The coronavirus could cost China's economy $60 billion this quarter. Beijing will have to act fast to avert a bigger hit - CNN

The economic impact of the virus is still impossible to determine, but one state media outlet and some economists have said that China's growth rate could drop two percentage points this quarter because of the outbreak, which has brought large parts of the country to a standstill. A decline on that scale could mean $62 billion in lost growth.

China can ill afford that kind of hit. Growth last year was already the country's weakest in nearly three decades, as China contended with rising debt and the fallout from its trade war with the United States.

The coronavirus, which first appeared in the central city of Wuhan, has already killed more than 200 people and infected more people than the SARS outbreak in 2003. A disease of this magnitude wasn't even on China's radar. Before the outbreak, the government was more worried that social unrest could be its "black swan" problem — an improbable but chaotic event officials feared could be spurred by rising unemployment.

Now Beijing is scrambling to stop the virus from cratering its economy. The ruling Communist Party recently put Premier Li Keqiang in charge of virus control. The decision was a clear signal that stopping the virus is "the priority among priorities" for the government right now, the official People's Daily newspaper wrote in a recent commentary.

So far, policymakers have taken some steps to help the businesses that are most affected by the rapid spread of the disease.

Central and local governments have allocated $12.6 billion so far to spend on medical treatment and equipment.

Major banks have cut interest rates for small businesses and individuals in the worst-hit areas. And the Bank of China said it would allow people in Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province to delay their loan payments for several months if they lose their source of income because of the disruption.

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, has said that it will ensure there is enough liquidity in the financial markets when they reopen next Monday after a 10-day Lunar New Year holiday. When Hong Kong's markets reopened earlier this week, the Hang Seng index (HSI) plunged nearly 6% in just a few days of trading.

Aggressive action

The government will likely have to be even more aggressive in the coming months to avert a more serious slowdown, according to Chinese economist Zhang Ming.

Zhang, who works at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote this week that he expects economic growth to slump by a percentage point to 5% in the first quarter, assuming the epidemic lasts until the end of March. He described that as his most optimistic scenario, but didn't give a specific forecast should the outbreak last even longer.

The government could cut taxes and boost spending on public healthcare and employment training, Zhang said. He also expects local governments to spend more on infrastructure. By boosting economic activity and creating jobs, he added, cities can offset any weakness in private investment in real estate and manufacturing.

The central bank is also likely to deliver more interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy, Zhang said. Altogether, he said such measures could help growth rebound next quarter and push annual GDP growth to around 5.7%. While that's lower than last year's 6.1% growth, it would be in line with many analyst expectations.

Others take a more pessimistic view.

Analysts at Nomura believe growth could drop by two percentage points or more in the first quarter. The Global Times, a state-run tabloid, wrote Friday that the outbreak could shave two percentage points off GDP growth this quarter, citing industry insiders. Government's efforts to contain the virus by extending Lunar New Year holidays and forcing factories to shut down could "take a piece out of the nation's manufacturing industry and disrupt the global supply chain."

Measuring the fallout

It's too early to say whether that level of upheaval is on the horizon. Tesla (TSLA) has been forced to close its new Shanghai-built factory temporarily. And Apple (AAPL) has lost production from suppliers in Wuhan. The longer term impact on both companies is much less clear.

Other sectors might have more to lose right now. Tourism — a multibillion-dollar industry during the Lunar New Year — has been decimated as the government quarantines major population centers and people avoid traveling for fear of becoming infected. Major travel companies, hotels and airlines have offered refunds through most of February, while some airlines have suspended services to and from China.

Holiday celebrations have been canceled and major tourism spots have been closed off. China's massive box office will also likely take a hit after several blockbuster movies set to release during the holiday season were pulled.

Zhang and other analysts suggested that the fallout could even be more serious than after SARS, the respiratory disease that caused China's economic growth to briefly plunge before rebounding nearly two decades ago.

The spread of the coronavirus threatens to cause job losses and push consumer prices higher, compounding economic woes that already exist.

The employment market is already under stress this year. Industries that traditionally create a lot of jobs, like the technology sector, have been hurt by the economic slowdown. The coronavirus outbreak will make things worse, according to Zhang.

China's 290 million migrant workers are among those most exposed to a slump. Many of them travel from rural areas to the cities to take on construction and manufacturing jobs or perform low paying but vital work, such as waiting tables in restaurants, delivering packages or acting as janitors.

But because many factories and businesses remain shut down, millions of those workers might find it hard to land a job after the extended Lunar New Year holiday ends. More than 10 million migrant workers from Hubei province alone might also face discrimination from employers fearful that they may spread the virus.

Zhang warned that China's unemployment rate — already a concern for officials — could reach a record high in the coming months. The rate traditionally has hovered around 4% or 5%.

He added the virus could also make consumer goods more expensive. Budgets are already tight because of rising debt, and a pork crisis brought on by the outbreak of African swine fever among China's pigs last year has caused the price of meat to skyrocket. Now vegetable prices have risen as people rush to buy basic necessities during the virus outbreak, according to the state news agency Xinhua.

Other challenges

Dealing with the disease will make some of China's other problems that much tougher to solve — including its tricky trade relationship with the United States.

As part of a truce reached earlier in January, Beijing agreed to buy $200 billion worth of US products in the next two years. Analysts have already said that shrinking domestic demand in China will make it tough for the country to hit those targets. If the virus weakens the country's buying power even more, those goals could move even further out of reach.

Substantial tariffs totaling hundreds of billions of dollars also remain in place on many Chinese goods. And Washington has made it clear that those will remain a form of leverage as the two sides negotiate the next phase of their agreement.

Even so, at least one analyst finds it unlikely that the trade war will escalate just because China is "temporarily" unable to honor its trade commitments. The United States is in an election year, and such an action could jeopardize President Donald Trump's campaign, said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank.

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2020-01-31 12:30:00Z
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Brexit Live Updates: U.K.’s Final Hours in the E.U. - The New York Times

Here’s what you need to know:

• Britain approaches a historic change.
• “Dawn of a new era”: Johnson’s planned speech on Britain’s next act.
• Front pages reveal a divided Britain.
• Christine Lagarde offers reassurances, even as the specter of recession looms.
• E.U. leaders lament the loss and look to the future.

Flags were hung along the Mall, the ceremonial avenue leading up to Buckingham Palace in London, as part of the government’s muted celebrations.Credit...Peter Summers/Getty Images

Britain approaches a historic change.

At 11 p.m. on Friday — midnight in Brussels, and 6 p.m. in New York — Britain will officially depart from the European Union, 1,317 days after voting in favor of leaving the bloc in a referendum that plunged the country into a three-year-long debate over its future.

While this will be the official end of 47 years of Britain’s membership in what became the European Union, very little is set to change immediately. It’s the beginning of a transition period, scheduled to end on Dec. 31, during which London and Brussels must hash out the details of Britain’s future relationship with its European neighbors. Still, the moment carries enormous legal and symbolic weight.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet were to begin their day with a meeting in Sunderland, the city in northern England that was the first to announce it had voted in favor of leaving the European Union on the night of the 2016 referendum.

It was the first of a handful of celebratory, but noticeably muted, official events to mark the day, suggesting that a pro-Brexit government is seeking to avoid the appearance of gloating. In the referendum, 48 percent of voters wanted to remain part of the European Union, and later polls suggest that number may have grown since.

Flags will line Parliament Square and The Mall, the ceremonial avenue leading to Buckingham Palace, and government buildings will be lit up in the red, white and blue of the Union Jack.

A countdown clock will be projected onto the front of 10 Downing Street, the prime minister’s official residence, along with a commemorative light display to “symbolize the strength and unity” of the four nations of the United Kingdom, the government said.

But a campaign for a celebratory 11 p.m. chime from Big Ben — the great bell of Parliament’s clock tower, which is currently silenced for restoration work — did not succeed.

In Brussels, the three presidents of the European Union institutions will give a joint statement Friday morning, expected to reflect a jointly published article in which they detail a hopeful future for the union.

“Dawn of a new era”: Johnson’s planned speech on Britain’s next act.

In the years of debate over Britain’s exit from the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was never one for nuance, even declaring that he would “rather be dead in a ditch” than see Brexit delayed again.

But as the hour of reckoning approaches, Downing Street has been remarkably subdued, not wanting to rub salt in the still raw wounds of those who desperately wanted to remain — about half the country.

When he addresses the nation tonight at 10 p.m., Mr. Johnson will attempt to strike a hopeful and conciliatory note.

“Our job as the government, my job, is to bring this country together and take us forward,” he will say, according to excerpts released by his office. “This is not an end but a beginning. This is the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act.”

Of course, the next year of negotiations over Britain’s future trade relationship with the European Union will play a large role in determining what that new act might look like.

But that concern was for another day. Mr. Johnson, instead, will use his remarks to convince the public that Brexit is “not an end but a beginning.”

“This is the dawn of a new era in which we no longer accept that your life chances — your family’s life chances — should depend on which part of the country you grow up in,” he will tell the nation. “This is the moment when we begin to unite and level up.”

Front pages reveal a divided Britain.

The front pages of the country’s main newspapers offered several interpretations of Britain’s final day in the European Union.

Some celebrated the coming of a new dawn while others offered a bleak picture of the twilight of an era of cooperation.

“Yes, We Did It!” declared the tabloid Daily Express, while The Daily Mail, another conservative, pro-Brexit paper, lauded “A New Dawn for Britain,” with a photograph of the sunbathed white cliffs of Dover, 62 miles from the French coast.

The liberal and pro-European Guardian offered the headline “Small island,” with a miniature union flag planted in a crumbling sand castle on a beach, the same white cliffs visible in the distance. What comes next is uncertain, the paper wrote, calling Brexit the biggest gamble in a generation.

The I, another paper with liberal leanings, had “U.K.’s leap into the unknown” overlaid on a satellite view of Western Europe at night, a perspective that emphasized Britain’s physical closeness to its European Union neighbors.

The headline on the Edinburgh-based The Scotsman was “Farewell, not goodbye,” with the British, Scottish and European flags — a nod to reinvigorated calls for Scottish independence from Britain. Scots voted against independence in a 2014 referendum, but then voted strongly to remain in European Union two years later.

That divergence from England has helped fuel calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence, with the suggestion that an independent Scotland could then rejoin the European Union.

For those Britons already missing Europe, The Times of London promoted a travel supplement full of European escapes and the “Best places to stay in touch with the Continent.” And, finally, The Daily Star saw a reason to celebrate, but not the one other tabloids were highlighting.

“Tonight is a TRULY HISTORIC moment for our great nation,” blared the cover of what it called a souvenir edition. “That’s right, it’s the end of dry January.”

Christine Lagarde offers reassurances, even as the specter of recession looms.

Christine Lagarde, Europe’s top central banker, said she was sorry that Britain was leaving the European Union, but offered assurances that the split could take place without disrupting the financial system.

“It is with great regret that we see our British friends leave the European Union,” Ms. Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said in a statement. “We will work hard to ensure Brexit causes as little disruption as possible for the citizens, employers and financial markets in the euro area and the rest of the E.U.”

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have already set up a system to swap pounds and euros to ensure that banks don’t run short of either currency. Bank regulators on both sides have agreed to continue sharing information. And the European Central Bank has already issued licenses for 25 banks relocating from Britain to the euro currency zone.

Britain was never a member of the eurozone. But as a member of the European Union it contributed about 58 million euros, or $64 million, to the European Central Bank’s capital. It will now get that money back.

But fears that Brexit could hurt the European economy may already be proving justified. The eurozone grew only 0.1 percent during the last three months of 2019 compared with the previous quarter, according to official statistics published on Friday.

That was a significant slowdown from previous quarters and meant that the 19 countries in the eurozone grew only 1.2 percent during last year, according to a preliminary estimate.

“The specter of recession is back,” Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said in a note to investors on Friday.

Eurostat, the official statistics agency, didn’t give a reason for the slowdown. But one factor was probably the uncertainty caused by Brexit, which has made businesses hesitant to hire or to invest in expansion. Trade between the European Union and Britain has also shrunk since the country voted to leave.

E.U. leaders lament the loss and look to the future.

In an opinion article published across the European press, the presidents of the three main European Union institutions called Brexit Friday a “new dawn” for Europe.

After offering kind words on Britain’s departure, Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission, Charles Michel of the European Council and David Sassoli of the European Parliament tried to strike an upbeat tone.

“We need to look to the future and build a new partnership between enduring friends,” they wrote. “Together, our three institutions will do everything in their power to make it a success. We are ready to be ambitious.”

The article was published alongside a cheery video touting the European Union’s economic and climate-friendly credentials and maintaining that its remaining 27 members were “#strongertogether.”

Brussels wants the message to be clear, because while Britain’s departure has yet to inspire strong withdrawal movements in other countries, as some expected immediately after the 2016 referendum, many Europeans are disillusioned with the project of ever closer union.

“We have a common vision of where we want to go and a commitment to be ambitious on the defining issues of our times,” the three presidents said. “That work continues as soon as the sun rises tomorrow.”

Megan Specia, Elian Peltier, Jack Ewing, Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Michael Wolgelenter contributed reporting.

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2020-01-31 11:56:00Z
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Coronavirus outbreak declared a global emergency as virus spreads from one person to another for first time in U.S. - CBS News

An American citizen stuck in Wuhan says panic is rising in the quarantined city of 11 million as the U.S. government works to get about 1,000 Americans reportedly stuck in the locked down metropolis out.

"I just wish I could get my family off," Justin Steece told CBS News on Monday.  "We need to go to America." 

He and his wife Ling have lived in Wuhan for about a year and a half. Just three weeks ago she gave birth to their baby boy, Colm.

"Ling can't move because she had a c-section, so she can only do so much at the moment while she recovers fully," he said. "I have to go out; I have to get food, I have to do stuff like that, and my biggest fear is that I would go out, get sick not knowing it, and then come home and spread it to Ling and the baby."

U.S. embassy evacuates American citizens from Wuhan amid coronavirus outbreak

His wife doesn't yet have a U.S. visa, and Steece can't leave Wuhan to finish her paperwork under the lockdown. "Otherwise I would have evacuated with the rest of the people and gotten my wife and kid outta here," he told CBS News.

As the Chinese government races to try and contain the deadly virus, Steece said the efforts aren't really making anyone feel any better. "What you see, what the Chinese government is saying; 'oh it's calm, resolute,' the citizens are actually freaking out a little bit more than that," he said.

The State Department has chartered a flight to evacuate Americans from Wuhan on Tuesday, but Steece and his family won't be on it. It will carry U.S. consulate staff from Wuhan and some other U.S. citizens. The U.S. Embassy in Beijing said passengers on that flight to San Francisco should "anticipate" being screened when they land.

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2020-01-31 10:59:00Z
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Coronavirus outbreak declared a global emergency as virus spreads from one person to another for first time in U.S. - CBS News

An American citizen stuck in Wuhan says panic is rising in the quarantined city of 11 million as the U.S. government works to get about 1,000 Americans reportedly stuck in the locked down metropolis out.

"I just wish I could get my family off," Justin Steece told CBS News on Monday.  "We need to go to America." 

He and his wife Ling have lived in Wuhan for about a year and a half. Just three weeks ago she gave birth to their baby boy, Colm.

"Ling can't move because she had a c-section, so she can only do so much at the moment while she recovers fully," he said. "I have to go out; I have to get food, I have to do stuff like that, and my biggest fear is that I would go out, get sick not knowing it, and then come home and spread it to Ling and the baby."

U.S. embassy evacuates American citizens from Wuhan amid coronavirus outbreak

His wife doesn't yet have a U.S. visa, and Steece can't leave Wuhan to finish her paperwork under the lockdown. "Otherwise I would have evacuated with the rest of the people and gotten my wife and kid outta here," he told CBS News.

As the Chinese government races to try and contain the deadly virus, Steece said the efforts aren't really making anyone feel any better. "What you see, what the Chinese government is saying; 'oh it's calm, resolute,' the citizens are actually freaking out a little bit more than that," he said.

The State Department has chartered a flight to evacuate Americans from Wuhan on Tuesday, but Steece and his family won't be on it. It will carry U.S. consulate staff from Wuhan and some other U.S. citizens. The U.S. Embassy in Beijing said passengers on that flight to San Francisco should "anticipate" being screened when they land.

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2020-01-31 10:42:00Z
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Brexit: UK to quit EU at 23:00 GMT, as PM promises 'new dawn' - BBC News

The UK will leave the EU at 23:00 GMT, ending 47 years of membership.

In a video message to be released an hour earlier, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will call Brexit - which follows more than three years of political wrangling - a "new dawn".

A series of events including marches, celebrations and candlelit vigils will be held by both Brexiteers and pro-EU demonstrators.

Little will change immediately, as the UK begins a "transition period".

Most EU laws will continue to be in force - including the free movement of people - until the end of December, by which time the UK aims to have reached a permanent free trade agreement with the EU.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn urged the country not to "turn inwards" and instead "build a truly internationalist, diverse and outward-looking Britain".

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the UK "must be united in a common vision for our country, however great our differences on achieving it".

Former Prime Minister David Cameron, who led the campaign to remain in the EU during the 2016 referendum, called it a "very big day for our country", adding that he believed the UK could "make a success of the choice that we made".

And Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said: "At last the day comes when we break free. A massive victory for the people against the establishment."

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Brexit was originally scheduled for 29 March last year but was repeatedly delayed when MPs rejected a previous withdrawal agreement reached by the EU and former Prime Minister Theresa May.

Mr Johnson was able to get his own deal through Parliament after winning December's general election with a House of Commons majority of 80, on a pledge to "get Brexit done".

This brought to an end more than three years of political argument, following the referendum, in which 52% of voters backed leaving the EU.

The prime minister will hold a cabinet meeting in Sunderland - the city that was the first to back Brexit when results were announced after the 2016 referendum - on Friday morning.

Mr Johnson, who led the 2016 campaign to get the UK out of the EU, will attempt to strike an optimistic, non-triumphalist note in his message, stressing the need to bring all sides together.

"The most important thing to say tonight is that this is not an end but a beginning," he will say in a message filmed in Downing Street.

"This is the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act. It is a moment of real national renewal and change."

Brexit Party MEPs, including Ann Widdecombe, left the European Parliament in Brussels led by a bagpiper.

Supporters of the EU are expected to take part in a procession through Whitehall at 15:00 GMT to "bid a fond farewell" to the union.

Later, Brexiteers will gather in Parliament Square for a celebration, and a clock counting down to the moment the UK leaves the EU will be projected on to Downing Street.

Buildings along Whitehall will be lit up and Union flags line Parliament Square.

A new commemorative 50p coin will also come into circulation to mark the UK's withdrawal.

However, Big Ben will not chime at 23:00 GMT due to ongoing renovation works.

In Brussels, the UK flag will be removed from the EU institutions, with one Union flag expected to be consigned to a museum.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen paid tribute to UK citizens who had "contributed to the European Union and made it stronger".

"It is the story of old friends and new beginnings now," she said. "Therefore it is an emotional day, but I'm looking forward to the next stage."

Upcoming negotiations would be "fair" but each side would fight for its interests, she added.

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Irish Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney told Sky News he thought the EU and UK would struggle to reach a trade deal during the 11-month transition period, as there was "too much to agree".

In Scotland, which voted to stay in the EU in the 2016 referendum, candlelit vigils are planned.

And in a speech in Edinburgh later, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said Scotland was being "taken out of the European Union against the wishes of the overwhelming majority" of its people.

She argued that Scotland had "the prospect of a brighter, better future as an equal, independent European nation".

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For Labour, Mr Corbyn, who is due to stand down as party leader in April, said the UK was "at a crossroads", saying his party would "hold the government to account every step of the way".

Liberal Democrat acting leader Sir Ed Davey vowed his pro-EU party would "never stop fighting" to have the "closest possible relationship" with Europe.

He said it would be on a "damage-limitation exercise to stop a hard Brexit hurting British people".

Cabinet minister Michael Gove told BBC Breakfast he was "relieved" and "delighted" that Brexit was "at last coming to pass".

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2020-01-31 10:18:45Z
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Five key developments this week on the spread of coronavirus in the US - CNN

The number of cases skyrocketed this week, and the US warned its citizens not to visit China as a wave of panic and infections increase. Even the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency Thursday, saying the virus is now a risk beyond China.

Here are the key developments in the US this week and what's next:

A woman infects her husband in Illinois

An Illinois woman suffering from the respiratory virus infected her husband, becoming the first case transmitted from person to person in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

The couple are in their 60s, and the husband has underlying medical issues, the CDC said. The husband's infection makes him the sixth person with coronavirus in the US, including patients in Washington state, California and Arizona.

"We understand that this may be concerning, but based on what we know now, our assessment remains that the immediate risk to the American public is low," Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, told reporters.

Coronavirus has killed 213 people and infected nearly 10,000 others in China, most of them in the hardest-hit city of Wuhan. Outside mainland China, there are 108 confirmed cases, including the six in the United States.

More Americans set to be evacuated from Wuhan

The State Department is planning more evacuation flights for US citizens in Wuhan leaving around Monday. No more details were immediately available.

Just days earlier, it evacuated nearly 200 Americans Wednesday from Wuhan. They are being monitored for symptoms for at least three days at the March Air Reserve Base near Riverside, California.

If health officials determine they don't pose a danger and can go home, they will be monitored by local officials for the 14-day incubation period. They can choose to remain at the base for the two weeks.

One unidentified person tried to leave the base, and was ordered to stay in quarantine for the entire incubation period or until otherwise cleared, Riverside County Public Health said Thursday.

US issues its highest-level warning for China

US officials are warning citizens not to travel to China after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a global health emergency.

Those currently in China should consider leaving, the State Department said. Meanwhile, the White House announced a new task force that's meeting daily to discuss the threat of the coronavirus. The task force will help monitor and contain the spread of the virus, and ensure Americans have accurate and up-to-date health and travel information, it said.

The department has tried to dissuade Americans' travel to China in recent weeks in response to the outbreak. It raised the travel advisory on Monday from Level 2 to Level 3. It's now at Level 4.

Hoaxes spread along with the panic

As the coronavirus outbreak grows, officials in several US states are cracking down on false information about the spread of the disease.

Most of the false information is originating online, spreading fear about the virus that has sickened thousands worldwide.

In Los Angeles County, public health officials warned residents Thursday that a letter claiming a potential coronavirus outbreak in Carson City is fake. In a suburb north of Los Angeles, a high school in Santa Clarita also issued a statement warning against false social media reports on the coronavirus outbreak.

School districts in San Diego and Arizona are also warning residents about fake images of news stories claiming the coronavirus is spreading locally.

Faceook has said it's taking steps to prevent the spread of misinformation on the disease. It plans to remove content with false claims or conspiracy theories, and is urging leading global health organizations and local authorities to flag such information.

"This includes claims related to false cures or prevention methods — like drinking bleach cures the coronavirus — or claims that create confusion about health resources that are available," Facebook said in a statement.

Some states push for tougher measures

Some states are calling for tougher measures to help combat the virus.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee asked US federal health officials to expand screenings to passengers returning to the United States from China at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, where the country's first confirmed case of the deadly virus entered. Inslee wants the CDC to collect passengers' health history and temperature readings.

In Hawaii, the state closest to the coronavirus outbreak, officials are urging residents to avoid discretionary trips to China. There are currently no cases of coronavirus in Hawaii, and officials said there's minimal risk to people on the islands.

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2020-01-31 09:15:00Z
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Britain is leaving the European Union today. The hard part comes next - CNN

Despite this cataclysmic event, almost all of the immediate changes will be invisible to the public. The United Kingdom will enter the transition period that was agreed between the British government and the EU. And the terms of that agreement mean that for the next 11 months, the UK remains an EU member state in all but name.

What actually happens tonight?

The UK formally leaves the EU. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address the nation in what can be presumed to be an optimistic message. Other Brexiteers will be celebrating in grander style, as parties are being held across the country -- including one opposite the Houses of Parliament, the body that thwarted Brexit so many times in 2019.

Remain voters will be holding similar protest events all over Britain.

The mood in Brussels will be somber. The Union flag will be removed from all EU institutions (one of which will be placed in a museum in Brussels) and senior EU politicians will probably make statements expressing that this is a sad day for Europe and that they want to remain the closest of friends with Europe.

What actually changes tonight?

In theory, quite a lot; in practice, very little. The UK might be leaving the EU, but as of 11:01 p.m., it will continue to obey all EU law and European courts. In the coming months, it will continue to pay into the EU budget and comply with any changes to EU law. That means that the only things that will change are largely symbolic. The UK will cease to have any meaningful representation in EU institutions and will no longer attend any meetings of EU leaders. So it will be obeying EU rules while having no say in EU policy.

What doesn't change?

Most things that actually affect you. Businesses will be able to operate as normal, meaning that you as a customer will not be affected. People traveling to Europe will not be affected during the transition period, and EU citizens will still be able to move freely around the bloc.

What comes next?

The end of phase one marks the start of phase two. And if the past three and a half years have been anything to go by, phase two is going to be far more of a nightmare than phase one.

The Brexit transition period is due to end on December 31 of this year. That means the UK has to negotiate its future relationship with Europe in just 11 months. Failure to reach an agreement would mean the hardest Brexit possible, causing economic damage for both sides and possibly the wider world. This is a scenario that both sides are eager to avoid -- even as they continue to engage in their game of high-stakes brinkmanship.

Formal negotiations will begin on March 3. In the meantime, both sides will outline their priorities and draw their red lines. If history tells us anything, the UK will be more likely to back down than Brussels.

Trade-off on trade

The bulk of these negotiations will focus on the UK and the EU's future trading relationship. Trade deals normally take years, if not decades, to negotiate. The EU's deal with Canada, for example, took seven years to hammer out. And the EU is famously difficult to negotiate with because of its complicated internal politics. The Canada deal, for example, almost fell at the last hurdle when Wallonia, a region of Belgium, refused to ratify the deal. However, it is worth pointing out that the UK-EU deal starts from a place of total alignment, meaning comparisons to other trade deals are not fair.

But that's just trade. There are still many unanswered questions about exactly how much money the UK would pay the EU in exchange for access to its market and what, if any agreement might be reached on intelligence sharing security, aviation and fishing. And the controversial issue of what will happen on the Irish border is likely to feature heavily in any final deal.

Johnson has not formally announced his red lines yet, but it's safe to say that his priority will be sealing a free trade agreement that makes both importing and exporting as straightforward as possible, while freeing the UK from strict EU rules. If this is achievable, it would mean the UK continuing to trade in the EU but being flexible on regulations -- a situation that could come in handy when striking trade deals with other nations like the US and China.

"With the EU, we need a close partnership based on zero tariffs and quotas as well as regulatory recognition, adequacy and equivalence in all areas including services and financial services," says Shanker Singham, a competition and trade lawyer. "We won't be immediately diverging all over the place, but we must reserve the right to do so."

This issue of divergence is alarming many in Brussels. In short, if the UK is willing to diverge from the EU in areas like tax, food standards and financial regulation, it risks undermining the EU's precious single market -- the EU's most valuable asset and top bargaining chip. And if Brussels thinks that Johnson has plans to undercut the EU, it won't hesitate to restrict access to the world's largest economic bloc.

"For the EU, the trade-off is simple: if the UK diverges and no longer meets EU standards, or British businesses gain an unfair competitive advantage over EU business, then it will have less access to the EU market," says Georgina Wright, an EU expert at the Institute for Government think tank.

This concern in Brussels is not unreasonable. When the UK points to trading relationships that the EU has with countries like Canada and Japan, it misses two crucial points. First, agreements reached with external countries were about increasing engagement. As the UK leaves, it is about reducing engagement. Second, the UK shares a common border with the EU. And as one EU diplomat points out, "There is a direct relationship between trade and distance: the further you are away the less trade you do. So when we talk trade with Canada, we know that their undercutting of standards will not have the same effect as the UK."

Notwithstanding this cold reality, it's clear that both sides desperately want to accommodate one another. The question is whether their competing aims are compatible. "Both sides want to maintain reasonably strong relations, but on the EU side this clearly has to be appropriate with existing structures and agreements," says David Henig, the UK director of the European Center For International Political Economy.

"On the UK side it will be about allowing regulatory flexibility while still facilitating trade. Defining that in great detail will be a challenge for both sides, though the EU is concerned that the UK doesn't understand this sufficiently."

Calm before -- and after the storm

The gloves are already off. France's Europe minister, Amelie de Montchalin, said in a news conference on Wednesday that "France is ready to sign a Brexit deal very quickly if the UK commits to full regulatory alignment that could guarantee no dumping."

That lack of understanding is the reason this could all get ugly. Regardless of what both sides might say about reaching a mutually beneficial agreement, in negotiations with the EU, there is always a winner and a loser.

The UK will see winning as having its cake and eating it: near-frictionless trade with the EU while enjoying the freedom to so as it pleases at home. It could use state aid to give British businesses a competitive edge or slash tax rates to attract foreign investment in ways that would flout EU rules on competition.

For the EU, hugging the UK tight and stopping it from drifting toward an economic rival, e.g. the US, would be a victory. Brexiteers have long talked up global trade deals as being the upside of Brexit, and no victory would be sweeter than a wide-ranging deal with the world's only hyperpower.

But for the UK, it will ultimately find that in trade deals with both the EU and the US, it is going to be the smaller partner and to some extent will be expected to sign on the dotted line.

Time is running out. Johnson has said that he has no intention of extending the transition period. If he is to extract concessions from the EU and get a deal that looks like Brexit was worth it, he's going to have to hope that European fears of divergence and the relatively short period to get a deal done will focus minds in Brussels.

For virtually all of 2019, the British establishment was tearing its hair out over whether or not it would avoid a no-deal Brexit. Getting a Brexit deal through Parliament sucked the life out of British politics. When Boris Johnson finally won his majority last December, a certain degree of calm fell as the key obstacle to getting Brexit done had been cleared.

Now, Johnson finds himself facing 11 months of hellish negotiations with another threat of no deal at the end of the tunnel.

He does have other bargaining chips at his disposal: the EU is very keen to reach agreement on areas other than trade, such as fishing rights, data sharing and security. Johnson could concede on these to get a more attractive trade deal.

But ultimately, Brexit is now weeks away from hurtling towards its next critical deadline. And for the UK more than anyone else, to get what it wants could require shutting its eyes and hoping for the best.

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2020-01-31 07:33:00Z
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