Rabu, 11 September 2019
Bolton and Trump offer different versions of national security adviser's exit - CBS This Morning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLaWFnyUh-A
2019-09-11 11:35:59Z
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Netanyahu annexation pledge denounced as 'dangerous' and 'racist' - Aljazeera.com
Palestinian and regional leaders have sharply denounced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's pledge to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank if he wins next week's snap election.
Netanyahu, who is fighting for his political life after an inconclusive vote in April, said on Tuesday Israel will "apply Israeli sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea immediately" if he secured a fifth term in the September 17 polls.
The Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea make up 30 percent of the West Bank. They lie in Area C, which means they are mostly under Israeli military and civil control.
Approximately 65,000 Palestinians and 11,000 Israelis residing in illegal settlements live in that area, according to Israeli human rights group B'Tselem. The main Palestinian city is Jericho, with about 28 villages and smaller Bedouin communities.
After Netanyahu's announcement, Arab foreign ministers meeting in Cairo called his election promise a "dangerous development and a new Israeli aggression by declaring the intention to violate the international law."
"The Arab League regards these statements as undermining the chances of any progress in the peace process and will torpedo all its foundations."
In a series of separate statements, Qatar criticised "Israel's continued contempt of international law"; Turkey slammed the annexation pledge as "racist"; Jordan called Netanyahu's plan a "serious escalation"; and Saudi Arabia called for an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
The United Nations, meanwhile, warned that Netanyahu's plan would have "no international legal effect".
Palestinian reaction
During his televised announcement, Netanyahu also reaffirmed a pledge to annex all of the Jewish-only settlements Israel has established in the West Bank.
Some 650,000 Israeli Jews currently live in more than 100 settlements built since 1967. International law views both the West Bank and East Jerusalem as "occupied territories" and considers all Jewish settlement-building activity there as illegal.
Palestinians swiftly reacted to Netanyahu's statements by saying he was destroying any hopes of peace.
Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, warned that all agreements signed with Israel would end if it annexed parts of the West Bank, noting that Netanyahu's announcement contradicts UN resolutions and international law.
Hanan Ashrawi, a senior official in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), wrote on Twitter that Netanyahu was seeking to impose a "greater Israel on all of historical Palestine and [carry] out an ethnic cleansing agenda".
"This announcement is a declaration of war against the Palestinian people's rights as well as the very foundations of the international rules-based order," she said in a separate statement.
'Complicity' with US administration
In his address, Netanyahu also said a long-awaited United States peace plan, the release of which has been delayed until after the election, represented "a historic and unique opportunity to apply our sovereignty over our settlements" in the West Bank and "other places key to our security, our heritage and our future".
White House senior adviser Jared Kushner said in early May that he hoped Israel would take a hard look at President Donald Trump's upcoming proposal before "proceeding with any plan" to annex West Bank settlements.
Abdulsattar Qassim, a political science professor at al-Najah University in Nablus, said Palestinians are not expecting anything from Trump, a staunch Netanyahu ally who has enacted a series of policies that support Israel's expansion, including the widely condemned decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
"From the way Trump has been behaving, we expect that he will support any kind of Israeli decision to annex parts of the West Bank," Qassem told Al Jazeera.
"Trump has shown great animosity towards the Palestinians. He has transferred the US embassy to Jerusalem, supported the annexation of the occupied Golan Heights, and cut the financial resources of UNRWA, the Palestine Liberation Organization and the PA."
According to Qassem, Netanyahu's pledge to annex occupied Palestinian territories is hardly new within the arena of Israeli politics.
"This project is not exclusive to Netanyahu," he said. "All across the Israeli political spectrum, from Labour to the right-wing Likud party, Israelis have favoured the annexation of the West Bank."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/netanyahu-annexation-pledge-denounced-dangerous-racist-190911080929932.html
2019-09-11 09:49:00Z
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Why John Bolton had to leave and what to expect next - CNN
For a time the now ex-national security adviser, who first caught Trump's eye with his tough talk on Fox News, was useful to the President -- sharing his desire to shake up the globe.
But like everyone else in Trump's dysfunctional foreign policy team, Bolton wore out his welcome, standing in the way of his boss' impetuous instincts and seeking a share of the spotlight.
Only in the bizarre Trump orbit could the exit of a national security adviser seen an ideologue and aggressive hawk be seen in some ways as the removal of a stabilizing force. But he did have a view of American interests and the use of US power that while hardline was predictable and logical and positioned within the historic boundaries of US diplomacy.
With him gone, Trump may have more leeway to indulge his more dovish instincts, which rarely match big talk with action. And US diplomacy is likely to reflect its principal author even more closely. It will be more impulsive, less strategic and more geared to creating iconic moments, like the President's stroll into North Korea with Kim Jong Un.
Democratic Rep. John Garamendi welcomed Bolton's departure given his "radical" instincts but warned of instability to come.
"This President has a mind of his own, often we wonder what is exactly in that mind ... chaos rules the day," Garamendi, a member of the House Armed Services Committee told CNN's Brooke Baldwin.
Trump badly needs a foreign policy win
Like everything in Trump's foreign policy, there is a political explanation for the latest storm that rocked the White House.
Trump's first term, while succeeding in traumatizing US allies and causing global disruption, is largely bereft of the big wins the great dealmaker promised back in 2016.
North Korea, despite Trump's embrace, is not denuclearizing. Iran is moving closer to building a nuclear bomb after Trump pulled out of an international nuclear deal. China is rising fast and Russia is resurgent after interfering in US elections.
That's a problem as Trump contemplates a lackluster record and goes in search of iconic achievements -- and longed for baubles, such as a Nobel Peace Prize -- ahead of the 2020 election.
The President is in perilous political territory -- dipping to 39% approval in a new CNN/SSRS poll. Only 36% of those asked said he deserved reelection. So victories, preferably bringing favorable media coverage are imperative -- and soon.
Trump's team, given a lack of leverage or expertise, may struggle to manufacture big foreign policy breakthroughs. But eye catching summits will do just as well for a White House that cuts even Trump's routine meetings with foreign leaders into campaign highlight reels designed to frame him as a statesman.
"This likely signals that Trump is desperate to run a string of deals, however cosmetic, prior to the 2020 election on Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea and sees Bolton as a roadblock," said Colin Kahl, a former Obama administration aide affiliated with the Foreign Policy for America advocacy group.
While Bolton, who even his many enemies will admit is a man of principle and a master of the Washington game, knows how to blow things up -- such as the Iran nuclear deal -- he was increasingly in the way of the President's photo-op diplomacy.
Most recently, Bolton objected to Trump's idea to bring Taliban terrorists to Camp David close to the anniversary of 9/11 in search of a deal to bring troops home.
And, according to CNN sources, he told Trump so to his face, contradicting a gut call by a President who demands obedience in a way that was always likely to cut his tenure short.
A win for North Korea
Bolton's skepticism of Trump's infatuation with North Korea's Kim was also no secret. When Trump pulled off his scheme to visit his pen pal on the DMZ in June, Bolton took himself off to Mongolia. He contradicted the President by saying that the North's short-range missile tests contravened UN resolutions. Pyongyang responded by calling him a "human defect."
And Trump's adoption of his hardline position on denuclearization seems to have been at least party behind the collapse of the Hanoi summit earlier in the year.
In fact, Bolton's departure represents a victory for North Korea, which had been trying for months through its official media to drive a wedge between him and Trump. Now, coincidentally, the rogue nation says it's ready to talk again to the US.
Bolton was also a bump on a log for Trump when it came to Russia. While the President spent the recent G7 summit making Russian President Vladimir Putin's case for getting back in the club, Bolton never let go of his smoldering Cold War suspicions.
Trump also appears to blame Bolton, an unreconstructed hawk, for bringing him to the brink of war with Iran after the shooting down of a US drone over the Gulf of Oman.
With him gone, Trump will have greater leeway to pursue his reported hopes of organizing what would be a stunning meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the United Nations General Assembly later this month.
Bolton is unlikely to go quietly given his flair for public relations and long list of media contacts. He seems unlikely to emulate the dutiful but pregnant silence on Trump by former Defense Secretary James Mattis as he promotes his book.
As Bolton looks back on his 19 months in the White House, he can claim several victories for his hardline school of foreign policy. The Trump administration banned an International Criminal Court prosecutor from visiting the US. The United States also withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council. And under his watch the US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal.
And the ex-national security adviser might have succeeded in one of his final acts of killing of a deal with the Taliban that critics see as a fig leaf to cover a US surrender.
But Bolton's strong backing for what looked a lot like a coup attempt in Venezuela by opposition leader Juan Guaido did not work and made the Trump administration look foolish.
Ultimately, Bolton's departure is revealing for all the insights it offers into life inside Trump's White House.
Its timing on the eve of 9/11 anniversary commemorations was also appropriate. Bolton was just about the last remnant of the neoconservative foreign policy establishment that grabbed power after the world's worst terror attack.
Much of Trump's antipathy to foreign entanglements -- like the Iraq invasion and America's longest war that he is trying to end -- springs from policies put in place by Bolton and his cohorts.
The current President seems to have no organized doctrine -- other than his "America First" mantra that is mostly an offshoot of his campaign trail rhetoric rooted in a belief that the rest of the world is perpetually ripping America off.
Happy that Bolton is gone
Bolton's personality clash with Trump also offers a glimpse into how this administration works.
He became the latest key foreign policy official to cross an invisible red line for Trump -- seeming to have an agenda and power base that is distinct from the President's own.
White House sources told CNN on Tuesday told CNN they believed that Bolton was leaking to the press about Trump's now canceled plans to host the Taliban at Camp David.
Shortly after Trump fired Bolton -- by tweet -- two of his former antagonists, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, could barely hide their smiles.
The two men also showed they had learned the lessons of how to work for Trump that Bolton apparently never absorbed -- namely appeasing his wildest instincts and showing no disloyalty.
"We work very closely with the President of the United States," said Pompeo, who is not that ideologically different than Bolton but is poles apart on handling Trump.
"I don't think any leader around the world should make any assumption that because some one of us departs, that President Trump's foreign policy will change in a material way," he said.
Pompeo's comment reflected reality, that the rest of the world -- US allies and Trump subordinates, especially -- have learned over two-and-a-half tumultuous years. America's foreign policy does not follow precedent, doctrine or any predictable course.
It's what Trump says it is at any given moment. And people who work for him can either live with that or get out.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/politics/donald-trump-john-bolton-national-security/index.html
2019-09-11 04:46:00Z
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Selasa, 10 September 2019
5 things to know for September 10: North Carolina, North Korea, Bahamas, Russia spy - CNN
Here's what else you need to know to Get Up to Speed and Out the Door. (You can also get "5 Things You Need to Know Today" delivered to your inbox daily. Sign up here.)
1. Politics
The last contest of the 2018 election cycle could be considered the first of the 2020 cycle. Let us explain. A special election is being held today in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District. The State Board of Elections ordered up a new election after credible allegations of ballot fraud emerged during the 2018 contest. That's why Republican Dan Bishop is facing off against Democrat Dan McCready today. It's a heavily GOP district, but it looks like the race could be close. So, everyone is watching this one to see whether the Democrats can continue the success they enjoyed in the 2018 midterms or whether the popularity of President Trump -- who rallied there last night -- is still strong enough in a Southern state to help a GOP candidate win the day.
2. North Korea
North Korea is back at it. The North fired off a couple of unidentified projectiles into the East Sea this morning. The launches happened just a couple hours after a North Korean diplomat said the country is open to restarting talks with the US. North Korea has conducted 10 launches -- believed to be mostly short-range missiles -- since May. President Trump has said he's not particularly worried about the launches and referred to them as "very standard."
3. The Bahamas
Almost 5,000 Bahamians have left their country so far after Hurricane Dorian blasted through Grand Bahama and Abaco islands. But Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Minnis promised that the country would start rebuilding the residents' communities so they could return home. There's still controversy brewing after 119 people hoping to evacuate Grand Bahama on a ferry were told to get off if they didn't have visas to enter the US. The ferry's operator apologized for the incident. And a US Customs and Border Protection official stressed that people from the Bahamas would be processed in an expedited manner if they came here because of the disaster. Meantime, survivors are telling harrowing stories of destruction and devastation. Three CNN reporters are sharing their stories, too, of what it was like to ride out Dorian and emerge to its aftermath.
4. US and Russia
The US extracted one of its spies out of Russia in 2017, partly over fears that President Trump and his administration repeatedly mishandled classified intelligence and could contribute to exposing the covert source as a spy. That's according to multiple Trump administration officials who talked to CNN for this exclusive report. The decision to carry out the extraction came after an Oval Office meeting in May 2017 in which the President shared highly classified intelligence with two Russian officials. The spy was the highest level source for the US inside the Kremlin and had access to Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to CNN's sources. White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham disputed CNN's reporting, saying it's "not only incorrect, it has the potential to put lives in danger."
5. Cargo ship rescue
The last crew member of a cargo ship that overturned off the coast of Georgia has been rescued. The Coast Guard pulled the man, who had been trapped behind glass in an engineering control room, out of the Golden Ray cargo ship to cheers and applause. The ship, which was carrying automobiles, capsized early Sunday in St. Simons Sound. Twenty crew members were rescued a few hours later. But fires that broke out on the Golden Ray prevented rescuers from freeing the final four crew members until yesterday. They went to hospitals.
BREAKFAST BROWSE
Cheese heads
A restaurant featuring cheese on a conveyor belt? No, it's not in Wisconsin. You'll have to travel to London for this dream eatery.
Dia de los Muertos
We've seen Barbie in just about every iteration you can think of, but this has got to be a first. Introducing the Day of the Dead Barbie.
Spending spree
What should you do if you open up your bank account and see $120,000 in there that you know isn't yours? Do the exact opposite of what this couple did.
In the latest edition of the Monopoly board game, women get more than men when they pass "Go."
Police in England thought they were headed to a plane crash. Instead, that bright flash in the sky turned out to be a meteor.
TODAY'S NUMBER
$1.7 million
The amount a seminary in Virginia is setting aside to pay reparations to the descendants of slaves who worked on its campus
HAPPENING LATER
Take a bite
Apple is expected to show off some new iPhones today at a big media event, but don't expect anything earth-shattering.
TODAY'S WEATHER
AND FINALLY
Every wonder how Donald Duck answers the phone? This guy gives us a pretty good idea. (Click to view.)
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/10/us/five-things-september-10-trnd/index.html
2019-09-10 10:05:00Z
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A Historic Peace Plan Collapses - The New York Times
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President Trump abruptly called off negotiations between the United States and the Taliban that could have ended the war in Afghanistan and canceled a secret meeting at Camp David. We look at how a historic peace deal went off the rails.
[For an exclusive look at how the biggest stories on “The Daily” podcast come together, subscribe to our newsletter. Read the latest edition here.]
On today’s episode:
Peter Baker, the chief White House correspondent for The New York Times.
Image
Background reading:
The United States and the Taliban, after nine rounds of painstaking negotiations in Doha, Qatar, appeared to have ironed out most of the issues between them. But President Trump canceled a secret meeting at Camp David and called off the talks.
What jarred many Afghans was how a single attack and the death of one American, cited by Mr. Trump, could upend 10 months of negotiations.
Tune in, and tell us what you think. Email us at thedaily@nytimes.com. Follow Michael Barbaro on Twitter: @mikiebarb. And if you’re interested in advertising with “The Daily,” write to us at thedaily-ads@nytimes.com.
Peter Baker contributed reporting.
“The Daily” is made by Theo Balcomb, Andy Mills, Lisa Tobin, Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Annie Brown, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Larissa Anderson, Wendy Dorr, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Alexandra Leigh Young, Jonathan Wolfe, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, Luke Vander Ploeg, Adizah Eghan, Kelly Prime, Julia Longoria, Sindhu Gnanasambandan, JazmÃn Aguilera, M.J. Davis Lin and Dan Powell. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Mikayla Bouchard, Stella Tan and Julia Simon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/10/podcasts/the-daily/a-historic-peace-plan-collapses.html
2019-09-10 10:00:00Z
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U.K. Parliament Recesses As Boris Johnson Reels From String Of Defeats - NPR
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, seen at a joint news conference Monday with Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in Dublin. Johnson has suffered a rough couple of weeks, as lawmakers scuttled first his attempt to maintain a hard Brexit deadline — then, his attempt to call a snap general election. Charles McQuillan/Getty Images hide caption
The bad days just keep on coming for Boris Johnson.
On Monday, less than a week after lawmakers roundly rejected the British prime minister's plan to leave the European Union with or without a deal, Johnson's fallback plan suffered much the same fate: Members of Parliament voted a second time to shoot down his call for an early general election, sending his political fortunes staggering as the lawmaking body embarks on a five-week suspension.
Beginning Tuesday, Parliament is out of session until Oct. 14. The legislative recess, which Johnson requested late last month, means lawmakers will return to work with precious little time before the Oct. 31 deadline to leave the EU — though now that Parliament has enacted a law forcing him to ask the EU for a delay if there's no deal in place, it's unclear just how likely it is they'll make that deadline.
In the meantime, Johnson has plenty to stew on.
In the past week, a defection cost his Conservative-led coalition its working majority in Parliament; lawmakers — including 21 of his fellow Conservatives — voted down his bid to plow ahead with Brexit; his own brother, Jo Johnson, stepped down from Parliament, citing a tension "between family loyalty and the national interest"; and his secretary of state for work and pensions, Amber Rudd, resigned from his cabinet and lambasted his punitive expulsion from party membership of Conservatives who had voted against him as "an assault on decency and democracy."
The string of stinging defeats was capped Monday with his failure to obtain the votes necessary to call a snap election next month. He had hoped that positive polls promised a big victory in the election, which would allow him to shore up his support in Parliament. But to call that election, he needed the approval of two-thirds of lawmakers, or more than 430 votes. Instead, he got just 293.
"I want an election, we're eager for an election, but as keen as we are, we are not prepared to inflict the disaster of a no-deal on our communities, our jobs, our services, or indeed our rights," said Johnson's counterpart in the opposition, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Now, Johnson is faced with a teeming array of angry lawmakers, many of whom have vehemently objected to his controversial decision to suspend Parliament. In the final chaotic moments before their formal departure Tuesday, some members of the body displayed their displeasure on the chamber floor with signs reading "Silenced."
— Rosie Duffield MP (@RosieDuffield1) September 10, 2019
The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, criticized the move to suspend Parliament, as well.
"It is not typical," said Bercow, who stunned the House of Commons by announcing his decision to step down Oct. 31 after 10 years as speaker. "It is not standard. It's one of the longest for decades and it represents — not just in the minds of many colleagues, but huge numbers of people outside — an act of executive fiat."
It is unclear how Johnson plans to proceed at this point. Despite the law against a no-deal Brexit, he has made quite clear he has no intention of requesting another delay from the EU. In fact, last week he outright vowed that he would not do so, telling reporters that he'd rather be "dead in a ditch."
If Johnson follows through on that pledge, another showdown with Parliament — as well as a legal challenge — could be in the offing. Several lawmakers have already warned him against it.
"Be careful," Ian Blackford, leader of the opposition Scottish National Party, told Johnson. "You occupy the highest office in the land. And what you're demonstrating to the people of the United Kingdom is that the law doesn't matter."
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/10/759285001/u-k-parliament-recesses-as-boris-johnson-reels-from-string-of-defeats
2019-09-10 09:15:00Z
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UK Parliament is now suspended as Brexit crisis boils over: Here's what could happen next - CNBC
Demonstrators gather outside Houses of Parliament for a protest on 03 September, 2019 in London, England to oppose the prorogation of the U.K. Parliament.
NurPhoto | NurPhoto | Getty Images
With the U.K Parliament now shuttered for five weeks and the recent political turmoil throwing up more questions than answers, analysts have been busy contemplating what could happen next in Britain as it approaches its Brexit deadline.
The shutdown of Parliament — known as prorogation — will see lawmakers reconvene on October 14. The suspension marks the end of one parliamentary session before the start of the next, and it's usual for it to take place at this time of year.
However, the current shutdown, which began in the early hours of Tuesday, is more controversial than most due to its extended length and because it comes at a period of high anxiety in U.K. politics over the direction of Brexit.
It's fair to say the U.K.'s political establishment has been in tumult since the divisive 2016 referendum on EU membership. It has culminated in Parliament's three-time rejection of the existing Brexit deal on offer, but also the dismissal of a no-deal Brexit.
This summer, Parliament saw the arrival of a new prime minister in July determined for the U.K. to leave the EU on October 31 "come what may."
What just happened?
That divide between Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government and Parliament was thrown into sharp relief in a dramatic week full of intrigue, votes and resignations.
In the last seven days, lawmakers seized control of parliamentary business, voted to block a no-deal Brexit and to force the prime minister to ask for a further delay to the departure (legislation that hastily became law on Monday) as well as twice rejecting Boris Johnson's bid to bring about a snap election that could strengthen his hand.
Johnson was dealt further blows with key resignations from his government, including that of his own brother who said he was torn between "family loyalty and national interest."
Now Parliament is suspended for five weeks and will reconvene just days before an EU Council summit on October 17 which is just over two weeks from the currently proposed Brexit departure date.
Here's a brief guide to what could (and what is meant to) happen next:
Brexit on October 31?
As it stands, the U.K. is still due to leave the EU on October 31 whether it has a deal or not. A majority of Parliament voting to block a no-deal Brexit does not mean that it won't still happen.
For starters, the EU would have to agree to granting another delay to the U.K.; and there are already grumblings from the continent that the U.K. has not presented valid reasons for requesting more time. Johnson could also ignore the law requiring him to ask for more time.
Ignoring a no-deal Brexit
Despite Parliament voting to block a no-deal Brexit and passing a law, Johnson has repeatedly said he would still try to take the U.K. out the EU on October 31.
In fact, he has said he would rather "die in a ditch" than ask the EU for more time and some believe he could launch a legal challenge to the no-deal Brexit legislation, also known as the "Benn Law."
"Johnson is expected to challenge the Benn Law in the Supreme Court," analysts Joseph Lupton and Olya Borichevska at J.P. Morgan said in a note Monday.
"He also may send a letter to the EU to encourage it not to grant an extension. Those strategies are unlikely to succeed on their own merits, but could further Johnson's pre-election signalling of a hard-line, no compromise Brexit on October 31."
More talks?
Johnson has insisted he wants a deal and would use the time that Parliament is suspended to continue last-ditch talks with Brussels to get over the major stumbling point of the Irish "backstop."
This is seen as an insurance policy designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland if the U.K. and EU can't agree a trade deal in a post-Brexit transition period (only envisaged if there is a deal). As it stands, the backstop would keep Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. in a customs union with the EU, making it very unpopular with Brexiteers in Parliament.
The BBC reported Monday that the government could be considering a compromise over the Irish "backstop" in that it could be applicable to Northern Ireland only, potentially placating Brexiteers — albeit at the expense of lawmakers bent on keeping the U.K. indivisible in terms of law.
Election before 2020?
Although opposition parties defeated Johnson's bids to hold an early election (his Conservative Party still leads opinion polls) most did so because they wanted to see the threat of a no-deal Brexit dissipate.
The legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was not enough for many lawmakers, however, with several opposition parties wanting to see the departure date delayed before agreeing to a snap election (Johnson needs two-thirds of Parliament to approve a snap vote).
With Parliament also suspended now until October 14 and the no-deal Brexit legislation in place, most Brexit watchers now see a snap election as likely to happen in November, after a possible delay to the departure date.
Deal by October 31?
With speculation that Johnson's government could be considering the proposal of a compromise over the "backstop" policy, some experts believe that a deal could still possibly be passed before October 19.
Goldman Sachs' base case scenario says "there is no pre-Brexit general election and a Brexit deal is struck and ratified by the end of October," according to its European Economist Adrian Paul.
"In substance, we think that deal is unlikely to look very different from the Brexit deal already negotiated between the EU and the U.K. — a deal that was repeatedly rejected under PM May's premiership."
Still, Goldman Sachs notes that a delayed departure could lead to a November election in which either the one-issue Brexit Party could do well leaving "the path open to a 'no deal' Brexit early next year."
Second referendum?
Alternatively, opposition parties could unite to try to bring about a second referendum. "The potential for the Liberal Democrats or the SNP (Scottish National Party) to accrue influence in a minority government led by the Labour Party after a November general election preserves a path to a second referendum," the Goldman analysts noted.
Goldman has revised down the probability on a "no-deal" Brexit from 25% to 20% and the probability of "no Brexit" from 30% to 25%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/uk-parliament-is-now-suspended-what-happens-next-with-brexit.html
2019-09-10 08:56:27Z
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