Selasa, 18 Juni 2019

Hong Kong’s Leader Publicly Apologizes for Extradition Bill - The New York Times

HONG KONG — Backpedaling under mounting pressure, Hong Kong’s top leader publicly apologized on Tuesday for having proposed contentious legislation that would allow extraditions to mainland China.

“I offer my most sincere apology to all people of Hong Kong,” the leader, Carrie Lam, said at a news conference at government headquarters.

“I’ve still got much to learn and do in better balancing diverse interests, in listening more to all walks of life in taking our society forward,” she added.

Mrs. Lam, who had already announced the extradition bill’s indefinite suspension, did not concede to protesters’ demands that it be withdrawn entirely. But she said that as long as there were public disputes over its contents, legislative work on it would not be resumed.

She also said that she would not resign as Hong Kong’s chief executive, but acknowledged that “as for my governance in the future, it will be difficult.”

Mrs. Lam was trying to strike a difficult balance on Tuesday, showing contrition to protesters without further giving in to their demands. She avoided antagonizing the Chinese leaders who appointed her by taking the blame for the legislation herself, not mentioning Beijing’s support for it. She also tried to express concern for injured protesters without undercutting the Hong Kong police, whose use of force has added to public anger.

About 100 people gathered on Tuesday outside the offices of the central government and listened as Mrs. Lam’s words boomed from a loudspeaker. Many booed as she spoke.

Samuel Chan, an electronics trader, said he did not believe Mrs. Lam was listening to the protesters.

Image
As many as two million people marched in Hong Kong on Sunday, according to organizers. Though the extradition bill has been suspended, protesters say it should be fully withdrawn.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

“They are just responding to the issue according to a government mind-set,” said Mr. Chan, 56. “Not the people’s will.”

Mrs. Lam faces broad public anger following three large-scale demonstrations over the past 10 days by protesters fearful that the extradition bill would encroach on their civil liberties. Even after her announcement on Saturday that the legislation was being suspended indefinitely, protesters turned out the next day in larger numbers than ever, with organizers providing an unverified estimate of close to two million of the territory’s seven million residents.

The extradition bill would make it easier for Hong Kong, a semiautonomous Chinese territory, to send people suspected of crimes to jurisdictions with which it does not have extradition agreements. That would include mainland China, where the judicial system is notoriously opaque and under the tight control of the ruling Communist Party.

Opponents worry that if the bill were to become law, anyone in the city could potentially be sent to the mainland, including dissidents.

Sunday evening, the Hong Kong government responded to the march with a conciliatory written statement that ended with a rare apology from Mrs. Lam, who is known for almost never backing down in a fight.

Neither that apology nor the one on Tuesday was enough to satisfy Mrs. Lam’s critics, many of whom have called for her to withdraw the bill outright and resign. As long as it is merely suspended, experts say, the approval process could be quickly restarted at any time in the Hong Kong legislature, which is controlled by pro-Beijing lawmakers.

The Civil Human Rights Front, one of the broader groups that helped organize the recent protests, said on Tuesday evening that it still wanted Mrs. Lam to resign.

A bigger priority for the group, however, is that the government drop all charges against those who were arrested during the protests.

The police have arrested at least 32 people since Wednesday, when a demonstration outside the Hong Kong legislature turned violent. A group of protesters attempting to storm the building threw umbrellas and other objects at the police, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.

Image
Protesters outside Mrs. Lam’s office on Monday. They have demanded her resignation.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

The Hong Kong police commissioner, Lo Wai-chung, said on Monday that the government would pursue rioting charges against five people accused of being involved in the violence. Protesters had objected to his earlier characterization of the Wednesday protest as a riot.

On Tuesday, Mrs. Lam did not elaborate on Mr. Lo’s remarks except to say that those who protested peacefully would not face legal action.

Her remarks represented the clearest apology for a major public initiative by any chief executive of Hong Kong since Britain returned sovereignty over the territory to China in 1997. Tung Chee-hwa, the territory’s first chief executive, did not apologize in 2003 when he shelved Beijing-backed national security legislation that would have allowed warrantless police searches and the closing of newspapers deemed seditious.

The extradition fight has been compared to the one under Mr. Tung, who stayed in office for 21 more months but did not finish his term. Those who say Ms. Lam should resign are not willing to wait that long.

“Carrie has apologized but refuses to budge on withdrawing the bill and resigning,” Anson Chan, a democracy advocate who was Hong Kong’s second-highest official until her retirement in 2001, said on Tuesday. “It seems every concession has to be dragged out of her.”

Some democracy activists are quietly nervous about the possibility of a resignation by Mrs. Lam, a lifelong civil servant, because her political heir apparent, Paul Chan, has a reputation for being even more strongly pro-Beijing.

Others are adamant that Mrs. Lam step down. They contend that the Hong Kong public should press for full and free elections rather than accept the current system, in which a pro-Beijing committee of fewer than 1,200 people selects the chief executive.

Protesters made similar demands for open elections five years ago, when they occupied major roadways for almost three months in what is known as the Umbrella Movement. While that movement did not achieve its short-term objectives, it had a major influence on this year’s anti-extradition protests.

Emily Lau, a former chairwoman of the Democratic Party who is still an influential voice on democracy issues, said the politics of Mr. Chan, the financial secretary, should not deter critics from calling for Mrs. Lam’s resignation.

“It would be a disaster to have him as chief executive,” Ms. Lau said. “But we should not say, ‘Because we don’t want Paul Chan, maybe Carrie should stay.’”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/world/asia/hong-kong-carrie-lam-apology.html

2019-06-18 10:36:53Z
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Hong Kong’s Leader Publicly Apologizes for Extradition Bill - The New York Times

HONG KONG — Backpedaling under mounting pressure, Hong Kong’s top leader publicly apologized on Tuesday for having proposed contentious legislation that would allow extraditions to mainland China.

“I would like to tender my sincere apologies to the citizens of Hong Kong,” the leader, Carrie Lam, said at a news conference at government headquarters. “I have come to understand I could have done better, I should have done a better job.”

Mrs. Lam, who had already announced the extradition bill’s indefinite suspension, did not concede to protesters’ demands that it be withdrawn entirely. But she said that as long as there were public disputes over its contents, legislative work on it would not be resumed.

She also said that she would not resign as Hong Kong’s chief executive, but acknowledged that “as for my governance in the future, it will be difficult.”

Mrs. Lam was trying to strike a difficult balance on Tuesday, showing contrition to protesters without further giving in to their demands. She avoided antagonizing the Chinese leaders who appointed her by taking the blame for the legislation herself, not mentioning Beijing’s support for it. She also tried to express concern for injured protesters without undercutting the Hong Kong police, whose use of force has added to public anger.

About 100 people gathered on Tuesday outside the offices of the central government and listened as Mrs. Lam’s words boomed from a loudspeaker. Many booed as she spoke.

Samuel Chan, an electronics trader, said he did not believe Mrs. Lam was listening to the protesters.

“They are just responding to the issue according to a government mind-set,” said Mr. Chan, 56. “Not the people’s will.”

Image
As many as two million people marched in Hong Kong on Sunday, according to organizers. Though the extradition bill has been suspended, protesters say it should be fully withdrawn.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

Mrs. Lam faces broad public anger following three large-scale demonstrations over the past 10 days by protesters fearful that the extradition bill would encroach on their civil liberties. Even after her announcement on Saturday that the legislation was being suspended indefinitely, protesters turned out the next day in larger numbers than ever, with organizers providing an unverified estimate of close to two million of the territory’s seven million residents.

The extradition bill would make it easier for Hong Kong, a semiautonomous Chinese territory, to send people suspected of crimes to jurisdictions with which it does not have extradition agreements. That would include mainland China, where the judicial system is notoriously opaque and under the tight control of the ruling Communist Party.

Opponents worry that if the bill were to become law, anyone in the city could potentially be sent to the mainland, including dissidents.

Sunday evening, the Hong Kong government responded to the march with a conciliatory written statement that ended with a rare apology from Mrs. Lam, who is known for almost never backing down in a fight.

That was not enough to satisfy Mrs. Lam’s critics, many of whom have called for her to withdraw the bill outright and resign. As long as it is merely suspended, experts say, it could be reintroduced at any time in the Hong Kong legislature, which is controlled by pro-Beijing lawmakers.

The Civil Human Rights Front, one of the broader groups that helped organize the recent protests, said in a statement late Monday that it still wanted Mrs. Lam to resign.

A bigger priority for the group, however, is that the government drop all charges against those who were arrested during the protests.

The police have arrested at least 32 people since Wednesday, when a demonstration outside the Hong Kong legislature turned violent. A group of protesters attempting to storm the building threw umbrellas and other objects at the police, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.

The Hong Kong police commissioner, Lo Wai-chung, said on Monday that the government would pursue rioting charges against five people accused of being involved in the violence. Protesters had objected to his earlier characterization of the Wednesday protest as a riot.

Image
Protesters outside Mrs. Lam’s office on Monday. They have demanded her resignation.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

On Tuesday, Mrs. Lam did not elaborate on Mr. Lo’s remarks except to say that those who protested peacefully would not face legal action.

Her remarks represented the clearest apology for a major public initiative by any chief executive of Hong Kong since Britain returned sovereignty over the territory to China in 1997. Tung Chee-hwa, the territory’s first chief executive, did not apologize in 2003 when he shelved Beijing-backed national security legislation that would have allowed warrantless police searches and the closing of newspapers deemed seditious.

The extradition fight has been compared to the one under Mr. Tung, who stayed in office for 21 more months but did not finish his term. Those who say Ms. Lam should resign are not willing to wait that long.

“Carrie has apologized but refuses to budge on withdrawing the bill and resigning,” Anson Chan, a democracy advocate who was Hong Kong’s second-highest official until her retirement in 2001, said on Tuesday. “It seems every concession has to be dragged out of her.”

Some democracy activists are quietly nervous about the possibility of a resignation by Mrs. Lam, a lifelong civil servant, because her political heir apparent, Paul Chan, has a reputation for being even more strongly pro-Beijing.

Others are adamant that Mrs. Lam step down. They contend that the Hong Kong public should press for full and free elections rather than accept the current system, in which a pro-Beijing committee of fewer than 1,200 people selects the chief executive.

Protesters made similar demands for open elections five years ago, when they occupied major roadways for almost three months in what is known as the Umbrella Movement. While that movement did not achieve its short-term objectives, it had a major influence on this year’s anti-extradition protests.

Emily Lau, a former chairwoman of the Democratic Party who is still an influential voice on democracy issues, said the politics of Mr. Chan, the financial secretary, should not deter critics from calling for Mrs. Lam’s resignation.

“It would be a disaster to have him as chief executive,” Ms. Lau said. “But we should not say, ‘Because we don’t want Paul Chan, maybe Carrie should stay.’”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/world/asia/hong-kong-carrie-lam-apology.html

2019-06-18 10:30:00Z
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Hong Kong’s Leader Publicly Apologizes for Extradition Bill - The New York Times

HONG KONG — Backpedaling under mounting public pressure, Hong Kong’s top leader publicly apologized on Tuesday for having proposed contentious legislation that would allow extraditions to mainland China.

“I would like to tender my sincere apologies to the citizens of Hong Kong,” Carrie Lam, the chief executive of Hong Kong, said at a news conference at government headquarters. “I have come to understand I could have done better, I should have done a better job.”

Mrs. Lam, who had already announced the bill’s indefinite suspension, said on Tuesday that as long as there were public disputes over its contents, legislative work on it would not be resumed.

She also said that she would not resign, but acknowledged that “as for my governance in the future, it will be difficult.”

About 100 people gathered outside the offices of the central government and listened as Mrs. Lam’s words boomed from a loudspeaker. Many booed as she spoke.

Samuel Chan, an electronics trader, said he did not believe Mrs. Lam was listening to the demands of protesters, including their call to withdraw the extradition bill entirely.

“They are just responding to the issue according to a government mind-set,” said Mr. Chan, 56. “Not the people’s will.”

Mrs. Lam faces broad public anger and continued demands for her resignation following three large-scale protests over the past 10 days. Despite her announcement on Saturday that the legislation was being suspended indefinitely, protesters turned out the next day in larger numbers than ever, with organizers providing an unverified estimate of close to two million of the territory’s seven million people.

Image
As many as two million people marched in Hong Kong on Sunday, according to organizers. Though the extradition bill has been suspended, protesters say it should be fully withdrawn.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

On Sunday evening, the Hong Kong government responded to that march with a conciliatory written statement that ended with a rare apology from Mrs. Lam, who is known for almost never backing down in a fight.

“The chief executive apologized to the people of Hong Kong for this and pledged to adopt a most sincere and humble attitude to accept criticisms and make improvements in serving the public,” the statement said.

That was not enough to satisfy Mrs. Lam’s many critics. The Civil Human Rights Front, one of the broader groups that helped organize the recent protests, said in a statement on Monday night that it still wanted her to resign.

Its first priority, however, is that the government drop all charges against those who have been arrested during the protests.

The police have arrested 32 people since Wednesday, when a demonstration outside the Hong Kong legislature turned violent. A group of protesters attempting to storm the building threw umbrellas and other objects at the police, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.

The Hong Kong police commissioner, Lo Wai-chung, said on Monday evening that the government would pursue rioting charges against only five people accused of being involved in the violence. Protesters had objected to his earlier characterization of the Wednesday protest as a riot.

On Tuesday, Mrs. Lam did not elaborate on Mr. Lo’s remarks except to say that those who protested peacefully would not face legal action.

Some democracy activists are quietly nervous about the possibility of a resignation by Mrs. Lam, a lifelong civil servant, because her political heir apparent, Paul Chan, has a reputation for being even more strongly pro-Beijing.

Others are adamant that Mrs. Lam step down. They contend that the Hong Kong public should press for full and free elections rather than accept the current system, in which a pro-Beijing committee of fewer than 1,200 people selects the chief executive.

Image
Protesters outside Mrs. Lam’s office on Monday. They have demanded her resignation.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

Protesters made similar demands for open elections five years ago, when they occupied major roadways for almost three months in what is known as the Umbrella Movement. While that movement did not achieve its short-term objectives, it had a major influence on this year’s anti-extradition protests.

Emily Lau, a former chairwoman of the Democratic Party who is still an influential voice on democracy issues, said the politics of Mr. Chan, the financial secretary, should not deter critics from calling for Mrs. Lam’s resignation.

“It would be a disaster to have him as chief executive,” Ms. Lau said. “But we should not say, ‘Because we don’t want Paul Chan, maybe Carrie should stay.’”

Many critics have also called for the extradition bill to be withdrawn outright rather than merely suspended. Otherwise, experts say, it could be reintroduced at any time, although government advisers have made it clear that there is no plan to do so.

Hong Kong’s legislature is controlled by pro-Beijing lawmakers, who hold 43 of 70 seats. When she announced the extradition bill’s suspension on Saturday, Mrs. Lam said that if she had wanted to force it through, she would have had enough votes to do so.

Anthony Cheung, a former transport and housing secretary, said the government should withdraw the bill because there was so much disagreement over what it should say.

“Definitely there is no consensus within the community, including the legal community, on the contents of the bill,” he said in a telephone interview on Tuesday morning.

The bill would make it easier for Hong Kong to send people suspected of crimes to jurisdictions with which it does not have extradition agreements. That would include mainland China, where the judicial system is notoriously opaque and under the tight control of the ruling Communist Party.

Opponents fear that if the bill becomes law, anyone in the city would be at risk of being sent to the mainland, including dissidents. Under the terms of Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule in 1997, the former British colony has its own legal and economic systems, as well as civil liberties unknown on the mainland. But in recent years, those freedoms have eroded.

Mrs. Lam has said many times that she introduced the bill to resolve the case of a local man accused of murdering his girlfriend in Taiwan, which does not have an extradition treaty with Hong Kong. But Taiwan, which China considers its territory, has said it would not seek the man’s extradition under the legislation, which it fears could undermine its sovereignty.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/world/asia/hong-kong-carrie-lam-apology.html

2019-06-18 08:31:49Z
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Iran will not wage war against any nation: Iranian president - Reuters

FILE PHOTO: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during a meeting with tribal leaders in Kerbala, Iraq, March 12, 2019. REUTERS/Abdullah Dhiaa Al-Deen/File Photo

GENEVA (Reuters) - Iran will not wage war against any nation, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday, a day after the United States announced the deployment of more troops to the Middle East amid rising tensions between Tehran and Washington.

Fears of a confrontation between Iran and the United States have mounted since attacks on two oil tankers at the entrance to the Gulf on Thursday, which Washington has blamed on Tehran.

“Iran will not wage war against any nation,” Rouhani said in a speech broadcast live on state TV. “Those facing us are a group of politicians with little experience.”

He added, “Despite all of the Americans’ efforts in the region and their desire to cut off our ties with all of the world and their desire to keep Iran secluded, they have been unsuccessful.”

Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan announced on Monday the deployment of about 1,000 more troops to the Middle East for what he said were defensive purposes citing concerns about a threat from Iran.

Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh, Editing by William Maclean

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa/iran-will-not-wage-war-against-any-nation-iranian-president-idUSKCN1TJ0IV

2019-06-18 07:03:00Z
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Man who shared New Zealand mosque shooting video online jailed for 21 months - CNN

Philip Neville Arps, 44, was sentenced in Christchurch District Court on Tuesday to 21 months in prison after pleading guilty to two charges of distributing objectionable material, his lawyer Anselm Williams confirmed to CNN.
Arps sent copies of the footage -- which was streamed live on March 15 by the mosque shooter -- to about 30 people soon after attacks on worshippers inside two Christchurch mosques, according to CNN affiliate Radio New Zealand.
Shortly after the attack, New Zealand's Office of Film and Literature classified the video as objectionable, making it an offense to possess, share or host it. Under New Zealand law, distributing objectionable material to another person carries a possible prison sentence of up to 14 years.
During sentencing on Tuesday, Judge Stephen O'Driscoll said that when Arps was asked for his opinion on the video, he described it as "awesome," RNZ reported.
"Your offending glorifies and encourages the mass murder carried out under the pretext of religious and racial hatred," Judge O'Driscoll said, according to the RNZ report. "It is clear from all the material before me that you have strong and unrepentant views towards the Muslim community."
Williams said that his client Arps filed an appeal Tuesday against his sentence, arguing that it is "too stern." A date to hear the appeal has not yet been set.
Arps owns an insulation company named Beneficial Insulation, which uses a Nazi logo that was also featured in an online document published by the alleged Christchurch shooter.
People walk past flowers and tributes displayed in memory of the twin mosque massacre victims outside the Botanical Gardens in Christchurch on April 5, 2019.
Brenton Tarrant, the 28-year-old accused of carrying out the March 15 attacks, is expected to stand trial next year after pleading not guilty earlier this month to 51 counts of murder, 40 charges of attempted murder, and one charge under the Terrorism Suppression Act, the first time such a charge has been laid inside the country.
An 18-year-old and a 16-year-old have also been charged over distributing the live steam of the Christchurch videos, according to Williams, who is also representing the teens.

Limiting hate speech

Following the March 15 attacks, politicians and Muslim New Zealanders have raised concerns about the level of hate speech allowed to circulate online.
In May, the country's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern worked alongside French President Emmanuel Macron to host the Christchurch Call for Action, encouraging tech companies and countries to work together to end the use of social media in acts of terrorism.
The country's Justice Minister Andrew Little announced in March that he would fast-track a review of the country's hate speech laws, which could see the country introduce a new legal offense against hate crimes.
Currently hate speech is covered by two New Zealand laws -- the Human Rights Act and the Harmful Digital Communications Act. However, Little said there were questions about whether the processes under the second act were as accessible as they needed to be, and noted that discrimination on the basis of religion isn't covered by the first act.
"If your hateful expressions and hateful actions are directed at somebody's religion, or other prohibited grounds of discrimination other than race then actually it doesn't cover that, there's no offense at that point," he told RNZ.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/18/asia/christchurch-livestream-sentence-nz-intl-hnk/index.html

2019-06-18 06:45:00Z
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Senin, 17 Juni 2019

Egypt's ousted president Mohammed Morsi dies during trial - BBC News

Egypt's former President Mohammed Morsi, who was ousted by the army in 2013, has died after fainting in a courtroom, state TV says.

A former top figure in the now-banned Islamist movement Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi was in court for a hearing on charges of espionage. He was 67.

Morsi was overthrown following mass protests a year after he took office as the country's first democratically elected leader.

He had remained in custody since then.

After his removal from power, Egyptian authorities launched a crackdown on his supporters and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The hearing in the capital, Cairo, was related to charges of espionage emanating from suspected contacts with the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, according to state television.

Who was Morsi?

Morsi was born in the village of El-Adwah in the Nile Delta province of Sharqiya in 1951. He studied Engineering at Cairo University in the 1970s before moving to the US to complete a PhD.

He was chosen as the Muslim Brotherhood's presidential candidate for the 2012 election after the movement's preferred choice was forced to pull out. After a narrow victory, he promised to head a government "for all Egyptians".

But critics complained he had failed to deliver during his turbulent year in office. They accused him of allowing Islamists to monopolise the political scene and mishandling the economy.

Public opposition to his government grew and millions of anti-government protesters took to the streets across Egypt to mark the first anniversary of the day he took office, on 30 June 2013.

On the evening of 3 July, the army suspended the constitution and announced the formation of a technocratic interim government ahead of new presidential elections. Morsi, who denounced the announcement as a coup, was taken into custody by the army.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48668941

2019-06-17 16:29:53Z
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Iran says it will break uranium stockpile limit from nuclear deal - Vox.com

Iran says it is just days away from breaking its end of a major nuclear deal by stockpiling forbidden amounts of uranium. If it does so, it would be the latest signal that Tehran may put itself on the path toward a nuclear weapon in direct defiance of President Donald Trump.

The 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran, the US, European powers, Russia, and China put tight restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The Obama administration’s goal was to block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon diplomatically, instead of by force.

But Trump withdrew America from the deal last year, reimposed financial penalties on Iran, and asked European countries to cease their business with the country.

That led Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in May to announce that his nation would start stockpiling low-enriched uranium, which can be used for nuclear reactors but not for atomic bombs.

The nuclear accord compels Tehran to keep no more than 300 kilograms — or about 660 pounds — of low-enriched uranium and to sell the excess so that it can’t even come close to building a nuclear weapon.

But after the US left the agreement, reimposed sanctions, and blocked European nations from dealing with the country, Tehran seemingly felt it was free to regain what it had traded away.

That’s now clear: Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesperson for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said Monday that his nation will blow through the imposed limit by June 27 — only 10 days from now.

“We will go further from that ceiling, not only that but we will also increase production drastically. After we pass the limit of 300 kg, the pace and the speed of enriched uranium production at the lower rate will also increase,” he said, speaking at Iran’s Arak nuclear plant.

But there’s a catch: If European nations give Iran access to the global financial system and grow business ties, then Iran would comply with the nuclear agreement again, Kamalvandi said.

The European nations party to the deal — the UK, France, and Germany — may not comply with Iran’s demand, saying they would reimpose their own sanctions if Iran surpasses the low-enriched uranium limit.

However, they’re also working on creating a barter-trade system so they can do business with Iran despite America’s sanctions.

Which means Iran’s gambit — breaking a part of the nuclear deal to compel either the US or European countries to loosen financial pressure — may not work. But that won’t stop Iran from pursuing what seems like an incredibly risky and possibly futile plan.

Iran may be a relatively powerful country in the Middle East, but its options for pushing back against the US and its European allies are few. Its two best options are to cease compliance with the terms of the nuclear agreement and to threaten to disrupt the global energy trade.

Both of those moves are extremely dicey, especially the second one. It would garner the fury of the United States and other nations dependent on energy traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime passage aggressively patrolled by Iran where a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost 20 percent of the world’s oil production flows.

Likely because the sanctions have put a major dent in Iran’s economy, Tehran chose to employ the risky, two-pronged strategy. With the announcement that it will soon have extra low-enriched uranium, Iran has signaled its intention to execute option one. Option two, however, is already seemingly underway.

In May, four oil tankers were damaged near the Strait of Hormuz. Two of them belonged to Saudi Arabia and one belonged to the United Arab Emirates, both staunch enemies of Iran and friends to the US. (The fourth was owned by a Norwegian company.)

United Nations ambassadors from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Norway said two weeks ago that the damages came after a country used divers to place mines on the large ships. The diplomats didn’t specifically name Iran as the culprit, but the US had already blamed Tehran for the sabotage, a charge Iran denies.

And last week, two oil tankers traveling in the Gulf of Oman — just east of the Strait of Hormuz — caught fire and sustained significant damage, leading the US Navy and other nearby ships to respond immediately. The Trump administration also said Iran was responsible for using limpet mines on at least one vessel and trying to shoot down a US military drone (Iran also denies this).

Put together, Middle East expert and Bloomberg opinion writer Bobby Ghosh wrote last Friday, Iran may be trying to “blackmail” America: “End the sanctions, or we take out some more tankers, and send oil prices surging.” That play may compel the US to negotiate with Iran over how to end the months-long crisis, talks Trump says he’s willing to have once Tehran is ready.

But Ghosh isn’t sure Iran’s gambit will work. “If you squint just enough, you can see that the Iranians are moving toward negotiations. It is a high-risk strategy, more likely to fail than succeed.”

There’s one good reason to suspect that: The blackmail approach assumes that the United States, led by Iran hawks such as National Security Adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, will back down from the challenge and agree to diplomacy.

If they don’t, then a US-Iran tit-for-tat may be all the world sees in the foreseeable future — and that could have catastrophic consequences.

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https://www.vox.com/2019/6/17/18681752/iran-nuclear-deal-uranium-trump

2019-06-17 14:20:00Z
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