Taliban officials have said the problems will ease once a new government is in place to restore order to the market and have appealed to other countries to maintain economic relations. But the structural problems run deep.
Even when its economy was floating on a tide of foreign money, growth was not keeping pace with the rise in Afghanistan's population.
Apart from illegal narcotics, the country has no significant exports to generate revenue, and aid, which accounted for more than 40 per cent of economic output, has abruptly disappeared.
A new central bank chief has been appointed but bankers outside Afghanistan said it would be difficult to get the financial system running again without the specialists who joined the exodus out of Kabul.
"I don't know how they will manage it because all the technical staff, including senior management, has left the country," one banker said.
In a sign of the pressure on Afghanistan's currency reserves, the Taliban have announced a ban on taking dollars and valuable artefacts out of the country and said anyone intercepted would have their goods confiscated.
Some US$9 billion in foreign reserves is held outside the country and out of reach of the Taliban's embryonic government, which has still not been officially appointed, let alone recognized internationally.
To add to the problems, a recent suicide attack by an Afghan offshoot of Islamic State on crowds waiting to get a place on evacuation flights brought a chilling reminder that the bombings that were a regular feature of life in the past may not be over.
"The market situation had slightly improved in the last few days," said one vendor at a Kabul street market where people sell household goods to raise cash. "But it completely collapsed after the suicide attack near the airport."
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Ronney Ng, who sells souvenirs in Singapore's Chinatown, can hardly wait for the country to reopen its borders now that 80% of its population has been inoculated against COVID-19 - one of the world's best vaccination rates.
"Our business depends almost entirely on tourists; it is very tough for us if they are not visiting Singapore," said Ng, who added that he can no longer afford three meals a day.
The regional travel hub, with about 5.7 million residents, is among the first countries to reopen in the region, albeit slowly. Masks are still mandatory in almost all public settings, group sizes are limited and a contact-tracing app is required.
Starting next week, Singapore will allow quarantine-free entry to vaccinated visitors from just two countries: Germany and Brunei.
Although such a guarded approach is likely to delay recovery of the tourism industry, other nations with low infection rates will be watching.
"Singapore is a good example for Australia to pay attention to because we are probably going to be in a similar situation - we need to open up and we need to do it in a way that COVID-19 is going to become endemic," said Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Canberra Hospital.
Others in Asia Pacific such as New Zealand and Taiwan also had early success against the virus, but remain shut.
Israel, with a population of 9.3 million and a high vaccination rate, reinstated many curbs, including mandatory masks indoors and quarantine for most arrivals, after a surge in cases due to the Delta variant.
Meanwhile the United Kingdom is sticking to its easing plans, including looser quarantine rules, despite a high number of daily cases.
STEP BY STEP
"We will move step by step - not in one big bang like some countries, but cautiously and progressively, feeling our way forward," Singapore's prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, said on Sunday, reiterating that it was not possible to bring cases down to zero even with long lockdowns.
New daily cases have stayed over 100 in the last week, close to recent peaks that had prompted tightened curbs. But the number of those seriously ill is low; on Sept. 1, 19 patients required oxygen and five were in intensive care, according to government data.
In Singapore, most of those 12 and older have been vaccinated, and the government is looking at inoculating children early next year. After a slow start, rates among those 70 and older have been pushed up to 84%.
"If you even have 20% of your population not protected, that is a real challenge in terms of this virus. It will still cause potentially increased occurrence of cases and hospitalisations," said Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota, who praised Singapore for information sharing on vaccine breakthrough cases.
Vaccination is the pillar of Singapore's reopening plans, and, with an economy that shrank by a record 5.4% last year, it cannot afford to stay closed for too long.
India and Singapore's Southeast Asian neighbours are still battling high infection numbers and low vaccination rates, and the odds of welcoming many travellers from China, with its zero-COVID strategy, are low.
"Even if you're in rich countries like Singapore and Australia ... it's in all our self interests to make sure we get vaccinations to everybody," Collignon said.
In 2019, Singapore welcomed a record 19.1 million travellers - more than three times its total population, with China, Indonesia and India contributing 40%.
Sung Eun Jung at Oxford Economics estimates travel and tourism contribute as much as 11% to Singapore's economy. But Singapore's strict reopening plans mean the industry may reach pre-pandemic levels only by 2023, she said.
The country's economy is forecast to grow 6%-7% this year after 2020's record recession.
For now, the hard-hit tourism industry does not dare feel too hopeful. Several shops in Singapore's most-visited spots only have tales of woe - tanked sales, store closings and job losses.
Amir Khan, who sold carpets to customers from Southeast Asia, Europe and China before the pandemic, said there are days his store in a Malay heritage enclave does not have a single customer.
"The slower the reopening is, the longer we suffer," Khan said.
(Reporting by Aradhana Aravindan and Chen Lin in Singapore. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
US officials have repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting the Afghan Taliban, which fought in a civil war in the mid-1990s before seizing power in 1996.
Islamabad, one of the few capitals to recognise the Taliban government that was toppled in 2001, denies the charge.
Pakistan's government has said that its influence over the movement has waned, particularly since the Taliban grew in confidence once Washington announced the date for the complete withdrawal of US and other foreign troops.
The official, who has direct knowledge of the country's security decisions, said Pakistan planned to send security and intelligence officials, possibly even the head of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, to Kabul to help the Taliban reorganise the Afghan military.
An Afghan Taliban spokesperson did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment on security relations with Pakistan.
PAKISTAN EXPECTS TALIBAN COOPERATION
Though recognition of a new Taliban government was not immediately on the table, the official said, the world should not abandon Afghanistan.
"Whether we recognise the Taliban government or not, stability in Afghanistan is very important."
The official warned that Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), a loosely-affiliated offshoot of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, was actively looking to launch attacks and recruit new fighters.
Left unhindered, it would almost certainly grow from relatively small numbers currently.
The United States recently launched two drone strikes targeting ISIS-K militants, including one in Kabul and one near the eastern border with Pakistan.
The strikes followed a pledge by President Joe Biden that the United States would hunt down the militants behind the recent suicide bombing.
The Taliban criticised the strikes as a "clear attack on Afghan territory".
Pakistan, whose armed forces also possess unmanned drones as well as conventional aircraft, will avoid intervening directly in Afghanistan if at all possible, said the official.
The Afghan Taliban have reassured their neighbour that they will not allow their territory to be used by anyone planning attacks on Pakistan or any other country.
But Islamabad expected the Afghan Taliban to hand over militants planning attacks against Pakistan, the official added, or at least force them from their mutual border, where Pakistani troops have been on high alert in recent weeks.
WASHINGTON: In the last call between US President Joe Biden and his Afghanistan counterpart before the Taliban seized control of the country, the leaders discussed military aid, political strategy and messaging tactics, but neither Biden nor Ashraf Ghani appeared aware of or prepared for the immediate danger of the entire country falling to insurgents, a transcript reviewed by Reuters shows.
The men spoke for roughly 14 minutes on Jul 23. On Aug 15, Ghani fled the presidential palace, and the Taliban entered Kabul. Since then, tens of thousands of desperate Afghans have fled and 13 US troops and scores of Afghan civilians were killed in a suicide bombing at the Kabul airport during the frenetic US military evacuation.
Reuters reviewed a transcript of the presidential phone call and has listened to the audio to authenticate the conversation. The materials were provided on condition of anonymity by a source who was not authorised to distribute it.
In the call, Biden offered aid if Ghani could publicly project he had a plan to control the spiralling situation in Afghanistan. “We will continue to provide close air support, if we know what the plan is,” Biden said. Days before the call, the US carried out air strikes to support Afghan security forces, a move the Taliban said was in violation of the Doha peace agreement.
The US president also advised Ghani to get buy-in from powerful Afghans for a military strategy going forward, and then to put a “warrior” in charge of the effort, a reference to Defense Minister General Bismillah Khan Mohammadi.
Biden lauded the Afghan armed forces, which were trained and funded by the U.S. government. “You clearly have the best military,” he told Ghani. “You have 300,000 well-armed forces versus 70-80,000 and they’re clearly capable of fighting well.” Days later, the Afghan military started folding across provincial capitals in the country with little fight against the Taliban.
In much of the call, Biden focused on what he called the Afghan government’s “perception” problem. “I need not tell you the perception around the world and in parts of Afghanistan, I believe, is that things are not going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban,” Biden said. “And there is a need, whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.”
Biden told Ghani that if Afghanistan’s prominent political figures were to give a press conference together, backing a new military strategy, “that will change perception, and that will change an awful lot I think".
The American leader’s words indicated he didn’t anticipate the massive insurrection and collapse to come 23 days later. “We are going to continue to fight hard, diplomatically, politically, economically, to make sure your government not only survives, but is sustained and grows,” said Biden.
The White House Tuesday declined to comment on the call.
After the call, the White House released a statement that focused on Biden’s commitment to supporting Afghan security forces and the administration seeking funds for Afghanistan from Congress.
Ghani told Biden he believed there could be peace if he could “rebalance the military solution". But he added, “We need to move with speed.”
“We are facing a full-scale invasion, composed of Taliban, full Pakistani planning and logistical support, and at least 10-15,000 international terrorists, predominantly Pakistanis thrown into this,” Ghani said. Afghan government officials, and US experts, have consistently pointed to Pakistani support for the Taliban as key to the group’s resurgence.
The Pakistani Embassy in Washington denies those allegations. “Clearly the myth of Taliban fighters crossing from Pakistan is unfortunately an excuse and an afterthought peddled by Mr Ashraf Ghani to justify his failure to lead and govern,” an embassy spokesman told Reuters.
Reuters tried to reach Ghani’s staff for this story, in calls and texts, with no success. The last public statement from Ghani, who is believed to be in the United Arab Emirates, came on Aug 18. He said he fled Afghanistan to prevent bloodshed.
By the time of the call, the United States was well into its planned withdrawal from Afghanistan, which Biden had postponed from the May date set by his predecessor, Donald Trump. The US military had closed its main Afghanistan air base, at Bagram, in early July.
As the two presidents spoke, Taliban insurgents controlled about half of Afghanistan's district centres, indicating a rapidly deteriorating security situation.
Afghanistan was promising a shift in its military strategy, to start focusing on protecting “population centres” – major cities rather than fighting to protect rural territories. Biden referred approvingly of that strategy. He said that doing so would help not just on the ground but in the “perception” internationally that was required to shore up world support for the Afghan government.
“I’m not a military guy, so I’m not telling you what a plan should precisely look like, you’re going to get not only more help, but you’re going to get a perception that is going to change …,” Biden said.Ghani, for his part, assured Biden that “your assurance of support goes a very long way to enable us, to really mobilise us in earnest.”
WASHINGTON (REUTERS) - United States President Joe Biden on Tuesday (Aug 31) defiantly rejected criticism of his decision to stick to a deadline to pull out of Afghanistan this week, a move that left up to 200 Americans in the country along with thousands of US-aligned Afghan citizens.
In a televised address, Mr Biden offered a sweeping defence of his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, saying he inherited an unstable situation from his predecessor, Republican Donald Trump, and that the 20-year war “should have ended long ago”.
“I was not going to extend this forever war, and I was not extending a forever exit,” he said, his voice rising with emotion as he spoke.
Mr Biden’s handling of the withdrawal has drawn sharp criticism from Republicans and his own Democrats as well as foreign allies, punctured his job approval ratings and raised questions about his credibility.
Of primary concern is the fate of Americans and Afghans who were not able to get on the last US flights out of Kabul airport this week after the Taliban took over the capital.
US officials believe 100 to 200 Americans remain in Afghanistan “with some intention to leave”, Mr Biden said.
He said most of those who remained were dual citizens and long-time residents who earlier had decided to stay, and added that the US was determined to get them out.
Many lawmakers had called on Mr Biden to extend the Aug 31 deadline to allow more Americans and Afghans to escape. He said on Tuesday it was not an arbitrary deadline, and that sticking to it was aimed at saving lives.
“I take responsibility for the decision. Now some say we should have started mass evacuations sooner and couldn’t this have been done in a more orderly manner. I respectfully disagree,” he said from the White House State Dining Room.
Mr Biden said a deal brokered by the Trump administration last year authorised the release of 5,000 prisoners, including some of the Taliban’s top war commanders.
“By the time I came to office, the Taliban was in its strongest military position since 2001, controlling or contesting nearly half of the country,” he said.
Even if evacuations had begun in June or July, Mr Biden said there still would have been a late rush to the airport by people wanting to leave.
He gave his strongest criticism to date of the ousted Afghan government’s inability to fight back against swift Taliban advances, which forced the US and its Nato allies into a hasty and humiliating exit.
But on Tuesday, Mr Biden said: “The people of Afghanistan watched their own government collapse and flee amid corruption and malfeasance, handing over their country to the Taliban.”
While most Americans agreed with him, the chaotic and deadly nature of that end will present fresh challenges in the months ahead.
Mr Biden’s presidency, which had been focused on fighting the coronavirus pandemic and rebuilding the economy, now faces political probes over the handling of the withdrawal as well as the logistical challenge of finding new homes for thousands of Afghans being moved to US military bases.
He also must contend with a surge in coronavirus infections, disasters like hurricanes and wildfires, and a series of difficult deadlines to get signature spending measures through Congress.
Republicans and some Democrats have expressed frustration and anger at how fast Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, the former leaders who were ousted by the US after the Sept 11, 2001, attacks, and what they call a botched withdrawal.
Republicans are expected to use the crisis to try to derail Mr Biden’s policy and legislative agenda and as a talking point in the 2022 mid-term elections. Republicans hope to take control of the Senate and House of Representatives from Mr Biden’s Democrats, which could hobble the second half of his presidential term.
Less than 40 per cent of Americans approve of Mr Biden’s handling of the withdrawal, and three quarters wanted US forces to remain in the country until all American civilians could get out, according to an opinion poll - by news agency Reuters and market research firm Ipsos - released on Monday.
Leading House Republicans, including the top Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee, Mr Michael McCaul, said they wrote on Monday to Mr Biden’s national security adviser, Mr Jake Sullivan, requesting details of the plan to repatriate Americans and evacuate others left behind.
“Congress has a right to know how these evacuations will be facilitated and conducted,” McCaul said in a statement.
