Jumat, 30 Agustus 2019
Arrests of high-profile Hong Kong activists a bid to spread 'white terror' - Guardian News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8cOx4qIfAM
2019-08-30 08:23:32Z
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Hurricane Dorian path map: Latest euro model, NOAA charts and spaghetti models - Express.co.uk
Hurricane Dorian has already battered the US Virgin Islands and is now churning through the Atlantic Ocean towards the US state of Florida. The horrifying weather system is whipping out maximum sustained winds of 105mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale. Dorian is forecast to further strengthen and develop into a major Category 3 hurricane later on Friday. Hurricane warnings could be issued today.
Hurricane Dorian is expected to be on Florida’s doorstop on Monday morning, but weather models are showing very different tracks for the hurricane.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Dorian continues northwestward, and while the forecast for the next 24 hours is fairly high, it turns uncertain.
NOAA said: "As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane.
"There's been a notable trend on this model cycle toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance."
READ MORE: Hurricane Dorian tracker: Category 3 hurricane could smash Florida
However, the GFS model keeps Dorian off the Floridian coast, perhaps making landfall further north in Jacksonville.
The model even suggests that Dorian could ride up the coastline, not making landfall in Florida at all.
Accuweather reports: “At this point, there is the likelihood of stormy conditions with heavy rain and gusty winds that push northwestward across part of the Florida Peninsula beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday night.
The weather service added: “Flooding downpours and power outages are possible.”
READ MORE: Storm Dorian track: Risk of hurricane storm surge in Florida increases
Another tracker, the Euro model, sees the hurricane making landfall in southeastern Florida, perhaps close to Fort Lauderdale.
Following this, Dorian will head west, affecting areas from the coast of Sarasota.
“Should Dorian remain over land for the duration after reaching Florida, the system will slowly weaken and rain itself out over the southeastern corner of the US during Labor Day and beyond”, AccuWeather said.
The key message from NHC is the risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend.
This risk continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along Florida’s east coast, although it is too soon to determine exactly where these hazards will occur.
NHC warned: “Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian’s centre.”
With lower shear and very warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
Dorian is likely to reach major hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to maintain that status until it reaches land.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1171434/hurricane-dorian-path-map-latest-euro-model-gfs-noaa-chart-spaghetti-model-nhc
2019-08-30 07:05:17Z
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Hong Kong Police Holds Briefing After Three Protest Activists Arrested - Bloomberg
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- Hong Kong Police Holds Briefing After Three Protest Activists Arrested Bloomberg
- 3 Hong Kong Protest Leaders Arrested Bloomberg Politics
- Joshua Wong arrested: Hong Kong pro-democracy activist BBC News
- Joshua Wong and other Hong Kong pro-democracy leaders arrested ahead of rally CNN
- Hong Kong Democracy Activists Arrested Ahead Of Planned March NPR
- View full coverage on Google News
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2019-08-30/hong-kong-police-holds-briefing-after-three-protest-activists-arrested
2019-08-30 06:58:00Z
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What’s Next for Brexit? Six Possible Outcomes - The New York Times
LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament next month has brought a fresh wave of consternation and confusion to Britain’s already chaotic efforts to leave the European Union, while still leaving wide open the question of where Britain will end up on Oct. 31., the day the country is scheduled to leave the bloc.
Mr. Johnson says he would rather Britain leave with a reworked Brexit deal but, failing that, it would be out the door anyway. His opponents have sworn to remove any possibility of leaving without a deal, which they say would be economically calamitous.
Adding to the confusion, what happens next depends not just on the battle between the prime minister and his opponents in Parliament, but also on the flexibility of the so-far unyielding European Union leadership and, down the line, quite possibly on a British court.
Following are six of the most likely outcomes leading up to Oct. 31.
1: Lawmakers Take Charge
Members of Parliament don’t agree about much on Brexit, but a majority oppose what they consider a destructive “no-deal” departure and would like to rule it out of bounds. By suspending Parliament for several crucial weeks, Mr. Johnson has made this hard. But he has also galvanized his opponents into action, and Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, hinted in a BBC interview that they may copy Mr. Johnson in using an arcane procedure — she did not specify what — to stop a “no-deal” Brexit. So don’t count them out quite yet.
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2: Parliament’s Nuclear Option
If they fail to legislate against a no-deal Brexit, lawmakers can resort to the ultimate weapon: a motion of no confidence, ousting Mr. Johnson from office. Currently, they do not appear to have the votes to pull this off. But even if they did, it might not solve their problem.
The law calls for the formation of a new government within two weeks or a general election. One option might be a caretaker administration that would presumably request another Brexit delay to afford time to hold an election. The problem is opposition leaders cannot agree on a caretaker prime minister. Jeremy Corbyn, the natural choice as leader of the Labour Party, is too left-wing, and as a lifelong critic of the European Union, is distrusted by determined opponents of Brexit.
Many would prefer a more centrist figure — perhaps the former Conservative cabinet minister Kenneth Clarke — as the caretaker. That would require Mr. Corbyn agreeing to stand aside, because a no-confidence motion could not succeed without his support.
And even if it did, Mr. Johnson has another trick up his sleeve, one that his supporters have repeatedly telegraphed: He could refuse to resign and then schedule a general election for November, in effect forcing through a no-deal Brexit. Dirty pool, perhaps, it would leave deep scars in the body politic. But there is nothing in the relevant law, the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, requiring the prime minister to step down immediately.
3: A Snap Election
If lawmakers should succeed in quickly passing legislation outlawing a no-deal Brexit before Parliament is suspended, Mr. Johnson could try to outflank them again by calling a general election. This would be risky, but he needs to hold one soon anyway because he has a working majority in Parliament of just one seat, a margin far too small for comfort for any government. If there is an election soon, Mr. Johnson is likely to run as a champion of the people against a Parliament intent on obstructing the pro-Brexit outcome of the 2016 referendum. One theory is that the election could take place on Oct. 17, allowing Mr. Johnson — if he wins — to go to the European Union summit the following day with a fresh mandate.
But there could be a significant roadblock. To call an election, Mr. Johnson would need the support of two-thirds of the House of Commons, so he would need opposition votes. The Labour Party wants an election, but might demur if it thinks that, instead of a quick vote, Mr. Johnson wants to delay it until after the Brexit deadline.
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4: Leaving the E.U. With a Deal
No one seems to think this option has much chance. After all, Parliament voted three times against a Brexit agreement negotiated by Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, and the European Union is stubbornly refusing to reopen negotiations. But don’t rule it out.
The critical date is Oct. 17-18, when the bloc’s leaders meet, providing an opportunity for last-minute negotiations (which is practically the only way things get done there). If a potentially disastrous no-deal Brexit is still a possibility, Mr. Johnson can put a gun to the heads of European leaders to get a revised deal, then put the gun to the heads of his lawmakers to get the measure passed. “Either accept my new, revised, Brexit agreement,” he will say, or we are headed for the dreaded no-deal exit.
5: A No-Deal Brexit
While it is widely thought that Mr. Johnson is using the threat of an unruly exit as a negotiating tactic, it is also possible that he actually means what he says. If European leaders offer too few concessions for his liking, he might plow ahead with a no-deal exit and, given the limited parliamentary time to stop it, he might succeed. It is, after all, the default option. That would allow Mr. Johnson to unite Brexit supporters behind him in a general election either late in 2019 or in 2020. The risk, however, is that the predictions of economic chaos after a no-deal Brexit are borne out, making an election unwinnable for him (and, if things are bad enough, possibly for the Conservative Party for years to come).
6: The Courts Decide
There are already three cases being considered against Mr. Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament. Experts think these are unlikely to succeed — though Gina Miller, an anti-Brexit campaigner, defied such predictions when she won a case against Mrs. May’s efforts to bypass Parliament when starting exit talks. She is trying again now.
But there may be other opportunities to go to court. If Mr. Johnson refuses to resign after losing a vote of confidence and tries to push a general election beyond the Halloween deadline, a legal challenge would be likely. Then it could be judges, not lawmakers, who have the decisive voice in Britain’s biggest peacetime decision in decades.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/brexit-scenarios-boris-johnson.html
2019-08-30 06:00:00Z
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Kamis, 29 Agustus 2019
China deploys fresh troops to Hong Kong - Fox News
China's military deployed fresh troops to Hong Kong on Thursday in what it called a routine rotation amid speculation that it might intervene in the city's pro-democracy protests.
Video broadcast on China Central Television showed a long convoy of armored personnel carriers and trucks crossing the border at night and troops in formation disembarking from a ship. Earlier, scores of soldiers ran in unison onto trucks, which the state broadcaster said were bound for ports and entry points into Hong Kong. A handover ceremony was held before dawn.
"This time the task has a glorious mission. The responsibility is great. The job is difficult," an unnamed major said to troops before they departed. "The time for a true test has arrived!"
The official Xinhua News Agency said it was the 22nd rotation of the People's Liberation Army's garrison in Hong Kong. The previous one was in August 2018.
Nearly three months of fiery anti-government demonstrations have sparked concerns that the military will be deployed in the semi-autonomous Chinese city. The Hong Kong garrison earlier published a promotional video with scenes of soldiers facing off with people dressed like protesters.
HONG KONG PROTEST ESCALATION: TEAR GAS, WATER CANNONS AND A POLICE OFFICER FIRING A WARNING SHOT
Armored personnel carriers of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) pass through the Huanggang Port border between China and Hong Kong, Thursday, Aug. 29, 2019. (Xinhua via AP)
Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang told reporters in Beijing on Thursday that the demonstrators must abide by Hong Kong's laws.
A leader of 2014 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong said the city's government is using the same tactics as five years ago.
"The government is just trying to threaten people with emergency law, with the entrance of the People's Liberation Army," Yvonne Leung said at a news conference.
A former British colony, Hong Kong was returned to China in 1997 under a "one country, two systems" framework, which promises the city certain democratic rights that are not afforded to the mainland. In recent years, however, some Hong Kong residents have accused Beijing of steadily eroding their freedoms.
BRITISH HONG KONG CONSULATE EMPLOYEE RELEASED FROM DETENTION
Chinese state media has published photos of the country's Hong Kong-based troops' armored carriers and a patrol boat undertaking what they call a routine rotation. (Xinhua via AP)
The newly arrived Chinese troops have been educated on Hong Kong's laws and vowed to defend the nation's sovereignty, Xinhua said.
"We will firmly implement the guideline of 'one country, two systems' and the Basic Law and the Garrison Law of Hong Kong," Liu Zhaohui, the garrison's deputy chief of staff, said on CCTV.
The Garrison Law allows the Hong Kong-stationed troops to help maintain public order at the request of the city government. That has never happened, and Hong Kong authorities have said they can handle the situation themselves.
Troops stationed in Macao, another special administrative region, also completed a rotation Thursday.
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The Xinhua report on the previous rotation in August 2018 did not mention "one country, two systems" or national sovereignty.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-deploys-fresh-troops-hong-kong
2019-08-29 11:40:39Z
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How Giuseppe Conte of Italy Went From Irrelevant to Irreplaceable - The New York Times
After 14 months of being ignored, mocked and yanked around by his deputies in Italy’s nationalist-populist government, the departing prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, used his resignation speech last week as a last-ditch audition — filled with previously unseen flashes of gravitas and steel — for the leading role in the government to come.
On Thursday, Mr. Conte got the part.
Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, gave the little-known lawyer turned political power broker the task of forming a sequel, but drastically different, government known as Conte II. (“Conte Reloaded,” preferred the conservative daily Il Giornale.)
Mr. Conte will now begin meetings with all party leaders and is expected next week to submit to Mr. Mattarella a cabinet that, if approved, will then be brought to parliament for a confidence vote.
[A new government takes shape in Italy, sidelining Matteo Salvini]
In accepting the mandate, Mr. Conte said on Thursday that he wanted to win back lost time “to allow Italy, a founding member of the European Union, to rise again as a protagonist” and “transform this moment of crisis into an opportunity.”
He acknowledged that he had entertained “doubts” about taking on a reconstituted government after the last one collapsed, but said he “overcame this perplexity” out of a responsibility to serve Italy’s interests.
In taking on “this political project,” he said, he did not represent a single party, but the interests of all Italians, something he said Italians had come to appreciate.
A week after the collapse of his last government, a nationalist-populist alliance between the anti-migrant League party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, Mr. Conte will preside over a populist/anti-populist coalition between Five Star and the center-left Democratic Party.
The joining of two parties that have called each other every name in the book, including Mafiosi and kidnappers, internet trolls and hatemongers, was remarkable.
But so was the resuscitation of Mr. Conte, who hardly seemed to matter through much of the last government, where he was overshadowed by the hard-right leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, ostensibly his deputy.
Mr. Conte once even called a news conference to remind the country that he was the prime minister.
“I’m not here just to scrape by or drift,” he said at that June conference, adding, “I can and want to do more.”
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Now he will have an opportunity, as the European establishment is hoping, to help Italy heal its rifts in the European Union, rediscover a modicum of financial responsibility and return to the table of European leaders.
Mr. Conte, fond of pocket kerchiefs and purple ties, is studiously dapper even when discussing legislation with a man in his underwear on a Naples balcony. His florid vocabulary — he has casually dropped words like logomachy — sounds official without actually saying much. In time, he has overcome a delivery and facial expressions that seemed marked by fear and indigestion.
“He’s a minor figure who managed to carve out a role for himself,” said Donatella Di Cesare, a professor of political philosophy at La Sapienza University in Rome.
“He had no history,” she added, which helped him fit into the part of an institutional administrator who could give the harshly euroskeptic, populist and anti-migrant government a more amenable face. The parties chose him, she said, because he was “someone who played the role.”
Newspaper headlines on Thursday expressed admiration for his transformation. “He went from yes man to the lord of politics,” read La Stampa. “A quasi-leader who put bullies in their place,” read La Repubblica. “A Portrait of a Puppet Who Became Prime Minister,” read il Foglio.
And he has made friends in high places.
During a side-by-side news conference at the White House in July 2018, President Trump introduced Mr. Conte as “my new friend” and on Tuesday came through for him, endorsing him in a tweet, albeit one that spelled Mr. Conte’s name wrong. (Mr. Trump called him Giuseppi.)
That vote of confidence was invoked on Wednesday night by Five Star’s political leader, Luigi Di Maio. “The endorsement from Donald Trump made us understand that we are on the right track,” he said in announcing the agreement with the Democratic Party to bring Mr. Conte back.
At the 2018 news conference, Mr. Trump stressed that he and Mr. Conte had a lot in common. In one sense, he had a point.
“Like the United States, Italy is currently under enormous strain as a result of illegal immigration. And they fought it hard,” Mr. Trump said. “And the prime minister, frankly, is with us today because of illegal immigration.”
It was a backlash to the migrant crisis, and the promised crackdown by the League and the more subtle anti-migrant messaging of the populist Five Star movement, that resulted in their election.
If Mr. Conte never seemed entirely at ease with the harsh anti-migrant policies, at times asking Mr. Salvini to at least let women and children off stranded ships, he never stood up to him and signed off on the toughest anti-migrant legislation.
His greatest concerns seemed to be about the political damage Mr. Salvini wrought on the Five Star Movement, with which he was clearly aligned. In December, an Italian television program caught Mr. Conte appealing in so-so English to Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany at the coffee bar of an international meeting for pointers on how Five Star could stop Mr. Salvini’s electoral juggernaut.
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“We have made polls and they are worrying, because Salvini is at 35, 36 percent,” he told Ms. Merkel. She nodded politely.
Before the election in March 2018 that brought Five Star to power, its leaders introduced him as a potential minister in a Five Star government. When they needed the support of another party to govern and turned to the League, the two parties settled on Mr. Conte as a consensus prime minister.
He had a rough start. His rollout was complicated by the discovery that he inflated his résumé. Only last year he seemed unsure of his job security when, while acting as prime minister, he was caught planning to take part in an English proficiency exam for a teaching job at a Rome university.
In his first weeks on the job, he was caught in Parliament asking Mr. Di Maio, technically his deputy, if he was allowed to say something.
But it was Mr. Di Maio he ended up eclipsing.
In Mr. Conte’s resignation speech last week, as he lambasted Mr. Salvini, seated to his right, as a dangerous, authoritarian, disloyal opportunist who cared more about his own political success than the country, Mr. Di Maio, seated on Mr. Conte’s left, brimmed with visible delight.
Mr. Di Maio, his own poll numbers cratering, had sought to elevate Mr. Conte over the past year as a counterbalance to Mr. Salvini. Even Mr. Salvini’s social media gurus admired Mr. Conte’s increased popularity, which they attributed to his institutional bearing.
At first, the Democratic Party insisted on a clean break with the previous government. But the insistence of the Five Star Movement on Mr. Conte, and Mr. Conte’s track record of not mattering much, made it easy for the Democratic Party’s negotiators to accept him as a condition of an alliance that would bring them back to power.
And in negotiations over the past week, the Democratic Party infuriated Mr. Di Maio by making it clear that it now naturally considered Mr. Conte as its chief interlocutor and the Five Star Party leader, despite his lack of official membership.
Mr. Di Maio, whose previous job experience consisted largely of working as an usher at a soccer stadium, was again forced to search for a job in the government while support for Mr. Conte came from the party’s highest authority.
Beppe Grillo, a founder of the Five Star Movement and one of its power brokers, wrote on his blog Tuesday that God had personally given him a message to send to Mr. Conte. In the post, which Mr. Grillo signed as God, he made it clear that Mr. Conte was the chosen one.
“Am I wrong,” he wrote, “or one of the biggest fears in Italy today is that you get back in the playing field, Mr. Giuseppe?”
Even Mr. Di Maio had to exalt the once-and-future leader.
“A great interpreter of this new humanism, how he himself likes to call it,” Mr. Di Maio said through a gritted smile on Wednesday night. “A man of great courage, who has demonstrated his will to serve the country with a spirit of self-sacrifice and abnegation.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/world/europe/italy-conte-government-salvini.html
2019-08-29 10:30:00Z
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Ruth Davidson QUITS as Boris Johnson plans to prorogue parliament - The Sun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-fh7WpQVk0
2019-08-29 10:29:17Z
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