Boris Johnson's Brexit deal faces narrow defeat on Saturday, analysts warn - CNBC

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that he is "very confident" the House of Commons will support his Brexit deal on Saturday, in what is widely expected to be a historic knife-edge vote.

The former London mayor secured a draft Brexit deal with the European Union on Thursday, following successive days of late-night talks and almost three years of tense discussions.

Johnson must now persuade a majority of U.K. lawmakers to support the draft agreement if he is to take Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31 — something he has promised to deliver "do or die, come what may."

Saturday's showdown is likely to be framed as a "new deal or no deal" moment, with the prime minister acutely aware it will be his last chance to get Members of Parliament (MPs) to approve the deal before the Brexit deadline.

However, the parliamentary arithmetic looks daunting for Johnson after he agreed to strike a deal with the world's largest trading bloc without the backing of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

The DUP, which supports Johnson's government on a confidence and supply basis, has said it will be unable to support the deal on Saturday.

The extraordinary session will mark the first time Parliament has convened on a Saturday since 1982, amid the Falklands War.

Sterling, which jumped to five-month highs on Thursday, was trading little changed at $1.2891 during Friday morning deals.

'Real prospect of a humiliating defeat'

"A narrow defeat in Saturday's Commons vote on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal is now our central scenario," Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, said in a research note published Thursday.

Among other issues, the DUP has said it will oppose Johnson's draft deal over concessions made by the U.K. to the EU on customs checks at points of entry into Northern Ireland.

A pedestrian walks up a staircase on the southern bank of the River Thames with Houses of Parliament seen in the background in London on September 2, 2019.

TOLGA AKMEN | AFP | Getty Images

"As things stand, he faces a real prospect of a humiliating defeat because the DUP's 10 MPs are refusing to support his deal," Rahman said.

He added that while Johnson is "gambling" the DUP will drop its opposition to his deal, there was no sign of this happening before Saturday's vote.

That's because "the agreement would deny Unionists a veto when the Northern Ireland Assembly voted every four years on whether the province should remain in the EU's regulatory and customs orbit, with an effective border in the Irish Sea."

In the absence of support from the DUP, it is likely Johnson will need to count on the support of the 21 Conservative MPs he expelled from the party last month as well as some opposition Labour lawmakers.

'It is going to be tight'

"Johnson has a chance, but it is going to be tight," Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, said in a research note published Thursday.

The winning post in the House of Commons is 320, assuming everyone turns up to vote for Saturday's extraordinary session. Seven Sinn Fein MPs do not sit and the Speaker and three deputies do not vote.

Presently, there are 287 voting Conservative MPs, and Johnson will need to limit any rebellion among them. Pickering estimates 283 will back Johnson's new Brexit deal, thus leaving the prime minister needing 37 from outside his own ranks.

The prime minister "can probably count on the 21 MPs whom he kicked out of the parliamentary party in the last two months to back the deal on the basis they are brought back into the party," Pickering said. But, that would leave the prime minister 16 votes short of a majority.

Earlier this year, when Johnson's predecessor Theresa May took her own Brexit deal to MPs — for what turned out to be the third and final time — a total of nine lawmakers (five from Labour and four independents) backed the prime minister.

Pickering said that even if they, and the suspended Conservative MP Charlie Elphicke, now back Johnson's deal, it would still leave him six votes short of a majority.

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2019-10-18 10:07:31Z
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Turkey Syria offensive: Trump likens conflict to playground fight - BBC News

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US President Donald Trump has compared the deadly conflict between Turkish forces and Kurds in north-eastern Syria to a fight between children.

"Like two kids in a lot, you have got to let them fight and then you pull them apart," he told a rally in Texas.

Turkey has agreed to a US request to suspend operations so long as Kurdish fighters leave the border area.

Concern is growing about possible war crimes by Turkey and allied militia since the offensive began on 9 October.

• Turkey's Syria offensive explained in four maps
• Viewpoint: Syria could be beginning of end for Trump

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved against Kurdish forces in Syria after Mr Trump announced he was pulling US forces out of Syria's north-eastern border region with Turkey.

His aim is to push Kurdish militants, which Turkey regards as terrorists, away from northern-most Syria and create a "safe zone" for resettling up to two million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

Between 160,000 and 300,000 people are reported to have fled their homes since the fighting started, and there are fears the Turkish operation may lead to the ethnic cleansing of the local Kurdish population.

What exactly did Trump say?

As well as alienating the Kurds, who were instrumental in defeating the Islamic State group in Syria, Mr Trump has faced withering criticism from Republican allies over his decision to move US troops aside ahead of Turkey's invasion.

Earlier this week an extraordinary letter from Mr Trump to Mr Erdogan telling the Turkish leader not to "be a fool" emerged, with Turkish sources telling the BBC that Mr Erdogan binned the letter.

But on Thursday, in Texas, Mr Trump defended his handling of the crisis.

"It was unconventional what I did," he told his supporters. "I said they're going to have to fight a little while... They fought for a few days and it was pretty vicious."

Has the fighting stopped?

The Turkish-declared pause followed talks in Ankara between Mr Erdogan and Mr Trump's Vice-President, Mike Pence, on Thursday.

All fighting was to halt for five days and the US was to help facilitate the withdrawal of Kurdish-led troops from Turkey's "safe zone" along the border.

However, while the Kurds agreed to cease firing in the area between the border towns of Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, where combat had been fierce, they said that other areas had not been discussed.

Shelling and gunfire could again be heard in Ras al-Ain on Friday morning.

The Turks get what they wanted

The agreement brokered by the Americans does not define a "pause" in Turkish military operations but the US special envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, said it meant no forward movement of troops on the ground, and no military action other than self-defence.

This applies to the swaths of Syrian land the Turks have invaded in the last week, about a quarter of the territory they ultimately want for a safe zone. Already they have forced some of the Kurdish fighters out but there are still pockets of strong resistance.

The Kurdish commander, General Mazloum Kobani, said the rest of his forces would retreat from this zone. But, he added, a ceasefire for other parts of the border would have to be discussed. Syrian soldiers have moved into much of it because the Kurds turned to Damascus for help after their US allies left.

The Syrians and their Russian backers were not at the negotiating table, so how they respond will help determine whether the agreement is sustainable. But for now it has essentially given the Turks what they were trying to achieve with the military operation: a zone on the Syrian side of the border, clear of Kurdish militias, that they control with their armed forces.

The Turks have agreed to make the "pause" permanent if the Kurdish fighters leave, but there is no demand for their soldiers to pull out.

Were war crimes committed?

Nearly 500 people have been killed since the offensive started, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group.

These include 224 members of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and 183 Turkish-backed rebels but also 72 civilians, according to the SOHR.

Amnesty International says it has gathered "damning evidence of war crimes and other violations by Turkish forces and their allies".

It accuses them of carrying out summary executions and attacking civilians indiscriminately.

Hevrin Khalaf, a Kurdish female politician killed on 12 October, was dragged out of her car, beaten and shot dead by Turkish-backed Syrian fighters, Amnesty says.

In other attacks, children were killed by Turkish air strikes or mortars, the human rights group says.

"Turkish military forces and their allies have displayed an utterly callous disregard for civilian lives, launching unlawful deadly attacks in residential areas that have killed and injured civilians," said Kumi Naidoo, Amnesty's secretary general.

A spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights warned earlier that summary executions were "serious violations" of international humanitarian law and could "amount to a war crime".

Turkish-backed fighters have denied responsibility for Khalaf's death. President Erdogan insists his operation is aimed at bringing peace to the region and should be welcomed internationally.

At least 20 people have been killed in Turkey by bombardment from Syria, including eight people in a single mortar attack by Kurdish militants, Turkish officials say, quoted by Reuters news agency.

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2019-10-18 09:35:14Z
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Boris Johnson's Brexit deal faces narrow defeat on Saturday, analysts warn - CNBC

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK) Boris Johnson gives a press conference at European Parliament on October 17, 2019 in Brussels, Belgium.

Jean Catuffe | Getty Images News | Getty Images

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that he is "very confident" the House of Commons will support his Brexit deal on Saturday, in what is widely expected to be a historic knife-edge vote.

The former London mayor secured a draft Brexit deal with the European Union on Thursday, following successive days of late-night talks and almost three years of tense discussions.

Johnson must now persuade a majority of U.K. lawmakers to support the draft agreement if he is to take Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31 — something he has promised to deliver "do or die, come what may."

Saturday's showdown is likely to be framed as a "new deal or no deal" moment, with the prime minister acutely aware it will be his last chance to get Members of Parliament (MPs) to approve the deal before the Brexit deadline.

However, the parliamentary arithmetic looks daunting for Johnson after he agreed to strike a deal with the world's largest trading bloc without the backing of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

The DUP, which supports Johnson's government on a confidence and supply basis, has said it will be unable to support the deal on Saturday.

"A narrow defeat in Saturday's Commons vote on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal is now our central scenario," Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, said in a research note published Thursday.

'Real prospect of a humiliating defeat'

Among other issues, the DUP has said it will oppose Johnson's draft deal over concessions made by the U.K. to the EU on customs checks at points of entry into Northern Ireland.

"As things stand, he faces a real prospect of a humiliating defeat because the DUP's 10 MPs are refusing to support his deal," Rahman said.

He added that while Johnson is "gambling" the DUP will drop its opposition to his deal, there was no sign of this happening before Saturday's vote.

That's because "the agreement would deny Unionists a veto when the Northern Ireland Assembly voted every four years on whether the province should remain in the EU's regulatory and customs orbit, with an effective border in the Irish Sea."

In the absence of support from the DUP, it is likely Johnson will need to count on the support of the 21 Conservative MPs he expelled from the party last month as well as some opposition Labour lawmakers.

'It is going to be tight'

"Johnson has a chance, but it is going to be tight," Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, said in a research note published Thursday.

The winning post in the House of Commons is 320, assuming everyone turns up to vote for Saturday's extraordinary session. Seven Sinn Fein MPs do not sit and the Speaker and three deputies do not vote.

Presently, there are 287 voting Conservative MPs, and Johnson will need to limit any rebellion among them. Pickering estimates 283 will back Johnson's new Brexit deal, thus leaving the prime minister needing 37 from outside his own ranks.

A pedestrian walks up a staircase on the southern bank of the River Thames with Houses of Parliament seen in the background in London on September 2, 2019.

TOLGA AKMEN | AFP | Getty Images

The prime minister "can probably count on the 21 MPs whom he kicked out of the parliamentary party in the last two months to back the deal on the basis they are brought back into the party," Pickering said. But, that would leave the prime minister 16 votes short of a majority.

Earlier this year, when Johnson's predecessor Theresa May took her own Brexit deal to MPs — for what turned out to be the third and final time — a total of nine lawmakers (five from Labour and four independents) backed the prime minister.

Pickering said that even if they, and the suspended Conservative MP Charlie Elphicke, now back Johnson's deal, it would still leave him six votes short of a majority.

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2019-10-18 09:23:39Z
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Donald Trump compares praises his own 'unconventional' approach in Syria cease-fire - The Telegraph

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2019-10-18 08:29:19Z
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Son of Mexican drug lord 'El Chapo' Guzman at center of shootout - CNN

Mexican federal troops had initially detained Ovidio Guzman Lopez, 28, in the northern city of Culiacan, in what Mexico's State Security Secretary Cristoban Castanillo called a "federally-coordinated operation."

But Security Minister Alfonso Durazo has told Reuters that he was later released, saying the decision was taken to protect lives.

Suspected members of the powerful Sinaloa drug cartel appeared to overpower the security forces during the shootout, who later suspended operations.

According to CNN affiliate ADN40, armored vehicles with military-grade machinery exchanged heavy artillery against federal troops in Culiacan, in the heart of Sinaloa.

The shootout forced many residents to flee in panic, others remained locked in their homes while outside, troops engaged in intense gun battles throughout the day. Residents have been asked to stay inside and schools have been closed until further notice, officials said, according to ADN40.

Images on social media appeared to show the terror unleashed on the inhabitants of Culiacan. Plumes of black smoke billowed on the horizon while on the ground, mothers coddled their children while searching for cover behind parked cars.

Late Thursday Durazo said government operations in Culiacan had been suspended following a violent back and forth between federal entities and criminal groups.

Durazo said that law enforcement officers and members of the Mexican National Guard were conducting a routine patrol when they were attacked by people inside a home in the city at around 3:30 p.m. local time (4:30 p.m. ET).

The patrol unit fought back and took control of the house, finding four occupants inside. Authorities identified one of the occupants as Ovidio Guzman Lopez.

During the confrontation, other members of an organized criminal group arrived on scene, with more firepower than authorities. Violent attacks also erupted in different parts of the city creating "a situation of panic," Durazo said.

With the "purpose of safeguarding the security and tranquility of the Culiacan society, the officials of the Cabinet of Security agreed to suspend said actions."

Who is Ovidio Guzman Lopez?

Ovidio Guzman Lopez is the son of Guzman and his second wife, Griselda Lopez. He is believed to have a large role in the Sinaloa cartel, according to the US Treasury Department.

In February, Ovidio Guzman Lopez was charged with conspiracy to distribute drugs to be imported into the US, along with his brother Joaquin Guzman Lopez, 34, by the US Department of Justice.

Prosecutors said that from April 2008 through April 2018, the brothers conspired to distribute cocaine, marijuana and methamphetamine from Mexico and other places to be imported into the US.

In July, their father -- the once-powerful leader of the Sinaloa cartel -- was sentenced to life in prison plus 30 years in the US.

Guzman was convicted in February on 10 federal charges, including murder conspiracies, running a continuing criminal enterprise and other drug-related charges.

He was considered the most "powerful drug trafficker in the world" by the Treasury Department and his criminal enterprise spanned continents and triggered bloodshed throughout his native Mexico.

In 2015 he dramatically escaped from prison, riding on a motorcycle through a tunnel that had been dug to his cell at the Altiplano maximum security federal prison.

Ray Donovan, the DEA special agent who spearheaded the 22-agency effort that led to Guzman's capture, told CNN in February that the Sinaloa cartel still supplies the vast majority of US drug markets.

"In fact, Chapo's sons are now risen through the ranks of the Sinaloa cartel and taken over Chapo's end of the organization," he said.

CNN's Natalie Gallón reported from Mexico City, Leyla Santiago reported from Washington DC, Maria Santana reported from New York, Helena DeMoura reported from Atlanta and Helen Regan wrote from Hong Kong.

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2019-10-18 07:40:00Z
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Syria cease-fire in question after fighting, shelling reported - Fox News

Just hours after President Trump announced a cease-fire between Turkish and Kurdish-led forces in Syria, journalists have reported continued fighting in the Syrian town of Ras al-Ayn on Friday morning, while other areas have reported relative calm since the agreement.

Journalists from the Associated Press reported witnessing shelling and said they could see smoke billowing around the town, which sits along the border with Turkey. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, reported intermittent clashes in Ras al-Ayn, but calm elsewhere.

ROMNEY SLAMS TRUMP OVER TROOP PULLOUT

Reuters also reported machine-gun fire and shelling that could be heard from a border town in Turkey near Ra al-Ayn.

Oct. 17: In this photo taken from the Turkish side of the border between Turkey and Syria, in Ceylanpinar, Sanliurfa province, southeastern Turkey, flames and smoke billow from a fire on a target in Ras al-Ayn, Syria, caused by shelling by Turkish forces. (Associated Press)

Trump had praised the cease-fire agreement as "a great day for civilization." He pointed to it as a victory after being criticized for his decision to withdraw U.S. forces from the region. At a rally on Thursday, he said it was his “unconventional” approach that led to the deal.

The agreement requires the Kurdish fighters to vacate a swath of territory in Syria along the Turkish border, largely solidifying Turkey's position.

A senior military official -- who worked on designing the U.S. anti-ISIS strategy with both the Kurds and the Turks -- told Fox News earlier that the 120-hour cease-fire had little chance of success.

"There is no way the Kurds can leave that security zone," the source said. "There are thousands of Kurds who live in what the Turks want as a buffer zone. That’s what these fighters’ families live. That is where they are from."

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Vice President Mike Pence told Fox News in an exclusive interview that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan knows Trump “says what he means" when he talks about slapping new sanctions on Turkey if its military defies the terms of the agreement.

Pence acknowledged the Trump administration was grateful to the Kurds that "helped us defeat ISIS," but point out that Turkey "had very real issues of terrorism and ISIS and the PKK organization, a Kurdish terrorist group the United States recognized as a terrorist organization many years ago."

Fox News' Jennifer Griffin, Melissa Leon and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

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2019-10-18 07:05:18Z
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Brexit deal has been reached say E.U. and U.K. leaders - The Washington Post

BRUSSELS — European and British negotiators struck a deal Thursday to split Britain from the European Union, raising the prospect that the country could be out of the bloc by the end of October. 

Negotiators working through the night in Brussels agreed on the draft Thursday morning after Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed on despite lingering questions about the warring factions in London. The agreement will still need approval by European leaders and the British Parliament.

“We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control — now Parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment,” Johnson tweeted, referring to the National Health Service.

British lawmakers passed a law requiring Johnson to ask to delay Brexit past the Oct. 31 deadline if a deal to ease the exit isn’t in place by Saturday.

“Where there is a will, there is a #deal - we have one! It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions,” wrote European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Twitter.

Earlier in the day, the leader of the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party, Arlene Foster, said she could not back the current proposal. 

Johnson chose to push forward despite failing to get the party on board, raising the prospect that it could quickly fall apart in London, as a previous deal did under Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.

If there is a vote on the deal in Parliament on Saturday, Johnson will face a huge showdown. Since becoming prime minister, Johnson’s working majority has gone from one to minus 43, meaning he will need the support of other parties to get the deal approved. 

“As things stand, we could not support what is being suggested,” said Foster, once a key member of Johnson’s dwindling coalition, in a statement before the deal was announced.

The statement still stands, spokesman for the party said.

[E.U. rejects Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposal, raising prospect of chaotic break within weeks]

If Johnson isn’t able to bring the Northern Ireland party onside, then he would need support from other parties, which seemed unlikely. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, said that from what was known, the deal agreed on Thursday was an “even worse deal” than May’s. He said that the “best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.”

Diplomats said before the announcement that it would be possible — just barely — to get a deal Thursday ratified by the European Parliament by the end of the month, giving Johnson a strong incentive to wrestle his warring political tribes into submission.

One senior E.U. official said that Johnson told the Europeans that he could get a deal ratified in Britain in just six days.

Diplomats now expect E.U. leaders who are gathering later Thursday to discuss the deal and potentially to give it a non-binding green light.

Then Johnson would likely seek to gain approval from his Parliament on Saturday — no certain thing.

But if he succeeds, the European Parliament would need to ratify the agreement, after which E.U. leaders would sign on one final time, this time in a binding manner.

“Discussions over the past days have at times been difficult. But we have delivered, and we have delivered together,” said E.U. chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

Johnson told Juncker that he “has faith in his ability to convince the majority he needs in the House of Commons,” Barnier said.

Under the deal, Britain would depart the European Union but would continue to apply E.U. rules until the end of 2020 in a transition period that would soften the split. E.U. and British negotiators would try to hammer out a trade deal and other elements of their future relationship in the meantime. The transition period could be extended up to two years if both sides agree.

According to people briefed on the talks, Johnson was willing to make a slew of concessions in the interest of fulfilling his promise to get Britain out of the European Union this month. 

The trickiest part of the talks always centered on the border between the Republic of Ireland, which remains in the European Union, and Northern Ireland, which is leaving the E.U. along with the rest of the United Kingdom.

Borderless movement has been a key part of the Good Friday Agreement that ended decades of violence in the region, but it was challenged by Brexit.

Elements of the new deal crossed red lines that previous British leaders have said would be impossible. British authorities will have to conduct customs checks in the Irish Sea for goods moving inside their own country as Northern Ireland will remain locked into most E.U. regulations and trade rules.

But the E.U. also made significant concessions that it had previously said were impossible. After four years, Northern Ireland lawmakers would have a vote on whether they wanted to stay so closely aligned with the European Union.

If they decline, that would likely require a hard border, something the E.U. had previously refused to countenance.

A gap in some sales tax rates between the European Union and Britain could potentially lead to smuggling, which E.U. leaders worry about.

Booth reported from London. Karla Adams in London contributed to this report.

Read more

The ‘rebel alliance’ teamed up to thwart Boris Johnson’s plans. Can it stay united to steer Brexit?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson offers a new Brexit plan, new suspension of Parliament

Brexit: U.K. and Europe edge closer to deal — but are not there yet

Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world

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2019-10-17 11:30:00Z
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