UK Parliament is now suspended as Brexit crisis boils over: Here's what could happen next - CNBC

Demonstrators gather outside Houses of Parliament for a protest on 03 September, 2019 in London, England to oppose the prorogation of the U.K. Parliament.

NurPhoto | NurPhoto | Getty Images

With the U.K Parliament now shuttered for five weeks and the recent political turmoil throwing up more questions than answers, analysts have been busy contemplating what could happen next in Britain as it approaches its Brexit deadline.

The shutdown of Parliament — known as prorogation — will see lawmakers reconvene on October 14. The suspension marks the end of one parliamentary session before the start of the next, and it's usual for it to take place at this time of year.

However, the current shutdown, which began in the early hours of Tuesday, is more controversial than most due to its extended length and because it comes at a period of high anxiety in U.K. politics over the direction of Brexit.

It's fair to say the U.K.'s political establishment has been in tumult since the divisive 2016 referendum on EU membership. It has culminated in Parliament's three-time rejection of the existing Brexit deal on offer, but also the dismissal of a no-deal Brexit.

This summer, Parliament saw the arrival of a new prime minister in July determined for the U.K. to leave the EU on October 31 "come what may."

What just happened?

That divide between Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government and Parliament was thrown into sharp relief in a dramatic week full of intrigue, votes and resignations.

In the last seven days, lawmakers seized control of parliamentary business, voted to block a no-deal Brexit and to force the prime minister to ask for a further delay to the departure (legislation that hastily became law on Monday) as well as twice rejecting Boris Johnson's bid to bring about a snap election that could strengthen his hand.

Johnson was dealt further blows with key resignations from his government, including that of his own brother who said he was torn between "family loyalty and national interest."

Now Parliament is suspended for five weeks and will reconvene just days before an EU Council summit on October 17 which is just over two weeks from the currently proposed Brexit departure date.

Here's a brief guide to what could (and what is meant to) happen next:

Brexit on October 31?

As it stands, the U.K. is still due to leave the EU on October 31 whether it has a deal or not. A majority of Parliament voting to block a no-deal Brexit does not mean that it won't still happen.

For starters, the EU would have to agree to granting another delay to the U.K.; and there are already grumblings from the continent that the U.K. has not presented valid reasons for requesting more time. Johnson could also ignore the law requiring him to ask for more time.

Ignoring a no-deal Brexit

Despite Parliament voting to block a no-deal Brexit and passing a law, Johnson has repeatedly said he would still try to take the U.K. out the EU on October 31.

In fact, he has said he would rather "die in a ditch" than ask the EU for more time and some believe he could launch a legal challenge to the no-deal Brexit legislation, also known as the "Benn Law."

"Johnson is expected to challenge the Benn Law in the Supreme Court," analysts Joseph Lupton and Olya Borichevska at J.P. Morgan said in a note Monday.

"He also may send a letter to the EU to encourage it not to grant an extension. Those strategies are unlikely to succeed on their own merits, but could further Johnson's pre-election signalling of a hard-line, no compromise Brexit on October 31."

More talks?

Johnson has insisted he wants a deal and would use the time that Parliament is suspended to continue last-ditch talks with Brussels to get over the major stumbling point of the Irish "backstop."

This is seen as an insurance policy designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland if the U.K. and EU can't agree a trade deal in a post-Brexit transition period (only envisaged if there is a deal). As it stands, the backstop would keep Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. in a customs union with the EU, making it very unpopular with Brexiteers in Parliament.

The BBC reported Monday that the government could be considering a compromise over the Irish "backstop" in that it could be applicable to Northern Ireland only, potentially placating Brexiteers — albeit at the expense of lawmakers bent on keeping the U.K. indivisible in terms of law.

Election before 2020?

Although opposition parties defeated Johnson's bids to hold an early election (his Conservative Party still leads opinion polls) most did so because they wanted to see the threat of a no-deal Brexit dissipate.

The legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was not enough for many lawmakers, however, with several opposition parties wanting to see the departure date delayed before agreeing to a snap election (Johnson needs two-thirds of Parliament to approve a snap vote).

With Parliament also suspended now until October 14 and the no-deal Brexit legislation in place, most Brexit watchers now see a snap election as likely to happen in November, after a possible delay to the departure date.

Deal by October 31?

With speculation that Johnson's government could be considering the proposal of a compromise over the "backstop" policy, some experts believe that a deal could still possibly be passed before October 19.

Goldman Sachs' base case scenario says "there is no pre-Brexit general election and a Brexit deal is struck and ratified by the end of October," according to its European Economist Adrian Paul.

"In substance, we think that deal is unlikely to look very different from the Brexit deal already negotiated between the EU and the U.K. — a deal that was repeatedly rejected under PM May's premiership."

Still, Goldman Sachs notes that a delayed departure could lead to a November election in which either the one-issue Brexit Party could do well leaving "the path open to a 'no deal' Brexit early next year."

Second referendum?

Alternatively, opposition parties could unite to try to bring about a second referendum. "The potential for the Liberal Democrats or the SNP (Scottish National Party) to accrue influence in a minority government led by the Labour Party after a November general election preserves a path to a second referendum," the Goldman analysts noted.

Goldman has revised down the probability on a "no-deal" Brexit from 25% to 20% and the probability of "no Brexit" from 30% to 25%.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/uk-parliament-is-now-suspended-what-happens-next-with-brexit.html

2019-09-10 08:56:27Z
52780370598444

UK Parliament is now suspended as Brexit crisis boils over: Here's what could happen next - CNBC

Demonstrators gather outside Houses of Parliament for a protest on 03 September, 2019 in London, England to oppose the prorogation of the U.K. Parliament.

NurPhoto | NurPhoto | Getty Images

With the U.K Parliament now shuttered for five weeks and the recent political turmoil throwing up more questions than answers, analysts have been busy contemplating what could happen next in Britain as it approaches its Brexit deadline.

The shutdown of Parliament — known as prorogation — will see lawmakers reconvene on October 14. The suspension marks the end of one parliamentary session before the start of the next, and it's usual for it to take place at this time of year.

However, the current shutdown, which began in the early hours of Tuesday, is more controversial than most due to its extended length and because it comes at a period of high anxiety in U.K. politics over the direction of Brexit.

It's fair to say the U.K.'s political establishment has been in tumult since the divisive 2016 referendum on EU membership. It has culminated in Parliament's three-time rejection of the existing Brexit deal on offer, but also the dismissal of a no-deal Brexit.

This summer, Parliament saw the arrival of a new prime minister in July determined for the U.K. to leave the EU on October 31 "come what may."

What just happened?

That divide between Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government and Parliament was thrown into sharp relief in a dramatic week full of intrigue, votes and resignations.

In the last seven days, lawmakers seized control of parliamentary business, voted to block a no-deal Brexit and to force the prime minister to ask for a further delay to the departure (legislation that hastily became law on Monday) as well as twice rejecting Boris Johnson's bid to bring about a snap election that could strengthen his hand.

Johnson was dealt further blows with key resignations from his government, including that of his own brother who said he was torn between "family loyalty and national interest."

Now Parliament is suspended for five weeks and will reconvene just days before an EU Council summit on October 17 which is just over two weeks from the currently proposed Brexit departure date.

Here's a brief guide to what could (and what is meant to) happen next:

Brexit on October 31?

As it stands, the U.K. is still due to leave the EU on October 31 whether it has a deal or not. A majority of Parliament voting to block a no-deal Brexit does not mean that it won't still happen.

For starters, the EU would have to agree to granting another delay to the U.K.; and there are already grumblings from the continent that the U.K. has not presented valid reasons for requesting more time. Johnson could also ignore the law requiring him to ask for more time.

Ignoring a no-deal Brexit

Despite Parliament voting to block a no-deal Brexit and passing a law, Johnson has repeatedly said he would still try to take the U.K. out the EU on October 31.

In fact, he has said he would rather "die in a ditch" than ask the EU for more time and some believe he could launch a legal challenge to the no-deal Brexit legislation, also known as the "Benn Law."

"Johnson is expected to challenge the Benn Law in the Supreme Court," analysts Joseph Lupton and Olya Borichevska at J.P. Morgan said in a note Monday.

"He also may send a letter to the EU to encourage it not to grant an extension. Those strategies are unlikely to succeed on their own merits, but could further Johnson's pre-election signalling of a hard-line, no compromise Brexit on October 31."

More talks?

Johnson has insisted he wants a deal and would use the time that Parliament is suspended to continue last-ditch talks with Brussels to get over the major stumbling point of the Irish "backstop."

This is seen as an insurance policy designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland if the U.K. and EU can't agree a trade deal in a post-Brexit transition period (only envisaged if there is a deal). As it stands, the backstop would keep Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. in a customs union with the EU, making it very unpopular with Brexiteers in Parliament.

The BBC reported Monday that the government could be considering a compromise over the Irish "backstop" in that it could be applicable to Northern Ireland only, potentially placating Brexiteers — albeit at the expense of lawmakers bent on keeping the U.K. indivisible in terms of law.

Election before 2020?

Although opposition parties defeated Johnson's bids to hold an early election (his Conservative Party still leads opinion polls) most did so because they wanted to see the threat of a no-deal Brexit dissipate.

The legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was not enough for many lawmakers, however, with several opposition parties wanting to see the departure date delayed before agreeing to a snap election (Johnson needs two-thirds of Parliament to approve a snap vote).

With Parliament also suspended now until October 14 and the no-deal Brexit legislation in place, most Brexit watchers now see a snap election as likely to happen in November, after a possible delay to the departure date.

Deal by October 31?

With speculation that Johnson's government could be considering the proposal of a compromise over the "backstop" policy, some experts believe that a deal could still possibly be passed before October 19.

Goldman Sachs' base case scenario says "there is no pre-Brexit general election and a Brexit deal is struck and ratified by the end of October," according to its European Economist Adrian Paul.

"In substance, we think that deal is unlikely to look very different from the Brexit deal already negotiated between the EU and the U.K. — a deal that was repeatedly rejected under PM May's premiership."

Still, Goldman Sachs notes that a delayed departure could lead to a November election in which either the one-issue Brexit Party could do well leaving "the path open to a 'no deal' Brexit early next year."

Second referendum?

Alternatively, opposition parties could unite to try to bring about a second referendum. "The potential for the Liberal Democrats or the SNP (Scottish National Party) to accrue influence in a minority government led by the Labour Party after a November general election preserves a path to a second referendum," the Goldman analysts noted.

Goldman has revised down the probability on a "no-deal" Brexit from 25% to 20% and the probability of "no Brexit" from 30% to 25%.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/uk-parliament-is-now-suspended-what-happens-next-with-brexit.html

2019-09-10 08:55:49Z
52780370598444

Gen. David Petraeus: Camp David Taliban meeting 'symbolism would've been troubling' but Trump was right to ... - Fox News

Former CIA Director Gen. David Petraeus [Ret.] said the symbolism of hosting Taliban officials at the Camp David presidential retreat would've been troubling -- but that President Trump made the right call in the end.

The president was right to call off the summit at the compound in the mountains near Thurmont, Md., especially given the fact the U.S. is very close to remembering the 18th anniversary of the September 11 terror attacks, Petraeus said Monday on "The Story."

"I think the symbolism of that [meeting] would've been a bit troubling," he said.

PETRAEUS PRAISES TRUMP, CALLS OUT NATO, NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

"Remember, that was where the decision was made to invade Taliban in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. As you reflect on that, certainly, again, I think the president very much made the right call."

Of the Taliban keeping its word following a negotiated deal with the U.S., Petraeus said there was some concern among those at the Pentagon.

More from Media

"A number of us, as it was noted, expressed reservations," he said. "I know there were reservations elsewhere in the Department of Defense and in uniform," he said.

"The Taliban certainly hadn't slowed down the violence whatsoever," he added. "There are very grave reservations... about whether they could even do what they've said they would do, which is to keep Al Qaeda and now the Islamic State from establishing a sanctuary in Afghanistan again, as they had a sanctuary when the Taliban ran the country when the attacks for 9/11 were planned."

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Petraeus, former commander of CENTCOM, added the Taliban was not acting in "good faith" ahead of what was supposed to be a summit with Trump.

"They refused to reduce the level of violence even as we were negotiating with them in good faith," he said.

"They have refused to actually negotiate with the actual democratically-elected government of President Ashraf Ghani -- with elections coming up which they also did not want to see."

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.foxnews.com/media/david-petraeus-trump-taliban-meeting-camp-david-afghanistan

2019-09-10 04:26:05Z
52780375859632

Fallout from Trump's canceled Taliban summit - ABC News

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MufDVoJyMNo

2019-09-09 14:26:00Z
52780375859632

'Grand Bahama right now is dead': A firsthand look at Dorian's destruction - CNN

At least 45 people are dead, hundreds are missing and some 70,000 are homeless. There is no power or running water. Aid is arriving slowly on the island of Grand Bahama, where Dorian parked for almost two days and caused damage one usually witnesses in a war zone.

It's impossible to fully capture the devastation we see every day. We're only about 80 miles from Florida, but the miles of rubble Dorian left in its wake have made this part of the Bahamas feel as remote as any place on Earth.

On August 30, CNN sent the three of us to Freeport, on Grand Bahama, to cover the storm. The trip was so last-minute that we bought many of the staples of hurricane coverage at an airport newsstand: beef jerky, peanut butter and as many water bottles as we could carry.

We had to scramble to catch American Airlines flight 3489 from Miami, which turned out to be the last from the US to Grand Bahama before Dorian hit.

Our first sign that this hurricane was going to be exceptionally dangerous was when a gate agent announced over the intercom that only Grand Bahama residents would be allowed on the flight. All hotels would be closed, he said. If you didn't live there, you would have nowhere to stay.

Then a supervisor walked over and overruled him.

"These are the guys that go stand in the rain on TV," he said, motioning to us. "If you want to risk your lives, go for it."

Cut off from the outside world

The plane was nearly empty. Within minutes we landed in Freeport on a sunny day. With the storm approaching and the airport due to close, the customs agent waved us through with barely a glance.

We squeezed our gear into a rental car and raced to a beach to report live on CNN about the incoming storm.

As we finished for the day, a man and woman strolling down the beach stopped to ask what we were doing. Without a moment's hesitation the couple -- Kristine and her boyfriend Graham -- invited us to ride out the storm with them in their ocean-view apartment.

Late the next night, Dorian began pummeling the Abacos and Grand Bahama as an insanely powerful Category 5 Hurricane. Our weather forecasters told us that if there were a Category 6 ranking, Dorian would qualify.

The storm howled for hours in the darkness. Winds and rain pounded the building from all sides. Daylight finally came, but the sun never showed.

The apartment had a protected balcony, and we were able to continue transmitting throughout the storm even as we lost power and cell service.

We realized the storm surge was flooding the island Sunday night when a group of neighbors banged on the lobby door and begged to come in. Their houses were underwater and most of them had barely made it out with the clothes on their backs. Several had managed to carry their pets. One woman sobbed that she had not been able to find her two cats as the water came in.

A group carried in a soaking wet, elderly woman who had fallen and broken her hip during the rush to escape her home. We brought them towels and shared our supplies as they settled in for the first of several nights on the lobby floor.

One man said he saw his wife drown

On Tuesday, Dorian's winds had subsided enough that we ventured out to survey the damage. Downed power lines and trees were everywhere. A submerged school bus blocked one roadway.

We reached an area called "the bridge" where a hastily organized rescue operation was being mounted to save hundreds of people trapped in their homes.

There we found the bridge itself was underwater and was being used as a ramp to launch Jet Skis and rescue boats into the churning floodwaters. The storm was still blowing with hurricane strength, and volunteers told us several boats had flipped over in the winds.

There was little coordination or organization to the rescue effort, but limitless bravery.

Many evacuees had held onto rafters of their flooded homes for hours, whipped by the wind and the rain. We asked where their houses were but could only make out a few roofs and trees in the distance. There were hundreds of homes there, rescuers told us, we just couldn't see them.

As the rescued evacuees climbed off Jet Skis in the waist-deep water, many collapsed and had to be carried to safety.

"People are exhausted," rescuer Rochenel Daniel told us as the driving winds forced the rescuers to suspend their operations. "Some we had to carry, some couldn't even make it."

As we fled the worsening weather, a wraith of a man in a red rain jacket approached us and whispered, "I've lost my wife."

He said his name was Howard Armstrong, he was a crab fisherman and hours before he had seen his wife, Lynn, slip beneath floodwaters in their home as they awaited rescue. He was covered in bruises.

"My poor little wife got hypothermia and she was standing on top of the cabinets until they disintegrated," he said. "I kept with her and she just drowned on me."

Armstrong said he then swam to his neighbor's house. She was dead, too, he said.

The airport is crippled

The next day we drove to the airport where we had arrived five days before. As we approached we saw a small plane flipped on its side.

One of the terminals was ripped open on all sides. Shrapnel was scattered across the inside of the domestic terminal, and the storm had flung the wing of a plane with such force that it had pierced a wall and lay mangled on the floor.

The other two terminals were still standing but had been underwater for days, and the airport's single runway was littered with debris.

This was the island's only airport. We all realized we were going to be on the island for a while.

Despite no electricity or running water, we coped in Kristine and Graham's apartment as best we could. We slept with all the windows open in the sweltering heat and lugged buckets of water up three flights of stairs from the swimming pool to make the toilets run.

Whatever the challenges, none of us would choose to be anywhere else.

In the days after the storm, Bahamian officials have talked constantly of "assessments." Assessing the port, assessing the airport, assessing the power grid. There has been a lot of assessing but too little action.

The aid that has trickled into Freeport -- the island's largest town -- has improved conditions, but only a little. Cell phone service is back for the most part, some stores are open and you can even get the occasional hot meal and cold beer.

As soon as one leaves Freeport though, those scant privileges vanish.

Residents say the aid they need hasn't come

The only road to the hard-hit east end of the island is still underwater in parts and completely washed away in others.

Apocalyptic rubble lies where houses stood before.

Residents say the storm surge topped 30 feet in some places and tore whole houses off their foundations.

A grim Washington "Smitty" Smith sat in the front yard of the house he built in Bevans Town. Dorian tore the roof off and punched holes through the cement walls. The gas station he owned across the street was also completely destroyed.

"Grand Bahama right now is dead," Smith said, trauma carved into his face.

"One of the hurtful parts about all of this ... is I haven't seen a government official yet to come say, 'Here's a bottle of water' or to see what's going on."

Government assistance has also been slow to reach the town of High Rock, a few miles further down the road.

There, resident Marilyn Laing got tired of waiting for officials to show up and instead organized her own relief system, with water and food delivered by friends and family members.

At least 14 people remain missing from this town of about 300 people. Five others have been confirmed dead, residents say.

One man sat, near-catatonic, on a white plastic chair. Neighbors say three of his family members, a daughter and two grandchildren, were swept away by the surging waters.

A US Coast Guard helicopter hovered over a wooded area nearby, searching for the dead. Residents say that's usually how they know another body has been found.

When the wind picks up, you smell death.

Laing said she has to keep working to help others in her shattered community or the desperation will overcome her.

"I have no words to say how bad," Laing said. "Maybe one in 10 houses is standing."

We lent her our satellite phone so she could contact family to tell them she's alive.

Nearby a man who had lost his house took tiny sips from a bottle of water. He knew he would need to make every drop last.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/world/bahamas-dorian-aftermath-reporters-notebook/index.html

2019-09-09 12:06:00Z
52780364378252

Nearly all British Airways flights canceled as pilots go on strike - CNN

The strike was called by the British Airline Pilots Association (BALPA) amid a heated dispute over pay with the airline.

Nearly 200,000 passengers were due to travel on September 9 and 10, a BA spokesperson told CNN Business.

Why the strike?

Pilots are unhappy with BA's offer of an 11.5% salary increase over three years. They want a greater share of the airline's profit.

Pilots had put forward "detailed proposals" in November 2018 for a profit sharing arrangement that would apply to all airline staff, BALPA general secretary Brian Strutton told the BBC on Monday. Having "shared in the pain" when BA went through bad times, pilots wanted a "fair share" of the profit, Strutton said.

This would be up to 7% of pay in good times and zero when times were tough, he said. It would not involve an increase in base pay.

BA said other labor unions, representing nearly 90% of all BA staff, including engineers, cabin crew and ground staff, had accepted the 11.5% increase.

"The average salary for a BA Captain is £167,000 [$206,000] plus flying allowances. The offer of 11.5% would take the average salary to £202,000," a BA spokesperson said. A first officer earns £90,000 on average, the spokesperson said.

What it means for passengers

Passengers due to fly on September 9 and 10 are highly unlikely to be able to travel as planned. The airline advised them not to go to the airport.

BA said it would offer "as many customers as possible" — including those connecting from flights with other airlines — the option to rebook on other airlines, or have their flights refunded.

Knock-on effects were expected to cause some disruption to flights later this week, a spokesperson said.

BALPA is planning another strike for September 27. The airline said it would contact passengers traveling on that date if their flight is likely to be impacted.

Passengers should keep checking the BA website for updates.

What it means for BA

The cost of the strike would be around £40 million ($49 million) per day, according to BALPA. The three strike days already scheduled would cost in the region of £120 million ($148 million).

The airline said it was forced to cancel so many flights because "with no detail from BALPA on which pilots would strike, we had no way of predicting how many would come to work or which aircraft they are qualified to fly."

Members of the pilots union voted 93% in favor of a strike in July. BALPA said last week that it would be willing to call it off if British Airways returned to the negotiating table.

Anna Stewart contributed to this article.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/business/ba-british-airways-strike-intl-hnk/index.html

2019-09-09 11:17:00Z
52780376030970

Analysis: Why did Donald Trump cancel peace talks with Taliban? - Al Jazeera English

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY73VQLleaY

2019-09-09 10:26:29Z
52780375859632