We are facing a public health crisis that, in global terms, may be the worst for just over a century.
No wonder then that the coronavirus pandemic has pushed many of the stories that make up our usual daily diet of international news to the sidelines.
Nonetheless, many commentators are already speculating about how global affairs may or may not change in the wake of this drama.
That, though, is a long way off yet.
A more immediate question is whether the behaviour of antagonistic countries - Iran and the United States, in this case - as they both struggle to confront this emergency, might provide a glimmer of hope for a better relationship in the future?
The question is posed because Iran has been hit severely by the virus.
The number of reported cases is already more than 17,000 and the death toll stands at 1,192, although many in Iran believe the actual numbers are a lot higher.
Iran's economy is already weakened by US sanctions and, although Washington insists that humanitarian items - medical supplies, for example - remain outside the sanctions net, the web of restrictions on the Central Bank of Iran and the country's ability to trade with the outside world are only accentuating its problems.
Things have been made even more difficult by transport disruption, border closures and so on, prompted by the wider impact of the pandemic.
As a measure of Iran's desperate need, it has taken the almost unprecedented step of requesting a $5bn (£4.25bn) emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This is the first time for some 60 years that Iran has sought IMF funds. A spokesperson for the organisation told me on Tuesday that the IMF "had discussions with the Iranian authorities to better understand their request for emergency financing" and that "the discussions will continue in the days and weeks ahead".
The US, as one of the IMF Executive Board's most important members, will have a significant say in whether Iran gets the money.
Already there are calls from US experts for Iran not just to be given what it needs, but also for the Trump administration to pursue a more compassionate approach to Iran's health crisis in general.
Mark Fitzpatrick, an expert on arms control and the Iranian nuclear programme, insisted that there was a moment now when an opportunity can be seized to break the log-jam.
"US policy toward Iran is stuck, failing to change Iran's behaviour except for the worse," he tweeted on Monday.
"The likelihood of massive protests… seems slim given government directives to stay home and rational fears that mass gatherings will only spread the virus," she wrote.
The US treasury department, she noted, had taken some small steps to clarify that the humanitarian channel to Iran remained open. But there had been no indications that the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy was being reconsidered, she added.
"It appears that the crisis will only push Iran deeper into the arms of China and Russia and strengthen those in the regime who reject reconciliation with the West."
"The Revolutionary Guards, who are handling much of the response to the virus and building emergency medical facilities," she insisted, "will grow even more powerful as Iran comes to look less and less like a theocracy with a thin republican veneer and more like a military dictatorship."
So what then is the chance of even some modest rapprochement?
Not much if the public statements of some of the key players are to be taken at face value.
The Trump administration has sought to score diplomatic points in this crisis.
The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, said earlier this week that Iran's leaders had "lied about the Wuhan virus for weeks", and that they were "trying to avoid responsibility for their... gross incompetence".
Note there the use of the term "Wuhan virus", which Mr Pompeo prefers to "coronavirus".
Washington is seeking to have a jab at Beijing too, but equally some Chinese figures have been ready to brand the pandemic as some kind of conspiracy created by the US military.
But in regard to Iran, Mr Pompeo has gone further.
He bluntly stated that "the Wuhan virus is a killer and the Iranian regime is an accomplice".
Nonetheless, he said the US was "trying to offer help".
"We have an open humanitarian channel... even as our maximum pressure campaign denies terrorists money."
In terms of potential military confrontation - remember, just a few weeks ago the US and Iran seemed to be on the brink of war - there have been some indirect incidents.
They include rocket attacks on Iraqi military bases used by US-led coalition forces that the Americans believe were carried out by a pro-Iranian Shia militia. One attack killed three coalition service personnel - one of them a British medic - and the US responded with air strikes.
General Frank McKenzie of CentCom, the man in charge of US forces in the Middle East, told the Senate Armed Services Committee recently that the coronavirus outbreak might make a weakened Iran "more dangerous".
The US is certainly not taking any risks, unusually maintaining two aircraft carriers in the region.
Of course, the indirect culpability of Iran in such attacks is always contested - certainly by the Iranians themselves.
This is not necessarily a tap that Tehran can just turn on and off at will. Many of its proxies have local concerns and goals.
The Shia militias in Iraq are eager to force the Americans out. But Iran could probably do a lot to scale down the frequency or severity of incidents.
Indeed, in general the pandemic does seem to be reducing military confrontation in the wider region.
On the Iran-Israel front in Syria, things seem to be noticeably quieter. And Gen McKenzie also noted that the US might have to "ultimately live with a low-level of proxy attacks", a statement that reduces some of the drama from the situation.
The Iranian leadership too has been talking tough.
President Hassan Rouhani noted on Wednesday that Iran had responded to the US killing of the famed Revolutionary Guards General Qasem Soleimani in January, but also making clear that that this response would continue.
"The Americans assassinated our great commander," he said in a televised speech. "We have responded to that terrorist act and will respond to it."
So, on the face of it, there's not much chance of taking the sting out of the US-Iran relationship.
Washington's attitude to the IMF loan may be a pointer to how things might develop. And indeed rhetoric should not necessarily be taken at face value.
At the end of February, the US contacted Iran via the Swiss government to say that it was "prepared to assist the Iranian people in their response efforts".
Only on Tuesday, Mr Pompeo, along with his tough words to both Tehran and Beijing, spoke of his hope that Tehran might be considering releasing some Americans detained in the country.
The temporary release of the British-Iranian woman Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is another small pointer of a shift in Tehran.
At the end of the day, Iran may well need to tacitly restrain some of the groups who have the Americans and other Western forces in their sights.
They will need to release detained foreign nationals.
And the Trump administration will need to decide whether this is an opportunity to create a small opening with Tehran along sound humanitarian grounds or, whether the mounting pressure on the regime from both sanctions and now the coronavirus, is a moment to double-down.
It could be a fateful decision for what comes next when the pandemic has passed.
We are facing a public health crisis that, in global terms, may be the worst for just over a century.
No wonder then that the coronavirus pandemic has pushed many of the stories that make up our usual daily diet of international news to the sidelines.
Nonetheless, many commentators are already speculating about how global affairs may or may not change in the wake of this drama.
That, though, is a long way off yet.
A more immediate question is whether the behaviour of antagonistic countries - Iran and the United States, in this case - as they both struggle to confront this emergency, might provide a glimmer of hope for a better relationship in the future?
The question is posed because Iran has been hit severely by the virus.
The number of reported cases is already more than 17,000 and the death toll stands at 1,192, although many in Iran believe the actual numbers are a lot higher.
Iran's economy is already weakened by US sanctions and, although Washington insists that humanitarian items - medical supplies, for example - remain outside the sanctions net, the web of restrictions on the Central Bank of Iran and the country's ability to trade with the outside world are only accentuating its problems.
Things have been made even more difficult by transport disruption, border closures and so on, prompted by the wider impact of the pandemic.
As a measure of Iran's desperate need, it has taken the almost unprecedented step of requesting a $5bn (£4.25bn) emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This is the first time for some 60 years that Iran has sought IMF funds. A spokesperson for the organisation told me on Tuesday that the IMF "had discussions with the Iranian authorities to better understand their request for emergency financing" and that "the discussions will continue in the days and weeks ahead".
The US, as one of the IMF Executive Board's most important members, will have a significant say in whether Iran gets the money.
Already there are calls from US experts for Iran not just to be given what it needs, but also for the Trump administration to pursue a more compassionate approach to Iran's health crisis in general.
Mark Fitzpatrick, an expert on arms control and the Iranian nuclear programme, insisted that there was a moment now when an opportunity can be seized to break the log-jam.
"US policy toward Iran is stuck, failing to change Iran's behaviour except for the worse," he tweeted on Monday.
"The likelihood of massive protests… seems slim given government directives to stay home and rational fears that mass gatherings will only spread the virus," she wrote.
The US treasury department, she noted, had taken some small steps to clarify that the humanitarian channel to Iran remained open. But there had been no indications that the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy was being reconsidered, she added.
"It appears that the crisis will only push Iran deeper into the arms of China and Russia and strengthen those in the regime who reject reconciliation with the West."
"The Revolutionary Guards, who are handling much of the response to the virus and building emergency medical facilities," she insisted, "will grow even more powerful as Iran comes to look less and less like a theocracy with a thin republican veneer and more like a military dictatorship."
So what then is the chance of even some modest rapprochement?
Not much if the public statements of some of the key players are to be taken at face value.
The Trump administration has sought to score diplomatic points in this crisis.
The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, said earlier this week that Iran's leaders had "lied about the Wuhan virus for weeks", and that they were "trying to avoid responsibility for their... gross incompetence".
Note there the use of the term "Wuhan virus", which Mr Pompeo prefers to "coronavirus".
Washington is seeking to have a jab at Beijing too, but equally some Chinese figures have been ready to brand the pandemic as some kind of conspiracy created by the US military.
But in regard to Iran, Mr Pompeo has gone further.
He bluntly stated that "the Wuhan virus is a killer and the Iranian regime is an accomplice".
Nonetheless, he said the US was "trying to offer help".
"We have an open humanitarian channel... even as our maximum pressure campaign denies terrorists money."
In terms of potential military confrontation - remember, just a few weeks ago the US and Iran seemed to be on the brink of war - there have been some indirect incidents.
They include rocket attacks on Iraqi military bases used by US-led coalition forces that the Americans believe were carried out by a pro-Iranian Shia militia. One attack killed three coalition service personnel - one of them a British medic - and the US responded with air strikes.
General Frank McKenzie of CentCom, the man in charge of US forces in the Middle East, told the Senate Armed Services Committee recently that the coronavirus outbreak might make a weakened Iran "more dangerous".
The US is certainly not taking any risks, unusually maintaining two aircraft carriers in the region.
Of course, the indirect culpability of Iran in such attacks is always contested - certainly by the Iranians themselves.
This is not necessarily a tap that Tehran can just turn on and off at will. Many of its proxies have local concerns and goals.
The Shia militias in Iraq are eager to force the Americans out. But Iran could probably do a lot to scale down the frequency or severity of incidents.
Indeed, in general the pandemic does seem to be reducing military confrontation in the wider region.
On the Iran-Israel front in Syria, things seem to be noticeably quieter. And Gen McKenzie also noted that the US might have to "ultimately live with a low-level of proxy attacks", a statement that reduces some of the drama from the situation.
The Iranian leadership too has been talking tough.
President Hassan Rouhani noted on Wednesday that Iran had responded to the US killing of the famed Revolutionary Guards General Qasem Soleimani in January, but also making clear that that this response would continue.
"The Americans assassinated our great commander," he said in a televised speech. "We have responded to that terrorist act and will respond to it."
So, on the face of it, there's not much chance of taking the sting out of the US-Iran relationship.
Washington's attitude to the IMF loan may be a pointer to how things might develop. And indeed rhetoric should not necessarily be taken at face value.
At the end of February, the US contacted Iran via the Swiss government to say that it was "prepared to assist the Iranian people in their response efforts".
Only on Tuesday, Mr Pompeo, along with his tough words to both Tehran and Beijing, spoke of his hope that Tehran might be considering releasing some Americans detained in the country.
The temporary release of the British-Iranian woman Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is another small pointer of a shift in Tehran.
At the end of the day, Iran may well need to tacitly restrain some of the groups who have the Americans and other Western forces in their sights.
They will need to release detained foreign nationals.
And the Trump administration will need to decide whether this is an opportunity to create a small opening with Tehran along sound humanitarian grounds or, whether the mounting pressure on the regime from both sanctions and now the coronavirus, is a moment to double-down.
It could be a fateful decision for what comes next when the pandemic has passed.
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters.
FILE PHOTO: Fake blood is seen in test tubes labelled with the coronavirus (COVID-19) in this illustration taken March 17, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
The Kremlin denied the allegations on Wednesday, saying they were unfounded and lacked common sense.
The EU document said the Russian campaign, pushing fake news online in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French, uses contradictory, confusing and malicious reports to make it harder for the EU to communicate its response to the pandemic.
“A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing,” said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus.
“The overarching aim of Kremlin disinformation is to aggravate the public health crisis in Western countries...in line with the Kremlin’s broader strategy of attempting to subvert European societies,” the document produced by the EU’s foreign policy arm, the European External Action Service, said.
An EU database has recorded almost 80 cases of disinformation about coronavirus since Jan. 22, it said, noting Russian efforts to amplify Iranian accusations online, cited without evidence, that coronavirus was a U.S. biological weapon.
Most scientists believe the disease originated in bats in China before passing to humans.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed to what he said was the lack in the EU document of a specific example or link to a specific media outlet.
“We’re talking again about some unfounded allegations which in the current situation are probably the result of an anti-Russian obsession,” said Peskov.
The EU document cited examples from Lithuania to Ukraine, including false claims that a U.S. soldier deployed to Lithuania was infected and hospitalized. It said that on social media, Russian state-funded, Spanish-language RT Spanish was the 12th most popular news source on coronavirus between January and mid-March, based on the amount of news shared on social media.
The EEAS declined to comment directly on the report.
The European Commission said it was in contact with Google (GOOGL.O), Facebook (FB.O), Twitter (TWTR.N) and Microsoft (MSFT.O). An EU spokesman accused Moscow of “playing with people’s lives” and appealed to EU citizens to “be very careful” and only use news sources they trust.
“HUMAN CREATION”
The EU and NATO have previously accused Russia of covert action, including disinformation, to try to destabilize the West by exploiting divisions in society.
Russia denies any such tactics and President Vladimir Putin has accused foreign foes of targeting Russia by spreading fake news about coronavirus to whip up panic.
Russian media in Europe have not been successful in reaching the broader public, but provide a platform for anti-EU populists and polarize debate, analysis by EU and non-governmental groups has shown.
The EEAS report cited riots at the end of February in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic now seeking to join the EU and NATO, as an example of the consequences of such disinformation.
It said a fake letter purporting to be from the Ukrainian health ministry falsely stated here were five coronavirus cases in the country. Ukrainian authorities say the letter was created outside Ukraine, the EU report said.
“Pro-Kremlin disinformation messages advance a narrative that coronavirus is a human creation, weaponized by the West,” said the report, first cited by the Financial Times.
It quoted fake news created by Russia in Italy - which is suffering the world’s second most deadly outbreak of coronavirus - alleging that the 27-nation EU was unable to effectively deal with the pandemic, despite a series of collective measures taken by governments in recent days.
The EEAS has also shared information with Slovakia over the spread of fake news accusing the country’s prime minister, Peter Pellegrini, of being infected with the virus and saying he may have passed on the infection to others at recent summits.
EU leaders have been conferring by videoconferences since early March.
Additional reporting by Anastasia Teterevela in Moscow; Editing by Mark Heinrich
More than 60 million people are living under an increasingly unbearable lockdown that is growing tighter by the day. The stores that remain open are shuttering earlier and police are patrolling in ever-greater numbers, chasing families out for walks back into their homes and ensuring no one is outside without a valid reason.
Even so, the number of novel coronavirus cases in the country is rising at a rate of around 3,500 new cases or more every day, and the death toll has topped 2,500.
The highest concentration of cases is in the north of the country, where the dead are being stacked up to be buried as funeral services are strictly prohibited. But the living are stacked up too, with coronavirus patients being treated in field hospitals and lined up in corridors inside the bursting public hospitals. Doctors and nurses are being infected, due to a lack of adequate protection.
Many wonder how this is going to end, and whether the economic cost of the lockdown is worth it. There are encouraging signs that the number of new cases in the original red zone in northern Italy may be leveling off, but experts say it is far too soon to consider this a reliable trend.
No signs of change yet
There are more than 2,000 people in intensive care units across Italy -- the worst-affected country in Europe -- according to the latest official figures. Most are concentrated in Lombardy, where the crisis exploded on February 23, but many fear there will be new hotspot areas further south, where infrastructure is was already weaker and where fewer people are adhering to the lockdown measures. Police have given citations to nearly 200,000 people across the country and have said they will clamp down even more, starting this weekend, if people continue to flout the restrictions.
Dr. Giorgio Palù, the former president of the European and Italian Society for Virology and a professor of virology and microbiology of the University of Padova, told CNN he'd hoped to see the first signs of a change after just over a week of nationwide lockdown, but that has yet to materialize. "Yesterday we expected to have a change after almost 10 days of this new measure ... but it's still rising," he told CNN. "So I don't think we can make a prediction today."
Palù said that looking at the number of new cases on a graph, the slope of the curve is still rising, making it hard to impossible when the lockdown will start to reap tangible benefits. And while the outbreak remains concentrated in the north, it's hard to compare regions. "The virus has no border. Not even (in) Italy," he added.
But he believes there's no alternative to the lockdown as long as everyone cooperates with it, and that the rights of citizens cannot overrule safety. "We cannot adopt democracy in information, you must rely on experts."
The lockdown should have been wider and stricter earlier, Palù believes, rather than just focusing on the 11 communities initially placed in the red zone, and it should be tighter now. "We should have done more diagnostic tests in Lombardy where there was a big nucleus. There is no sense in trying to go to the supermarket once a week. You have to limit your time out, isolation is the key thing."
He says the Italian government lagged at first. It was "lazy in the beginning... too much politics in Italy."
"There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China," he said. "Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak." That, he said, led to the current devastating situation.
Struggle to keep up
Dr. Alessandro Grimaldi, director of infectious disease at Salvatore Hospital in L'Aquila, has just tested negative after treating a coronavirus patient, and will be able to return to work soon after completing another period of quarantine.
"In Lombardy, where I am from, the healthcare system has collapsed," she told CNN, adding that doctors were triaging patients to decide which ones to treat. "There just isn't enough equipment. They choose the young, the medical rule of trying to save who has more probability to live."
Grimaldi said the only way to fight the battle to keep the healthcare system from total collapse is to increase resources. "Maybe the government should have thought of this before, prepare better," he said. "But if you don't see the emergency in front of you, you try to cut."
Grimaldi said that without more resources, the doctors will continue to struggle to keep up. "Today Italy is in the hands of doctors and nurses: there is a team work on the first lines that is fighting a battle for the patient," he told CNN. "We are soldiers that fight for our country. If we can end the epidemic here in Italy, we can stop the epidemic in Europe and the world."
He also agrees that the only way the lockdown will reap benefits is if it is rigidly enforced. "Fighting an enemy like this is difficult for everyone," he said. "China showed us you needed to take drastic measures. Italy was the first to stop flights to China, first country in Europe to do the lockdown."
Alessandro Vergallo, a specialist in anaesthesia and intensive care, said he worried that the European Union delayed its reaction to save the economy. "Of course, Italy's government responded faster and better than many other European countries. Many were embarrassing," he told CNN. "Now, the measures of containment that have gone into effect will help diminish the contagion."
But he doesn't want to cast blame. "It's not the time for controversy. But we are gathering all the necessary data from the end of 2019 to then analyze the behavior of the institutions both national and international in the face of this pandemic. To understand if everything worked when it was supposed to or to understand who failed," he said.
He warned that any return to normality won't happen for months. "Yesterday we were trying to interpret when the flattening of the curve would happen. Since it's an unknown virus, it's hard to interpret the data. We hope that by March 26, we should see a decrease in numbers," he tells CNN. "I think the fear of the various EU institutions feared the damage to the European economy would be bigger than that of the virus. Now we are all paying, not just in Italy, but also other European countries. A huge human and economic price is being paid."
The lockdown has stretched the very fabric of Italian society. The people are anxious and the economy is in tatters. Easter, which traditionally kicks off the tourist season across the country, has all but been cancelled, costing small and medium size businesses their livelihoods. Many have already said they will never reopen. As people default on their loans, both personal and business, the banks will likely need help, and the domino effect of this historical crisis will last long after Italy stops tallying new cases.
ROME (Reuters) - The northern region of Lombardy, on the frontline of Italy’s battle against the coronavirus, appealed to recently retired doctors and nurses on Wednesday to return to work and help colleagues overwhelmed by the crisis.
Italy is the worst affected country in the world outside of China, with 2,503 dead and 31,506 confirmed cases since Feb. 21. Around 65% of all the deaths have been recorded in Lombardy and hospitals there are at breaking point, officials say.
Adding to the problem, doctors, nurses and hospital porters have themselves fallen sick, and some have died.
The Gimbe Foundation research group, using data supplied by the national health authority, said that between March 11-17, some 2,529 health workers had tested positive for coronavirus - 8.3% of the national total.
“I make a heartfelt appeal to all the doctors, nurses and medical personnel who have retired in the last two years ... to help us in this emergency,” Lombardy Governor Attilio Fontana told a news conference.
He also urged staff in private medical facilities and first aid specialists to step forward as the region rushed to convert the Fiera Milano exhibition center into a makeshift hospital to add badly needed intensive care beds.
Underscoring the urgent need for more medical staff, the government announced on Tuesday it was rushing 10,000 student doctors into service nine months ahead of time, scrapping their final exams in an effort to relieve the mounting pressure.
Officials warned on Wednesday that if the incidence of new cases did not slow, they might have to extend an unprecedented lockdown imposed last week to halt infections.
The government ordered restaurants, bars and most shops to shut down until March 25. In addition, it shut schools and universities and told everyone to stay at home unless absolutely essential until April 3.
Since the restrictions were ramped up on March 12, the number of new cases has more than doubled, while deaths have more than tripled.
Slideshow (2 Images)
“I do not know if the measures will be extended beyond April 3. We will make a decision based on the numbers and events. I cannot rule it out. We will see in the coming days,” said Infrastructure Minister Paola De Micheli.
Fontana said even tougher curbs might be needed if the situation did not improve and said too many people were defying the lockdown.
“Unfortunately, the contagion numbers are not falling, they continue to be high,” he said. “Every time you leave your home, you are putting yourself and others at risk. We are asking people to make sacrifices to save lives.”
Elvira Pollina reported for this story in Milan. Additional reporting by Francesca Piscioneri; editing by Larry King and Nick Macfie
