Sabtu, 14 Desember 2019
Trump administration inches closer to massive trade deal with China - Fox News
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2019-12-14 15:43:48Z
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What did the UK elections teach us about 2020? Trust the polls - CNN
Maybe you think Republican President Donald Trump has reason to smile after his friend, Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, won a big mandate.
Maybe you think the crushing defeat of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party shows the peril of the Democrats potentially nominating Bernie Sanders.
Those theories may prove to be true, but I think the clearest lesson is staring us right in the face: The polls are still pretty good as we head into the 2020 presidential election in the US.
Take a look at the average of polls for the four parties that have earned at least 10 seats each in the House of Commons (the UK Parliament's lower House). The average of the final UK polls had the Conservatives winning 43% of the vote, Labour 33%, the Liberal Democrats 12% and the Scottish Nationals 4%.
The actual result was Conservatives taking 43.6%, Labour 32.2%, the Liberal Democrats 11.6% and the Scottish Nationals 3.9%. In other words, each of these parties got within 1 point of its final polled vote share.
This remarkably accurate result was better than we'd expect based on history. The final 2019 polling average missed the margin between Conservative and Labour by about 1.9 points. Since the 1945 election (i.e. the prior 20 UK general elections), the average final poll had missed by 3.9 points.
Indeed, despite a lot of cries that the polls are broken, the UK elections taking place during the Trump administration show that isn't true. Beyond this year, the difference between the Conservatives and Labour margin in the final 2017 polling average and election result was 4 points. In other words, it's right in line with what we'd expect, given the historical polling accuracy rates.
The US's own polls have likewise been fairly accurate during the Trump era. The average House, Senate and governor's polls were about a point more accurate in 2018 than they had been in similar elections over the prior 20 years. The same was generally true for House special election polling in the 2017-2018 cycle and the three governor elections of 2019 (Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi).
Another key point is that just because one side outperformed in the polls in the last election doesn't mean the same party will outperform in the next one. I know some people were expecting (and a lot of Labourites were hoping) that because the polls underestimated Labour in 2017 they would do the same in 2019. It didn't happen. The Conservatives were actually slightly underestimated.
Again, we saw this same lesson play out in the US over the past few years. After the polling underestimated the Republicans almost across the board in 2016, there was less of a systematic error in 2018. The polls slightly underestimated the Democrats on average. Now, the polls weren't perfect in 2018 in the US, but they were better than average and correctly projected a strong Democratic year. Similarly, the polls, if anything, underestimated the Democrats in the gubernatorial elections of 2019 and special elections over the course of 2017 and 2018.
The direction of the polling errors is most often random. If something is methodologically amiss in surveys, good pollsters tend to figure out what's wrong before the next election.
None of this guarantees that the final polls will correctly gauge who is going to win or lose in 2020. There are still margins of error, so someone slightly ahead in the polls may end up losing. Likewise, someone slightly behind may end up winning.
But in an era with a lot of disinformation out there, the polls continue to do a very good job of separating the signal from the noise.
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2019-12-14 13:32:00Z
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Former Sudanese ruler Omar al-Bashir convicted of corruption, money laundering - The Washington Post
CAIRO — A court in Sudan convicted the country’s former authoritarian ruler Omar al-Bashir of money laundering and corruption Saturday, delivering a verdict that few Sudanese expected a year ago when a massive populist revolt erupted.
But Bashir’s sentence of two years in a minimum-security lockup is unlikely to appease many of the victims of his brutal, three-decade-long rule, who are seeking justice for what they describe as atrocities committed by his security forces.
“While this trial is a positive step toward accountability for some of his alleged crimes, he remains wanted for heinous crimes committed against the Sudanese people,” said Joan Nyanyuki, Amnesty International’s Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes in August.
Bashir’s prosecution — as well as other judicial cases against him — is seen as a test of whether Sudan can bring closure for the abuses endured by many citizens under his rule. It is also a test of whether the nation’s political transition can move forward, despite the presence of Bashir’s loyalists in the government bureaucracy and society.
On Saturday, hundreds of his supporters gathered in the streets near the presidential palace in the capital, Khartoum, ahead of the verdict. Troops and armored vehicles blocked roads and a heavy security presence was visible at the courthouse.
Inside, Bashir sat inside a metal cage for defendants, dressed in a traditional white turban and robe, as the judge read out the verdict.
“The convict, Omar al-Bashir, is consigned to a social reform facility for a period of two years,” the judge Al-Sadiq Abdelrahman said.
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Afp Via Getty Images
Sudan's deposed military president Omar Hassan al-Bashir in a defendant's cage during his corruption trial at a court in Khartoum on Dec. 14, 2019.
The 75-year-old former dictator is also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and genocide linked to government-backed attacks in Sudan’s western Darfur region in the 2000s. But Bashir remained untouched for more nearly a decade after the ICC arrest warrant was issued, often taunting the international community by traveling in African and Middle Eastern nations without being detained.
[Opinion: The International Criminal Court must do better]
During his rule, Bashir was also accused of sponsoring terrorism. That included harboring Osama bin Laden and playing a role in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania that killed 224 people, including 12 Americans, and the 2000 attack on the USS Cole in Aden, Yemen that killed 17 U.S. sailors and injured 40 others.
Sudan was slapped with U.S. sanctions, and remains on the State Department’s list of state-sponsoring terrorism.
Saturday’s verdict arrives a year after Sudanese protesters took the streets, staging massive demonstrations and sit-ins — against rising prices, food shortages and, by the end, Bashir’s iron-fisted rule. In April, Sudan’s military buckled to the pressure and ousted him. The uprising eventually led to the creation of power-sharing agreement between the military and civilians.
Sudanese law mandates that Bashir will spend his two-year sentence in a government correctional facility for elderly people convicted of non-death penalty crimes.
But the ex-president, who rose to power in a military coup in 1989, is set to remain in jail because he faces a separate trial on charges of incitement and playing a role in the killing of protesters before he was toppled. This week, Bashir was also questioned over his role in the 1989 coup.
On Saturday, some Sudanese took to social media to ridicule the verdict.
“Given his age, he will be placed in a rehabilitation center. This is a joke,” tweeted Mutasim Ali, a Sudanese law student at George Washington University. “The deep state is still exist particularly in our judiciary and to make reforms will take us decades. That’s why cooperation with the ICC to handover Bashir and others is due.”
[Newly united, Sudanese Americans push for civilian rule in their homeland]
Sudan’s transitional government has yet to publicly say whether they will hand Bashir over to the ICC at The Hague. But Sudan’s military, a partner in the current government, has said it would not extradite Bashir.
Bashir’s testimony during his corruption and money laundering trial offered some clues on the reluctance to hand him over to the ICC: he can potentially implicate other powerful Sudanese military commanders and politicians in war crimes and genocide charges. They have also depended on Bashir’s largesse over the years.
When he was arrested in April, millions of dollars, euros and other currencies were seized from his home. In August, Bashir told the court that the cash was mainly from $25 million given to him by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Some of the cash was distributed to a military hospital and a university.
But $5 million, said Bashir, was given to the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary unit made up of former members of the Janjaweed, the militia Bashir deployed and is accused of seeking to ethnically cleanse Darfur through the burning of villages and killings.
The head of the Rapid Support Forces, Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti, is on the transitional government’s ruling council. Hemedti’s unit is widely accused by pro-democracy protesters of leading the crackdown against them, killing dozens.
On Saturday, the judge also ordered the confiscation of the millions found in Bashir's home. But Bashir’s lawyer, Ahmed Ibrahim al-Tahir, said that the ex-president plans to appeal the verdict.
“The judge made the ruling based on political motives, but despite that we still have confidence in the Sudanese judiciary,” Tahir told reporters, according to the Reuters news agency.
Read more:
Sudan repeals law that let police flog women for wearing pants
Watch: Sudanese women demand a greater voice after Bashir’s fall
Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world
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2019-12-14 13:43:00Z
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General election 2019: Labour facing long haul, warns McDonnell - BBC News
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Labour faces a "long haul" as it attempts to gain power following its fourth election defeat in a row, shadow chancellor John McDonnell has warned.
He rejected claims that leader Jeremy Corbyn had been responsible for the result, instead blaming "the overwhelming issue" of Brexit.
But some current and ex-MPs have said Mr Corbyn's unpopularity contributed to Labour losing dozens of seats.
Boris Johnson's Conservatives won on Thursday with a Commons majority of 80.
The outcome, far more positive for the Tories than most opinion polls had predicted, has prompted much soul-searching within Labour, which last won a general election under Tony Blair in 2005.
Mr Corbyn has announced he will stand down in the near future and Mr McDonnell, one of his closest allies, said he had been "the right leader" for the party.
But Labour's Helen Goodman, who lost her Redcar seat to the Conservatives on Thursday, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that "the biggest factor was obviously the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn as the leader".
And Dame Margaret Hodge, Labour MP for Barking, east London, said she felt "anger because this is an election we should have won".
She added that, under Mr Corbyn's leadership - during which Labour has faced criticism for its handling of anti-Semitism allegations among its membership - voters had come to see it "as a nasty party".
Meanwhile, Wes Streeting, Labour MP for Ilford North, said the party's "far-left" manifesto had alienated much of the electorate.
Mr McDonnell disagreed with personal criticism of his leader, saying: "The overwhelming issue was Brexit and the Labour Party was caught on the horns of a dilemma.
"We had a party which was largely supportive of Remain, but many of us represented Leave constituencies."
In the election, Labour's number of Commons seats fell to 203, its lowest since 1935.
Mr Corbyn, leader since 2015, ran for prime minister on a promise to hold a second referendum on Brexit, saying that during any campaign he would remain neutral - in contrast to Mr Johnson's promise to take the UK out of the EU by 31 January.
Mr McDonnell said: "If we went one way, to Leave, we would have alienated a lot of our Remain support. If we went for Remain, we'd alienate a lot of our Leave support.
"We tried to bring the country together. It failed. We have to accept that, take it on the chin. We have to own that and then move on."
Mr McDonnell, MP for Hayes and Harlington in west London, said Labour now needed to have "a constructive debate" about its future, discussing "what went right and what went wrong" during the election campaign.
He argued that Mr Corbyn, who has received criticism from some Labour figures for not standing down immediately, was right to stay on "for a couple of months".
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It was necessary because of the "expertise" required to deal with issues such as Brexit and the forthcoming Budget, he said.
Discussing Mr Johnson's government, Mr McDonnell said: "My fear is that we're in for a long haul now, possibly five years.
"The two issues that we face are still there - huge, grotesque levels of inequality and, the issue that never really emerged in the campaign, which was climate change, this existential threat that must be our priority.
"Brexit, well, we'll see what the government brings back in terms of its negotiations. The people have decided we need to implement that, but we've got to get the best deal to protect jobs and the economy."
He added: "My fear is five years of a fossil fuel-backed government under Boris Johnson means we'll miss this five-years opportunity of saving our planet."
At the 2017 general election, Mr Corbyn's first as Labour leader, the party won 40% of votes and gained 30 MPs, denying Theresa May's Conservatives a majority.
But on Thursday it received 32% of the vote and lost 59 seats, including several of its traditional strongholds in the north of England.
Mr Corbyn said that, during the election campaign, he had done "everything I could" and that he had "pride" in the party's manifesto.
The Labour leader's sons, Tommy, Seb and Benjamin, tweeted a tribute to their father, calling him an "honest, humble and good-natured" figure in the "poisonous world" of politics.
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2019-12-14 13:10:54Z
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Boris Johnson calls for unity after landside victory - CBS This Morning
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2019-12-14 12:46:11Z
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North Korea conducts another test at long-range rocket site - Fox News
North Korea said Saturday that it successfully performed another “crucial test” at its long-range rocket launch site that will further strengthen its nuclear deterrent.
The test possibly involved technologies to improve intercontinental ballistic missiles that could potentially reach the continental United States.
The announcement comes as North Korea continues to pressure the Trump administration for major concessions as it approaches an end-of-year deadline set by leader Kim Jong Un to salvage faltering nuclear negotiations.
North Korea’s Academy of Defense Science did not specify what was tested on Friday. Just days earlier, the North said it conducted a “very important test” at the site on the country’s northwestern coast, prompting speculation that it involved a new engine for either an ICBM or a space launch vehicle.
KELLY CRAFT AT UN: NORTH KOREA MISSILE LAUNCHES 'RISK CLOSING THE DOOR' ON DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS
The announcement suggests that the country is preparing to do something to provoke the United States if Washington doesn’t back down and make concessions to ease sanctions and pressure on Pyongyang in deadlocked nuclear negotiations.
An unnamed spokesman for the academy said scientists received warm congratulations from members from the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee who attended the test that lasted from 10:41 to 10:48 p.m. Friday at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, where the North has conducted satellite launches and liquid-fuel missile engine tests in recent years.
In this March 6, 2019, file photo, people watch a TV screen showing an image of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Tongchang-ri, North Korea, during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea. North Korea on Saturday, Dec. 14, says it successfully performed another "crucial test" as its long-range rocket launch site that would further strengthen its "reliable strategic nuclear deterrent."The signs read: " North's Tongchang-ri launch site." (AP)
The spokesman said the successful outcome of the latest test, in addition to the one on Dec. 7, “will be applied to further bolster up the reliable strategic nuclear deterrent of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea,” referring to North Korea’s formal name.
Kim Dong-yub, a former South Korean military officer and currently an analyst from Seoul’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said the North mentioning its nuclear deterrent makes it clear it tested a new engine for an ICBM, not a satellite-launch vehicle. Kim said it was notable that North Korea announced the specific length of the test, which he said possibly signals a larger liquid-fuel ICBM engine.
North Korea’s current ICBMs, including the Hwasong-15, are built with first stages that are powered by a pair of engines that experts say are modeled after Russian designs. When the North first tested the engine in 2016, it said the test lasted for 200 seconds and demonstrated a thrust of 80 tons-force.
TRUMP A 'HEEDLESS AND ERRATIC OLD MAN', NORTH KOREA SAYS
The North Korean statement came a day before Stephen Biegun, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, was to arrive in South Korea for discussions with South Korean officials over the nuclear diplomacy. It was unclear whether Biegun would attempt contact with North Korean officials at the inter-Korean border, which has often been used as a diplomatic venue, or whether such an effort would be successful.
During a provocative run of weapons tests in 2017, Kim Jong Un conducted three flight tests of ICBMs that demonstrated potential range to reach deep into the U.S. mainland, raising tensions and triggering verbal warfare with President Donald Trump as they exchanged crude insults and threats of nuclear annihilation. Experts say that the North still needs to improve the missiles, such as ensuring that their warheads survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric reentry, for them to be considered a viable threat.
Protesters wear masks of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, right, during a rally to denounce policies of Moon on North Korea near the U.S. embassy in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, Dec. 13, 2019. (AP)
Relations between Kim and Trump became cozier in 2018 after Kim initiated diplomacy that led to their first summit in June that year in Singapore, where they issued a vague statement on a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, without describing when or how it would occur.
But negotiations faltered after the United States rejected North Korean demands for broad sanctions relief in exchange for a partial surrender of the North’s nuclear capabilities at Kim’s second summit with Trump in Vietnam in February.
Trump and Kim met for a third time in June at the border between North and South Korea and agreed to resume talks. But an October working-level meeting in Sweden broke down over what the North Koreans described as the Americans’ “old stance and attitude.”
NORTH KOREA CONDUCTED 'VERY IMPORTANT TEST' AT SATELLITE LAUNCH FACILITY: STATE MEDIA
Kim, who unilaterally suspended nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests last year during talks with Washington and Seoul, has said North Korea could seek a “new path” if the United States persists with sanctions and pressure against the North.
North Korea has also conducted 13 rounds of ballistic missile and rocket artillery tests since May, and has hinted at lifting its moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests if the Trump administration fails to make substantial concessions before the new year.
Some experts doubt that Kim would revive the tensions of 2017 by restarting nuclear and ICBM tests, which would cross a metaphorical “red line” and risk shattering his hard-won diplomacy with Washington. They say Kim is likely to pressure Trump with military activities that pose less of a direct threat to the U.S. and by bolstering a united front with Beijing and Moscow. Both are the North's allies and have called for the U.N. Security Council to consider easing sanctions on Pyongyang to help nuclear negotiations move forward.
Saturday's news of the test came after U.S. Ambassador Kelly Craft criticized the North’s ballistic testing activity during a U.N. Security Council meeting on Wednesday, saying that the tests were “deeply counterproductive” and risk closing the door on prospects for negotiating peace.
She also cited North Korean hints of “a resumption of serious provocations,” which she said would mean they could launch space vehicles using long-range ballistic missile technology or test ICBMs, “which are designed to attack the continental United States with nuclear weapons.”
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While Craft said that the Trump administration is “prepared to be flexible” and take concrete, parallel steps toward an agreement on resuming talks, North Korea described her comments as a “hostile provocation” and warned that Washington may have squandered its chance at salvaging the fragile nuclear diplomacy.
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2019-12-14 11:46:28Z
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U.K. election: How Conservatives won Labour's 'red wall' heartlands - NBC News
BOLSOVER, England — Standing outside his local pub in this seemingly forgotten English town, John Puntis is discussing his family history. It's a story that goes some way to explain the earthquake that just reshaped the political landscape across the United Kingdom.
On Friday, the country awoke to Prime Minister Boris Johnson winning a resounding victory in the nationwide general election. His Conservative Party flipped dozens of seats that for decades had been considered untouchable bastions of the left-wing Labour Party.
That shift appears partly down to people like Puntis. Like his father and grandfather before him, he was once a diehard Labour-voting miner before the local coal pits closed in the 1980s.
This week he broke with family tradition and for the first time voted against Labour, a party once synonymous with working-class community spirit.
Switches like this helped his hometown of Bolsover stun the nation and elect its first Conservative Party lawmaker since the constituency was created in 1950. This trend repeated as the Conservatives proceeded to smash through Labour's "red wall" of stronghold working-class seats that once stretched from coast to coast.
"It's groundbreaking," Puntis, 61, said cheerfully, dressed in a red jacket on this chilly, grey morning around three hours' drive north of London. Speaking with a matter-of-fact but friendly manner about the election the night before, he explained, "I've always voted Labour before, but I’m pleased we have a Conservative member of Parliament because now we can get on with Brexit."
Almost all of these conquered Labour strongholds voted to leave the European Union in 2016. For many, that referendum was a proxy for other simmering grievances relating to immigration and the idea Europe had too much control over their lives.
In Bolsover, one of the least well-educated, least ethnically diverse constituencies in the country, some people say they feel forgotten by politicians in London. They are confused, frustrated and angry, some say, at why, after three years of debate and delay, Brexit still hasn't been delivered.
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To them, the simple Conservative campaign promise to "get Brexit done" appealed.
"I think most people here voted for Brexit rather than for the local candidate," said Chris Christopher, 34, who runs a fruit and vegetable shop on the town's main street. "It's still going to be a massive shock around here because we've been Labour for so long."
Many people in this deprived area appeared to have few qualms about voting for a Conservative Party responsible for a decade of punishing austerity cuts, which slashed budgets for police, housing, welfare and other services.
These policies have been "entrenching high levels of poverty and inflicting unnecessary misery in" the world's sixth richest country, according to the United Nations.
Johnson, a privately educated Oxford University graduate of immense privilege, has promised to inject cash and resources into these ailing systems — but several campaign promises have already been exposed as somewhat tenuous.
It was a dirty campaign blighted by tricks and untruths by all major parties but most notably the Conservatives. It appears to have paid off.
A few miles up the road, the constituency of Don Valley elected a Conservative for the first time since 1922. Great Grimsby turned blue after voting Labour since 1945. And even former Prime Minister Tony Blair's old seat of Sedgefield was swallowed up by the Conservative advance.
In Bolsover, the outgoing Labour lawmaker, Dennis Skinner, 87, has been in office since 1970.
His local and national notoriety can be measured in him having his own nickname, "the Beast of Bolsover." He represents the old Labour of industrialism and trade unions, rather than the modern party that's seen as speaking for urban college graduates with liberal social attitudes.
Skinner's supporters will point to his age and recent hip replacement surgery that meant he had a reduced presence on the campaign trail. He was defeated by Conservative Mark Fletcher.
Flipping these Labour strongholds was key to Johnson securing his party's biggest win since 1987. For Labour, the night was a catastrophe. Its veteran socialist leader, Jeremy Corbyn, led the party to its worst performance at a nationwide general election since the 1930s.
"I voted for Labour but I don't trust Jeremy Corbyn," said Karen Hepworth, 62, who runs a market stall selling knitwear in Bolsover's square. Labour's campaign policy was to renegotiate a new Brexit deal with the E.U. and put it back to the people for another vote.
"Why do we need another referendum?" Hepworth asked in exasperation, echoing a seemingly widespread dislike of the Labour leader in Bolsover that tracks with national polls.
Although the Conservative victory was unambiguous, there is uncertainty ahead for the U.K.
In Brexit, Johnson's next hurdle is negotiating new trade deals with the E.U., Washington and elsewhere. He has little time to strike these deals, opening the possibility that he may be forced into concessions that could anger the hard-line Brexiteer wing of his party.
Meanwhile, in Scotland and Northern Ireland, there were gains Friday for nationalist lawmakers who want to separate from the U.K. and, in Northern Ireland's case, reunite with the Irish Republic to the south.
In this sense, the vote will do little to dampen fears, or hope, depending on your perspective, that the U.K. might be in danger of breaking apart.
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2019-12-14 10:11:00Z
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