Echoes of 'Wolf Pack' case
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/01/europe/barcelona-rape-sexual-assault-intl/index.html
2019-11-01 11:47:00Z
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CNN's Laura Perez Maestro contributed reporting.
SEOUL (Reuters) - Successful sanctions evasion, economic lifelines from China and U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment woes may be among the factors that have emboldened North Korea in nuclear negotiations, analysts and officials say.
Both Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continue to play up the personal rapport they say they developed during three face-to-face meetings. But North Korea has said in recent days that it is losing patience, giving the United States until the end of the year to change its negotiating stance.
North Korea has tested the limits of engagement with a string of missile launches, including two fired on Thursday, and experts warn that the lack of a concrete arms control agreement has allowed the country to continue producing nuclear weapons.
The missile tests have practical value for the North Korean military’s efforts to modernize its arsenal. But they also underscore Pyongyang’s increasingly belligerent position in the face of what it sees as an inflexible and hostile United States.
In a best-case scenario, Thursday’s launch was an attempt to make the December deadline feel more urgent to the U.S., said Andray Abrahamian, a visiting scholar with George Mason University Korea.
“Still, I think that Pyongyang has concluded they can do without a deal if they must,” he said. “The sad thing is I think that will lock in the current state of affairs, with its downsides for all stakeholders, for years to come.”
Trump’s reelection battle and the impeachment inquiry against him may have led Kim to overestimate North Korea’s leverage, said one diplomat in Seoul, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations.
“It looks like Kim has a serious delusion that he is capable of helping or ruining Trump’s reelection, but no one in Pyongyang can stand up to the unerring leader and say he’s mistaken – you don’t want to be dead,” the diplomat told Reuters. “And Trump is all Kim has. In order to denuclearize, Kim needs confidence that Trump will be reelected.”
The Americans, meanwhile, came into working-level talks on Oct. 5 in Stockholm with the position that North Korea must completely and irreversibly dismantle its nuclear program, and pushed for a moratorium on weapons tests as part of a first step, the diplomat said.
Although some media reports said the United States planned to propose temporarily lifting sanctions on coal and textile exports, the diplomat said the talks in Stockholm did not get into details.
“The U.S. can’t take the risk of easing sanctions first, having already given a lot of gifts to Kim without substantial progress on denuclearization, including summits,” the diplomat said. “Sanctions are basically all they have to press North Korea.”
When American negotiators tried to set a time for another round of talks, North Korean officials were uncooperative, the diplomat said.
“The prospects are not so promising,” the diplomat added.
Although United Nations sanctions remain in place, some trade with China appears to have increased, and political relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have improved dramatically.
Kim and China’s president, Xi Jinping, have met several times, and the two countries exchange delegations of government officials.
A huge influx of Chinese tourists over the past year appears to be a major source of cash for the North Korean government, according to research by Korea Risk Group, which monitors North Korea.
Korea Risk Group chief executive Chad O’Carroll estimates as many as 350,000 Chinese tourists have visited this year, potentially netting the North Korean authorities up to $175 million.
That’s more than North Korea was making from the Kaesong Industrial Complex - jointly operated with South Korea before it was shuttered in 2016 - and is almost certainly part of why Kim is showing less interest in U.S. proposals, O’Carroll said.
The United States and South Korea suggested tourism, rather than resuming the Kaesong operation, as a potential concession to the North after the failed second summit between Trump and Kim in Hanoi in February, the Seoul-based diplomat said.
“That’s based on the consensus that any sanctions relief should be immediately reversible, but once the 120-plus factories are put back in, it’s difficult to shut it down and pull them out again,” the diplomat said.
The United Nations, meanwhile, has reported that North Korea is successfully evading many of the sanctions, and that the government may have stolen as much as $2 billion through cyber attacks.
“Stockholm suggests Pyongyang is also fine with their ‘Chinese backstop’, i.e. whatever agreement they have on lax sanctions enforcement,” Abrahamian said. “I worry that instead of trying to get a deal, they think Trump will be more desperate for a win than he actually is and will miss the window.”
Trump and Kim’s second meeting abruptly fell apart when both sides refused to budge, with North Korea demanding wide-ranging sanctions relief and the Americans insisting on concrete disarmament steps.
“It’s very clear that the failure of Hanoi triggered a debate inside North Korea about whether Kim’s path - moving down the road to denuclearization - was the right way to go,” said Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington.
For now, North Korea seems inclined to avoid engaging further with the United States or South Korea until they make more concessions, Wit said.
Other analysts are skeptical that Kim will ever give up his hard-won nuclear weapons, but say the opportunity for even a limited arms control deal may be slipping away.
“North Korea appears to be interested only in a deal under its terms to the exact letter,” said Duyeon Kim, with the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.
“Pyongyang is able to demand more, be tougher, and raise the bar because its confidence comes from qualitative and quantitative advancements in its nuclear weapons,” Kim said.
Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle

Nigel Farage has called on Boris Johnson to ditch his Brexit deal and "build a Leave alliance".
At the launch of the Brexit Party's election campaign, the leader said bringing the parties together was "the only way" forward.
But he warned Mr Johnson that if he turned down his offer, the party would field candidates in "every single seat" in England, Scotland and Wales.
The Conservatives have consistently ruled out a formal pact with the party.
A Tory source told the BBC: "A vote for Farage risks letting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street via the back door. It will not get Brexit done and it will create another gridlocked Parliament that doesn't work."
It comes after President Donald Trump said Mr Farage and Boris Johnson should team up as "an unstoppable force".
Recent opinion polls have shown the Conservatives with a double-digit lead over Labour.
But some Tories fear that Mr Farage's candidates could split the pro-Brexit vote and prevent their party from winning a majority in 12 December poll.
BBC Political Correspondent Alex Forsyth said the risk for the Brexit Party was that they could help Labour win seats by taking votes away from Conservative candidates, and that could lead to another EU referendum under a Jeremy Corbyn-led government.
Mr Farage has been critical of Mr Johnson's failure to deliver on his promise that the UK would leave by Halloween.
He used the launch to condemn the PM's deal, urging him to "drop [it] because it is not Brexit".
Instead, Mr Farage urged him to pursue a free trade agreement with the EU - similar to the deal the bloc has with Canada - and to impose a new deadline of 1 July 2020 to get it signed off.
If an agreement was not done by then, the UK should leave the EU without a deal and move to World Trade Organisation trading rules.
"I would view that as totally reasonable," he said. "That really would be Brexit."
But Mr Farage said if Mr Johnson did not pursue the route, the Brexit Party would contest every seat in the country - with 500 candidates ready to sign the forms to stand on Monday.
"The Brexit Party would be the only party standing at these elections that actually represents Brexit," he said.
The party leader also attacked Labour for a "complete and utter betrayal on Brexit" - and said his party would target Labour seats in the Midlands and North of England.
He said Labour's plan to renegotiate a deal then put it to a referendum was offering a choice of "remain or effectively remain".
Mr Farage said there were five million Labour voters who had supported Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, meaning his party "posed a very major problem" for Jeremy Corbyn.
"So many Labour Leave seats are represented by Remain members of Parliament," he said. "We view those constituencies around the country among our top targets."
He ridiculed the reported Conservative plan to target "Workington man" - Leave-supporting traditional Labour voters in northern towns - saying Tories needed get out of London more.
On the other side of the Brexit debate, Remain-supporting parties have been negotiating electoral pacts in certain constituencies.
The potential agreements would see the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru stand aside for each other to ensure the election of as many MPs who back a second Brexit referendum as possible.
Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley said it was "no secret" that the his party was "talking to the Lib Dems and Plaid" but "nothing has been finalised".
LONDON (Reuters) - As Britain’s “Brexit election” campaign swings into action, it may not be the country’s exit from the European Union which takes centre stage but another national obsession - the health service.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson greets and speaks to nurses at National Institute for Health Research at the Cambridge Clinical Research Facility, in Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge, Britain October 31, 2019. Alastair Grant/Pool via REUTERS
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has cast the Dec. 12 election as necessary to break the deadlock in parliament over Brexit, telling voters that only by returning his Conservatives with a majority can the country finally quit the European Union.
But many supporters of the opposition Labour Party, whose ambiguous position over Brexit has alienated some voters, believe the best chance of winning power is to focus the debate on other issues.
The state-run National Health Service (NHS), which has provided free at the point of use healthcare for more than 70 years, is a hugely emotive issue. Opinion polls consistently show voters cite it as the second biggest issue after Brexit.
Struggling under the pressure of record demand due to a growing and ageing population, as well as cut backs to social care services, the NHS has warned it faces a shortfall in funding despite government promises of extra money.
Despite its cherished status, complaints about long waiting times for consultations and operations, crumbling hospitals and staff shortages are a regular feature of public discourse.
Labour plan to make the NHS a big part of their campaign.
“This government has put our NHS into crisis, and this election is a once-in-a-generation chance to end privatisation in our NHS, give it the funding it needs,” Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Wednesday, attacking Johnson in parliament.
Corbyn’s central charge: the NHS is at risk of being sold off to American corporations in any post-Brexit trade deal Johnson’s government does with U.S. President Donald Trump.
“Labour won’t let Donald Trump get his hands on our National Health Service,” Corbyn said to cheers from the audience at his campaign launch in southwest London on Thursday.
“Quite bluntly, it’s not for sale,” he said, as the crowd rose to its feet and chanted: “Not for sale, not for sale.”
Johnson has repeatedly said the NHS would not be on the table in any trade talks but opposition lawmakers say they do not trust him.
Trump, who said during a visit to Britain in June that everything including health would be on the table in trade talks but then backtracked and said health would not be, told LBC radio that Corbyn’s claim was ridiculous and he did not know where it came from.
Asked about whether the health service would be up for grabs in trade talks, Trump said: “No, not at all, we wouldn’t even be involved in that, no.”
“No. It’s not for us to have anything to do with your healthcare system,” he said. “No, we’re just talking about trade.”
The face of a “Leave” campaign which promised to spend the money Britain sends to the EU on the NHS instead, Johnson’s message to voters is he would deliver Brexit so Britain can move on to focus on priorities such as health, education and policing.
“BackBoris for more NHS funding so that you and your family get the care you need,” the Conservatives said on Twitter, as Johnson visited a hospital on his first day of campaigning. He has done at least 9 hospital visits since taking office in July.
During one such visit he was confronted by a Labour activist and father of a sick child, who said the care his baby daughter had received had not been acceptable and that the health service had been destroyed by the Conservatives.
The NHS led two newspaper front pages on Thursday, with the Labour-supporting Daily Mirror splashing: “Election warning: Boris and Trump plot NHS sell-off”, while the pro-Conservative Daily Mail read: “Poll: Boris more trusted than Corbyn on NHS”.
Created by a Labour government in 1948, the NHS is one of the biggest employers in the world and in 2019-20 is due to account for 166 billion pounds ($215.04 billion), or around 20 percent, of Britain’s annual public spending.
It has traditionally been strong ground for Labour, with polls usually showing them as more trusted on the NHS. A December election, Britain’s first winter vote since 1923, could play to that strength.
Pressure on the NHS increases during the winter months, adding to public concern and fuelling newspaper headlines about the annual “NHS winter crisis”.
“Most years you see a spike in the issues tracker for the NHS in the winter months as you get stories about winter crisis, waiting times going up,” said Chris Curtis, Political Research Manager at polling firm YouGov.
YouGov’s latest research showed 32 percent of voters viewed Labour as best able to handle the NHS, versus 26 percent for the Conservatives. In contrast, just 9 percent believed Labour was best on Brexit, compared to 24 percent for the Conservatives.
“It is much better for Labour to be focusing on the NHS than it is for them to be focusing on Brexit,” said Curtis. “It is very likely that that could end up helping Labour in this campaign.”
Many opinion polls give Johnson’s Conservatives a double digit lead over Labour, but it is early days in a six-week campaign.
At the last snap election, in 2017, Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May saw her party’s large poll lead all but evaporate during the campaign, ultimately losing her small majority in parliament on election day.
($1 = 0.77 pounds)
Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Angus MacSwan
SEOUL (Reuters) - Successful sanctions evasion, economic lifelines from China and U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment woes may be among the factors that have emboldened North Korea in nuclear negotiations, analysts and officials say.
Both Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continue to play up the personal rapport they say they developed during three face-to-face meetings. But North Korea has said in recent days that it is losing patience, giving the United States until the end of the year to change its negotiating stance.
North Korea has tested the limits of engagement with a string of missile launches, including two fired on Thursday, and experts warn that the lack of a concrete arms control agreement has allowed the country to continue producing nuclear weapons.
The missile tests have practical value for the North Korean military’s efforts to modernize its arsenal. But they also underscore Pyongyang’s increasingly belligerent position in the face of what it sees as an inflexible and hostile United States.
In a best-case scenario, Thursday’s launch was an attempt to make the December deadline feel more urgent to the U.S., said Andray Abrahamian, a visiting scholar with George Mason University Korea.
“Still, I think that Pyongyang has concluded they can do without a deal if they must,” he said. “The sad thing is I think that will lock in the current state of affairs, with its downsides for all stakeholders, for years to come.”
Trump’s reelection battle and the impeachment inquiry against him may have led Kim to overestimate North Korea’s leverage, said one diplomat in Seoul, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations.
“It looks like Kim has a serious delusion that he is capable of helping or ruining Trump’s reelection, but no one in Pyongyang can stand up to the unerring leader and say he’s mistaken – you don’t want to be dead,” the diplomat told Reuters. “And Trump is all Kim has. In order to denuclearize, Kim needs confidence that Trump will be reelected.”
The Americans, meanwhile, came into working-level talks on Oct. 5 in Stockholm with the position that North Korea must completely and irreversibly dismantle its nuclear program, and pushed for a moratorium on weapons tests as part of a first step, the diplomat said.
Although some media reports said the United States planned to propose temporarily lifting sanctions on coal and textile exports, the diplomat said the talks in Stockholm did not get into details.
“The U.S. can’t take the risk of easing sanctions first, having already given a lot of gifts to Kim without substantial progress on denuclearization, including summits,” the diplomat said. “Sanctions are basically all they have to press North Korea.”
When American negotiators tried to set a time for another round of talks, North Korean officials were uncooperative, the diplomat said.
“The prospects are not so promising,” the diplomat added.
Although United Nations sanctions remain in place, some trade with China appears to have increased, and political relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have improved dramatically.
Kim and China’s president, Xi Jinping, have met several times, and the two countries exchange delegations of government officials.
A huge influx of Chinese tourists over the past year appears to be a major source of cash for the North Korean government, according to research by Korea Risk Group, which monitors North Korea.
Korea Risk Group chief executive Chad O’Carroll estimates as many as 350,000 Chinese tourists have visited this year, potentially netting the North Korean authorities up to $175 million.
That’s more than North Korea was making from the Kaesong Industrial Complex - jointly operated with South Korea before it was shuttered in 2016 - and is almost certainly part of why Kim is showing less interest in U.S. proposals, O’Carroll said.
The United States and South Korea suggested tourism, rather than resuming the Kaesong operation, as a potential concession to the North after the failed second summit between Trump and Kim in Hanoi in February, the Seoul-based diplomat said.
“That’s based on the consensus that any sanctions relief should be immediately reversible, but once the 120-plus factories are put back in, it’s difficult to shut it down and pull them out again,” the diplomat said.
The United Nations, meanwhile, has reported that North Korea is successfully evading many of the sanctions, and that the government may have stolen as much as $2 billion through cyber attacks.
“Stockholm suggests Pyongyang is also fine with their ‘Chinese backstop’, i.e. whatever agreement they have on lax sanctions enforcement,” Abrahamian said. “I worry that instead of trying to get a deal, they think Trump will be more desperate for a win than he actually is and will miss the window.”
Trump and Kim’s second meeting abruptly fell apart when both sides refused to budge, with North Korea demanding wide-ranging sanctions relief and the Americans insisting on concrete disarmament steps.
“It’s very clear that the failure of Hanoi triggered a debate inside North Korea about whether Kim’s path - moving down the road to denuclearization - was the right way to go,” said Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington.
For now, North Korea seems inclined to avoid engaging further with the United States or South Korea until they make more concessions, Wit said.
Other analysts are skeptical that Kim will ever give up his hard-won nuclear weapons, but say the opportunity for even a limited arms control deal may be slipping away.
“North Korea appears to be interested only in a deal under its terms to the exact letter,” said Duyeon Kim, with the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.
“Pyongyang is able to demand more, be tougher, and raise the bar because its confidence comes from qualitative and quantitative advancements in its nuclear weapons,” Kim said.
Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle
LONDON (Reuters) - As Britain’s “Brexit election” campaign swings into action, it may not be the country’s exit from the European Union which takes centre stage but another national obsession - the health service.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson greets and speaks to nurses at National Institute for Health Research at the Cambridge Clinical Research Facility, in Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge, Britain October 31, 2019. Alastair Grant/Pool via REUTERS
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has cast the Dec. 12 election as necessary to break the deadlock in parliament over Brexit, telling voters that only by returning his Conservatives with a majority can the country finally quit the European Union.
But many supporters of the opposition Labour Party, whose ambiguous position over Brexit has alienated some voters, believe the best chance of winning power is to focus the debate on other issues.
The state-run National Health Service (NHS), which has provided free at the point of use healthcare for more than 70 years, is a hugely emotive issue. Opinion polls consistently show voters cite it as the second biggest issue after Brexit.
Struggling under the pressure of record demand due to a growing and ageing population, as well as cut backs to social care services, the NHS has warned it faces a shortfall in funding despite government promises of extra money.
Despite its cherished status, complaints about long waiting times for consultations and operations, crumbling hospitals and staff shortages are a regular feature of public discourse.
Labour plan to make the NHS a big part of their campaign.
“This government has put our NHS into crisis, and this election is a once-in-a-generation chance to end privatisation in our NHS, give it the funding it needs,” Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Wednesday, attacking Johnson in parliament.
Corbyn’s central charge: the NHS is at risk of being sold off to American corporations in any post-Brexit trade deal Johnson’s government does with U.S. President Donald Trump.
“Labour won’t let Donald Trump get his hands on our National Health Service,” Corbyn said to cheers from the audience at his campaign launch in southwest London on Thursday.
“Quite bluntly, it’s not for sale,” he said, as the crowd rose to its feet and chanted: “Not for sale, not for sale.”
Johnson has repeatedly said the NHS would not be on the table in any trade talks but opposition lawmakers say they do not trust him.
Trump, who said during a visit to Britain in June that everything including health would be on the table in trade talks but then backtracked and said health would not be, told LBC radio that Corbyn’s claim was ridiculous and he did not know where it came from.
Asked about whether the health service would be up for grabs in trade talks, Trump said: “No, not at all, we wouldn’t even be involved in that, no.”
“No. It’s not for us to have anything to do with your healthcare system,” he said. “No, we’re just talking about trade.”
The face of a “Leave” campaign which promised to spend the money Britain sends to the EU on the NHS instead, Johnson’s message to voters is he would deliver Brexit so Britain can move on to focus on priorities such as health, education and policing.
“BackBoris for more NHS funding so that you and your family get the care you need,” the Conservatives said on Twitter, as Johnson visited a hospital on his first day of campaigning. He has done at least 9 hospital visits since taking office in July.
During one such visit he was confronted by a Labour activist and father of a sick child, who said the care his baby daughter had received had not been acceptable and that the health service had been destroyed by the Conservatives.
The NHS led two newspaper front pages on Thursday, with the Labour-supporting Daily Mirror splashing: “Election warning: Boris and Trump plot NHS sell-off”, while the pro-Conservative Daily Mail read: “Poll: Boris more trusted than Corbyn on NHS”.
Created by a Labour government in 1948, the NHS is one of the biggest employers in the world and in 2019-20 is due to account for 166 billion pounds ($215.04 billion), or around 20 percent, of Britain’s annual public spending.
It has traditionally been strong ground for Labour, with polls usually showing them as more trusted on the NHS. A December election, Britain’s first winter vote since 1923, could play to that strength.
Pressure on the NHS increases during the winter months, adding to public concern and fuelling newspaper headlines about the annual “NHS winter crisis”.
“Most years you see a spike in the issues tracker for the NHS in the winter months as you get stories about winter crisis, waiting times going up,” said Chris Curtis, Political Research Manager at polling firm YouGov.
YouGov’s latest research showed 32 percent of voters viewed Labour as best able to handle the NHS, versus 26 percent for the Conservatives. In contrast, just 9 percent believed Labour was best on Brexit, compared to 24 percent for the Conservatives.
“It is much better for Labour to be focusing on the NHS than it is for them to be focusing on Brexit,” said Curtis. “It is very likely that that could end up helping Labour in this campaign.”
Many opinion polls give Johnson’s Conservatives a double digit lead over Labour, but it is early days in a six-week campaign.
At the last snap election, in 2017, Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May saw her party’s large poll lead all but evaporate during the campaign, ultimately losing her small majority in parliament on election day.
($1 = 0.77 pounds)
Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Angus MacSwan
