Hong Kong braces for 'emergency' protest call for autonomy - Reuters

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong police fired volley after volley of tear gas to break up thousands of anti-government protesters, most dressed in black and wearing face masks, in Victoria Park, a traditional venue for rallies and vigils, and surrounding streets.

Protesters gather for a march billed as a global "emergency call" for autonomy, in Hong Kong, China November 2, 2019. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

It was an early, feverish response to nip in the bud a rally billed as an “emergency call” for autonomy for the former British colony that was promised its freedoms when it returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

The fast-moving crowds headed to the park through the Causeway Bay shopping district, some pulling up metal fencing and using a football goal to build barricades, their actions masked by others holding umbrellas. Activists threw at least one petrol bomb.

Many sang the British and U.S. national anthems, waving multi-national flags and a few calling for independence, a red line for Communist Party leaders in Beijing who have vowed to “crush the bones” of anyone pursuing such a move.

Police using loud-hailers warned them to disperse, saying they would be prosecuted for holding an illegal assembly on the 22nd straight weekend of protest.

The protesters took off in all directions, many throwing bricks as they charged towards Central, building makeshift barricades on the way.

Their route was taking them through the Wan Chai bar district where many rugby fans were gathered in bars pouring out on to the streets for the World Cup final in Japan.

Police fired more tear gas near police headquarters on Hennessy Road, the main artery to Central.

Protesters have taken to the streets for five months of sometimes violent unrest, angry at perceived Chinese meddling with Hong Kong’s freedoms, including its legal system. China denies the charge.

‘DOESN’T MAKE SENSE’

Activists have attacked police with petrol bombs, set street fires and trashed government buildings and businesses seen as pro-Beijing. One policeman was slashed in the neck with a knife last month.

Police have responded with tear gas, pepper spray, water cannon, rubber bullets and occasional live rounds. Several people have been wounded.

Saturday’s rally was not given official police permission, as is required, but that has not stopped people gathering in the past. Face masks were banned under a resuscitated colonial-era emergency law.

“It does not make sense (for this assembly to be unauthorised),” said one protester, 55, who only gave her name as Lulu. “This is our human right... The global support is very important. We are not only in Hong Kong. The whole world supports Hong Kong.”

Simon Tse, 84, came with his two daughters.

Slideshow (10 Images)

“I haven’t joined a protest on the street since the Oct. 1 march which became quite violent,” he told Reuters. “But today I am joining because we are calling for international support, urging help from 15 countries. This is the last chance for Hong Kong people.”

Government data on Thursday confirmed that Hong Kong slid into recession in the third quarter for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008.

Hong Kong is a semi-autonomous “special administrative region” of China according to the “one country, two systems” formula under which it returned to Chinese rule.

Reporting by Greg Torode, Clare Jim, Jessie Pang, John Geddie, Farah Master and Donny Kwok; Writing by Nick Macfie; Editing by Jacqueline Wong & Simon Cameron-Moore

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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2019-11-02 05:34:00Z
52780423536995

Boris Johnson's election gamble could cost him everything -- including Brexit - CNN International

That was the morning Theresa May learned her gamble to hold a snap general election had backfired. May's plan was to increase her tiny majority in Parliament to over 100 seats. Instead, she lost the small upper hand she had which made the delivery of any kind of Brexit impossible.

Boris Johnson is learning this the hard way. Having inherited May's minority government, Johnson discovered early on that his optimism wasn't enough to get Brexit done.

Despite doing the seemingly impossible and getting a new deal from the EU, he simply doesn't have the numbers in Parliament to pass the legislation required to deliver Brexit. Holding an election in which he secures a fresh majority was his only real option.

It's a gamble. Having promised to exit the EU by the end of October, Johnson risks not only further delays, but the prospect of losing Brexit altogether. Though he enjoys healthy poll leads right now, a lot can happen during an election campaign.

"A 15% lead sounds a lot, but voters can come back home or change their mind," explains Will Jennings, a Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southampton. "The thing to note with Johnson is he doesn't start even with the level of support Theresa May had in 2017."

Johnson's first big problem is the main opposition Labour Party. As May discovered, Jeremy Corbyn, Labour's leader, is a very effective campaigner. Corbyn surprised everyone in 2017 by picking up far more seats than expected. He did this despite being an underdog and with May looking like a strong, popular leader who had a plan to deliver Brexit and get on with an ambitious domestic agenda.

This time around, his job is arguably far easier. Johnson's aggressive political strategy since taking office has allowed Corbyn to paint himself as the anti-Johnson. Corbyn is making a lot of noise about the fact that Johnson is on friendly terms with the President Donald Trump, a man who is very unpopular with the British public.

Corbyn says that Johnson's myopic obsession with securing a trade deal with America would mean selling out the UK's National Health Service (NHS) to US drug companies. And Trump handed Corbyn a priceless soundbite earlier this week, when he called the London-based talk radio station LBC to heap praise on Johnson and say that the opposition leader would take the UK "into such bad places."

The NHS is the closest thing that the UK has to a religion and it will no doubt feature heavily in this election. And as Jennings points out, this could prove tricky for Johnson's Conservatives "if they end up getting sucked into winter NHS crisis" in the middle of a campaign.

Also in Corbyn's favour this time is the fact that he has a very clear path to office, something no one believed could happen in 2017.

If the UK ends up with another hung parliament and Corbyn is the most successful loser, he could credibly make the case he should head some kind of coalition or minority government. The price for doing so would almost certainly be a commitment to some kind of second Brexit referendum.

This would be terrible for the Conservative party. Right now, the party is reluctantly united around Johnson and his Brexit deal. However, if another referendum were to happen, the party would tie itself in knots over exactly what position to back.

Losing Brexit isn't the only thing spooking Conservatives. Corbyn is, in the eyes of Conservatives, a danger to the nation. They believe he is a threat to national security and that his hard-left agenda would wreck prosperity. In the words of a senior government advisor, "people need to know that Corbyn will take their houses, nationalise their jobs and tax them to death. It should terrify anyone involved in this election. There is a real chance that Corbyn could end up in Downing Street."

A Labour spokesperson refuted this, telling CNN that "Labour will put wealth and power in the hands of the many. Boris Johnson's Conservatives, who think they're born to rule, will only look after the privileged few."

Conservatives also fear that Corbyn's dream of stepping inside Downing Street would come at the cost of getting Scottish nationalists on his side. And the price for this would be giving Scotland another Independence referendum. After three years of Brexit chaos, many Scots now believe that the best path is to go independent and rejoin the EU as a full member state. Experts are split on exactly how that vote would go, but for a party formally known as the Conservative and Unionist Party, it's a terrifying prospect that would forever be blamed on Johnson's administration.

Conservative aides are privately concerned that Johnson has not learned the lessons of 2017 and are worried that his hubris will come to bite them. Talking to senior staffers, their most optimistic predictions are that Johnson will win a small majority and get his Brexit deal through Parliament, only for the party to fall apart over the UK's future relationship with Europe. They point out that even if the deal passes, the UK only has 11 months to get the rest of Brexit sorted. And that will result in extending the transition period.

They are also well aware of the real prospect that the election will result in another hung parliament. That effectively kills the Johnson government, something which has not gone unnoticed in Brussels. EU officials are pleased that an election is happening, hoping that it will finally provide some answers to this seemingly impossible question. But they also think that a hung Parliament is the most likely outcome. "To be honest, there is already chatter about the next extension," an EU official told CNN.

If that happens, the deadlock continues. "If there's no majority then there's a question of whether he (Johnson) resigns. I am not even sure we get to a second referendum ... before we even get there we could be looking at a February election," says Professor Will Jennings.

Johnson's Brexit gamble was a table-flip moment. It's the last option for a Prime Minister who's been on the back foot since day one. But in flipping that table over, he could soon discover that there was far more on it than Brexit. Johnson might live to regret wanting to have a crack at this leadership business.

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2019-11-02 04:02:18Z
52780424623658

Trump: impeachment a move to 'nullify' 2016 and 'undermine' re-election - NBC News

President Donald Trump went after Democrats on Friday, claiming that the House impeachment inquiry was part of a planned attempt to illegitimately remove the president from office, attacking his 2020 rivals in his first campaign rally since the House voted to formalize the impeachment inquiry.

“First they engineered the Russia hoax,” Trump said, “then the Mueller witch hunt,” he continued, speaking to a crowd of supporters at the BancorpSouth Arena in Tupelo, Mississippi. “That didn't work out too well, did it? That fizzled.”

“And now corrupt politicians Nancy Pelosi and ‘Shifty’ Adam Schiff and the media are continuing with the deranged impeachment witch hunt,” Trump said, again mocking Rep. Adam Schiff’s last name.

Trump called this week’s House vote a move to “nullify” the votes of millions of Americans in the 2016 election and claimed that the Democratic Party had been plotting to “overthrow the election” results since the moment he was elected.

“I never thought I would be involved with the word 'impeachment,'” Trump said, saying he considered it “a dirty word.”

Nov. 1, 201904:39

While the House vote on Thursday was largely split on party lines, some members of the president’s party, including Senate Republicans, have been slow to come to the president's full defense.

Let our news meet your inbox. The news and stories that matters, delivered weekday mornings.

But Trump assured his supporters on Friday night that “the Republicans are really strong, the strongest I’ve ever seen them, the most unified I have ever seen them.”

The impeachment inquiry, he said, was not only a means to discredit his 2016 victory, but an effort to keep him from winning re-election: “It’s all a phony deal, this whole impeachment scam to try and undermine the 2020 election and to de-legitimatize one of the greatest elections,” he said.

“They know they can’t win, so let’s try and impeach him,” Trump added. “We got to impeach him 'cause we can beat him.”

Addressing 2020 Democratic candidates, Trump ridiculed rivals, saying he had a new nickname for Vice President Joe Biden — "very slow, sleepy Joe” — and continuing to attack Biden's son, Hunter, over discredited claims of improper business relationships with a Ukrainian energy company.

Trump also went after former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, who just hours before announced he was dropping out of the 2020 Democratic primary. Trump and O’Rourke had been critical of each other on the campaign trail, and even held competing rallies in El Paso, Texas, O’Rourke’s hometown, earlier this year.

“Beto, did you hear? Ah, that poor bastard. Poor, pathetic guy,” Trump said. “Anybody who says they're born for this, they're in trouble,” Trump said, mocking an interview O’Rourke did with Vanity Fair.

Trump also accused President Barack Obama of working harder than Hillary Clinton to beat him, stating it is the “only time I’ve seen him work hard.” He added that Democrats tried to take him down with with “the lying and the spying and the leaking” but “we are kicking their ass.”

Trump continued to attack the former president, lamenting that he did not receive as much positive coverage after he announced the death of Islamic State militant group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as Obama did after the death of Bin Laden.

“I didn't do it for the story, I did it 'cause it was the right thing to do,” Trump said. “Conan, the dog, got more publicity than me,” he added, promising that the dog would be visiting the White House in the coming weeks.

Trump stopped in Mississippi as part of a last-minute push in several competitive gubernatorial races in deep red states before they vote next week. The president is expected to visit Kentucky on Monday to aid incumbent GOP Gov. Matt Bevin, and then to Louisiana for a second time to help Eddie Rispone unseat the current governor in a runoff election.

While Mississippi should be a shoo-in for Republicans, this year’s race is proving competitive, with Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves running against state Attorney General Jim Hood, who has served in that post since 2004 and is the only statewide elected Democrat.

While Trump’s political fate isn’t tied to what happens in either of those races, he is looking to get wins on the board that he can take credit for — showing he is still a force in the Republican Party despite the negative headlines surrounding impeachment.

“You know, I can’t believe that this is a competitive race,” Trump told the rally crowd Friday night. “It’s embarrassing.”

The president took credit for forcing the runoff in the Louisiana race after holding a rally on the eve of the state’s primary, where Democratic candidate Edwards fell short of claiming the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid the contest.

Lauren Egan

Lauren Egan reports for NBC News, based in Washington.

Shannon Pettypiece contributed.

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2019-11-02 03:58:00Z
52780423716010

Five men acquitted of rape because unconscious teenage victim didn't fight back - CNN

Under Spanish law, a sexual attack can only be classified as an assault or rape if the perpetrator uses violence or intimidation. Because the 14-year-old victim was unconscious, the five were convicted of a lesser charge of sexual abuse.

The case renewed pressure on the government to reform the law and specify that any sexual act without consent is an assault.

The Barcelona court sentenced the five men to 10 to 12 years in prison, despite the prosecution arguing they should be charged with assault.

The attack happened at a party in Manresa, a town northwest of Barcelona, in 2016. The court heard that the group was partying in an abandoned factory, when the victim consumed "alcohol and drugs" and became unconscious.

The men then took turns performing sexual acts on the teenager, according to a statement published on the court's website.

"The sexual attack on the victim was extremely intense and especially denigrating, and in addition, it was produced on a minor who was in a helpless situation," the court said in the press release.

However, the court said the victim was "in a state of unconsciousness ... without being able to determine and accept or oppose the sexual relations maintained with defendants, who could perform sexual acts without using any type of violence or intimidation."

The court said the attack had to be classified as sexual abuse because "it has been proven that the victim, while the events took place ... was in a state of unconsciousness," according to a statement published on its website.

The court also awarded the victim 12,000 euros ($13,400) in damages. Two more men attending the party were acquitted of all crimes, the court said.

Echoes of 'Wolf Pack' case

The hearing sparked protests across Spain reminiscent of the response to a similar case in which five men, dubbed "the Wolf Pack," were originally acquitted of rape and convicted of abuse. Spain's Supreme Court overturned the decision in June, after a year of demonstrations, sentencing the men to 15 years in prison for rape.

The case shocked the nation and prompted widespread outrage, which was ultimately diverted towards Spain's judicial system.

However, while the "Wolf Pack" controversy stemmed from the interpretation of the law and what constitutes intimidation, the Manresa attack put a spotlight on what activists said is a flaw in the Spanish legal system.

The court in Barcelona said in the press release that the attack "cannot fit into any other criminal typology" because the attackers "could perform sexual acts without using any type of violence or intimidation."

That explanation has sparked more calls for the law to be changed. Protesters gathered in front of the court during the months-long hearing, holding placards that read: "It's rape."

The Spanish Association of Women Judges has previously called for a reform of the law, urging the government to act quickly.

Lucia Avilés, a judge and a member of the association, said on Twitter on Friday that the issue has not yet been addressed, despite the fact that Spain has signed and ratified the Istanbul Convention on Violence Against Women, which stipulates that sex without consent is rape.

CNN's Laura Perez Maestro contributed reporting.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/01/europe/barcelona-rape-sexual-assault-intl/index.html

2019-11-01 13:17:23Z
52780424193484

North Korea, emboldened by Trump peril and Chinese allies, tries harder line - Reuters

SEOUL (Reuters) - Successful sanctions evasion, economic lifelines from China and U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment woes may be among the factors that have emboldened North Korea in nuclear negotiations, analysts and officials say.

Both Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continue to play up the personal rapport they say they developed during three face-to-face meetings. But North Korea has said in recent days that it is losing patience, giving the United States until the end of the year to change its negotiating stance.

North Korea has tested the limits of engagement with a string of missile launches, including two fired on Thursday, and experts warn that the lack of a concrete arms control agreement has allowed the country to continue producing nuclear weapons.

The missile tests have practical value for the North Korean military’s efforts to modernize its arsenal. But they also underscore Pyongyang’s increasingly belligerent position in the face of what it sees as an inflexible and hostile United States.

In a best-case scenario, Thursday’s launch was an attempt to make the December deadline feel more urgent to the U.S., said Andray Abrahamian, a visiting scholar with George Mason University Korea.

“Still, I think that Pyongyang has concluded they can do without a deal if they must,” he said. “The sad thing is I think that will lock in the current state of affairs, with its downsides for all stakeholders, for years to come.”

‘NOT SO PROMISING’

Trump’s reelection battle and the impeachment inquiry against him may have led Kim to overestimate North Korea’s leverage, said one diplomat in Seoul, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations.

“It looks like Kim has a serious delusion that he is capable of helping or ruining Trump’s reelection, but no one in Pyongyang can stand up to the unerring leader and say he’s mistaken – you don’t want to be dead,” the diplomat told Reuters. “And Trump is all Kim has. In order to denuclearize, Kim needs confidence that Trump will be reelected.”

The Americans, meanwhile, came into working-level talks on Oct. 5 in Stockholm with the position that North Korea must completely and irreversibly dismantle its nuclear program, and pushed for a moratorium on weapons tests as part of a first step, the diplomat said.

Although some media reports said the United States planned to propose temporarily lifting sanctions on coal and textile exports, the diplomat said the talks in Stockholm did not get into details.

“The U.S. can’t take the risk of easing sanctions first, having already given a lot of gifts to Kim without substantial progress on denuclearization, including summits,” the diplomat said. “Sanctions are basically all they have to press North Korea.”

When American negotiators tried to set a time for another round of talks, North Korean officials were uncooperative, the diplomat said.

“The prospects are not so promising,” the diplomat added.

ECONOMIC LIFELINES

Although United Nations sanctions remain in place, some trade with China appears to have increased, and political relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have improved dramatically.

Kim and China’s president, Xi Jinping, have met several times, and the two countries exchange delegations of government officials.

A huge influx of Chinese tourists over the past year appears to be a major source of cash for the North Korean government, according to research by Korea Risk Group, which monitors North Korea.

Korea Risk Group chief executive Chad O’Carroll estimates as many as 350,000 Chinese tourists have visited this year, potentially netting the North Korean authorities up to $175 million.

That’s more than North Korea was making from the Kaesong Industrial Complex - jointly operated with South Korea before it was shuttered in 2016 - and is almost certainly part of why Kim is showing less interest in U.S. proposals, O’Carroll said.

The United States and South Korea suggested tourism, rather than resuming the Kaesong operation, as a potential concession to the North after the failed second summit between Trump and Kim in Hanoi in February, the Seoul-based diplomat said.

“That’s based on the consensus that any sanctions relief should be immediately reversible, but once the 120-plus factories are put back in, it’s difficult to shut it down and pull them out again,” the diplomat said.

The United Nations, meanwhile, has reported that North Korea is successfully evading many of the sanctions, and that the government may have stolen as much as $2 billion through cyber attacks.

“Stockholm suggests Pyongyang is also fine with their ‘Chinese backstop’, i.e. whatever agreement they have on lax sanctions enforcement,” Abrahamian said. “I worry that instead of trying to get a deal, they think Trump will be more desperate for a win than he actually is and will miss the window.”

INTERNAL DEBATE

Trump and Kim’s second meeting abruptly fell apart when both sides refused to budge, with North Korea demanding wide-ranging sanctions relief and the Americans insisting on concrete disarmament steps.

“It’s very clear that the failure of Hanoi triggered a debate inside North Korea about whether Kim’s path - moving down the road to denuclearization - was the right way to go,” said Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington.

For now, North Korea seems inclined to avoid engaging further with the United States or South Korea until they make more concessions, Wit said.

FILE PHOTO: People watch a TV broadcast showing a file footage for a news report on North Korea firing two projectiles, possibly missiles, into the sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan, in Seoul, South Korea, October 31, 2019. REUTERS/Heo Ran/File Photo

Other analysts are skeptical that Kim will ever give up his hard-won nuclear weapons, but say the opportunity for even a limited arms control deal may be slipping away.

“North Korea appears to be interested only in a deal under its terms to the exact letter,” said Duyeon Kim, with the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.

“Pyongyang is able to demand more, be tougher, and raise the bar because its confidence comes from  qualitative and quantitative advancements in its nuclear weapons,” Kim said.

Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-analysis/north-korea-emboldened-by-trump-peril-and-chinese-allies-tries-harder-line-idUSKBN1XB3FC

2019-11-01 13:16:52Z
CBMikwFodHRwczovL3d3dy5yZXV0ZXJzLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlL3VzLW5vcnRoa29yZWEtdXNhLWFuYWx5c2lzL25vcnRoLWtvcmVhLWVtYm9sZGVuZWQtYnktdHJ1bXAtcGVyaWwtYW5kLWNoaW5lc2UtYWxsaWVzLXRyaWVzLWhhcmRlci1saW5lLWlkVVNLQk4xWEIzRkPSATRodHRwczovL21vYmlsZS5yZXV0ZXJzLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlL2FtcC9pZFVTS0JOMVhCM0ZD

Five men acquitted of rape because unconscious teenage victim didn't fight back - CNN International

Under Spanish law, a sexual attack can only be classified as an assault or rape if the perpetrator uses violence or intimidation. Because the 14-year-old victim was unconscious, the five were convicted of a lesser charge of sexual abuse.

The case renewed pressure on the government to reform the law and specify that any sexual act without consent is an assault.

The Barcelona court sentenced the five men to 10 to 12 years in prison, despite the prosecution arguing they should be charged with assault.

The attack happened at a party in Manresa, a town northwest of Barcelona, in 2016. The court heard that the group was partying in an abandoned factory, when the victim consumed "alcohol and drugs" and became unconscious.

The men then took turns performing sexual acts on the teenager, according to a statement published on the court's website.

"The sexual attack on the victim was extremely intense and especially denigrating, and in addition, it was produced on a minor who was in a helpless situation," the court said in the press release.

However, the court said the victim was "in a state of unconsciousness ... without being able to determine and accept or oppose the sexual relations maintained with defendants, who could perform sexual acts without using any type of violence or intimidation."

The court said the attack had to be classified as sexual abuse because "it has been proven that the victim, while the events took place ... was in a state of unconsciousness," according to a statement published on its website.

The court also awarded the victim 12,000 euros ($13,400) in damages. Two more men attending the party were acquitted of all crimes, the court said.

Echoes of 'Wolf Pack' case

The hearing sparked protests across Spain reminiscent of the response to a similar case in which five men, dubbed "the Wolf Pack," were originally acquitted of rape and convicted of abuse. Spain's Supreme Court overturned the decision in June, after a year of demonstrations, sentencing the men to 15 years in prison for rape.

The case shocked the nation and prompted widespread outrage, which was ultimately diverted towards Spain's judicial system.

However, while the "Wolf Pack" controversy stemmed from the interpretation of the law and what constitutes intimidation, the Manresa attack put a spotlight on what activists said is a flaw in the Spanish legal system.

The court in Barcelona said in the press release that the attack "cannot fit into any other criminal typology" because the attackers "could perform sexual acts without using any type of violence or intimidation."

That explanation has sparked more calls for the law to be changed. Protesters gathered in front of the court during the months-long hearing, holding placards that read: "It's rape."

The Spanish Association of Women Judges has previously called for a reform of the law, urging the government to act quickly.

Lucia Avilés, a judge and a member of the association, said on Twitter on Friday that the issue has not yet been addressed, despite the fact that Spain has signed and ratified the Istanbul Convention on Violence Against Women, which stipulates that sex without consent is rape.

CNN's Laura Perez Maestro contributed reporting.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/01/europe/barcelona-rape-sexual-assault-intl/index.html

2019-11-01 11:47:00Z
52780424193484

North Korea, emboldened by Trump peril and Chinese allies, tries harder line - Reuters

SEOUL (Reuters) - Successful sanctions evasion, economic lifelines from China and U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment woes may be among the factors that have emboldened North Korea in nuclear negotiations, analysts and officials say.

Both Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continue to play up the personal rapport they say they developed during three face-to-face meetings. But North Korea has said in recent days that it is losing patience, giving the United States until the end of the year to change its negotiating stance.

North Korea has tested the limits of engagement with a string of missile launches, including two fired on Thursday, and experts warn that the lack of a concrete arms control agreement has allowed the country to continue producing nuclear weapons.

The missile tests have practical value for the North Korean military’s efforts to modernize its arsenal. But they also underscore Pyongyang’s increasingly belligerent position in the face of what it sees as an inflexible and hostile United States.

In a best-case scenario, Thursday’s launch was an attempt to make the December deadline feel more urgent to the U.S., said Andray Abrahamian, a visiting scholar with George Mason University Korea.

“Still, I think that Pyongyang has concluded they can do without a deal if they must,” he said. “The sad thing is I think that will lock in the current state of affairs, with its downsides for all stakeholders, for years to come.”

‘NOT SO PROMISING’

Trump’s reelection battle and the impeachment inquiry against him may have led Kim to overestimate North Korea’s leverage, said one diplomat in Seoul, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations.

“It looks like Kim has a serious delusion that he is capable of helping or ruining Trump’s reelection, but no one in Pyongyang can stand up to the unerring leader and say he’s mistaken – you don’t want to be dead,” the diplomat told Reuters. “And Trump is all Kim has. In order to denuclearize, Kim needs confidence that Trump will be reelected.”

The Americans, meanwhile, came into working-level talks on Oct. 5 in Stockholm with the position that North Korea must completely and irreversibly dismantle its nuclear program, and pushed for a moratorium on weapons tests as part of a first step, the diplomat said.

Although some media reports said the United States planned to propose temporarily lifting sanctions on coal and textile exports, the diplomat said the talks in Stockholm did not get into details.

“The U.S. can’t take the risk of easing sanctions first, having already given a lot of gifts to Kim without substantial progress on denuclearization, including summits,” the diplomat said. “Sanctions are basically all they have to press North Korea.”

When American negotiators tried to set a time for another round of talks, North Korean officials were uncooperative, the diplomat said.

“The prospects are not so promising,” the diplomat added.

ECONOMIC LIFELINES

Although United Nations sanctions remain in place, some trade with China appears to have increased, and political relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have improved dramatically.

Kim and China’s president, Xi Jinping, have met several times, and the two countries exchange delegations of government officials.

A huge influx of Chinese tourists over the past year appears to be a major source of cash for the North Korean government, according to research by Korea Risk Group, which monitors North Korea.

Korea Risk Group chief executive Chad O’Carroll estimates as many as 350,000 Chinese tourists have visited this year, potentially netting the North Korean authorities up to $175 million.

That’s more than North Korea was making from the Kaesong Industrial Complex - jointly operated with South Korea before it was shuttered in 2016 - and is almost certainly part of why Kim is showing less interest in U.S. proposals, O’Carroll said.

The United States and South Korea suggested tourism, rather than resuming the Kaesong operation, as a potential concession to the North after the failed second summit between Trump and Kim in Hanoi in February, the Seoul-based diplomat said.

“That’s based on the consensus that any sanctions relief should be immediately reversible, but once the 120-plus factories are put back in, it’s difficult to shut it down and pull them out again,” the diplomat said.

The United Nations, meanwhile, has reported that North Korea is successfully evading many of the sanctions, and that the government may have stolen as much as $2 billion through cyber attacks.

“Stockholm suggests Pyongyang is also fine with their ‘Chinese backstop’, i.e. whatever agreement they have on lax sanctions enforcement,” Abrahamian said. “I worry that instead of trying to get a deal, they think Trump will be more desperate for a win than he actually is and will miss the window.”

INTERNAL DEBATE

Trump and Kim’s second meeting abruptly fell apart when both sides refused to budge, with North Korea demanding wide-ranging sanctions relief and the Americans insisting on concrete disarmament steps.

“It’s very clear that the failure of Hanoi triggered a debate inside North Korea about whether Kim’s path - moving down the road to denuclearization - was the right way to go,” said Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington.

For now, North Korea seems inclined to avoid engaging further with the United States or South Korea until they make more concessions, Wit said.

FILE PHOTO: People watch a TV broadcast showing a file footage for a news report on North Korea firing two projectiles, possibly missiles, into the sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan, in Seoul, South Korea, October 31, 2019. REUTERS/Heo Ran/File Photo

Other analysts are skeptical that Kim will ever give up his hard-won nuclear weapons, but say the opportunity for even a limited arms control deal may be slipping away.

“North Korea appears to be interested only in a deal under its terms to the exact letter,” said Duyeon Kim, with the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.

“Pyongyang is able to demand more, be tougher, and raise the bar because its confidence comes from  qualitative and quantitative advancements in its nuclear weapons,” Kim said.

Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-analysis/north-korea-emboldened-by-trump-peril-and-chinese-allies-tries-harder-line-idUSKBN1XB3FC

2019-11-01 12:40:05Z
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