Minggu, 06 Oktober 2019

Is It Ever OK for a President to Ask a Foreign Country to Investigate a Political Rival? - POLITICO

Edward B. Foley directs the Election Law program at the Ohio State University’s Moritz College of Law, where he also holds the Ebersold Chair in constitutional law.

Here’s the big question on which the potential impeachment of President Donald Trump could turn: Is it ever appropriate for a U.S. president to ask a foreign government to investigate a political rival?

Democrats seem to assume the answer is no, that this kind of request could never be proper, given the implications for our electoral system. “Smoking gun” is what they say about Trump’s urging Ukraine—and now also China—to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden. Republicans, meanwhile, contend that it is perfectly normal, and justified, for Trump as president to ask the Ukrainians to look into potential corruption that involves Americans and could, in theory, affect U.S. relations with that country.

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“This is not about politics. This is about corruption,” Trump told reporters outside the White House on Friday.

But the real answer to this question is more complicated. History shows that a president sometimes might be justified in asking a foreign country to investigate a political rival, including a former vice president. So, the mere fact of Trump’s request for an investigation into the Bidens, without considering the circumstances of the request, is not enough to impeach him.

In order prove that Trump abused his presidential powers to the point that he no longer can be trusted in exercising them—the constitutional standard for impeachment—Congress must establish Trump’s intent in making the request. Was it done in good faith, with U.S. foreign or domestic interests in mind, or in bad faith, merely for Trump’s personal and political benefit? To prove the latter, Congress can’t rely on Trump’s words alone; it must show that the charges of corruption against the Bidens are baseless and that Trump’s request to Ukraine is part of a pattern of bad faith demonstrating that the nation no longer can tolerate his incumbency.

Going back to America’s early days, there have been occasional instances in which presidents would have been justified had they sought foreign investigations into political rivals. In 1804, Aaron Burr contacted the British government, apparently to peddle a plan for severing part of the United States to form a new country in western territory. In response, President Thomas Jefferson had Burr prosecuted for treason, and he was found not guilty. We can stipulate that Jefferson was excessively involved in the treason trial. But had he instead simply asked for Britain’s assistance in gathering more information about Burr’s involvement in this plot, that would have been entirely appropriate given the high stakes for the country.

This is true despite the fact that Jefferson was seeking reelection at the time and Burr, an incorrigibly ambitious politician, might still have coveted the presidency. It was unlikely that Burr would have been a serious rival to Jefferson’s reelection; the Federalist party, which opposed Jefferson, hated Burr for having slayed its hero, Alexander Hamilton. But Burr was still active politically and could not be discounted completely. Whatever the circumstances of the electoral rivalries at that moment—and campaigns back then were, of course, very different from today—Jefferson as president would have been acting responsibly if he had requested Britain’s assistance in the investigation of Burr.

For a more recent example, look to 1968, when Richard Nixon was the Republican nominee attempting to wrest the White House from Democratic hands. During the campaign, Nixon went so far as to encourage an emissary, Anna Chennault, to intervene with President Lyndon B. Johnson’s peace talks to end the Vietnam War. Johnson by then had dropped out of the Democratic primary, but his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, would end up the party’s nominee—making Nixon, in effect, a political rival. Even so, it would have been completely legitimate if LBJ, who did get wind of what Chennault was doing, had decided to ask South Vietnam for information about whether Nixon was directly involved in this ploy.

Sometimes, there is an inevitable tension between the president’s obligation to defend the nation as commander-in-chief and the president’s role as a candidate for reelection. But presidents, unlike subordinates, cannot recuse themselves from their commander-in-chief responsibilities. Rarely, but occasionally, acting in good faith as commander-in-chief might require an incumbent president to seek foreign assistance in pursuing an investigation of a former vice president—like Burr and Nixon—who is opposing the president’s reelection. As long as the president indeed acts in good faith, critics reasonably can question the soundness of the president’s decisions, but there would be no grounds for impeachment and removal of office.

What about Trump’s very real requests for foreign investigations of former Vice President Biden? Can they be defended from an impeachment charge on the ground that Trump was acting in good faith?

Maybe good faith wouldn’t be an adequate defense if Trump violated campaign finance laws by seeking a “thing of value” from foreign governments in support of his reelection campaign. But I would argue that some presidential conversations with foreign leaders must be considered beyond the scope of campaign finance regulation. The exercise of commander-in-chief responsibility in pursuit of the national interest should not get caught up in the interpretation of regulations that fundamentally are designed to protect American elections from foreign money.

Nor is a quid pro quo offer—if that is what Trump made to Ukraine when asking for an investigation—necessarily a sign of bad faith. Such an offer could be considered legitimate if it is in the service of a valid foreign policy objective, as Michael McFaul, President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Russia, recently observed.

These points are not to suggest that Trump was justified in requesting foreign investigation of Biden. Rather, they help point the focus of the inquiry where it belongs: on Trump’s motive. Congress must determine whether the president had a good-faith basis for believing that Biden engaged in any impropriety, comparable to Nixon’s or Burr’s, that could justify the kind of requests Trump made to Ukraine and China. From all the available evidence right now, it strains credulity for Trump’s defenders to claim he is acting in good faith, but Congress must make an official judgment as part of any formal impeachment proceedings.

How can Congress establish that Trump’s motive was nefarious? For starters, the House of Representatives will need to show that the Biden allegations are so spurious as to be necessarily made in bad faith. That will open the impeachment inquiry to whatever contrary evidence Trump can muster, unavoidably making Biden a focus of the inquiry—something Democrats presumably would prefer to avoid.

Members of Congress also will need to draw on their assessments of Trump’s character and behavior generally. For representatives in the House deciding whether to impeach, as well as potentially senators deciding whether to convict, if Trump is viewed as regularly acting in bad faith, then it is easier to rule out any defense of good faith as exonerating his conduct with regard to Ukraine.

Impeachment advocates will need to decide how much general character evidence they wish to pursue as a formal part of the process. Because impeachment is not a conventional criminal prosecution, they could rely on more of it than would be permitted in a courtroom. But doing so would go against the strategy of keeping impeachment proceedings narrowly focused.

This puts impeachment advocates in something of a procedural bind. They can limit their evidence solely to facts that directly relate to the president’s request for foreign investigation of the Bidens, like the recently revealed text messages among U.S. diplomats working on the issue. This strategy might end up being enough, but it risks leaving wiggle room for those in Congress inclined to give the president the benefit of the doubt on the Ukraine matter. Conversely, impeachment advocates could widen the range of evidence—pointing to all the ways that Trump has arguably abused the powers of the presidency for personal gain throughout his time in office—but this approach risks the accusation that Democrats are just relitigating matters that the voters want to decide for themselves at the ballot box.

The Goldilocks approach to impeachment evidence might be to focus on facts that demonstrate a specific form of bad faith and why it necessitates impeachment. This evidence would show not merely that Trump acted for reasons of personal electoral advantage in his dealings with Ukraine and China, but that he can never be expected to exercise his presidential powers on behalf of the public, as his oath of office requires, in the midst of a reelection campaign when his own interests are at stake. Proof of his incapacity to elevate national over self-interest can help persuade the public that impeachment truly is about the future, not the past—and, even more importantly, that the remedy of impeachment is necessary, because voters’ power to choose their president without improper interference cannot be safeguarded otherwise.

Of course, Trump might end up, in a sense, impeaching himself, if he continues to act in ways that only can be construed reasonably as bad faith. And evidence of U.S. envoys saying things like “I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign” would go far in demonstrating that Trump’s sole motive is (and will continue to be) an improper desire to secure an electoral advantage. Yet impeaching Trump for seeking a foreign investigation of Biden will require the conviction to be based not on his words alone, but on what was in his heart when he uttered those words. That is a tricky—but not impossible—bar for Congress to clear.

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https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/06/trump-ukraine-investigate-rival-229341

2019-10-06 10:54:00Z
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Key GOP senators split with Trump on Biden investigation push | TheHill - The Hill

President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump criticizes supposed second whistleblower North Korea missile test raises fears of new capabilities Window narrows for Trump trade deals MORE is pushing hard for an investigation of former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump criticizes supposed second whistleblower North Korea missile test raises fears of new capabilities Trump told House Republicans that he made Ukraine call because of Perry: Report MORE and his son, but the prospect of using the Oval Office to go after a political rival is prompting some GOP senators to speak out.

Sens. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyCollins: Trump's call for China to probe Biden 'completely inappropriate' Trump compares his impeachment to Clinton email server Trump calls for Romney's impeachment MORE (Utah), Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsCollins: Trump's call for China to probe Biden 'completely inappropriate' GOP searches for impeachment boogeyman McConnell signaling Trump trial to be quick, if it happens MORE (Maine), Ben SasseBenjamin (Ben) Eric SasseCollins: Trump's call for China to probe Biden 'completely inappropriate' GOP searches for impeachment boogeyman Trump slams 'ass' Romney for criticizing Ukraine dealings MORE (Neb.) and Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamGOP searches for impeachment boogeyman Graham defends Trump's calls with foreign leaders: He sounds like a 'normal person' Trump says House Democrats 'unfortunately' have the votes to impeach MORE (S.C.) have raised concerns, to varying degrees, about launching a politically motivated probe into the Bidens.

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Romney on Friday said Trump's call for China to investigate Biden was "wrong and appalling."

"When the only American citizen President Trump singles out for China’s investigation is his political opponent in the midst of the Democratic nomination process, it strains credulity to suggest that it is anything other than politically motivated," Romney said in a statement, which he also tweeted.

A day later, Collins said it was "completely inappropriate" for Trump to urge China to investigate Biden and his son.

"I thought the president made a big mistake by asking China to get involved in investigating a political opponent," Collins told the Bangor Daily News. "It’s completely inappropriate."

The Maine Republican has at times broken with her party on key votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.

Graham said earlier that he has no interest in conducting an investigation into the Bidens’ business dealings.

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He told reporters before the two-week October recess that any investigation of Biden and his son should be conducted outside the sphere of politics.

“We’re not going to do anything,” Graham said when asked what action he was going to take as Senate Judiciary Committee chairman regarding Hunter Biden's dealings with Ukraine. “I have no interest in opening up that front.”

“I don’t want to turn the Senate into a circus,” said Graham, who is considered one of Trump's strongest allies on Capitol Hill. “I want somebody to look at the conflict of interest outside of politics.”

The remarks were the latest example of occasional friction between Trump and Graham, who in September criticized the president's approach to Iran.

Romney's sharp remarks about Trump's effort to enlist China in a Biden investigation came a few days after he warned at a closed-door meeting of GOP senators that pushing for an investigation of Biden’s son Hunter was treading on dangerous ground that could boomerang on the party.

Romney made the point to lawmakers before the October recess that he’s not intimately familiar with the business dealings of his own children, suggesting that politicians should not be attacked because of the private employment of family members, according to a GOP senator in the room during the meeting.

“He said, ‘I don’t discuss my son’s business dealings with them,’” the GOP senator recounted, referring to Romney’s comments that he doesn’t vet the business and financial conduct of his five sons.

The implied message was that once Republicans go down the path of attacking political rivals over their family members, they open themselves up to the same types of criticisms.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellGOP searches for impeachment boogeyman Overnight Defense: House Dems subpoena White House for Ukraine documents | Pence pulled into inquiry | GOP senator says he confronted Trump over Ukraine aid | Iran hackers target 2020 campaign Trump says House Democrats 'unfortunately' have the votes to impeach MORE (R-Ky.) has already come under scrutiny for the business dealings and personal wealth of his father-in-law James Chao, the founder of a shipping company worth hundreds of millions of dollars, according to Forbes.

And Sen. Roy BluntRoy Dean BluntSunday shows preview: Republicans on defense as new reports emerge on impeachment GOP searches for impeachment boogeyman McConnell signaling Trump trial to be quick, if it happens MORE (R-Mo.), a member of McConnell’s leadership team, has family members who have worked as lobbyists for a variety of corporate interests, according to McClatchy News. His wife Abigail has lobbied for Altria, which recently bought a major stake in e-cigarette maker Juul.

Democratic strategists say Trump’s attacks on Hunter Biden, whom the president called “stone-cold crooked” at a nationally televised press conference with the president of Finland, make his eldest sons, Eric TrumpEric Frederick TrumpThe Hill's Campaign Report: Warren, Sanders overtake Biden in third-quarter fundraising Trump campaign, GOP raise M after Pelosi announces impeachment inquiry Schiff introduces bill to require agencies report spending at Trump properties MORE and Donald Trump Jr.Donald (Don) John TrumpOcasio-Cortez says woman who suggested 'eating babies' was Trump supporter Ocasio-Cortez hits Trump after he calls her a 'wack job' Hillicon Valley: Barr targets Facebook's encryption plans | Social media platforms dragged into 2020 fight | EU court says Facebook can be ordered to remove content | FBI warns of 'high-impact' ransomware attacks MORE, fair game to similar attacks.

“What the hell are Trump’s kids doing all around the world right now? It’s a minefield for Trump in many ways to me, attacking somebody’s family given what he does himself and what he has his family do,” said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist.

“I just don’t see this as some kind of golden bullet that’s going to hurt Biden and take him out in the primary process,” he added.

Trump’s second-eldest son, Eric, who is helping run the president’s business empire as executive vice president of The Trump Organization, wrote in an op-ed for The Hill on Thursday that media outlets would be all over him if he engaged in some of the same deals as Hunter Biden.

“If the situation were reversed, I would have been front page news in every newspaper, online publication, and cable news outlet for the rest of my life,” Eric Trump wrote.

“Reporters would be camping outside of my door, my family would have been picked apart, my name would have been smeared in the news every single week, and my father arguably would not even be president of the United States today,” he wrote.

But while some Republicans would like to see the media comb through Hunter Biden’s business dealings, others like Romney have expressed reluctance about making him and his father the target of official probes — a practice associated more with totalitarian regimes than the United States.

Trump, however, has ignored those concerns and instead doubled down on his calls for the Bidens to be investigated.

On Thursday he caused an uproar when he declared “China should start an investigation into the Bidens, because what happened in China is just about as bad as what happened with Ukraine.”

That statement sparked pushback from Sasse, who Trump has endorsed for reelection in 2020.

“Americans don’t look to Chinese commies for the truth. If the Biden kid broke laws by selling his name to Beijing, that’s a matter for American courts, not communist tyrants running torture camps,” Sasse said in a statement to the Omaha World-Herald.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/464476-key-republicans-split-with-trump-on-biden-investigation-push

2019-10-06 10:00:12Z
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Hong Kong Emergency Law Fails to Stop Masked Protesters Taking Over Streets - The Wall Street Journal

Protesters take to the streets in Hong Kong on Sunday. Photo: Vincent Yu/Associated Press

HONG KONG—Tens of thousands marched across Hong Kong to protest the government’s ban on wearing face masks at public gatherings, as backlash grew against the new regulation, enacted under an emergency-powers law.

Protesters turned out despite widespread closures of subway stations, working their way through the city’s streets in the rain. Many passed out masks, helmets and umbrellas to fellow protesters, and wore masks themselves in defiance of the ban.

“We’re not afraid of getting arrested,” said Tiffany, who works in customer service and declined to give her last name. “The government is trying to suppress us even more—that’s exactly why this movement started in the first place.”

Hong Kong’s subway operator, MTR Corp. , reopened some stations early Sunday after closing down the city’s subway network Friday night and all day Saturday. Some stations that have been vandalized by protesters remained shuttered on Sunday and those that were reopened are set to close earlier than usual, at 9 p.m.

Hong Kong’s Mask Ban

The measure prohibits anyone from wearing a mask at unlawful or public gatherings. Here’s what that means.

  • Any material—including paint—that covers a person’s face is prohibited.
  • Exemptions can be granted for religious, medical and professional reasons.
  • Police are authorized to stop and search anyone wearing a mask in a public area and require the person to remove it.
  • People who wear masks at unlawful assemblies of three or more people, public gatherings of more than 50 and public marches of more than 30 face up to 12 months in jail and a fine of more than $3,000
  • People in a public area who don’t remove masks at the request of police face up to six months in jail and a fine of around $1,300.

Protesters said the decision by the city’s leader, Chief Executive Carrie Lam, to invoke the colonial-era emergency law on Friday wouldn’t solve the crisis. The emergency law gives the government sweeping powers to impose curfews, censor media and seize control of ports and transport links. Only the ban on masks has been put into force under the law.

Angela, a recent graduate who works in marketing, said the government’s decision to invoke emergency powers has strengthened the protest movement. “It’s backfired,” she said. “It’s made us more angry.”

The ban prompted a night of violent clashes across Hong Kong on Friday night, including one in which a police officer shot a 14-year-old boy, who was later arrested on charges of rioting and assaulting police, authorities said. Saturday saw relatively few demonstrations, though in the evening police said protesters erected barricades and vandalized shops in several neighborhoods in the city’s northern Kowloon district.

Separately, Hong Kong’s High Court rejected a request for an injunction blocking the ban on face masks at a hearing on Sunday. The request—the second in three days—was sought by 24 pro-democracy members of the city’s legislative council. The lawmakers argued that Mrs. Lam acted unconstitutionally in bypassing the legislature to issue the ban.

A lawyer for the city said the ban was justified due to “mayhem that we have not seen since 1967,” pointing to acts of vandalism and arson at recent protest sites. Lawmakers have requested a judicial review of the emergency law. Another hearing is set for late October.

The citywide unrest, now in its 18th weekend, was sparked by an extradition bill that would have allowed Hong Kong to send suspects for trial in mainland China. Ms. Lam said last month she would withdraw the bill, giving into one of the protesters’ key demands. The movement demands the government meet four additional demands, including the establishment of a judge-led commission to investigate allegations of excessive use of force by police.

Sunday’s march was broadly peaceful as of late afternoon, though police in a statement said some protesters had blocked roads and erected barricades at locations around the city. Several riot police could be seen occupying overpasses and other elevated areas near areas where protesters had gathered.

Authorities in Hong Kong invoked an emergency law for the first time in half a century to ban people from wearing face masks at public gatherings. WSJ explains what it means for the future of the city's protests and its global status. Photo: JEON HEON-KYUN/EPA

Write to Dan Strumpf at daniel.strumpf@wsj.com

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-emergency-law-fails-to-stop-masked-protesters-taking-over-streets-11570350249

2019-10-06 08:24:00Z
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Sabtu, 05 Oktober 2019

Trump’s call for China to probe Biden may give it trade war leverage - Business Insider

Donald Trump   Xi JinpingPresident Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing in November.REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

  • President Donald Trump stood on the White House lawn Thursday and called on China to investigate one of his chief political rivals, former Vice President Joe Biden, potentially offering Beijing crucial leverage as it seeks a favorable conclusion to an economically damaging and divisive trade war with the US. 
  • "China should start an investigation into the Bidens," Trump said as he was leaving the White House for a trip to Florida.
  • Trump's extraordinary request potentially offers Beijing crucial leverage in upcoming negotiations as it seeks to end the trade war with the US. 
  • It also mirrors his 2016 comments as a presidential candidate when he invited Russia to release the emails of his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
  • Any trade deal struck with the world's second largest economic power would be subject to immediate scrutiny — and raise questions whether Trump offered Beijing beneficial terms in exchange for dirt on his political rivals.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. 

President Donald Trump stood on the White House lawn Thursday and called on China to investigate one of his chief political rivals, former Vice President Joe Biden, potentially offering Beijing crucial leverage as it seeks a favorable conclusion to an economically damaging and divisive trade war with the US. 

"China should start an investigation into the Bidens," Trump said as he was leaving the White House for a trip to Florida. He was referring to business deals Hunter Biden was involved in that drew substantial investment from Chinese government-owned financial institutions. 

Trump's extraordinary request mirrors his 2016 comments as a presidential candidate when he invited Russia to hack and publicly release the emails of his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. And it echoes what he privately said to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a July 25 phone call, pressing him to probe the Bidens on unsubstantiated allegations of corruption in their Ukrainian dealings.

Read more: Trump reportedly promised China's president that he'd stay quiet on Hong Kong protests as long as trade talks progressed

The call eventually led an intelligence officer to file a whistleblower complaint, and spurred Democrats to launch impeachment proceedings against Trump.

The president's remarks came just one week before a Chinese delegation is set to arrive in Washington for trade negotiations. Moreover, any trade deal struck with the world's second largest economic power would be subject to immediate scrutiny — and raise questions about whether Trump offered Beijing beneficial terms in exchange for dirt on his political rivals.

CNN recently reported that Trump raised Biden's political fortunes — as well as those of Sen. Elizabeth Warren — during another June phone call.

Still, Trump maintained he had a range of choices when it came to dealing with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

"We're going to have a meeting with them, we'll see," Mr. Trump said of the talks on Thursday. "I have a lot of options on China. But if they don't do what we want, we have tremendous power."

Beijing has a lot of new leverage in the grinding trade war.

Trump launched the trade war against China in early 2018, aiming to rectify an economic relationship he believed was damaging and unfair to the United States, particularly on the theft of intellectual property and forced technology transfers. But trade negotiations have stalled this year — and both the US and China have slapped hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tariffs on each other's goods, contributing to a cooling of their economic growth.

Seeking to strike a deal that ends the pain, Chinese government officials could "try to hint at a potential exchange of policy concessions for information, if the information is damaging at all," Victor Shih, a Chinese political economy professor at the University of California San Diego, told Reuters. 

To seal a favorable deal, China could publicly open an investigation into the Bidens, or could secretly share information on their China dealings with Trump or his emissaries. They could even fabricate business dealings about the Bidens to damage one of Trump's top rivals.

Given its extensive surveillance capabilities, China would likely already have any compromising information on the Bidens' dealings without needing to publicly open an investigation, according to Mary Lovely, a China expert at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. 

Read more: Pelosi says it's 'almost not worth' impeaching Trump, but that the Constitution and democracy 'is worth it'

If the Bidens did something wrong, Lovely told Insider, "and that's a big if, China would already know. I don't think this adds much information for them."

Lovely also said, "What it does add is another brick onto Trump's domestic problems," referring to Trump's public call for China to probe the Bidens. Instead, "the Chinese government is focused on ending the trade war that doesn't undermine Xi's political power."

There is no evidence that the former vice president traded favors with the Chinese government to help his son Hunter Biden's business dealings in the country.

Impeachment is adding uncertainties to the already volatile trade war.

Trump has little room to maneuver with China, given the US has already levied tariffs on $550 billion worth of Chinese goods, with more set to go into effect Dec. 15 on consumer goods such as laptops, cell phones, and toys. Trump could hike existing tariff rates, but that would lead to even more price increases that would hurt Americans, who are already bearing their cost.

As a result, several of the president's advisers have reportedly urged him to make a deal with China and avoid any escalations that further hit American's wallets.

Yet the impeachment probe and any attempt by Trump to link Biden to a possible deal throws a wrench into how long it will take for the dust to finally settle from the trade war.

Eleanor Olcott, a Chinese policy analyst at the TS Lombard consultancy, told the South China Morning Post: "The impeachment proceedings tie Trump's hands when it comes to his domestic agenda, so his attention will be focused on his foreign policy stance, meaning we are likely entering a period of more volatile trade war news."

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https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-call-china-investigate-biden-xi-jinping-trade-war-2019-10

2019-10-05 13:18:43Z
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Deaths Mount as Iraq Goes to War With Itself - The New York Times

Iraq is at war again, but this time with itself.

Security forces have repeatedly turned their weapons on fellow Iraqis this past week, killing at least 87 and wounding more than 2,000, as of Saturday.

This week, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in Baghdad and across southern Iraq to protest widespread government corruption, unemployment and a lack of basic services such as electricity.

The Iraqi authorities lifted a multiday curfew in Baghdad on Saturday that many antigovernment protesters had ignored. Parliament was set to meet to discuss protesters’ demands, while senior Iraqi officials, including the prime minister and Parliament speaker, were set to meet with protesters.

The harsh response by the security services suggested, however, that they had been given leeway by the leadership to take any steps necessary to halt the protests, signaling how ill-prepared the government was to respond to the demands of its own citizens.

It was also a reminder that Iraq, which never experienced an Arab Spring-like rebellion with people pouring into the streets, had security forces that were trained to deal with terrorism but were a loss to find less lethal ways to control crowds.

“I came out to the streets to ask for reform in my country and to find salvation from the mafias who have stolen my country and was greeted brutally by the security forces,” said Ibrahim Ahmed Yusuf, 34, who was wounded in the neck while demonstrating in Tahrir Square in Baghdad.

“We are peaceful protesters, but the security forces treated us with brutality, as if we were animals, not humans demanding our rights,” he said.

There have been protests in Iraq before, and some seemed more violent, including those in 2016, when crowds entered the Parliament and demanded an end to corruption, which is a core demand of the protesters now. This time, however, the protests have come with a broader and deeper sense of the government’s incompetence, and draw support from Iraqi youth, intellectuals and educated people, as well as from some political parties trying to make the most of it.

Many Iraqis are jobless, and despite the end of the largest part of the fight against the Islamic State, as well as the government’s increased oil revenues, little money is being put into jobs programs or improving services, at least not enough that people feel a significant difference in their daily lives.

Iraqis are continuing to protest despite a more violent, at times deadly, response on the part of the security forces, who in some cases have been firing directly at the protesters rather than into the air to disperse them, according to multiple reports from protesters. This itself suggests desperation, even a willingness to risk everything.

“This reflects a broad realization that the system is incapable of reforming itself,” said Randa Slim, a senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute.

“But then what is the path forward?” said Ms. Slim, who was in Iraq recently to meet with people from different backgrounds and political orientations. “I don’t think anyone has a clue.”

The protests, which began on Oct. 1, seemed to come out of nowhere, but were apparently sparked by a recent, disturbing political event: the removal in September of a highly respected general, Abdul-Wahab Al-Saadi, from the leadership of the counterterrorism command.

General Al-Saadi, who was widely believed to have done a good job in fighting the Islamic State, especially on the difficult battlefields of Mosul and Falluja, was peremptorily removed from his job and assigned to the ministry of defense.

General Al-Saadi’s profile — he is a Shiite but not aligned with any party — made him something of an Everyman soldier-hero. His dismissal was explained on the street as linked to his lack of corruption, in contrast to other senior figures, and his refusal to kowtow to the Popular Mobilization Forces, military entities within the Iraqi security forces, some of which have links to Iran.

Whether people knew General Al-Saadi was less important than what he stood for, said Abbas Kadhim, the director of the Iraq Initiative and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who was visiting southern Iraq when demonstrations started.

“This was just a spark that unleashed all built-up grievances,” he said.

“Many of the grievances are not about Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government,” he added. “But when you are the prime minister, you have to pay for your mistakes and those of previous leaders.”

At first, the demonstrations were small, but as the police and security forces responded with violence, they grew in size and quickly spread. The government made little effort to curb the security forces’ violence, and by Friday the Iraqi Federal Police had warned in a statement that snipers who were not part of the security forces were shooting at both the protesters and the police.

It was unclear whether these were shadowy entities within the Iraqi security establishment or elements linked to political parties or to neighboring countries seeking to promote instability in Iraq.

Caught off guard by the demonstrators, the government at first met the protesters’ anger with silence, allowing repressive actions by the security forces to dominate the narrative. Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi put a curfew in place, shut down the internet and called in additional police forces. Then he made a brief statement that backed up the security forces.

Only on Friday — as criticism rained down from the senior Shiite clerics, the United Nations and rights groups, and the repression seemed to have little effect — did the government began to reach out to those among the demonstrators whom they called the “peace protesters.”

The Parliament speaker, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, invited representatives of the protesters to meet with him, offering a laundry list of concessions. Mr. Mahdi also was planning to meet with protesters on Saturday.

The problem is that political parties now smell blood and believe they can topple Mr. Abdul-Mahdi and gain ground for themselves. Already, the leaders of two sizable political parties, Sairoon and Al Hikma, openly criticized the government and called for reform. The former is led by Moktada al-Sadr, the nationalist Shiite cleric who has been a thorn in the side of whoever has been in charge in Iraqi since 2003.

Mr. al-Sadr called for his bloc to stop participation in the Parliament and for the government to resign. If he decides to call his followers to the streets, he has broad influence in Sadr City, a sprawling, largely poor neighborhood of Baghdad that is home to more than a million people, as well as in Iraq’s second largest city, Basra, and elsewhere in southern Iraq.

Unlike the 2016 protests, when many participants were followers of the cleric, these protests include a cross-section of Iraqis, many without ties to political parties.

Different provinces have different demands, however. The disparate goals that drove people into the streets mean that, at least for now, there are no clear leaders to negotiate on behalf of the aggrieved.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/05/world/middleeast/iraq-protest.html

2019-10-05 12:20:00Z
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Will the entire Republican Party serve as Trump's impeachment propaganda machine? - Salon

At the end of the first week of Donald Trump’s impeachment inquiry, the president finds himself without a corroborated factual defense against allegations of corruption. Yet he has the consensus support of virtually the entire Republican caucus on Capitol Hill. Rather than back away from a president whose crimes are revealed at a near-hourly rate, Republicans in Congress have now pledged to aid in the White House’s propaganda campaign meant to slow-walk the impeachment inquiry. 

After screaming “NO COLLUSION!” for the last three years, Trump flatly asserted on Thursday that he has “an absolute right” to ask a foreign government to investigate his political rival. Further attempting to normalize his impropriety, the president turned to the television cameras gathered on the South Lawn of the White House lawn and asked the government of China for help in investigating Joe Biden, a potential political rival, as he had admittedly already done. 

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Late Thursday brought yet another test to Republicans’ resolve when Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee released text messages between U.S. diplomats and a senior Ukrainian aide that show how a potential Ukrainian investigation into Joe Biden and the 2016 election was linked to a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump, which authorities in Kyiv badly wanted.

Although the evidence is unambiguous, Trump seems to believe that enough Americans see nothing wrong with using public funds to pressure foreign leaders to investigate political rivals. 

He just has to tweet “NO QUID PRO QUO!” enough times. After all, he hasn’t lost the support of one Republican in Congress, with perhaps the ambiguous exception of Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, the last non-Trump Republican presidential nominee. Everyone else seems to have realized that he really is above the law, and as long as they stick with him, so are they. It is increasingly clear with every passing hour that they will never abandon their man. 

As Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., suggested after hours of testimony and pages of communications were provided by Kurt Volker, the former U.S. special representative for Ukraine, “the administration is an even stronger place today than they were this morning.” 

House Republicans, after initially attacking the intelligence community whistleblower who reported Trump’s pressure campaign against Ukraine, have finally settled on an impeachment pushback plan: Distraction.

Following Trump’s demand that House Intelligence Committee chair Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., be arrested for treason, House Republicans announced plans to formally rebuke the congressman.

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They also kicked off a weekly briefing session this week to keep Republicans on-message with the White House. The Trump administration is now reportedly arguing that it's not compelled to provide documents in the impeachment inquiry unless a formal vote is held by the full House. 

“The president has confessed his violation of his oath of office so we don’t need too much inquiry,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted on Thursday. 

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Trump has essentially made it open season for foreign governments to help him get re-elected. The silence of the vast majority of Republicans is deafening. “Your silence,” as constituent Amy Haskin told Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, this week, “supports him.” Ernst is up for re-election next year in a purple state that Trump won in 2016 but that Barack Obama carried twice, and where Trump's approval rate has gone deep underwater. 

So far Romney is the only Senate Republican to voice concern on the record about the president’s alleged actions, tweeting that if Trump “asked or pressured Ukraine’s president to investigate his political rival, either directly or through his personal attorney, it would be troubling in the extreme.”

Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, a Republican who plans to retire in 2022, said on Thursday that there was nothing improper about Trump's call on Chinese officials to investigate Biden. A year before, Johnson had said that "any foreign interference in our elections is unacceptable."

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Senate and House Republicans are standing by their man because they sense that if they abandon Trump, they won’t win another national election in a generation. As Peter Beinart wrote: "For many Republicans, Trump remains uncorrupt — indeed, anticorrupt — because what they fear most isn’t the corruption of American law; it’s the corruption of America’s traditional identity.”

But as Trump grows ever more emboldened in his lawlessness, he may well damage the egos of at least some prominent Republicans who pride themselves on portraying a personal brand that embodies fidelity to the law.

“Hold up: Americans don’t look to Chinese commies for the truth,” said Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska in a recent written statement. “If the Biden kid broke laws by selling his name to Beijing, that’s a matter for American courts, not communist tyrants running torture camps.” The president has recently lavished praise on Sasse, a onetime Never-Trumper. Democrats would be wise to force embattled Senate Republicans up for re-election next year — a list that includes Sasse, Ernst, Susan Collins of Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado — to keep on defending Trump as his words and deeds keep getting more blatant.

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https://www.salon.com/2019/10/05/will-the-entire-republican-party-serve-as-trumps-impeachment-propaganda-machine/

2019-10-05 11:00:00Z
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Impeachment takeaways: From diplomatic texts to Trump's tweets - POLITICO

Another week, and the impeachment drama increases. The latest developments — from diplomatic text messages to presidential tweets — could leave even the most dialed-in politico’s head spinning.

We asked four reporters who have been covering Trump’s presidency and the investigations to share their thoughts on where we are and where we’re going.

Where are congressional Republicans and are there any signs of cracks in Trump’s firewall of support?

Melanie Zanona, Congress reporter: I don’t expect to see a GOP jail break — at least not yet. Only a few Republicans have spoken out publicly against Trump, but it’s mostly the usual Trump critics or retiring members. Most Republicans are just keeping their heads down and waiting to see what else comes out and how it plays back home. I suspect we’ll have a better sense of where the GOP conference stands after the recess.

Ben Schreckinger, national political correspondent: Mitt Romney and Ben Sasse have both criticized Trump for calling on China to investigate the Bidens. But they are part of the same small group of Republican senators who have been willing to take on Trump all along. Marco Rubio, a China hawk, has declined to call out Trump for it. It does not seem like his firewall is breaking in the Senate, which is all that will matter if he is impeached.

Josh Gerstein, legal affairs contributor: I don’t see Trump’s wall of support collapsing, but a few bricks do seem to be jostling loose. I was struck this week by some commentators who almost always align themselves with the president, openly criticizing him over the Ukraine episode. “Donald Trump should not have been on the phone with a foreign head of state encouraging another country to investigate his political opponent Joe Biden. … There's no way to spin this as a good idea,” Fox host Tucker Carlson and Daily Caller publisher Neil Patel wrote. They went on to say Trump’s infraction didn’t merit impeachment, but any disagreement from Trump’s Amen chorus must get under his skin given his repeated insistence that the call was “perfect.”

Heather Caygle, Congress reporter: Republicans left the closed-door House intelligence committee hearing Friday seeking to deflect criticism of the president onto Adam Schiff, the Democrat who heads it. Republicans are attacking Schiff more than defending Trump, accusing the Intel chairman of helping orchestrate the allegations. It’s been easier for Republicans to stay quiet, in part, due to the congressional recess — a two-week break where most members are away from the Capitol and its press corps.

What’s the Biden campaign’s strategy to deal with these accusations and deal with voters’ concerns that he carries some political baggage from his past service?

Melanie: Biden can use this fight as an opportunity to show voters what a Biden-Trump matchup would look like. And he can argue that the president views him as his biggest threat in the general election — a central pillar of Biden’s argument for why he should be the Democratic nominee.

Ben: Biden’s family — and their business dealings — are a sensitive issue for the campaign, perhaps a reason they were slow out of the gate to seize on questions about Trump’s use — or misuse — of his office. Biden has been more forceful recently in condemning Trump, but there remains a real messaging dilemma for Democrats. Elizabeth Warren has struggled to answer a question about whether her ethics plan would allow a vice president’s child to sit on the board of a foreign company. And Biden’s allies are unhappy that the Democratic National Committee has barely lifted a finger to defend the Bidens, even as the Republican National Committee goes after them nonstop, as Marc Caputo and Natasha Korecki reported this morning.

Josh: Democrats may be loath to admit it to reporters or pollsters, but I suspect Trump’s attacks are fueling doubts about whether Biden’s extensive experience is in some respects a liability and that there may be too much history that provides fodder for political attacks. Ethical concerns about relatives have long dogged presidents. Even with Trump’s own vulnerability on cronyism and a slew of ethics issues, some Democrats may be looking for a candidate without even the whiff of scandal. Biden’s camp seems to be arguing that embarking on such a quest is giving in to Trump, since he’ll try to tar anyone the Dems offer up.

Heather: The Biden campaign hopes that confronting the issue and dismissing the allegations against Hunter now will neutralize the issue in the general election. The strategy appears to be one designed to show Biden not shying away Trump’s claims about his son, many of which lack evidence. It’s another way for Biden to prove he’s the best candidate to take on Trump.

What do the latest developments mean for the State Department and Secretary Mike Pompeo, as they are both dragged into — or willingly stepped into — the political vortex?

Melanie: Now we know Rudy Guiliani wasn’t just freelancing in his Ukraine pressure campaign: U.S. diplomats were actively pushing Ukraine to investigate Biden and the 2016 election on behalf of Trump. Expect Democrats to paint a picture of a president who was using foreign diplomacy for personal gain. This could also damage the credibility of Pompeo, who is said to have political ambitions of his own.

Ben: Aside from the question of whether Pompeo is implicated in the scandal, the fact that the president had his personal lawyer running a shadow foreign policy in Ukraine further undermines the State Department’s standing. I also expect the role of Rick Perry and U.S. energy policy to become a bigger part of this story

Josh: We’re starting to learn more about what the key players in Ukraine policy knew about all this. Special Envoy Kurt Volker’s insistence that the investigation he was pressing Ukraine to commit to in order get a visit to the White House was not at all a probe into Joe Biden seems implausibly naïve for a sophisticated diplomat. But there must be many other players in this saga at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, at the State Department and at the National Security Council, who know at least as much as the CIA whistleblower, if not more.

As for Pompeo, everyone has wondered how he’s managed to stay in Trump’s good graces, where so many other officials have not. His actions to bolster Trump’s political goals with the Ukrainians help explain the unusual favor Pompeo has enjoyed in a Cabinet that has seen incredible turnover.

Heather: For Pompeo, everything is likely viewed, at least in part, through the lens of how this could impact his long-term political career. He is rumored to be considering a Senate run in his home state of Kansas and has notably refused to rule out the possibility. He has been, and remains, a close ally and defender of Trump, and seems to have earned the president’s trust in a way that some of Trump’s other current and former cabinet officials weren’t able to do. Pompeo has continued to define himself as a fierce defender of the president, as evidenced earlier this week when he threatened to block State Department officials from testifying as part of the House’s impeachment inquiry.

Where does Attorney General Bill Barr’s credibility stand with lawmakers and the public now that it has been revealed that he enlisted the White House — and in some cases, President Donald Trump personally — in seeking international cooperation in the probe into how the Trump-Russia investigation began?

Melanie: Democrats have long viewed Barr suspiciously, ever since he put out that initial summary of the Mueller report and took the extraordinary step of determining Trump did not obstruct justice. They say he is acting like the president’s personal attorney as opposed to the nation’s attorney. The whole Ukraine episode is only to give Democrats more ammunition, but I don’t expect them to target Barr with something like a censure resolution or trying to get him disbarred — they have bigger fish to fry.

Ben: Normally, an attorney general will go to lengths to avoid the appearance of politicizing the Justice Department (though they often fall short). Few things appear more political than investigating the origins of an investigation into the president. Then again, pressuring a foreign government to investigate your rival counts as one of those few things, so, as Melanie points out, Barr may luck out here by finding the story move past him.

Josh: Democratic lawmakers soured on Barr long ago., especially for what they regarded as spin that he put on the Mueller report. But that was mostly a complaint that he gave a skewed preview of a report that was made public in large part a few weeks later.

The confirmation this week that Barr asked Trump to reach out to world leaders to seek cooperation in Justice Department’s ongoing review of the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation is a highly irregular step because of Trump’s direct personal and political interest in the outcomes of that review. Why couldn’t State Department officials or ambassadors have handled that outreach? Dems are focused on a bigger target at the moment, but Barr—who portrays himself as a by-the-book type— will have to grapple with these questions eventually.

Heather: When Barr initially took the position, many Democrats were privately relieved that a career official with a long history of government service would be assuming the important role as the nation’s top cop. But after Barr’s handling of the Mueller report drew accusations that he was seeking to defend and protect Trump, Democrats have universally soured on the attorney general. Barr’s credibility in their eyes only continues to diminish as more information comes out about his attempts to validate Trump’s efforts to discredit the origins of the Russia investigation. Barr has also been the public face of the Justice Department’s all-out blockade of House Democrats’ sprawling oversight requests, and some of those disputes are still playing out in federal court.

Where are we at the end of this week? Do impeachment/a Senate trial/other damaging outcomes for Trump seem more likely after the disclosures of the past seven days?

Ben: Trump’s impeachment does seem more likely, especially in light of the president asking China to investigate the Bidens and the disclosure of text messages in which one U.S. diplomat made it clear he believed the administration was withholding security assistance to Ukraine in order to help Trump’s reelection. We’ve also seen a number of figures involved in this saga, including Rudy Giuliani and his associate Lev Parnas, lawyer up, another sign that we are in for another full-blown Washington legal-political showdown. It’s shaping up to be a Mueller re-match.

Melanie: It’s quickly becoming a question of when, not if, Democrats put articles of impeachment on the House floor. It just depends on when they feel like they have enough evidence to make a convincing case to the American public. There are a whole lot of dots — and now Democrats need to connect them. But things are a little more murky in the Senate: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has made clear that he has to consider impeachment if the House follows through, but he hasn’t indicated how long the trial will last or if he will just move to dismiss it immediately.

Josh: We’re definitely closer to impeachment now, largely because of the new disclosures about Trump’s Ukraine strategy being operationalized by diplomats.

But an even bigger problem for the president may be his decision that he’ll defend himself against impeachment on the fly, without heeding professional advice. This--and goading from reporters--seems to lead to ever-escalating claims on the president’s part about his right to do anything he wants to tar Biden. Trump’s China comments triggered new criticism from Romney. But Trump’s inability to stick to a clear message--like when he denied a quid pro quo and then suggested that he’d be entirely justified in offering one-- has even complicated the efforts of those trying to help him. He routinely saws off boards that his allies are presently standing on.

Heather: Democrats saw this week as a victory in their efforts to paint Trump’s conduct as an abuse of his power and of the office of the presidency. But they also feel like they succeeded in another area — keeping momentum behind the impeachment inquiry and winning the messaging war against a president who generally dictates the direction of the news cycle on a daily basis. For Democrats, it’s something many felt they weren’t able to do in the aftermath of the Mueller investigation, when Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other leaders remained opposed to an impeachment investigation.

Impeachment seems almost inevitable, especially after the release of damning text messages from senior diplomats discussing Trump’s desire to exert his leverage over foreign leaders in order to satisfy his political objectives. In addition, Democrats are showing they have no intention of slowing down their investigation, with subpoenas (or the threat of one) slapped on Pompeo and the White House. And on Friday, Democrats further escalated their inquiry by demanding Vice President Mike Pence turn over any documents he has related to the Ukraine controversy.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/05/impeachment-trump-takeaways-030098

2019-10-05 10:32:00Z
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