faith in Hong Kong, or will the threat to its autonomous status contribute to its decline? The programme Insight examines what the future holds for the city. (Watch the episode here.)

READ: What lies ahead for Hong Kong, a city on edge

WHITHER JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE?

A key point of contention is the impact the security law might have on judicial independence and rule of law, as the Chinese parliament’s top decision-making body has the final say in interpreting the law.

The National People’s Congress Standing Committee is not familiar with Hong Kong common law and is likely to “import some of the mainland concepts”, believes University of Hong Kong chair of public law Johannes Chan.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on a video screen in Hong Kong during a live broadcast of the NPC.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is shown on a video screen (top centre) in Hong Kong on May 28, during a live broadcast of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace) 

“What they don’t realise is that the economic success of Hong Kong depends on a whole range of things, and among them, no less important is the judicial (and) legal system,” says the professor.

“Once you ... undermine the legal system, you’ll inevitably affect the economic system and Hong Kong. By then, if the legal system is ... no longer effective, there’d be very little difference between Hong Kong and Shenzhen or Hong Kong and Shanghai.”

Despite these concerns over judicial impartiality, some observers believe the level of trust within the business community remains high. It will not “instantly evaporate”, says Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy visiting senior research fellow Drew Thompson.

“Plenty of international businesses have trust in China. And they have major investments in relationships with the government and business entities on the mainland, as well as in Hong Kong,” he adds.

“That said, all international businesses potentially fall under the national security law simply because they’re foreign. So the risks of doing business in Hong Kong have definitely increased. International businesses ... can’t count on Hong Kong’s legal system to be independent.

The potential for returns is still there, so I don’t think Hong Kong is going to become a pariah in that sense. But it’s definitely going to give international companies pause.

Companies and financial institutions have voiced support for the security law, notably British banking giants HSBC and Standard Chartered, two of the biggest banks in Hong Kong.

London-based HSBC bank has come under fire in Britain for backing China's new security law.
London-based HSBC bank has come under fire in Britain for backing the security law imposed on Hong Kong, one of its biggest markets. (Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace)

HSBC, however, did so only after Hong Kong’s former leader, Leung Chun-ying, blasted the lender — which generates most of its profit in Hong Kong and Asia — for not taking a “stance” after the United Kingdom criticised the law.

Most businesses need not worry unless they are providing funding for subversives, believes Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions president Stanley Ng.

“Those acting in the name of ‘business’ whilst advocating Hong Kong’s independence or unrest or terrorism ... will definitely be sanctioned. So they must immediately move their assets and register (their business) elsewhere,” he says.

“That’s totally understandable, though other businesses ... shouldn’t be affected.”

HOW MUCH LEVERAGE DOES THE U.S. HAVE?

Hong Kong’s current chief executive, Mrs Carrie Lam, has also given assurances that judicial independence will not be compromised. But the implementation of the new law continues to draw international criticism, including from the Trump administration.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam says the security law won't compromise judicial independence.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam.

Disastrous as the US’ tough line on China may seem for Hong Kong’s economy, however, some observers believe it lacks substance and teeth.

“You’re going to see a lot of this rhetoric going back and forth, and because of the coming election ... China-bashing, perhaps, will win some of the votes,” says Mr Bernard Charnwut Chan, the Non-official Convenor of the Executive Council.

“But do they really want to go against China? I don’t think so because Trump cares about the economy. Without China as a potential buyer (for) agricultural products and other things ... would that help the US?

“I just can’t imagine that the US will want to go and censure Hong Kong, because it’ll not only hurt us, but equally it’ll hurt them.”

China said it will retaliate after Donald Trump signed off on a bill authorising sanctions on banks.
China said it will retaliate after United States President Donald Trump signed a bill authorising sanctions because of the clampdown in Hong Kong. (Photo: AFP/Jim Watson)

The timing is key, agrees Assistant Professor Eric Lau from The Open University of Hong Kong’s Lee Shau Kee School of Business and Administration. “Trump wants to be re-elected, so he wants to make more news to benefit his election.”

Hong Kong imports more goods from the US than vice versa. The US’ trade surplus last year was US$26 billion (S$36 billion), so “if a trade war starts, the loser would be the US”, he points out.

Professor Jean-Pierre Cabestan from Hong Kong Baptist University’s Department of Government and International Studies has a “hunch” that any US sanctions would be “symbolic”.

“I don’t think it’s in the US’ interest to destabilise Hong Kong as a financial hub (and) penalise American companies or fund companies present in Hong Kong,” he says.

Hong Kong's central business district on Dec 27, 2019. (File photo: The New York Times/Lam Yik Fei)
Hong Kong's central business district. (File photo: The New York Times/Lam Yik Fei)

Still, sanctions could have an impact, warns Mr Thompson, such as on “the ability to do financial transactions with named individuals” or on their ability to obtain visas and travel to the US. “It might make them pariahs,” he says.

“When an individual, entity or company has been named to the Entity List, very frequently other countries’ banks won’t want to do business with that person because of the risk they potentially face.

“But at this point, it’s too soon to tell how aggressively (sanctions) will be enforced.”

CONCERN OVER AN EXODUS

Even as China’s new law may potentially have a chilling effect on business, it has cast a pall over the city’s residents. Anxiety and defiance, with protesters taking to the streets, have become the norm.

China's new national security law has cast a pall over Hong Kong’s residents.

Beijing has established an office in Hong Kong to enforce the law, but its terms are “vague”, says Prof Chan.

“We don’t know ... what its powers will be, but it’s a fairly scary idea to have a national security unit that’s almost a parallel police force.”

Uncertainty about the city’s future has sparked concern about a new wave of emigration — more than 20 years after the exodus that took place during the 1997 handover of the city from British to Chinese rule.

So far, the UK has offered a path to citizenship for nearly three million Hong Kong residents. Australia and Taiwan have also opened the door to residency in the event of an exodus.

READ: China says UK citizenship pathway for Hong Kong residents violates international law

READ: The UK’s citizenship offer to Hong Kongers is incredibly ironic — a commentary

Already, some 50,000 people emigrated from the city of 7.5 million people in the second half of last year. “Many people who can afford to leave are thinking now of leaving, making plans,” says Democratic Party founder Martin Lee.

“Some of the people living here (have) already got passports from Canada, Australia, and they could just pull out quickly, easily. And I’m afraid a lot of tycoons will go.”

An exodus could erode a skilled core of professionals and managers in the society. “In terms of the talent pool, historically, Hong Kong has enjoyed having skilled talent from both the West and from mainland China,” notes Mr Ho.

“Due to all the recent troubles, I’m quite worried that the talent pool we’ve accumulated ... may be lost.”

The local government, however, is not worried about the problem of emigration. “This is nothing new for Hong Kong,” says Mr Chan, who was Mrs Lam's campaign manager when she ran for office.

“We’ve gone through crises in the 60s, in the 80s ... even in the 90s. So we’ve had that so-called brain drain many times ... If you look back, after each crisis, you see a new rise for Hong Kong.

“We saw people leaving, but we also saw people coming in ... So I’m quite confident that Hong Kong will survive. People will always find opportunities to come back.”

ABSENT A COMPROMISE, A LOT TO LOSE

With Hong Kong being brought closer into China’s fold, however, many Hongkongers worry that their city will eventually lose the characteristics — like free speech, judicial independence and rule of law — that have made it what it is today.

Its uniqueness and economic importance have also begun to wane following the rise of Chinese megacities like Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Other than Chongqing, they each boast an economy bigger than Hong Kong’s now.

So is Hong Kong at risk of losing its identity and becoming just another Chinese city?

“As Hong Kong’s autonomy erodes, so does its uniqueness as well as its values in the eyes of many people, particularly in international businesses. That autonomy, though, was seen as a threat by Beijing,” said Mr Thompson.

“I don't think that Hong Kong will ever be just another city, but certainly its uniqueness, its vibrancy and its overall importance vis-a-vis the rest of China has diminished considerably.”

Despite this gradual convergence of Hong Kong and the mainland, Mr Chan does not doubt that Beijing “continues to believe in Hong Kong ... (and) ‘one country, two systems’”.

“That’s the key, because they’ll do everything to make sure it works. So I can’t imagine why China would want to hurt Hong Kong, provided that you don't try to hurt them,” he says.

That sentiment is shared by Jessica, who supports the security law. Using a pseudonym for fear of suffering retaliation, she says the violent protests are affecting livelihoods and must stop. Stability, she feels, is key to Hong Kong’s economic future.

“How can we strip away the rights of business owners who want to still operate their businesses?” the 29-year-old questions. “They’re unable to bring home resources to provide for their family.”

Mr Chan thinks Hong Kong was “too free in the past” and had “gone too far” with allowing people to talk about gaining independence from China in future.

“We do have a young generation — you may call them naive or what — but then, some actually think that Hong Kong can survive on its own, which I think is still ridiculous,” he says.

With the new law, Mr Ho believes the authorities can “more effectively and, possibly, more surgically” stop people “inciting hatred across Hong Kong’s different groups”. He adds: “For that, Hong Kong will be a better place in the long run.”

For now, it remains unclear how the crisis will end. But it looks set to be a battle with little hope for a compromise.

“It’s true that we shouldn’t condone those violent acts, but you have to ask the question — what forced those young people to resort to what they’ve done? There are far more serious and deep-rooted causes,” says Prof Chan.

“If we don’t address those issues, a high-handed, draconian law would never resolve the issues.”

Watch this episode here. The programme Insight airs on Thursdays at 9pm.

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https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMieGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNoYW5uZWxuZXdzYXNpYS5jb20vbmV3cy9jbmFpbnNpZGVyL2NoaW5hLW5ldy1zZWN1cml0eS1sYXctc3Vuc2V0LWhvbmcta29uZy1yZXR1cm4tc3RhYmlsaXR5LWZ1dHVyZS0xMjk3NDk0NtIBAA?oc=5

2020-07-30 00:09:42Z
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