BANGKOK: Hands point above head = need umbrella; Hands held over head = need helmet; Hands crossed over chest = enough supplies here.
Thai protesters are learning a whole new language, developed within days to coordinate among crowds of thousands of people at demonstrations that have swollen in defiance of a government ban and despite the arrest of many protest leaders.
"Everyone has been helping each other out," said 19-year-old Riam, who like most protesters would only give one name. "At first, we had to work out what people were saying, but with the gestures, it's pretty easy to guess."
Protesters attend an anti-government demonstration, in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 18, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun)
Some of the words in the Thai hand signal vocabulary are the same as those used by protesters in Hong Kong. Some they made up themselves and have now gained common usage.
Three months of protests in Thailand have sought to bring down Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, a former military leader, and to curb the powers of the monarchy of King Maha Vajiralongkorn.
Protesters attend an anti-government demonstration in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 18, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun)
They gained added momentum last week with a government crackdown that brought the arrest of several of the highest profile protest leaders and saw police using water cannon for the first time on Friday.
That has also meant a need to be able to quickly move protective equipment and other supplies from point to point so that everyone can be prepared.
Protesters attend an anti-government demonstration, in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 18, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun)
Police spokesman Kissana Phathanacharoen noted that the protest situation was "very dynamic" and that people should understand their presence there was illegal.
Since Friday, police have not tried to break up protests, but protesters are taking no chances.
Protesters use hand signals during an anti-government protest in Bangkok, Thailand on Oct 19, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha)
Their new language only took shape at the weekend - when groups started to teach and practice the moves together. Some messages are still passed down human chains by shouting them in a form of Chinese whispers that are anything but whispered.
"Everyone is well educated and learns how to survive without the leaders," said 20-year-old Tangmae as she demonstrated some of the signs. "We should communicate so the protest can happen in an orderly way."
SINGAPORE: The air travel bubble announced by Hong Kong and Singapore on Oct 15 marks the first significant positive development in several months for both aviation hubs, Singapore Airlines (SIA) as well as Cathay Pacific.
Both the Changi Airport and Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) are currently at about 1.5 per cent of normal passenger traffic levels.
Passenger traffic at SIA Group and Cathay Pacific Group are at even lower levels – down almost 99 per cent in recent months.
Traffic has been essentially stalled at the current paltry level for the last three months, following a very slight uptick in June and July driven by the resumption of transit traffic at both hubs.
In early June, Singapore and Hong Kong both started accepting transit passengers in select markets. While more markets have been gradually added, transit volumes still remain extremely low.
Changi, for example, is currently only handling about 2,500 transit passengers per week.
CURRENT ARRANGEMENTS NOT YIELDING RESULTS
Singapore has been more aggressive than Hong Kong at trying to kickstart a recovery, opening bilateral green lanes with five other countries and unilaterally opening with four countries by waiving quarantine requirements.
However, none of these steps have had a significant impact and combined have generated even less additional traffic than the resumption of transit.
The requirements associated with the five green lanes – which started in June with China followed by Malaysia in August and Brunei, South Korea and Japan in September – are onerous, limiting demand to a trickle.
A sixth green lane, with Indonesia, was recently announced and will be opened in late October.
The unilateral openings – which included Brunei and New Zealand from early September followed by Australia (except Victoria) and Vietnam from early October – have been less meaningful as restrictions on the other end remain, limiting demand to a trickle.
Singapore will allow travellers from Brunei and New Zealand with just a virus test while the quarantine period will be cut to seven days for arrivals from low-risk regions including most of Australia, China, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia AFP/Roslan RAHMAN
Only with Hong Kong does the agreement permit all types of travel, including leisure, while the six green lanes only allow essential business travel.
HIGH FARES FOR THE TIME BEING
Opening up leisure and removing quarantine, which will be replaced by a yet to be announced COVID-19 testing scheme at both ends, will lead to huge demand from the moment the bubble begins.
The start date and number of initial flights will be decided over the next few weeks but the bubble will start small – not due to demand but because the two governments will be cautious initially.
The number of flights will build up gradually over the next several months if the virus remains contained in both destinations, potentially reaching and perhaps even surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels in 2021.
Demand will likely remain above supply for at least a few months, which in theory will lead to very high fares.
However, the governments could put a cap on fares, which is not normal for either but these are not normal times.
WHO GETS A SHARE OF THE PIE?
How the flights, which will be dedicated to the air travel bubble with no passengers permitted to transit beyond either hub, will be allocated to airlines and how they are sold could become controversial.
Prior to the pandemic, there were up to 21 daily flights between Hong Kong and Singapore including up to nine from Singapore Airlines, eight from Cathay Pacific, three from SIA Group budget subsidiary Scoot and one from Singapore-based budget airline Jetstar Asia.
It would be logical for authorities to follow a similar ratio when allocating flights for the air travel bubble or, to be even fairer, seat capacity could be used given the wide range of seating capacities for different aircraft types.
Most of Cathay's passenger planes lie unused on Hong Kong airport's tarmac during the pandemic AFP/Anthony WALLACE
According to OAG Aviation’s schedules data, in 2019 there were 3.8 million seats between Hong Kong and Singapore with Cathay Pacific accounting for 48.2 per cent followed by SIA with 39.4 per cent, Scoot with 9 per cent and Jetstar Asia with 3.4 per cent.
According to OAG Aviation’s traffic data, there were 2.9 million passengers on flights between Hong Kong and Singapore in 2019, with 70 per cent or 2 million local passengers.
The remaining 30 per cent consisted of transit passengers that connected on a single ticket beyond Hong Kong, Singapore or both hubs.
As the flights in the bubble will be dedicated to the local market, fewer flights would be needed than the average of 18 per day from 2019 to carry the same number of passengers.
HOW BIG WILL THE BUBBLE BE?
However, local traffic could increase beyond 2019 levels, which was down compared to 2018 due to the protests in Hong Kong and has been declining steadily since 2014.
According to Hong Kong Tourism Board data, Singaporean visitors to Hong Kong slipped by 26 per cent from 610,000 in 2018, including 431,000 that arrived at HKIA, to 453,000 in 2019, including 311,000 that arrived at HKIA.
According to Singapore Tourism Board data, there were 488,000 Hong Kong citizen visitor numbers to Singapore in 2019, including 417,00 that arrived at Changi Airport, compared to 473,000 in 2018, including 397,000 that arrived at Changi.
The HKIA and Changi arrival figures are key as they show how big the travel bubble could become while the total visitor figures are less relevant as they include Singaporeans that entered Hong Kong for a second time after side trips to Macau or mainland China and Hong Kong citizens that entered Singapore a second time after side trips to Malaysia or Indonesia.
The visitor arrivals by air data indicate that of the 2 million local passengers that flew between Hong Kong and Singapore in 2019, there were roughly 900,000 Hong Kong citizens and 600,000 Singapore citizens.
A bus crosses the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge. (Photo: Reuters)
The remaining 500,000 passengers would consist mainly of expats who live in Hong Kong or Singapore, including permanent residents and work pass holders, as they would be counted in visitor data based on the country of their passport.
There would also be some passengers that do not live in Hong Kong or Singapore but are travelling between the two as part of multi-destination trips.
These passengers, as well as self-connecting passengers, which are counted in the visitor numbers as they clear immigration before boarding their next flight, have to be excluded from the 2 million figure when considering traffic that would be part of the air bubble.
Therefore, the air travel bubble would generate around 1.8 million annual passengers if a similar level of local market traffic as 2019 is achieved.
Based on 2018 levels, the bubble would generate about 2 million passengers and based on the peak 2014 levels 2.5 million passengers would be generated.
WHY THIS BUBBLE MATTERS
The 1.8 million figure would represent nearly 3 per cent of total traffic for each airport prior to the pandemic while the 2.5 million figure would represent nearly 4 percent.
This does not sound too significant but compared to the current level of traffic at Changi and HKIA the impact is huge.
With 150,000 to 210,000 passengers per month, the Hong Kong-Singapore air travel bubble would more than double and could even triple traffic compared to the current roughly 100,000 passengers per month for each airport.
These kind of monthly figures would not be reached until at least early 2021 as initially the bubble will start small.
The economic impact for 2021 is potentially very significant, resulting in revenues that could approach US$1 billion for the airline industry and several billion dollars for the overall travel industry.
This is a real tangible impact for airlines – unlike any of the recent airline initiatives in Hong Kong or Singapore such as the upcoming flights to nowhere for Cathay Pacific budget subsidiary Hong Kong Express and the A380 restaurant, training centre tours and home delivery meals for SIA.
None of these initiatives generate significant revenues or profits but are being pursued mainly for marketing and to keep the community engaged while virtually everyone is grounded.
Cathay Pacific Group and SIA Group – and their shareholders – are eager for borders to reopen, which is crucial given their lack of a domestic market, so they can mount more flights and carry more passengers.
Both groups are currently operating about 10 per cent of normal capacity with load factors of roughly 20 per cent.
The Hong Kong-Singapore bubble would only increase total capacity, which is measured by available seat kilometres, by a few percentage points given the relatively short distance of the route.
But load factors would improve significantly as the dedicated flights to the bubble would likely operate at full, or nearly full, capacity and total passenger revenues could double.
THE BUBBLE COULD BURST
However, the up to US$1 billion in possible airline revenues the bubble could generate in 2021 – which could roughly be split by the Cathay Pacific and SIA groups with Jetstar Asia also accounting for a small share – is hardly assured.
If there are no other or only a few other options, then the Hong Kong-Singapore traffic could increase even well beyond prior record levels.
However, both governments are in discussions with several other countries over possible travel bubbles that would similarly allow all types of travel, including leisure, without quarantine.
If several bubbles are established, Changi and HKIA may both be able to recover 20 per cent or even 30 per cent of passenger traffic without a vaccination.
FILE PHOTO: A woman holds a small bottle labeled with a "Vaccine COVID-19" sticker and a medical syringe in this illustration taken April 10, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic
A 50 per cent recovery for either hub, SIA or Cathay Pacific is not likely without a vaccination and a full 100 per cent recovery would likely take another two to three years following a vaccination.
However, if successfully implemented, the Hong Kong-Singapore air travel bubble is the start of a long road to recovery.
It represents the light at the end of the tunnel, particularly if followed by several other travel bubbles in Asia Pacific – not only involving Hong Kong or Singapore but between other countries as this would help boost transit traffic for both hubs.
Brendan Sobie is the founder of Singapore-based independent aviation consulting and analysis firm Sobie Aviation. He was previously chief analyst for CAPA – Centre for Aviation.
SINGAPORE: Four new COVID-19 cases were reported in Singapore on Monday (Oct 19), the Ministry of Health (MOH) said.
All four infections were imported cases who were placed on stay-home notice upon their arrival in Singapore, and tested during this period said MOH. No locally transmitted COVID-19 cases were reported.
A 40-year-old Singaporean woman and a 39-year-old man who is a Singapore permanent resident were among the four imported cases reported on Monday.
Both had returned to Singapore from India. The woman had an onset of symptoms on Oct 18 while the man was asymptomatic.
A 18-year-old student's pass holder from India, who was asymptomatic, was also among the imported cases.
The remaining case is a 41-year-old special pass holder from the Philippines, who had arrived in Singapore to board a ship that was docked here. The man was asymptomatic.
The new cases bring the national total to 57,915.
MOH said that epidemiological investigations are in progress. All identified close contacts of the cases have been isolated and placed on quarantine, and will be tested at the start and end of their quarantine period to detect any asymptomatic cases.
The ministry added that it will conduct serological tests for the close contacts to determine if the cases could have been infected by them.
"Overall, the number of new cases in the community has remained stable at 4 cases a week in the past 2 weeks.
"The number of unlinked cases in the community has increased from none in the week before, to two cases in the past week" said MOH.
The ministry added it will continue to closely monitor these numbers, as well as the cases detected through its surveillance programme.
MOH said it has been monitoring existing clusters for any further COVID-19 transmission.
As there were no more cases linked to the cluster at Sungei Tengah Lodge at 500 Old Choa Chu Kang Road for the past two incubation periods - or 28 days - the cluster is now closed, said the ministry.
LOCATIONS VISITED BY COVID-19 CASES WHILE INFECTIOUS
Another two more locations have been added to the list of places visited by COVID-19 cases while infectious, Jurong Point shopping mall and the FairPrice Aljunied supermarket at Block 114 Aljunied Avenue 2.
Jurong Point shopping mall was visited on Oct 10 between 6.35pm to 8pm while the FairPrice supermarket at Aljunied was patronised on Oct 11 from 7.35pm to 8.05pm.
As a precautionary measure, anyone who had been at these locations during the specified timings should monitor their health closely for 14 days from their date of visit, said MOH.
The health ministry said individuals may access the SafeEntry Location Matching Self-Check service via the TraceTogether App, SingPass Mobile or at the SafeEntry website to check whether they were at these locations during the specified timings, based on their own SafeEntry records.
They should see a doctor if they develop symptoms of acute respiratory infection, as well as fever and loss of taste or smell.
The ministry added that there is no need to avoid places where confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been.
The National Environment Agency will engage the management of affected premises to provide guidance on cleaning and disinfection, said MOH.
RECOVERIES
Twelve more COVID-19 cases have been discharged from hospitals or community isolation facilities, bringing the total number of recoveries to 57,819.
There are currently 34 confirmed cases who are still in hospital. Most are stable or improving, and no one is in the intensive care unit.
A total of 34 people are isolated and cared for at community facilities.
"These are those who have mild symptoms, or are clinically well but still test positive for COVID-19," said MOH.
Twenty-eight people have died from complications due to COVID-19 infection.
The latest payout is S$1.5 billion more than the last round of disbursement in July.
First announced by Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat in February's Budget, the JSS is a wage subsidy programme aimed to help companies retain their workers as businesses take a hit from the COVID-19 pandemic.
With the October payouts, more than S$21.5 billion in JSS support would have been given out, said the Ministry of Finance and Inland Revenue Authority.
BANGKOK: Thailand's embattled premier called on Monday (Oct 19) for a special session of parliament as protesters planned more rallies to demand his resignation, the release of jailed activists, and reforms to the monarchy.
Tens of thousands of mostly young protesters have taken to the streets in the past week in defiance of an emergency decree banning gatherings of more than four people.
Police said about 20,000 people protested across the capital Sunday, although activists and local media estimated much bigger crowds.
As they prepared to rally again on Monday, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said parliament - currently in recess - would be recalled to discuss how to reduce tensions.
Thai police said about 20,000 people protested in Bangkok Sunday night, but local media and activists estimated the numbers to be far higher. (Photo: AFP/Mladen Antonov)
"We support opening an extraordinary session to solve this conflict," he told reporters, warning protesters not to break the law.
"I request protesters rally peacefully. The government has already compromised to some degree," he said.
The largely leaderless movement is calling for the resignation of Prayut - a former army chief and mastermind of a 2014 coup - as well as the rewriting of the military-drafted constitution they say rigged last year's election in his favour.
Most controversially, protesters are also making unprecedented demands to reform the powerful and ultra-wealthy monarchy.
They want the abolition of a defamation law that shields King Maha Vajiralongkorn from criticism, greater transparency of royal finances, and for the monarch to stay out of politics.
The movement appeared to be gaining traction across the country with smaller protests taking place on Sunday from Phuket in the south to Khon Kaen in the northeast.
"PROTECT THE MONARCHY"
It has gained momentum since July, but sharply escalated last week after a group of protesters surrounded a royal motorcade and flashed three-fingered "democracy salutes" - borrowed from the "Hunger Games" movies - at Queen Suthida.
Two activists now face charges under a rarely used law banning "violence against the queen" and face a maximum sentence of life in prison if convicted.
Confrontations escalated further on Friday when riot police used water cannon and other strong-arm tactics, provoking widespread outrage.
Prayut warned on Monday the government needed to protect the monarchy.
"This is the duty of all Thais," he told reporters.
Apart from arrests by police, the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society said it had flagged more than 325,000 messages on social media platforms that violated the Computer Crimes Act, which critics say is used to muzzle dissent.
Police also warned local media outlets that their coverage of the protests would be examined for possible illegal content.
By midday, #SaveFreePress was the latest hashtag trending on Thai Twitter, one of several platforms being used by tech-savvy protesters to coordinate their activity.
They have also copied many tactics employed by Hong Kong protesters during months of frequently violent clashes there last year, including using improvised protective clothing in case of confrontations with riot police.
HANOI: Japan and Vietnam agreed on Monday (Oct 19) to strengthen security and economic ties, including an agreement in principle for Japan to export military gear and technology to the Southeast Asian nation, amid concerns about China's regional assertiveness.
"It is a big step in the field of security for both countries that we reached an agreement in principle on the transfers of defence equipment and technology," Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told reporters after meeting his Vietnamese counterpart, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, in Hanoi.
"Vietnam, which is serving as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian nations) chair this year, is key to realise a free and open Indo-Pacific," Suga added.
The leaders also agreed on the importance of maintaining peace, security, and freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea, and to settle disputes in a peaceful manner, Phuc said in a joint media appearance with Suga.
"Vietnam welcomes Japan, a global power, to continue to actively contribute to regional and global peace, stability and prosperity," Phuc said.
Suga, who took office last month after Shinzo Abe quit because of poor health, is making his overseas diplomatic debut this week with a trip to the vital Southeast Asian nations of Vietnam and Indonesia.
Japan must balance its deep economic ties with China with security concerns, including Beijing's push to assert claims over disputed East China Sea isles.
Vietnam and other ASEAN members, many of which have territorial feuds with China in the South China Sea, are wary of alienating a big economic partner and reluctant to become entrapped in an intense confrontation between the United States and China.
China claims swathes of Vietnam's exclusive economic zone, as well as the Paracel and Spratly Islands.
Japan, which ended a decades-old ban on overseas arms sales in 2014 to help strengthen the nation's military and lower the cost of home-built military equipment, has been in talks with Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand on deals to allow such exports to those nations.
Suga's visit also coincides with Japan's efforts to diversify its supply chains and reduce reliance on China by bringing production home or moving it to Southeast Asia.
Vietnam is a popular choice for Japanese firms. Half of the 30 Japanese firms that used a 23.5 billion yen (US$222.9 million) government programme to diversify supply chains in Southeast Asia targeted Vietnam, which has aggressively courted such investment.
Suga said the two countries had agreed to bolster their cooperation to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
"We agreed on restarting 'business track' travel as well as passenger flights between the two countries today," Suga said.
Suga also said that Japan would help Vietnamese "trainees" working in Japan, many of whom are struggling as the COVID-19 outbreak hits Japanese companies.
BANGKOK: "They think arresting the leaders will stop us. It's no use. We are all leaders today," 24-year-old Pla said as she addressed thousands of protesters at Bangkok's Victory Monument on Sunday (Oct 18).
Despite the arrest of many of Thailand's most high profile protest leaders over the past week, demonstrations have grown, with ever louder calls for the ousting of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and reforms to King Maha Vajiralongkorn's monarchy.
Partly borrowing from the Hong Kong protest playbook and partly working things out for themselves, previously unknown protesters have thwarted police efforts and demonstrated the greatest public support for change in decades.
"Get your megaphones ready, your protective gear on, because everybody is a leader," the Free Youth group protest announced in a Facebook post on Sunday.
Before he was arrested on Saturday, well-known face Panupong "Mike Rayong" Jadnok, 24, sent the same signal by using the hashtag #everybodyisaleader on Facebook.
Protesters shine their mobile phone lights during an anti-government protest, in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 18, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha)
Even the sites for protests have been decided through votes on social media groups. Multiple announcements of possible protest sites have left police guessing. By the time they show up, thousands of people have already massed.
Police spokesman Kissana Phathanacharoen described the situation as "very dynamic", adding: "What we can say now is warn the public that they have to follow the law."
The lack of leadership on the ground caused some awkward moments on Saturday when people appeared unsure who should speak. Protests in Thailand traditionally involve a series of speakers on a stage.
Suthida "Smile" Buakhom, 20, stepped up at one rally with a microphone she had brought in the expectation it might be needed because of the arrests of dozens of activists.
A protester attends an anti-government protest, in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 18, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Jorge Silva)
"I know that people cannot stay in a place for long without some sort of focus," she told Reuters. "I try to encourage everyone to rise up to speak."
HONG KONG MODEL
Thai protesters have been quick to adopt the "Be Water" tactics of Hong Kong protesters, but have also got moral support from activists there who see a comparable struggle with an authoritarian system. Thai protesters seek to oust Prayut, a former military leader, and to reduce the monarchy's powers.
"Be kind to your fellows, have faith in collective wisdom, be fluid on strategies, be determined in actions," tweeted Hong Kong activist Nathan Law on Sunday in support of Thai protesters. "Never lose hope, stay safe."
Protesters make way for an ambulance during an anti-government protest, in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 18, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha)
Some 13 activists who met for the first time at Bangkok's Asok intersection on Sunday debriefed each other after the crowd of thousands dispersed peacefully - agreeing on a new chat group to keep in touch to prepare for future demonstrations.
"I came today to help with the organization but when I arrived there was no natural leader yet so I just started speaking," said Omyim, who gave only her nickname.
One of those who came forward, PK, was older than others at 30 and helped to ensure security - with everyone worried that police could again use water cannon and batons as they did at a protest on Friday.
"We need to protect the activists, especially the younger protesters," he told Reuters. He and other protesters had linked arms to separate the protest area from traffic and ensured people had the space to move.
Activists taught each other hand signals: "Danger", "Safe", "Someone has been Arrested", "Can't Hear", "Need Water" and more.
Pro-democracy protesters attend an anti-government protest, in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 18, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha)
As word spread that police might approach the different demonstrations, human chains linked up to pass along protective gear such as helmets, goggles and umbrellas.
And beyond the immediate concerns for security, social media accounts sprang up to indicate where protesters could find toilets, where they might find missing friends or belongings or if they needed a bed for the night.
One student leader who gained prominence during earlier protests said she was leaving the spotlight, having so far avoided arrest.
"Now I'm just one of the people who want to see change alongside everyone," Chonthicha 'Lookkate' Jangrew, 27, told Reuters.
