US piling pressure on Iran
Fog of war hangs over tanker attacks
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/politics/us-iran-tankers-diplomacy-warfare-pompeo/index.html
2019-06-14 06:50:00Z
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CNN's Devan Cole contributed to this report.
The apparent attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday represents a dramatic escalation in regional and international tensions. Coming just one month and one day after an attack on four other oil tankers in the same area, oil prices have spiked upward in fear of what might happen next.
What's going on here? Blame Iran.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudis might want a United States showdown with Iran but they would not risk jeopardizing the U.S. relationship by conducting a false flag attack. Moreover, the damage to the two tankers in this latest incident is suggestive of a torpedo attack: video shows at least one of the tankers on fire with waterline damage amidships. Iran has an array of means for such an attack, including attack submarines of various sizes, disguised fishing and passenger boats, and military fast boats.
Regardless, this attack fits comfortably with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps penchant for thinly deniable action. Suffering deep financial losses due to escalating U.S. sanctions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps wants to pressure the international community into restraining the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy. Iran will hope that this attack is sufficiently calibrated to avoid clear evidence of its culpability and thus avoid U.S. retaliation. In that, it is designed as a halfway measure between doing nothing and inviting U.S. retaliation by overtly attempting to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
But Iran's escalation should not be seen solely through the prism of this attack. Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei has made veiled but apparent threats of Iranian resistance to the Trump administration's pressure. And an Iranian-enabled missile attack on Saudi Arabia this week illustrates that the Revolutionary Guards is escalating. This sits squarely within Iran's theocratic penchant for resistance against great odds (look up the Battle of Karbala).
The question is how the U.S. and its allies should respond.
The measure of this aggression will require some kind of significant response. Iran is now actively disrupting international oil markets and free passage of an arterial trade route. That cannot stand. But rightly neither is there much appetite in the U.S. or the region for a war.
I suspect what we will now see is a significantly increased naval presence by the U.S. and its allies to protect transit routes. Iranian forces and fishing vessels (due to the threat of disguised attacks) will likely be warned to keep distance from other vessels or face being sunk. We should expect them to test that warning, and for allied vessels to fire on them in response. Hopefully they will get the message and go back to port.
In terms of naval air-power, the U.S. currently has only an amphibious ready group in the area, so expect one of the carriers now in the Atlantic to be redeployed back to the Gulf.
Two oil tankers were damaged in a suspected attack off the Gulf of Oman early Thursday, prompting the rescue of dozens of crew members.
The U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet told Reuters it was assisting two tankers in the Gulf of Oman after receiving two distress calls. Details of the incident were unclear, but one of the operators made an unconfirmed report that a torpedo had hit its ship, Reuters reported.
"We are aware of the reported attack on tankers in the Gulf of Oman. U.S. Naval Forces in the region received two separate distress calls at 6:12 a.m. local time and a second one at 7:00 a.m.,'' Joshua Frey of the Fifth Fleet said. The Fleet did not blame anyone for the attack.
One of the vessels involved was identified as the MT Front Altair, a Marshall Islands-flagged but Norwegian-owned crude oil tanker carrying naphtha, a petrochemical product, to Japan.
International Tanker Management, which operates the MT Front Altair said an explosion had caused a fire onboard. The firm told the Associated Press the incident is still being investigated and it was unclear what caused the explosion. Its 23 crew members were evacuated by the nearby South Korean-based Hyundai Dubai Vessel and are now safe, the firm said.
Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA, claimed the Front Altair had sunk, but the Norwegian shipping firm Frontline said it was still afloat.
The Iranian Students News Agency tweeted unverified images of the Front Altair on fire.
The other vessel, the Panama-flagged, Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous, reportedly carrying methanol, sustained damage on its hull starboard side. 21 sailors were evacuated, and one was slightly injured.
A U.S. Navy official told Fox News that the USS Bainbridge, a guided-missile destroyer which had been in port in Oman in recent days, rescued 21 sailors from the Kokuka.
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The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations -- an arm of the British Navy -- had put out an alert earlier and urged "extreme caution" amid U.S.-Iran tensions.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, described the incidents as "suspicious" and called for regional talks. His comments came as Ayatollah Khamenei was meeting Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, for talks in Iran.
The area of the explosions is near the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which 20 percent of global oil consumption passes from Middle East producers. Oil prices rose by about 4 percent in the wake of the latest incidents, while the tanker association INTERTANKO said that there were growing worries for the safety of ships sailing through the strait.
"Following two attacks on Member vessels this morning, I am extremely worried about the safety of our crews going through the Strait of Hormuz," Paolo d’Amico, chairman of INTERTANKO, said in a statement.
"We need to remember that some 30% of the world’s (seaborne) crude oil passes through the Straits. If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk."
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UAE ACCUSES 'STATE ACTOR' FOR TANK ATTACKS, BUT STOPS JUST SHORT OF IRAN
Thursday's incident comes a month after the U.S. accused Iran of attacking ships off the coast of United Arab Emirates. The UAE told the U.N. Security Council a "state actor" was most likely behind the attacks but stopped short of blaming Iran.
The timing of Thursday's incident was especially sensitive as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was visiting Iran as an interlocutor for President Donald Trump to ease tensions between Washington and Tehran.
On Wednesday, after talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Abe warned that any "accidental conflict" amid heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. must be avoided at all costs.
While meeting with Abe on Thursday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that while Tehran doesn't want an atomic bomb, "America could not do anything" to stop Iran if it did.
Khamenei was quoted earlier saying that Iran "will in no way repeat" negotiations with the U.S. amid tension over its unraveling nuclear deal with world powers.
Khamenei's official website quoted him as telling Abe: "I don't regard Trump as deserving any exchange of messages and have no response for him and will give no response."
Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson and Chris Irvine contributed to this report.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates -- Two tankers were attacked Thursday near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, leaving one ablaze and adrift as sailors were evacuated from both. It was the second time in a month that tankers have been seriously damaged in the region, and again U.S. officials were quick to point the finger of blame at Iran.
A U.S. defense official told CBS News senior national security correspondent David Martin it was "highly likely Iran caused these attacks" on Thursday. The official dismissed an Iranian claim to have rescued the crews of both vessels in the Gulf of Oman as "patently false." He said the USS Bainbridge picked up 21 crew members.
Iran claimed it dispatched search teams that rescued 44 sailors from the two vessels.
The official told Martin he had seen reports that members of one of the tanker crews believed they were hit by a torpedo or a mine, but that he couldn't confirm those reports.
A U.S. official told Martin that American authorities expected to recover sufficient debris from the attacks to be able to trace them back to their source. The official said any retaliation from the U.S. would depend on the evidence found linking the attcks to Iran, and on the attitudes of other Gulf countries. After four tankers were attacked last month Saudi Arabia had no appetite for retaliation. That has changed.
The Lincoln was making a port call in Oman. It has gotten underway. Don't know if it was scheduled to get underway or did so in response to attacks.
U.S. officials pushing back against Iranian claims to have rescued crew members. According to U.S. officials, the crewmen Iran "rescued" were given no choice about boarding an Iranian vessel. At last report, they were still in Iranian hands, so fine line between rescued and detained.
The attacks come amid heightened tension between Washington and Tehran, and the timing is senstitive; it transpired just as the Japanese leader was visiting Iran to try and rekindle diplomacy to ease the standoff. Japan's Trade Ministry said the two vessels struck on Thursday were carrying "Japan-related cargo."
Iran's foreign minister described the attacks as beyond suspicious, given the timing with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meeing in Tehran with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
"Suspicious doesn't begin to describe what likely transpired this morning," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet. He didn't elaborate.
On Wednesday, after talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Abe had warned that an "accidental conflict" could be sparked amid the heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, which he said must be avoided. His message came just hours after Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi airport, striking the arrivals hall before dawn and wounding 26 people Wednesday.
Tensions have escalated in the Mideast as Iran appears poised to break the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, an accord the Trump administration first unilaterally backed out of last year.
Khamenei, meanwhile, reiterated his regime's long-standing insistence that it does not seek to obtain nuclear weapons, but he added that "America could not do anything" to stop Iran if it did.
The latest incidents come after the U.S. alleged that Iran used mines to attack four oil tankers off the nearby Emirati port of Fujairah last month. Iran has denied involvement, but it comes as Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen also have launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Benchmark Brent crude spiked at one point by as much 4% in trading after the reported attack to over $62 a barrel, highlighting how crucial the Strait of Hormuz is to global energy supplies. A third of all oil traded by sea passes through the strait, which is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf.
Cmdr. Joshua Frey, a spokesman for the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, said American ships were assisting the two vessels, which he described as being hit in a "reported attack." He did not say how the ships were attacked or who was suspected of being behind the assault.
The Norwegian shipping firm Frontline confirmed Thursday that one of its tankers, the Front Altair, was in flames after an incident in the Gulf of Oman, according to Reuters. It cited the Norwegian newspaper VG, which quoted a company spokesman. The spokesman said all 23 crew members were taken onto a nearby vessel.
Dryad Global, a maritime intelligence firm, said the Front Altair was "on fire and adrift."
Reuters also quoted a senior official of Taiwanese state oil refiner CPC Corp as saying the Front Altair, a tanker chartered by CPC to carry fuel from the Middle East, was apparently hit by a torpedo.
Front Altair had been loaded at a port in the Gulf with naptha, a petroleum product, and was on its way to the Far East.
Separately, a spokesman for BSM Ship Management told Reuters one of the vessels it manages, the Kokuka Courageous, was damaged in "a security incident" in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. He said all 21 crew members abandoned ship and were quickly rescued, adding that the incident damaged the ship's starboard hull.
"The Kokuka Courageous remains in the area and is not in any danger of sinking. The cargo of methanol is intact," Reuters quoted the spokesman as saying.
Reuters reported that a shipping broker said there was an explosion "suspected from an outside attack" on the Kokuka Courageous – and it may have involved a magnetic mine. Japanese shipping firm Kokuka Sangyo, the vessel's owner, said it was struck twice in three hours, Reuters added.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, a maritime safety group run by the British navy, first put out the alert early Thursday, giving coordinates for the incident some 25 miles off the Iranian coastline.
Thursday's suspected attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman come a month after four commercial ships were hit in the same waterway, heightening tensions in a region already on edge.
But these reported attacks appear to be even more aggressive. Here's the difference between the two incidents.
May 12 incident
In the incident on May 12, four ships were at anchor in the UAE port of Fujairah, a few kilometers from the coast, when they were apparently hit by mines or improvised explosive devices likely attached to their hulls overnight. The attacks caused no injuries and no evacuation. They were, essentially, pin-prick strikes, a subtle message.
The US and Saudi Arabia suspect Iran was behind those attacks -- though no evidence of its involvement has been presented. Tehran denied any involvement, and precisely who carried out the attack is still under investigation.
Today's incident
The two tankers involved in today's suspected attacks were some 70 kilometers from the UAE, closer to the Iranian coast.
One of them was hit above the water line by what witnesses described as “some sort of shell," according to an official from the firm that owns the boat. The other ship caught on fire following an explosion. The crews of both boats were evacuated.
There has been no assigning of blame thus far today, but the volume has been turned up.