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Senin, 10 Juni 2024

Euro slides to one-month low after Macron calls snap French election - CNA

LONDON/ SINGAPORE :The euro fell sharply on Monday, hit by political uncertainty after gains by the far-right in voting for the European Parliament on Sunday prompted a bruised French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap national election.

The uncertainty in France adds one more element to what will be a busy week for markets with crucial U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday, the same day as a Federal Reserve policy meeting, and then the Bank of Japan rounding off the week.

The euro hit a one-month low against the dollar of $1.0748, and was last 0.35 per cent weaker at $1.0764.

The common currency's decline was across the board, it dropped 0.33 per cent on sterling and touched a new near two-year low of 84.51 pence, and was last down 0.22 per cent on the Swiss franc, and hit a seven-week low of 0.9639 francs.

"The election results over the weekend from the EU largely showed a pick up in support for the right wing parties, generally what was expected, but the surprise element is that Macron has reacted by calling a snap election, so that makes the market more nervous," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

"That's reinforced the sell off in the euro that we saw at the end of last week, and the other factor on top of that is the U.S. payrolls report was very strong, which increases the risk of a hawkish Fed policy signal when they meet on Wednesday."

The Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Data on Friday showed non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000 jobs last month, well above expectations in a Reuters poll for 185,000.

Markets are now pricing in 36 basis points of Fed cuts this year compared to nearly 50 bps - or at least two cuts - before the jobs data.

U.S. consumer inflation data will be another factor in the Fed's decision making. While no policy shift is expected at the meeting, the Fed will issue the latest batch of 'dot plots' policy makers' projections of the path of interest rates.

At the last such release in March, the median projection was for three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. Investors will be watching to see by how much that is revised down.

The paring back of expectations for rate cuts has been supporting the dollar for much of 2024, with the Japanese yen suffering particularly.

The dollar was last up 0.15 per cent on the Japanese currency at 157 yen, having jumped 0.7 per cent on Friday after the payrolls print. With sterling steady at $1.2722, the dollar index - which tracks the unit against six main peers - was up 0.08 per cent at 105.15. It touched a one-month top of 105.3 in early trading.

Japan will also be in focus this week, as the Bank of Japan is due to hold its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday and Friday, with the central bank widely expected to maintain short-term interest rates in a 0-0.1 per cent range.

Reuters reported last week that BOJ policymakers are brainstorming ways to slow its bond buying and may offer fresh guidance.

Speculation is building in the market that the BOJ may tweak its bond buying arrangements, and if the central bank fails to meet these bets, the yen could come under further pressure.

"Without any hawkish surprise, JPY may be sold initially following the policy announcement, similar to what we have seen after the past meetings," analysts at Nomura said in a note.

"Moreover, in the case of dovish surprises, for example, if the BOJ avoids decreasing its JGB purchases or decreases its (Japanese government bond) purchases only very slightly, there is a risk that USD/JPY could overshoot to possible intervention territory again, like we saw in April."

Japanese officials spent around 9.8 trillion yen ($62.46 billion) on currency intervention to support the currency in April and May.

($1 = 156.9 yen)

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2024-06-10 08:31:59Z
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Take home snapper, grouper and an 8kg mackerel from a fishing trip in Malaysia - The Straits Times

Journalist Sarah Stanley with her prized catch of the day (left), an 8kg mackerel that took all her upper body strength to heave up. ST PHOTOS: COURTESY OF SARAH STANLEY

SEDILI, Malaysia – The last time I did anything remotely close to fishing was in kindergarten, scooping up guppies from a small pond to take home as pets. From what I recall, the few I caught did not last long in my care.

With the bar set so low, I was hoping to reel in just one small, edible fish on a day fishing trip in Sedili, a coastal region of Kota Tinggi located around 90 minutes from Johor Bahru by car.

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2024-06-10 06:30:00Z
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Unlike the yakuza, Japan's latest crime menace is anonymous and faceless - The Straits Times

Former child actor Kirato Wakayama is suspected to be among a growing number of people doing work for quasi-gangster groups. PHOTO: THE_GOLDEN_DAWN/X

TOKYO – As a child actor, Kirato Wakayama was one of Japan’s most recognisable faces, starring in historical epics, the Kamen Rider superhero series, and the 2014 live-action remake of Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki’s Kiki’s Delivery Service.

Now a young adult at 20, he is behind bars awaiting trial over his alleged role in the gruesome double murder of a Tokyo couple whose charred corpses were found in the woods of Nasu, 200km north of the capital, in April.

Wakayama, who is said to be in financial trouble, is suspected to be among a growing number of young people recruited for yamibaito (shady part-time work, in Japanese) with promises of a lofty payout for minimal work. Such work, however, is often illegal and runs the gamut from murder to armed robbery, scams and drug trafficking.

Much of the yamibaito is orchestrated by tokuryu (anonymous and fluid) quasi-gangster groups, which the traditional hierarchical yakuza syndicates have morphed into after stricter regulations against organised crime.

Dr Noboru Hirosue of Ryukoku University’s Criminology Research Centre told The Straits Times that a vast majority who tend to fall prey to yamibaito schemes are impressionable youth hailing from troubled backgrounds and aspiring to a glamorous lifestyle.

“But they are treated as disposable errand boys, and the masterminds do not care if they get arrested,” said the former probation officer in Japan’s Ministry of Justice.

He observed that people are reeled in either through vague recruitment advertisements on social media that do not explicitly mention what the job entails, or through invitations by friends or acquaintances.

Such crimes are posing a growing challenge for the Japanese law enforcement authorities and a threat to civic order. In 2023, there were 19,033 cases associated with the tokuryu, up 8.3 per cent from 2022.

Many cases made front-page headlines: the heist of a luxury watch shop in Tokyo’s Ginza in broad daylight in May 2023, for instance, and a spate of violent robberies throughout Japan orchestrated by the notorious Luffy crime syndicate from behind bars in the Philippines in recent years.

Among the runners arrested for yamibaito were a 23-year-old former member of the Self-Defence Forces, a 22-year-old former nursery school teacher, and even high-school students. Some were older and saddled with debt, like a 36-year-old real estate firm employee, and even a 72-year-old woman whose assignment was to con another retiree of her ATM card.

Yet the shapeshifting nature of the crime groups makes it difficult to track down the masterminds, who are shrouded in secrecy. They seldom meet their charges, and use burner phones and apps which offer anonymity like Signal and Telegram.

Meanwhile, the tasks are divided up among the runners, who would often be assembled randomly without knowing one another, and the group is disbanded once the deed is done.

Kyushu University Professor Koji Tabuchi, a published author on criminal procedure law, said: “Because these recruits, who are employed for specific roles, do not know the overall structure of the group, including who was calling the shots, it makes it difficult to trace the masterminds.”

The growth of the tokuryu comes as the yakuza wanes, with numbers more than halving over a decade to 20,400 in 2023, according to Japan’s National Police Agency (NPA). At its peak in 1963, its numbers were at 184,100.

The NPA, as well as criminologists, attributed this to legislation in 2011 to combat organised crime, with yakuza members barred from opening bank accounts and renting apartments, among other things.

But former police investigator Yu Inamura told ST that this had an unintended effect: “This is a prime example of a cat-and-mouse chase. To evade the law, criminal groups changed their form and went underground.”

Now the director of the Japan Counter-Intelligence Association consultancy, Mr Inamura warned that the situation will likely worsen: “There is no silver bullet to eradicate this.”

He noted that many runners felt trapped and unable to back out even if they had second thoughts, because they had given their personal information to tokuryu groups, which would then threaten to inflict harm on them or their family members.

Dr Hirosue felt the police must do more to raise awareness of the risks of accepting yamibaito or being involved in the tokuryu, such as direct outreach on channels that are often used by young people.

There should also be focus on rehabilitation, he noted, given that many delinquents end up in a “very vicious cycle” because they are unable to integrate into society upon release.

In Wakayama’s case, he was among six people arrested for the murder of Mr Ryutaro Takarajima, 55, and his wife, Sachiko, 56, who ran multiple restaurants in the bustling Ameyoko in Tokyo’s Ueno district.

The police have attributed the incident to bad blood within the family, with the alleged mastermind being Seiha Sekine, the 32-year-old partner of the couple’s daughter.

Wakayama and his friend, South Korean national Kang Gwang-gi, 20, were said to have been offered 5 million yen (S$43,100) to murder the couple and dispose of their corpses.

The Yomiuri newspaper warned of an “extremely serious situation” in an editorial on June 3: “Casually accepting offers on social media simply for a reward can lead to irreversible consequences. People need to know that there is no such thing as easy money.”

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2024-06-10 05:00:00Z
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Minggu, 09 Juni 2024

Euro slips to one-month low as Macron calls French election - CNA

SINGAPORE : The euro fell on Monday as the French President Emmanuel Macron called a shock election after being trounced in the European Union vote by the far-right, while the dollar was steady ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting later in the week.

The euro fell to $1.0764, its lowest since May 9, in early trading in Asia. It was last down 0.24 per cent at $1.0776 as investors weighed the implications of renewed political uncertainty in the euro zone's second-biggest economy in a key election year.

Eurosceptic nationalists made the biggest gains in European Parliament elections in the Sunday vote, an aggregated exit poll showed, prompting Macron to take a risky gamble to try to reestablish his authority.

"The prospects of a far right victory in France's snap elections may keep the euro under pressure in the near term," said Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief economist at Bank Of Singapore.

"But the exchange rate is still more likely to be influenced by this week's U.S. inflation data and FOMC meeting."

The European Central Bank cut rates last week in a well-telegraphed move, but offered few hints about the outlook for monetary policy given that inflation is still above target.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 105.09, the highest since May 30, after rising 0.8 per cent on Friday following data that showed the world's largest economy created a lot more jobs than expected in May.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls expanded by 272,000 jobs last month, data showed, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 185,000.

Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets for North America at Validus Risk Management, said recently the U.S. labour market data has been showing some signs of softening, supporting discussions of rate cuts in the second half of 2024.

"But this result will likely take the steam out of that conversation. The Fed has shown patience in waiting for the confidence that inflation will fully return to target before signalling rate cuts, and that caution seems warranted."

The jobs data led traders to once again shift their expectations of when the Fed will cut rates and by how much. Markets are now pricing in 36 basis points of cuts this year compared to nearly 50 bps - or at least two cuts - before the jobs data.

The chances of a rate cut in September are now at roughly 50 per cent, from around 70 per cent late on Thursday.

The Fed is not expected to make any change at its policy meeting this week but the focus will be on the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and changes to economic projections from the policymakers. U.S. inflation data is also due on Wednesday.

"We suspect that the median dot will fall from three cuts to less than two. A hawkish hold?," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

The Bank of Japan is due to hold its two-day monetary policy meeting this week, with the central bank widely expected to maintain short-term interest rates in a 0-0.1 per cent range.

The policymakers are brainstorming ways to slow its bond buying and may offer fresh guidance as early as this week, sources familiar with its thinking told Reuters, in what would be a first step to reducing its almost $5 trillion balance sheet.

The Japanese yen weakened to 156.95 in early trading on Monday. The currency remains close to the 34-year trough beyond 160 per dollar reached at the end of April, which prompted Japanese officials to spend some 9.8 trillion yen ($62.46 billion) intervening in the currency market to support it.

Sterling was flat at $1.2723 having touched $1.2700, its lowest in a week earlier in the session.

($1 = 156.9000 yen)

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2024-06-10 01:19:27Z
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Israeli centrist minister Gantz quits Netanyahu government - The Straits Times

With Israeli minister Benny Gantz (above) gone, PM Benjamin Netanyahu would lose the backing of a centrist bloc that has helped broaden support for the government in Israel and abroad. PHOTO: REUTERS

JERUSALEM - Israeli minister Benny Gantz announced his resignation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s emergency government on June 9, withdrawing the only centrist power in the embattled leader’s far-right coalition amid a months-long war in Gaza.

The departure of Mr Gantz’s centrist party will not pose an immediate threat to the government. But it could have a serious impact nonetheless, leaving Mr Netanyahu reliant on hardliners, with no end in sight to the Gaza war and a possible escalation in fighting with Lebanese Hezbollah.

In May, Mr Gantz presented Mr Netanyahu with a June 8 deadline to come up with a clear day-after strategy for Gaza, where Israel has been pressing a devastating military offensive against the ruling Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Mr Netanyahu brushed off the ultimatum soon after it was given.

On June 9, Mr Gantz said politics was clouding fateful strategic decisions in Mr Netanyahu’s cabinet. Quitting while hostages were still in Gaza and soldiers fighting there was an excruciating decision, he said.

“Netanyahu is preventing us from advancing toward true victory,” Mr Gantz said in a televised news conference. “That is why we are leaving the emergency government today, with a heavy heart but with full confidence.”

Mr Netanyahu responded in a social media post, telling Mr Gantz it was no time to abandon the battlefront.

With Mr Gantz gone, Mr Netanyahu would lose the backing of a centrist bloc that has helped broaden support for the government in Israel and abroad, at a time of increasing diplomatic and domestic pressure eight months into the Gaza war.

While his coalition remains in control of 64 of parliament’s 120 seats, Mr Netanyahu will now have to rely more heavily on the political backing of ultra-nationalist parties, whose leaders angered Washington even before the war and who have since called for a complete Israeli occupation of Gaza.

This would likely increase strains already apparent in relations with the United States and intensify public pressure at home, with the months-long military campaign still not achieving its stated goals - the destruction of Hamas and the return of more than 100 remaining hostages held in Gaza.

Polls have shown Mr Gantz, a former army commander and defence minister, to be the most formidable political rival to Netanyahu, whose image as a security hawk was shattered by the Oct 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.

Warning that the conflict in Gaza could take years, he urged Mr Netanyahu to agree on an election date in the autumn, to avoid further political infighting at a time of national emergency.

Mr Gantz joined a unity government soon after Oct 7 as part of Mr Netanyahu’s inner war cabinet where he, Mr Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant alone had votes.

On June 9, Mr Gantz described Mr Gallant, who has sparred with Mr Netanyahu and some ultra-nationalists ministers, as a brave leader and called on him “to do the right thing”, though he did not elaborate on what that meant.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir demanded Mr Gantz’s now vacant seat at the war cabinet soon after the resignation was announced.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said in a statement Mr Gantz was giving Israel’s enemies what they want.

Asked whether he was worried about his departure impacting Israel’s standing abroad, Mr Gantz said Mr Gallant and Mr Netanyahu both know “what should be done.”

“Hopefully they will stick to what should be done and then it will be okay,” he said. REUTERS

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2024-06-09 18:08:14Z
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India's Modi sworn in as prime minister for historic third term - CNA

Modi's new term as prime minister, therefore, is likely to be fraught with challenges on building consensus on contentious political and policy issues in the face of different interests of regional parties and a stronger opposition, analysts say.

Some analysts worry that the fiscal balance in the world's fastest-growing economy could also come under pressure due to demands for higher development funds for states ruled by the NDA's regional partners and a possible push by BJP to spend more on welfare to woo back voters it lost in this year's election.

Modi, whose election campaign was marked by religious rhetoric and criticism of the opposition for allegedly favouring India's 200 million minority Muslims, has adopted a more conciliatory tone since the shock result.

"We have won the majority ... but to run the country it is unanimity that is crucial ... we will strive for unanimity," he said on Friday after the NDA formally named him coalition head.

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2024-06-09 15:27:57Z
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Israel pounds central Gaza as Palestinian death toll in hostage rescue raid rises to 274 - The Straits Times

A Palestinian child sits on top of belongings fleeing Rafah due to an Israeli military operation in the southern Gaza Strip on June 7. PHOTO: REUTERS

CAIRO - Israeli forces pounded central Gaza anew on June 9, a day after killing 274 Palestinians during a hostage rescue raid, and tanks advanced into further areas of Rafah in a bid to seal off part of the southern city, residents and Hamas media said.

Palestinians remained in shock over the death toll on June 8, the worst over a 24-hour period of the Gaza war for months and including many women and children, Palestinian medics said.

In an update on June 9, Gaza’s Health Ministry said 274 Palestinians were killed – up from 210 it reported the day earlier – and 698 were injured when Israeli special force commandos stormed into the densely populated Al-Nuseirat camp to rescue four hostages held since October by Hamas militants.

Israel’s military said a special forces officer was killed in exchanges of fire with militants emerging from cover in residential blocks, and that it knew of “under 100” Palestinians killed, though not how many of them were militants or civilians.

On June 9, three Palestinians were killed and several hurt in an Israeli air strike on a house in Al-Bureij in the central Gaza Strip, while tanks shelled parts of nearby Al-Maghazi and Al-Nuseirat. All are built-up, historic refugee camps.

The Israeli military said in a statement its forces were continuing operations east of Bureij and the city of Deir al-Balah in the centre of the coastal enclave, killing several Palestinian gunmen and destroying militant infrastructure.

Israel sent forces into Rafah in May in what it called a mission to wipe out Hamas’ last intact combat units after eight months of war in which Israeli forces have bombed much of the rest of Gaza to rubble while advancing against fierce resistance.

Israeli tank forces have since seized Gaza’s entire border strip with Egypt running through Rafah to the Mediterranean coast and invaded several districts of the city, prompting around one million displaced people who had been sheltering in Rafah to flee elsewhere.

Israeli tanks advance further in Rafah

On June 9, tanks advanced into two new districts in an apparent effort to complete the encirclement of the entire eastern side of Rafah, touching off clashes with dug-in Hamas-led armed groups, according to residents trapped in their homes.

As of June 5, all but around 100,000 displaced people who took refuge in eastern Rafah after fleeing Israeli offensives further north in Gaza had left, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

“All UNRWA shelters in Rafah have been vacated. Many of the people who were based in Rafah have fled up the coast seeking safer locations in both Khan Younis and the middle area (of Gaza),” UNRWA said in a statement.

Palestinian medics said an Israeli air strike on a house in Tel Al-Sultan in western Rafah killed two people.

The Israeli military said troops of its 162nd division were raiding some districts of Rafah where they had located “numerous additional terror tunnel shafts, mortars, and (other) weapons” belonging to Palestinian Islamist militants.

Hamas precipitated the war with a lightning cross-border attack into Israel on Oct 7, killing around 1,200 people and seizing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. About half the hostages were freed during a brief November truce.

Israel's ensuing air and ground war in Gaza has killed at least 37,084 Palestinians, the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory said in its June 9 update. The ministry says thousands more dead are feared buried under the rubble.

Attempts by the United States and regional countries to broker a deal that would release all remaining hostages in return for a ceasefire have repeatedly stumbled on Israeli and Hamas intransigence over terms for an end to the war.

Gaza’s conflict has destabilised the wider Middle East, drawing in Hamas’ main backer Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which has been clashing with Israel along its northern border for months, raising fears of all-out war. REUTERS

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2024-06-09 10:58:09Z
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