NEW DELHI: The Myanmar military’s justification for the coup are allegations of electoral fraud.
Prior to declaring a state of emergency on Feb 1, the military made three major demands of the National League for Democracy (NLD) government: To postpone the opening of parliament, disband the election commission and re-examine alleged voting irregularities under military supervision.
This angle has been widely reported following the coup. But little attention has been given to other potential ulterior motives of the military leadership, especially that of the commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, now the chair of the 11-member State Administrative Council, a new name of the military junta, of which eight are from the military.
The media in Myanmar has been told by the new government it should not report its actions as a coup. It also should not refer to it as a military junta.
The Ministry of Information said in a statement to the Myanmar Press Council on Feb 12 that such use of “incorrect words” by the media are “acts of instigation that may arouse civil unrest” and are “against publishing laws”.
Despite this warning, there has been, among others, one significant consistency in all the three military coups in the country’s history - 1962, 1988 and 2021.
Following the 1962 coup, the military formed a junta called the Revolutionary Council (RC); the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) following the 1988 coup, which was changed to the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in 1997; and now the State Administrative Council.
ENTERING POLITICS
Unlike his predecessors, Min Aung Hlaing has openly expressed his desire to enter politics after retiring from the military.
Months before the Nov 8 general election, Min Aung Hlaing in his June interview with a Russian weekly said: “The first priority is to successfully hold the 2020 elections. Then, if there is trust, we might also have to consider how we could participate in politics.”
He had also said in the past that his military leadership could be helpful in politics.
Myanmar military chief General Min Aung Hlaing declared that this time, things would be "different" from the army's previous 49-year reign, which ended in 2011 AFP/-
But the heavy defeat of the military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in the 2020 election suggested this prospect of him becoming President is almost zero.
The election results of 2015 and 2020 indicate the vast majority of the Myanmar electorates do not want or trust the military, its proxies or affiliates to rule the country.
Under such circumstances, the only possible way, under the military-drafted 2008 constitution, for Min Aung Hlaing to play a role in the civilian-led government is to be nominated as one of two vice-presidents reserved for the military.
Or to take charge of the ministries appointed by the military, that is, home, defence and border affairs.
But Min Aung Hlaing is unlikely to want any of these roles since that would be in essence a demotion. The role is also subordinate to the democratically elected or appointed civilian leaders.
RETURNING TO MILITARY RULE
The most practical way for Min Aung Hlaing to secure a position in politics he does crave is through undemocratic means. One such possibility is to establish a political environment similar to that leading up to the 2010 election.
Prior to the 2010 election, Aung San Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest by the SPDC regime. The authorities gave the NLD an option to expel her or de-register the party.
FILE PHOTO: Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's commander-in-chief, shakes hands with National League for Democracy (NLD) party leader Aung San Suu Kyi before their meeting in Hlaing's office at Naypyitaw December 2, 2015. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun/File Photo/File Photo
The party decided to de-register and boycott the election, along with some ethnic-based parties, mostly because of what it perceived as undemocratic election laws and partly because many of its prominent leaders were barred from the election.
This time around, at least until now, the military has brought two charges on Aung San Suu Kyi.
On Feb 3, she was charged with illegally possessing imported walkie-talkies, and on Feb 16, she was charged with violating the country’s Natural Disaster Law.
The charges on the walkie-talkies, used by her bodyguards, carries a maximum of two years in prison.
And the Natural Disaster Law, which has been used to prosecute people violating coronavirus restrictions, carries a maximum of three years in prison. But with the changes in the penal code constituted following the coup, the military can detain her indefinitely.
THE POLITICS BEHIND IT
While the military has its own reasons for doing what it does, history tells us that the authorities may use these charges to advance its political agenda.
While she is unlikely to be imprisoned like in the past, these charges may be used for the justification and extension of her house arrest way beyond any future election.
Protesters across Myanmar have particularly targeted army chief Min Aung Hlaing who is now in charge after the coup deposed the civilian leaders AFP/STR
During its first news conference on Feb 16 following the coup, military spokesman Brigadier-General Zaw Min Tun reiterated that the military will hand power back to the election winning party, without giving a timeline.
The military, which had announced earlier that the emergency rule will last for a year, may indeed hold another election at the end of the one year.
It is certain that under a free and fair election, the NLD is most likely to win again in a landslide. In fact, the coup is likely to strengthen the NLD’s support base. But what is not clear is what new electoral laws the military may pass.
It is possible that such amendments may include barring anyone charged with a crime from contesting the election, like it did in the 2010 election. Or it may force the NLD to choose between Aung San Suu Kyi and registering the party to contest the election.
If history is a precedent, it is likely that the NLD will boycott any such election that bars its leader. If the NLD decides to take that route, it will become a win-win situation for the military-backed political party - either the USDP or a new proxy party.
Such an election will guarantee Min Aung Hlaing or his nominee the country’s presidency.
The coup ensures that Min Aung Hlaing’s tenure, which is due to end in July this year, is now indefinitely extended, and perhaps it may also lead to his ascendency to the presidency - the highest office in the land.
In fact, there was speculation Aung San Suu Kyi may have to offer the military leader the office of the president in order to reach a compromise agreement between the two opposing camps. But it did not materialise and Min Aung Hlaing chose another route.
Time will tell if the coup is indeed an attempt of the military leadership, particularly Min Aung Hlaing's, to further entrench its position under a guided electoral democracy.
The initial signs show that the country is headed in that direction.
Dr Nehginpao Kipgen is a Political Scientist, Associate Professor and Executive Director at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University. He is the author of three books on Myanmar, including ‘Democratization of Myanmar’.
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TOKYO: The top diplomats of the United States, India, Japan and Australia on Thursday (Feb 18) sought an "urgent" return to democracy in Myanmar in four-way talks, the US State Department said.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his first joint talks with the so-called Quad discussed "the urgent need to restore the democratically elected government in Burma, and the priority of strengthening democratic resilience in the broader region," spokesman Ned Price said.
Myanmar's military has arrested civilian leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, and announced a year-long state of emergency, alleging that November's election was beset by fraud. The electoral commission dismissed the army's complaints.
Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Thursday he had agreed with his US, Indian and Australian counterparts that democracy must be restored quickly in Myanmar.
Motegi made his comment after the phone conversation with Blinken, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne.
Separately on Thursday, Britain announced it was imposing sanctions on three generals in Myanmar for serious human rights violations following the military coup.
"We, alongside our international allies will hold the Myanmar military to account for their violations of human rights and pursue justice for the Myanmar people," foreign minister Dominic Raab said.
Washington imposed new sanctions on the Myanmar military last week and has urged other UN members to follow suit.
Britain said it would enforce immediate asset freezes and travel bans against the three members of the Myanmar military: Minister of defence Mya Tun Oo, minister for home affairs Soe Htut and deputy minister for home affairs Than Hlaing.
Britain already had sanctions in force against 16 individuals from the Myanmar military.
In addition, further safeguards were being put in place to prevent British aid indirectly supporting the military-led government.
"Myanmar’s military and police have committed serious human rights violations, including violating the right to life, the right to freedom of assembly, the right not to be subject to arbitrary arrest or detention, and the right to freedom of expression," the government statement said.
Canada announced similar sanctions on nine Myanmar military officials on Thursday, saying the coup has led to mass detentions, the use of force and restrictions to democratic freedoms.
"We work alongside our international partners who call for the restoration of the democratically-elected government, and we echo their calls for the Myanmar military to release those who have been unjustly detained in the military takeover," Foreign Minister Marc Garneau said in a statement.
Meanwhile, the World Bank on Thursday said it is taking an "extra cautious" stance toward future engagement with Myanmar but is continuing to execute existing projects there.
World Bank President David Malpass told reporters that the multilateral development lender has no new Myanmar projects in the pipeline and will be looking for guidance from its shareholders as to how to move forward.
The bank had previously taken a cautious approach because of issues with Myanmar's treatment of Rohingya Muslims, he added.
SYDNEY: Facebook's decision to pull news content from its platform in Australi comes in response to legislation that would force tech giants to pay for sharing news content.
While Big Tech and media outlets have battled over the right to news content in other jurisdictions, Australia's looming law represents the most expansive reform and is being closely watched around the world.
Here is a look at what the proposed rules are, and what it might mean for users:
WHAT IS HAPPENING
After two decades of light-touch regulation, tech companies such as Google and Facebook are coming under increased government scrutiny.
In Australia, regulators have zeroed in on the firms' online advertising dominance and its impact on struggling news media.
According to Australia's competition watchdog, for every A$100 spent on online advertising, Google captures A$53, Facebook takes A$28 and the rest is shared among others.
To level the playing field, Australia wants Google and Facebook to pay for using expensive-to-produce news content in their searches and feeds.
WHAT WILL THE LEGISLATION DO?
The so-called Media Bargaining Code has been designed by the government and competition regulator to address this power imbalance.
Under the code, news outlets will be required to negotiate commercial deals individually or collectively with Facebook and Google. If they cannot reach an agreement, an arbitrator will decide whose offer is more reasonable.
If Facebook or Google break any resulting agreements, they can be fined up to A$10 million (US$7.4 million) in civil penalties.
The law also requires tech firms give media outlets notice when they change search algorithms in a way affecting the order in which content appears. They must also share their use of consumer data extracted from news content on their sites.
The proposed code will apply to Facebook and Google, although the regulator, which advised government on the legislation, has said it is likely other tech firms will be added.
HOW IS AUSTRALIA'S APPROACH DIFFERENT?
Australia has used competition law to draft the Media Bargaining Code, an approach the regulator has argued is much more effective than the copyright legislation being used in other jurisdictions, including the EU.
The difference between the two has been highlighted by the recent deals struck with Google by Australian publishers and by outlets in France, which is the first EU country to bring an EU directive on copyright into national law.
Australia's two largest free-to-air television broadcasters have struck deals collectively worth A$60 million (US$47 million) a year, according to media reports. That dwarfs the $76 million Google will split between 121 publishers in France over three years, which averages $209,000 a year per publisher, as reported by Reuters.
Australia's proposed legislation has reached a crunch point, with widespread support in parliament, where it is expected to be voted into law within days.
In recent years, traditional media companies operating in Australia have suffered huge hits to income streams, due to dwindling subscriptions and advertising.
After Facebook decided to pull the news plug on Thursday (Feb 18), Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison signalled his willingness to press ahead with the legislation regardless.
WHY IS IT GETTING WORLDWIDE ATTENTION?
Although the rules would only apply in Australia, regulators elsewhere are looking closely at whether the system works and can be applied in other countries.
Microsoft - which could gain market share for its Bing search engine - has backed the proposals and explicitly called for other countries to follow Australia's lead, arguing the tech sector needs to step up to revive independent journalism that "goes to the heart of our democratic freedoms".
European legislators have cited the Australian proposals favourably as they draft their own EU-wide digital market legislation.
Facebook's move has also raised questions about countries' "digital sovereignty" after some emergency response Facebook pages used to alert the public to fires, floods and other disasters were inadvertently hit.
The company quickly moved to amend that mistake, but the incident left questions about whether social media platforms should be able to unilaterally remove services that are part of crisis response and may even be considered critical infrastructure.
WHY ARE GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK OPPOSED?
More broadly, Facebook and Google are pushing back against a slew of potential regulation worldwide that threatens to undermine business models that have allowed them to become some of the biggest and most profitable companies in the world.
Concretely, both companies say they do not have a problem paying for news - and, in fact, both already pay some news organisations for content.
Their main objection is being told how much they have to pay. That goes much further than European legislation, which encourages deals between social media and traditional media companies.
Under the Australian rules, an independent arbiter could decide if the deals reached are fair, to ensure the tech firms are not using their online advertising power to dictate terms.
Opponents have argued the new rules amount to a gift from Australia's conservative government to allies in Rupert Murdoch's News Corp, the country's biggest media group, to prop up his struggling newspapers.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR ME?
World Wide Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee has warned introducing the precedent of charging for links could open a Pandora's Box of monetary claims that would break the internet.
"Links are fundamental to the web," he told an Australian Senate inquiry. "If this precedent were followed elsewhere, it could make the web unworkable around the world."
Both Facebook and Google have argued that the proposals would spell the end of some of their most popular products.
But Facebook's move to block news in Australia would be difficult to repeat in larger markets such as the United States and Europe as a whole - potentially hitting the company's bottom line.
Google Australia had made similar threats to pull its search service in Australia, but pulled back from the brink - instead making deals to pay several Australian media groups.
YANGON: Protesters demonstrated across Myanmar again on Thursday (Feb 18) to denounce the Feb 1 coup and the arrest of elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and police forcefully dispersed crowds, using water cannon in the capital and catapults in a northern town.
The daily protests and strikes that have paralysed many government offices show no sign of easing despite a junta promise of a new election and appeals for civil servants to return to work and threats of action if they do not.
"I don't want to wake up in a dictatorship. We don't want to live the rest of our lives in fear," said Ko Soe Min, who was out in the main city of Yangon where tens of thousands took to the streets a day after some of the biggest protests yet.
Big crowds returned to Yangon's central Sule Pagoda while many young people also massed at another favourite protest site, at an intersection near the main university campus, spilling into the streets as police tried to move them on.
Demonstrators protest against the military coup in Yangon, Myanmar, on Feb 17, 2021. (Photo: REUTERS/Stringer)
Police stand by as protesters take part in a demonstration blocking a road with their cars and demanding the release of detained Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a demonstration against the military coup in Yangon on Feb 18, 2021. (Photo: AFP/Ye Aung Thu)
The street marches have been more peaceful than the bloodily suppressed demonstrations seen during an earlier half century of army rule, but they and the civil disobedience movement have had a crippling effect on much official business.
Protesters take part in a demonstration blocking a road with their cars and demanding the release of detained Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a demonstration against the military coup in Yangon on Feb 18, 2021. (Photo: AFP/Ye Aung Thu)
"I don't want to wake up in a dictatorship. We don't want to live the rest of our lives in fear," said slow-car protester Ko Soe Min.
"I'll be happy if government officers are late for work or can't get there at all."
In the second-biggest city, Mandalay, protesters rallied to demand the release of two officials arrested in the coup. Police fired water cannon in the capital, Naypyidaw, to scatter a crowd approaching police lines.
The northern town of Myitkyina was tense after police and soldiers used catapults to break up a protest, a resident said. Pictures on social media showed soldiers and rows of police trucks.
"They're not acting in line with the constitution nor rule of law. They are acting like terrorists," said activist Sut Seng Htoi. Police were not available for comment.
In the old capital of Bagan, people with banners and flags marched in colourful processions against a backdrop of ancient temples. Some protesters stopped at a temple to put a curse on dictators, a witness said.
Putting an end to the civil disobedience campaign appears to be the military government's priority.
The army announced late on Wednesday that six local celebrities, including film directors, actors and a singer, were wanted under an anti-incitement law for encouraging civil servants to join in the protest.
The charges can carry a two-year prison sentence.
"It's amazing to see the unity of our people. People's power must return to the people," actor Lu Min, who was on the junta's 'wanted list', posted defiantly on his Facebook page.
An activist group that monitors social media said that since Feb 9, posts had shown some sort of protest in about 90 per cent of cities and towns across the country.
The military says a majority of people back its actions.
SHOTS FIRED
Train services have been badly disrupted and after dark, security forces in the second biggest city of Manadalay confronted striking railway workers, opening fire with rubber bullets and catapults and throwing stones, residents said.
One charity worker was wounded in the leg by a rubber bullet.
Neither the army nor the police made any immediate comment on the incident, but the army's Facebook page said forces were providing security across the country to "make sure people have tranquillity and sound sleep".
The number of people known to have been detained since the coup halted a tentative transition towards democracy had reached 495 by Wednesday, Myanmar's Assistance Association for Political Prisoners said in a statement.
It said 460 were still being held.
A colleague told AFP that 11 foreign ministry officials were arrested in the early hours of Thursday morning for taking part in civil disobedience activities.
A police officer, who asked not to be named, told AFP at least 50 civil servants from multiple ministries have been detained in the last four days.
The army took power after the electoral commission rejected its accusations of fraud in a Nov 8 election swept by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party, prompting anger from Western countries as well as the local protests.
More demonstrations were planned for Thursday - including by student groups and workers from different ethnic groups in the diverse country of more than 53 million people.
Coup opponents are deeply sceptical of junta promises to hand over power after a new election for which no date has yet been set.
Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, detained since the coup, now faces a charge of violating a Natural Disaster Management Law as well as charges of illegally importing six walkie talkie radios. Her next court appearance has been set for Mar 1.
Aung San Suu Kyi, 75, spent nearly 15 years under house arrest for her efforts to bring democracy.
The army says that one policeman died of injuries sustained in a protest. One protester who was shot in the head during a protest in the capital Naypyitaw is being kept on life support, but doctors say she is not expected to survive.
