The coastal city of Stuart, Florida, is starting to feel the effects of Hurricane Dorian, which has stalled 100 miles away above Grand Bahama.
"We are getting the periodic outer rain bands that come in and literally smack us with strong, gusty, tropical storm force winds. Brief, heavy rainfall. And a few flashes of lightning, as well, in the distance, from time to time," said CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam in Stuart.
"There's also been transformers that have blown behind us, as well. We're fortunate to have electricity still at this hotel where we're at."
Weaker also means larger: Stuart is facing the threat of storm surges, flooding, and coastal erosion. Van Dam also warned that though the storm has gotten slightly weaker, going down to a Category 3, it will also get larger as tropical force winds expand from the center.
"As it gets closer and closer to the Florida coastline, it means we'll feel more and more of the winds. The threats there, obviously, gusts that could take down some tree limbs and electrical poles as well," Van Dam said.
HONG KONG — Beleaguered after three months of increasingly violent street protests, Hong Kong’s chief executive said on Tuesday morning that her emotions were in turmoil but that she had not tendered her resignation and had no intention of stepping down.
“Even if my personal emotions are fluctuating greatly, the ultimate decision is in regard to Hong Kong citizens and whether I can help Hong Kong citizens and help Hong Kong out of this difficult situation,” Carrie Lam, the chief executive, said during her weekly news conference.
Senior Hong Kong officials and Beijing advisers have been saying for weeks that Mrs. Lam is deeply unhappy in the job, but that Beijing’s leaders will not allow her to resign even if she decides that she wants to do so.
“She is very frustrated, very downhearted, at times even emotional, but she is also a very resolute person — she feels she has a job to do, she has a job entrusted to her by Beijing, and she intends to do it,” Ronny Tong, a member of Mrs. Lam’s Executive Council, or cabinet, said in an interview in late August.
Lau Siu-kai, vice chairman of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, a semiofficial advisory body set up by Beijing, said: “After things settle down, there may be a reshuffle of the leadership team. But to do it now is seen by Beijing as a sign of weakness that would cause more riots to occur.”
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Protesters protecting themselves from tear gas outside the Central Government Offices in Hong Kong on Saturday. Mrs. Lam has remained a very personal target for demonstrators.CreditLaurel Chor for The New York Times
After a summer of protests that began with huge marches and has evolved into battles in the streets and subway stations between masked protesters and the police, Mrs. Lam has remained a very personal target for demonstrators. They assail her for having introduced a bill earlier this year that would have allowed Hong Kong residents to be extradited to the opaque and often harsh judicial system of mainland China.
One of five demands by protesters has been that Mrs. Lam must resign and that a successor be elected through universal suffrage. In an audio recording of a closed-door meeting last week between Mrs. Lam and local businesspeople that was leaked to Reuters, Mrs. Lam is heard to say that she longed to resign.
But one key obstacle to her doing so is that she lacks an heir apparent to run this fractious, semiautonomous territory of China. Beijing also remains opposed to allowing any general election in which pro-democracy candidates could run.
In the 22 years since Britain returned Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty, China’s leaders have alternated between choosing strongly pro-Beijing business leaders and more politically moderate former British civil servants. Before becoming chief executive two years ago, Mrs. Lam was a lifetime civil servant in Hong Kong, rising to the second-highest job in the territory, which is chief secretary.
That means the pro-Beijing faction, which tends to take a much more hard-line stance against democracy protesters, is due to supply the next chief executive. But numerous people involved in succession discussions over the past month said that the choice is far from simple.
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Paul Chan, Hong Kong’s financial secretary, delivering a speech in February. Mr. Chan had been Beijing’s favorite for next chief executive. Political acrimony and the violence in Hong Kong are said to have hurt his chances.CreditAlex Hofford/EPA, via Shutterstock
All of Hong Kong’s four chief executives so far, including Mrs. Lam, have run into serious political difficulty. That makes it harder to predict whom Beijing might choose next.
Beijing has discouraged the Hong Kong government from accepting outright any of the five broader demands being made by the protesters, although the government has taken small steps toward partially meeting a few of them, Beijing advisers said.
“Things have gone beyond the so-called jurisdiction of the Hong Kong government — even though the whole thing was triggered by Carrie Lam — to become something that must be handled by Beijing,” Mr. Lau said in an interview.
Beijing’s favorite choice and heir apparent until early summer was the city’s financial secretary and third-ranking official, Paul Chan, said people familiar with the selection process. These people insisted on anonymity because of political sensitivities about discussing the subject before Beijing makes a decision.
Mr. Chan is a longtime accountant and the protégé of Leung Chun-ying, the fiercely pro-Beijing real estate surveyor who was Mrs. Lam’s predecessor as chief executive of Hong Kong.
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Mrs. Lam at a news conference last month, flanked by Mr. Chan, right, and Matthew Cheung, left, the chief secretary for administration. Mr. Cheung, Hong Kong’s No.2 official, has not publicly evinced any interest in moving up.CreditJerome Favre/EPA, via Shutterstock
But political acrimony and violence in Hong Kong have severely hurt Mr. Chan’s chances, two people familiar with Beijing’s selection process said. Although skillful in small groups, Mr. Chan is a quiet businessman with limited experience in addressing crowds and the broader public — skills needed now.
Mr. Chan declined repeated requests this summer for an interview.
Another option for Beijing, if it wants a business leader, would seem to be Bernard Chan, the convener of Mrs. Lam’s Executive Council. But Mr. Chan, the president of a Hong Kong insurance company, insists he has no desire to become chief executive.
“I have a business to run,” he said in a telephone interview. “I’m not willing to give up my business.”
If China’s leader, Xi Jinping, does not continue the alternation of business leaders and civil servants in Hong Kong’s top government post, he has at least a half-dozen current and former civil servants among whom to choose.
Two of the former chief executives have been former chief secretaries: Mrs. Lam and Donald Tsang. But the current chief secretary, Matthew Cheung, an avuncular 68-year-old who is approaching retirement, has not publicly evinced any interest in moving up.
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Regina Ip, leader of the pro-Beijing New People’s Party. In 2003, Mrs. Ip helped lead an unsuccessful effort to pass legislation that would have allowed warrantless police searches during some emergencies.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times
Mr. Cheung declined to be interviewed. His office emailed a short statement when asked this summer about his political future: “We do not reply to speculative questions,” it said, adding that Mr. Cheung “is fully and wholeheartedly committed, as ever, to serving the people of Hong Kong and propelling vibrant Hong Kong forward.”
If Mrs. Lam were allowed by Beijing to step down, Mr. Cheung would become the caretaker chief executive. If she stepped down with more than six months remaining in her term, which runs through the end of June 2022, then a successor would be chosen to serve the remainder of her term.
The same nearly 1,200 people who chose Mrs. Lam in 2017 would gather and vote on a candidate, and the winner would be appointed by Mr. Xi to run Hong Kong. The 1,200-member commission is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians.
Emily Lau, a former chairman of Hong Kong’s Democratic Party, said that democracy advocates hoped Beijing might choose Edward Yau, who is Hong Kong’s secretary of commerce and economic development and previously served as secretary of the environment. Asked whether he might want the job, Mr. Yau responded with an emphatic “No!”
He explained that he loved the civil service and saw himself as an administrator.
Several other former Hong Kong government officials have had high approval ratings over the years in polls by Hong Kong University, including Henry Tang, a former chief secretary, and John Tsang, a former financial secretary. Another possibility would be Norman Chan, who is retiring this autumn after a decade as chief executive of Hong Kong’s central bank.
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China’s leader, Xi Jinping, right, presiding over the inauguration ceremony for Mrs. Lam, second from right, and her executive council in 2017.CreditJerome Favre/European Pressphoto Agency
But these former government officials may not have enough connections in Beijing to be chosen. Mr. Tang, who is mentioned the most often among them as a possible successor, and who unsuccessfully sought to become chief executive in 2012, said through a spokesman that he supported Mrs. Lam and had no intention of seeking the post again.
That leaves Regina Ip. She leads a pro-Beijing party, the New People’s Party, that is popular with staunch advocates of law and order.
Mrs. Ip is one of the very few pro-Beijing politicians who has been able to win a seat in the legislature in general elections, instead of being named by an industry or other special interest group. She is also a former senior civil servant with broad experience.
But as secretary for security in 2003, Mrs. Ip helped lead an unsuccessful effort to pass stringent legislation that would have allowed warrantless police searches during security emergencies and would have authorized the shuttering of news organizations deemed seditious.
In a recent interview, Mrs. Ip said that Hong Kong needs social and economic reforms. But she contended that rapid progress on universal suffrage is not possible under Hong Kong’s mini-Constitution — a position that democracy activists strongly dispute. She declined to discuss her political ambitions.
Bonnie Leung, the vice convener of the Civil Human Rights Front, said that if Beijing selects Mrs. Ip, that might help democracy activists gather even larger crowds out of worry that she would introduce further security legislation.
But Ms. Leung said that Mrs. Ip’s legislative experience might also make her more responsive to public sentiment than any of the alternatives.
“After what happened in 2003, I believe she learned a lesson,” Ms. Leung said. “She would react more sensibly to people’s voices.”
Lacking a clear successor makes it even harder for Mrs. Lam to step down.
“I have not even contemplated to discuss a resignation with the Central People’s Government,” Mrs. Lam said on Tuesday, referring to China’s national government in Beijing. “The choice of not resigning is my own choice.”
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivers a speech at 10 Downing Street on September 2, 2019 in London, England.
Chris J Ratcliffe | Getty Images
Sterling fell below $1.20 on Tuesday morning, reaching levels not seen since October 2016 as Britain's constitutional crisis over Brexit threatens to come to a head.
At around 8:00 a.m. on Tuesday, sterling was trading as low as $1.1968, its lowest since a "flash crash" in October 2016. The brief crash saw the pound fall 6% in a matter of minutes during Asian trading hours to $1.1491, confounding market participants.
While no single factor caused the sudden nosedive in late 2016, an official report from the Bank for International Settlements concluded that it was caused by a combination of headline-sensitive algorithmic trading, inexperienced traders and a lack of active market participants given the time of day.
Brexit showdown
U.K. lawmakers return from summer recess on Tuesday afternoon, with a cross-party group of lawmakers expected to apply for an emergency debate and seize control of the agenda of the House of Commons, in a first effort to stop a no-deal Brexit.
This would be subject to a vote, which if passed, would tie Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hands ahead of the suspension of parliament from September 9 until October 14.
Johnson has vowed to leave the European Union on October 31 with or without a deal in place, and reiterated this pledge in a speech Monday evening. He also insisted that the chances of striking a new withdrawal agreement have increased.
However, government officials have said that if parliament votes in favor of the opposition's amendment to the terms of emergency debate in order to allow it to go ahead, the prime minister will call a snap general election for October 14.
In order for the vote to pass, a number of rebel lawmakers from within Johnson's ruling Conservative Party must flout his orders and join forces with the opposition, with several indicating already that they plan to do so. The prime minister has this week threatened to expel Conservative lawmakers who vote against him.
A "no-deal" Brexit is widely seen as a "cliff-edge" scenario to be avoided at all costs, resulting in Britain leaving the bloc with no transition period for legal and trading arrangements. Such an event is expected to cause food and medicine shortages along with significant border and travel disruption, according to the government's own contingency plans.
Correction: This story has been updated to show that sterling was trading as low as $1.1968 at around 8:00 a.m. London time on Tuesday.
Hurricane Dorian, the unpredictable monster of a storm that has pummeled parts of the Bahamas for the past 24 hours, has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm as it remains in a standstill near Grand Bahama.
The National Hurricane Center said in a news release at 1 a.m. ET, that the storm is continuing to produce wind gusts of up to 155 mph and a storm surge of 18 feet. The storm’s current movement is considered stationary.
Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said at least five people were killed and dozens were injured. The storm has continued to impact the islands so it is difficult to determine the extent of damage, which will likely be historic.
Officials in the Bahamas have reported more than 2,000 distress messages, including reports of a 5-month-old baby stranded on a roof.
Dorian unleashed massive flooding across the Bahamas on Monday, pummeling the islands with so much wind and water that officials urged people to find floatation devices and grab hammers to break out of their attics if necessary.
Residents in Florida have been trying to track the slow-moving storm as it sits about 100 miles off West Palm Beach. There have been signs that the storm will make a northern turn, according to the Miami Herald.
Derek Giardino of the National Weather Service said the probabilities of Dorian making a direct hit on the state’s landfall has diminished, but “is not completely ruled out.”
Boris Johnson is considering seeking an early general election if MPs seeking to block a no-deal Brexit defeat the government this week.
The BBC understands "live discussions" are going on in No 10 about asking Parliament to approve a snap poll.
Political editor Laura Kuenssberg said it could happen as soon as Wednesday but no final decision had been taken.
Tory ex-ministers are joining forces with Labour to stop the UK leaving the EU on 31 October without a deal.
Amid mounting speculation about an election, Mr Johnson is due to hold an unscheduled cabinet meeting at 17.00 BST on Monday and will also speak to Conservative MPs.
The prime minister has said the UK must leave the EU on 31 October, with or without a deal, prompting a number of MPs to unite to try to prevent the UK leaving without an agreement.
They are expected to put forward legislation on Tuesday to stop no deal under "SO24" or Standing Order 24 - the rule allowing MPs to ask for a debate on a "specific and important matter that should have urgent consideration".
Tory rebels have been warned those who support the move would be expelled from the party and deselected.
A No 10 spokesman said it was treating this week's Brexit votes as an issue of confidence, which traditionally trigger a general election if the government loses.
But leading figures, including ex-cabinet minister David Gauke, have insisted that despite the threat of expulsion, they will press ahead with efforts to pass legislation requiring the PM to seek another Brexit extension if he cannot get a deal.
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There is not scheduled to be another general election until 2022.
Under the terms of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act, Mr Johnson would require the backing of two-thirds of the UK's 650 MPs to trigger an early poll this autumn.
Should this happen, the prime minister would be able to recommend the date of the poll - likely to be a hugely contentious issue - to the Queen.
If Parliament were dissolved on Friday then the earliest possible date for an election would be Friday 11 October. With polls normally taking place on a Thursday, 17 October is potentially the more likely earliest opportunity.
