Commentary: Thailand's military machinations will define post-election political manoeuvring - CNA

Prawit-loyalist Assistant Army Chief General Suksan Nongbualuang has a chance to beat out Jaroenchai as Army Commander, after which Pana would succeed him. Should Pita or Srettha become prime minister, they would likely prefer the weaker General Ukrit Boontanonda to be army chief.

But a military selection board, dominated by arch-royalist service chiefs, votes on promotions above the level of general and it is doubtful that Ukrit would get the nod. Moreover, though Pita or Srettha could try to cancel Prayut’s reshuffle, Jaroenchai, as Deputy Army Commander, would simply become the acting chief and only he or Suksan could pass the board. 

The leadership of Thailand’s army-dominant military will not be obedient to progressive civilian leaders and look set to oppose any reformist measures by Move Forward or Pheu Thai.

Thailand’s progressive 2023 election winners are confronted by a gauntlet of obstacles. Move Forward and Pheu Thai face cases before the Election Commission and must pass the junta-appointed Senate. 

An alternative coalition comprising only conservative parties or Pheu Thai with conservative parties could easily form, especially if the Election Commission disqualifies Move Forward MPs. 

If a progressive prime minister takes office, Thailand will likely look forward to growing pandemonium. Meanwhile, caretaker Prime Minister Prayut will use the reshuffle to ensure that the military leadership remains firmly independent of elected civilian control for years to come.

Dr Paul Chambers is Lecturer at the Centre of ASEAN Community Studies, Naresuan University, Thailand. This commentary first appeared on East Asia Forum.

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2023-06-27 22:11:08Z
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Vladimir Putin thanks Russian army for stopping 'civil war' - CNA

PILOTS KILLED BY MUTINEERS

Putin told those assembled on the Kremlin's Cathedral Square on Tuesday that an unspecified number of Russian military pilots had been killed when trying to stop the advance of the mutineers - who wanted to oust the top military brass over what they said was their incompetence and corruption - on Moscow.

"In the confrontation with the insurgents our comrades-in-arms, the aviators died," said Putin.

"They did not falter and carried out their orders and their military duty with honour."

Putin then asked for a minute's silence to honour the dead pilots.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, whose removal Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had demanded, was present on the square.

Putin said that Russia's military-security apparatus had ensured that key command centres and strategic defence facilities had kept functioning and had been protected during the mutiny and that the security of border regions was guaranteed.

There has been no need, he said, to withdraw combat units from what he called the zone when Moscow is carrying out its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The mutineers and the people he said had been "dragged into the rebellion" had seen that the army and the people were not on their side, said Putin.

"The rapid and accurate deployment of law enforcement units made it possible to halt the extremely dangerous development of the situation in the country and to prevent casualties among the civilian population," he said.

After he had finished speaking the Russian national anthem, which shares the same music as the Soviet one, was played.

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2023-06-27 11:57:00Z
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Russia preparing to take over Wagner's heavy weapons - CNA

Putin on Monday accused Ukraine and its Western allies of wanting Russians to "kill each other" during the revolt, which stunned the country.

In his first address to the nation since the rebels pulled back, Putin said he had issued orders to avoid bloodshed and granted amnesty to the Wagner fighters.

Prigozhin had earlier defended his aborted mutiny as a bid to save his mercenary outfit and expose the failures of Russia's military leadership - but not to challenge the Kremlin.

The rogue warlord's first audio message since calling off his troops' advance on Moscow was released as Russian officials attempted to present the public with a return to business as usual, with authorities in the capital standing down their enhanced security regime.

Prigozhin, who did not reveal from where he was speaking, said in an online audio message that his revolt was intended to prevent his Wagner force from being dismantled, and bragged that the ease with which it had advanced on Moscow exposes "serious security problems".

"We went to demonstrate our protest and not to overthrow power in the country," Prigozhin said, boasting that his men had "blocked all military infrastructure" including air bases on their route before they stopped 200km from Moscow.

Prighozin called off the advance and pulled out of a military base his men had seized in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, a nerve centre of the war in Ukraine, late on Saturday after mediation efforts from Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko.

Saturday's extraordinary sequence of events has been seen internationally as Russia's most serious security crisis in decades. Wagner shot down six Russian helicopters and a command and control plane during their advance, according to Russian military bloggers.

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2023-06-27 10:04:00Z
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Hong Kong high-rise aims to become 'village' of the dead - CNA

Kirchhoff said his design was inspired by traditional Chinese graveyards, which are often perched on mountainsides. His columbarium carried over those undulating lines, greenery and textures of hewn rock.

Ashes are stored in ornate compartments, some as small as 26cm by 34cm, that line the walls of air-conditioned chambers.

Kirchhoff said he designed rooms on each floor to provide intimacy, in contrast to the cramped confines of public columbariums, which he said feel like being in a "warehouse".

"How do we maintain quality of life and dignity for the people in this high density?" he asked.

"Is it just a shoebox or is there something else?"

URN SPACE SHORTAGE

Much like apartments in Hong Kong, rent for the units is not cheap, putting them beyond the reach of most people.

A basic two-person option at Shan Sum is sold for US$58,000 while the top-tier package, meant for a whole family, costs nearly US$3 million.

The median monthly household income in Hong Kong is currently around US$3,800, according to government data.

Places like Shan Sum were created in response to Hong Kong's shortage of urn spaces a decade ago.

At the time, cremated remains were often stored in drawers at funeral parlours for years while waiting for spots to open up, or were housed in unlicensed columbariums in temples or refurbished factory buildings.

Historian Chau Chi-fung, who wrote a book on Hong Kong's funeral practices, said the seeds of the crisis were sown decades prior by the British colonial administration, before the city was handed over to China in 1997.

"Laws at the time were strict about how to treat dead bodies, but once they were turned to ash, the government did not have a comprehensive policy for them," he told AFP.

The ethnic Chinese population in Hong Kong historically preferred burials, but the government popularised cremation in the 1960s - a shift seen in dense urban centres across Asia.

Now around 95 per cent of Hong Kong's dead are cremated each year, which Chau attributed to changing social mores.

The government estimates that deaths will increase by 14 per cent to 61,100 per year by 2031.

Officials say that the city is prepared for the uptick, with about 25 per cent vacancy among the current 425,000 public columbarium spots and more public and private supply in the pipeline.

"The situation has improved compared to a few years ago... The problem has been eased, but not solved," Chau said.

"OCEAN VIEW"

Wing Wong, 43, last year laid her father to rest at Tsang Tsui Columbarium, a sprawling 4,800sq m complex in Hong Kong's northwestern corner that began service in 2021.

She said her experience was a far cry from the horror stories seen in headlines years ago.

"Losing a loved one was painful enough. It would be a torment for family members if they couldn't find a place for the ashes, with no idea how long they needed to wait," she said.

Wong said her family chose the government-run location for its good feng shui, adding that its affordable pricing meant they had no incentive to consider private options.

"My father once said he wanted an ocean view... His (niche) was angled towards the sea, and we felt it was what he would have wanted."

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2023-06-27 02:51:00Z
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Russia's Putin says he let mutiny continue to avoid bloodshed - CNA

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a defiant televised address on Monday evening (Jun 26), saying he had deliberately let Saturday's 24-hour mutiny by the Wagner militia go on as long as it did to avoid bloodshed, and that it had reinforced national unity.

The statement, his first on the issue since he spoke on Saturday promising to crush the mutiny, appeared intended to draw a line under an event that numerous Western leaders saw as exposing Putin's vulnerability since invading Ukraine 16 months ago.

Wagner's fighters, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, succeeded in taking control of the city of Rostov-on-Don with its military command centre steering the Ukraine campaign, and driving an armed convoy across Russia to within 200km of Moscow.

"From the very beginning of the events, steps were taken on my direct instruction to avoid serious bloodshed," Putin said.

"Time was needed, among other things, to give those who had made a mistake a chance to come to their senses, to realise that their actions were firmly rejected by society, and that the adventure in which they had been involved had tragic and destructive consequences for Russia and for our state."

Putin made no mention of Prigozhin, who had demanded that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, come to Rostov to speak to him. Prigozhin called for both of them to be dismissed.

Nor did Putin mention any planned personnel changes at the Defence Ministry, although at around 11pm Moscow time he was shown on television addressing a meeting of heads of his security departments, including Shoigu.

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2023-06-26 21:24:00Z
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Russia defence minister shown visiting troops in first appearance since Wagner mutiny - CNA

MOSCOW: Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was shown speaking to troops in a video released by his ministry on Monday (Jun 26), his first known appearance in public since a mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group.

There was no sound on the video and it was not immediately clear where or when the visit had taken place.

Shoigu was shown flying in a plane with a colleague and hearing reports at a command post run by Russia's Zapad (West) military grouping.

The Defence Ministry TV channel, Zvezda, said Shoigu, who looked physically unharmed and calm, had listened to a report by Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov, the group's commander, about the current situation on the front lines in Ukraine.

In his mutiny during which he seized control of Russia's military headquarters in southern Russia, renegade Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin had demanded that Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, be handed over to him so that he could "restore justice".

Prigozhin accused both men of gross incompetence and corruption and had long been agitating for their removal.

Gerasimov has not been seen since in public, and there was no word from the Kremlin about any new personnel changes when it described the deal that had ended the mutiny.

The Kremlin said the question of personnel changes was the sole prerogative of President Vladimir Putin and could hardly have been part of any deal.

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2023-06-26 10:04:00Z
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Is Putin's power eroding? What's next for Russia's president after the Wagner rebellion - CNA

The Wagner mercenary group's mutiny marked the biggest challenge yet to Russian President Vladimir Putin's long rule and the country's most serious security crisis since he came to power in 1999.

The aborted weekend revolt led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin - who declared a sudden pull-back after marching towards Moscow - damaged Putin's image, boosted morale among Ukrainian troops and generated confusion.

But has it weakened Putin’s grip on power? And how might it affect the course of the war in Ukraine?

Here is what analysts have to say.

What does the revolt say about Putin's position?

In a fiery speech on Saturday, Putin vowed to punish the mutiny's perpetrators, accusing them of treason and for pushing Russia to the brink of civil war.

Just hours later, however, he had accepted a deal brokered by Minsk granting an amnesty for the Wagner chief and his men, and exile to Belarus for Prigozhin himself.

This response could have harmed Putin's standing, said William Alberque, the director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

"This episode weakens the credibility of Putin, who appeared to be in panic on television on Saturday," he said.

"Everyone in Moscow is wondering: 'If it was a five-minute insurrection, why did the president talk about civil war?'"

Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at IISS and a former British ambassador to Belarus, said that the incident "has sowed really profound anxiety across Russia's elites".

"It's one more example, after the launching of the invasion against Ukraine itself and the disastrous conduct of the war, one more example of Putin just being out of time and having consistently poor judgment and making mistakes, and the history of other times and places shows that an apparently very, very strong personalistic leader of the Putin type can, with great suddenness, lose authority and power if a critical mass of elites ceased to have confidence in his ability to keep the ship of state going and to protect their interests," he said.

"So the immediate crisis may be averted, but the longer-term consequences will ripple out and are changing Russia's political landscape, I would say."

"The most important thing is that the failures of Russia's war in Ukraine are reverberating increasingly within Russia itself and beginning to create instability and uncertainty and division at home," Gould-Davies added.

Speaking to CNA on Sunday, senior adviser on Russia and Europe at the United States Institute of Peace Donald N Jensen said that the future looked bleak for Putin.

"We are not yet seeing the whole drama play out. This is just some deal that we don't even hear the details about. I think in the coming weeks and months, it's going to play out with more specificity," said Jensen, who also served as a diplomat at the US embassy in Moscow.

"The big loser is Putin. I think we now have to talk about the end, perhaps, of his political career in the coming weeks and months. This has not been a good episode for the Russian president."

Pointing to the scenes on the streets of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday, Jensen also spoke about a lack of unity in Russia.

"A lot of people were taking selfie pictures, a lot of people were friendly towards the Prigozhin-Wagner troops – this is not a good sign," said Jensen.

"Putin - at a time when the country is under great stress - needs a unified home front. And clearly, the home front in Russia is not unified anymore."

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2023-06-26 07:11:37Z
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