Harry Kazianis: Trump summit with South Korea president could bring progress in North's denuclearization - Fox News

President Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will meet Thursday at the White House to discuss efforts to convince North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to get rid of his nuclear weapons and long-range missiles and forge a lasting peace with the South and the United States.

Accomplishing this won’t be easy, but it’s not impossible. Dealing with North Korea has been a foreign policy and military nightmare since Korea was split into two nations in 1948 – the communist North aligned with Russia and China, and the South aligned with the U.S.

In fact, we are still technically at war with the North. The Korean War, begun in 1950, ended in 1953 with an armistice rather than a peace treaty. Offering Kim a peace treaty as part of a deal on denuclearization could be one of several incentives to get him to give up his nation’s status as a nuclear power.

TRUMP TO MEET WITH SOUTH KOREA’S MOON IN APRIL, WHITE HOUSE SAYS

Tensions rose considerably between Washington and Pyongyang in the dark days of 2017 when Trump and Kim traded threats of military strikes. But since then the two leaders have met in two summits in a so-far unsuccessful effort to resolve their differences.

Having no diplomatic relations makes things harder, with simple messages taking days to travel between key policymakers in the U.S. and North Korea. Establishing diplomatic relations would be a big win for Kim – and could be another incentive for him to make major concessions on denuclearization.

The good news is that if President Trump is willing to take a small leap of faith, there is a clear path forward that could guarantee a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula and a real end to the Korean War, ensuring that the nuclear threats of the past remain in the history books.

The good news is that if President Trump is willing to take a small leap of faith, there is a clear path forward that could guarantee a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula and a real end to the Korean War, ensuring that the nuclear threats of the past remain in the history books.

This is where South Korea’s President Moon can make a difference.

The Moon Miracle, or what many refer to as Seoul’s strategy to facilitate a détente between the U.S. and North Korea, has been transformative.

Moon played a key role in a historically successful Winter Olympics in South Korea last year, three inter-Korean summits, a comprehensive inter-Korean military de-escalation agreement along the Demilitarized Zone, and the normalization of dialogue between the two Koreas.

These successes have done much to ensure the dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang moves forward. In engineering them, Moon has put his own legacy in clear jeopardy, while weakening his own position back home. He will be judged either a great success or an enormous failure, depending on how the North responds to his overtures.

Now we will find out if Moon’s miracle can be truly be sustained. On Thursday he will try to ascertain where President Trump stands on several key issues that could determine the future of relations with North Korea.

First, Moon will seek to figure out if Trump is really committed to a concrete diplomatic negotiation with North Korea, or only willing to deal with the Kim regime if it will surrender its nuclear weapons before getting any relief from economic sanctions.

Next, Moon must find out who is the key decision-maker on Trump’s team when it comes to dealing with North Korea. It is clear that there is not unanimity among Trump’s advisers.

It will be important for Moon to know if National Security Adviser John Bolton – a hardliner on dealing with the North – is just trying to project an image of strength, or whether he is truly the man driving the Trump administration’s negotiation strategy.

If Bolton is in the driver’s seat he will most likely demand what amounts to North Korea’s complete nuclear capitulation for any sort of concessions. A demand like this will most likely result in Kim ending any sort of talks for the foreseeable future.

Assuming Bolton is not driving administration policy, Moon needs to know if Washington is committed to absolutely no sanctions relief until full denuclearization – something that could take a decade or more to achieve – or if there is some middle ground that could be found.

If there is a middle ground, here is where Moon can truly make a difference. Moon should propose a compromise deal to provide limited sanctions relief to the North.

Under such a deal, North Korea would be required to close all facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex under international supervision, including a delegation of U.S. nuclear experts. In return, Pyongyang would be granted a temporary suspension of select sanctions.

Some U.N. Security Council resolutions could be suspended and the two Koreas could be allowed to work together on one or two joint economic projects under such a deal. The relaxation of sanctions on specific inter-Korean economic projects could include the linking of railways and roads across the North-South border.

This limited sanctions relief would cost the U.S. very little and be a significant boost to Moon’s separate inter-Korean reconciliation initiative. And it could accelerate the prospects of a peace agreement on the Korean Peninsula.

This play on words – calling the action “a temporary suspension of select sanctions,” matters tremendously and could be the key to a compromise deal.

President Trump would be able to say that he is not dropping any sanctions, at least not formally. Also, the Trump administration could embrace the role of the reasonable adult in the room and offer the North Koreans enough flexibility to prove that its intentions towards peace and denuclearization are more than just talk.

This would allow Washington to grant Pyongyang a key concession while throwing the ball on North Korea’s side of the court to demonstrate its sincerity.

There is, however, one catch to this agreement. The U.S. would need to insist on a snapback provision for sanctions. This way, if the Kim regime does cheat, America and South Korea can reapply sanctions quickly.

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This is a deal President Trump should embrace. Now that any immediate danger from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation has passed, Trump surely would love to change the media narrative and focus the American people’s gaze on something much more positive, especially with the 2020 elections right around the corner.

There is no bigger accomplishment that would allow Trump to claim a real legacy than helping bring real peace to the Korean Peninsula along with denuclearization. Here’s to hoping that the U.S. and South Korean presidents get a real shot at making history, and maybe even a Nobel Peace Prize.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE BY HARRY J. KAZIANIS

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2019-04-11 03:24:02Z
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EU leaders, UK agree to extend Brexit deadline until the end of October - CNBC

European Union leaders and the U.K. government have agreed to a "flexible extension" of the Brexit deadline until Oct. 31.

Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said this development provides an "additional six months for the UK to find the best possible solution."

@eucopresident: EU27/UK have agreed a flexible extension until 31 October. This means additional six months for the UK to find the best possible solution.

The emergency summit was convened after Prime Minister Theresa May requested a further delay to the U.K.'s departure from the bloc. U.K. lawmakers have rejected May's agreement three times but they've also failed to reach a majority in support of alternative options.

May has been holding talks with opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in the hope that a compromise or alternative plan can be found, but this has so far proved elusive.

After two years of Brexit negotiations, the U.K. was meant to leave the EU on March 29. With Parliament not backing the deal on offer, the government asked for a short delay to April 12 in order to get backing for an alternative Brexit strategy.

As that has failed to materialize, May was forced last week to ask for a longer delay to June 30 in order to prevent the U.K. leaving the bloc without a deal.

The EU had already warned that a longer delay would mean that it has to take part in European Parliament elections in late May. The U.K. would have to take part in those elections and vote on representatives to the European Parliament. Those members would stop working for the EU on the day the U.K. leaves the bloc.

A source familiar with the negotiations told CNBC that France was the toughest to convince. Diplomatic sources told Reuters that French President Emmanuel Macron said a delay beyond June 30 would undermine the bloc. Some diplomats expressed frustration with his stance, suggesting that Paris was adding more uncertainty to the summit.

This is a breaking news story, please check back later for further updates.

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2019-04-11 00:10:35Z
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Benjamin Netanyahu likely to win Israeli prime minister election after opposition party concedes - Fox News

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears more likely than ever to be headed to a fifth term Wednesday after the party of his top rival conceded defeat in the country’s parliamentary elections.

The Blue and White party, headed by former army chief of staff Benny Gantz, drew even with Netanyahu's Likud party, but the incumbent prime minister is poised to form a government with his larger bloc of allies.

Gantz said his party "founded a true alternative rule to Netanyahu,” but its No. 2 figure, Yair Lapid, told reporters Wednesday that it “did not win in this round”.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, says President Trump has called to congratulate him on his election win from Air Force One.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waves to his supporters after polls for Israel's general elections closed in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Wednesday.

Netanyahu's office issued a statement Wednesday saying Trump "warmly congratulated" Netanyahu, who thanked the president for his "great support for Israel," including the White House's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Netanyahu campaigned on his foreign policy victories and close relations with world leaders — Trump in particular.

Israel's president also said Wednesday that his talks with political parties are to begin next week, in the run-up to picking the leader he thinks has the best chance of forming a stable governing coalition.

Reuven Rivlin added that, for the first time, his meetings with party leaders would be broadcast on live television "in the name of transparency."

Although the president acts largely in a ceremonial capacity, he is charged with choosing a candidate for prime minister after hearing recommendations from the heads of all factions, according to the Associated Press. Rivlin will then task the leading candidate with forming a government within 42 days.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to be the president's choice.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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2019-04-10 17:35:34Z
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The E.U. Seems Ready to Put Brexit on Ice. But for How Long? - The New York Times

BRUSSELS — European leaders are coming to Brussels on Wednesday evening as they would go to the dentist — unhappily, but necessarily — to give the embattled British prime minister, Theresa May, another extension on Brexit.

Britain’s scheduled withdrawal from the European Union will be delayed, senior European officials and diplomats say, to avoid a “no-deal” hard Brexit on Friday night. The main discussion will be for how long the extension of the process should last.

The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, and the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, have suggested an extension until June 1, 2020, diplomats say. If Britain’s Parliament were to pass the withdrawal agreement that the government has negotiated with the bloc any time sooner, the country would leave the bloc on the first of the next month, this proposal goes.

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The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, center left, and the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, have suggested a lengthy extension to the Brexit deadline.CreditEmmanuel Dunand/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

European leaders stressed that, whatever should happen in the process of withdrawal, or Brexit, the British Parliament would still have to pass the withdrawal agreement before there could be any discussions about the future relationship — even if Britain had left without an agreement first. The terms would include the major sticking point for pro-Brexit lawmakers, the so-called backstop to prevent a physical border between Northern Ireland and the south.

The agreement covers technical issues concerning the withdrawal and is not up for renegotiation, European leaders say, while an associated “political declaration” covers things like trade and customs and could serve as the basis for negotiations on the future.

The leaders of the other 27 member states will decide on the length of any extension and other matters late Wednesday night after hearing out Mrs. May. The debate will be mostly over tactics: whether this long extension puts more pressure on Parliament to pass the withdrawal agreement quickly, or whether, as Austria and a handful of other countries believe, an extension just until the end of June would be the best way to accomplish that goal.

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The leaders of the other 27 member states will decide on the length of any extension late Wednesday night after hearing out Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain.CreditJack Taylor/Getty Images

“That is a tactical issue and a political decision, and the leaders will come to a decision on that,” a senior European diplomat said. “But no one favors a no-deal Brexit on Friday.”

With any extension under consideration, Britain would have to hold elections for the European Parliament on May 23. Mrs. May has regarded that prospect, three years after the British voted for Brexit, as absurd, but she now accepts it as the inevitable price of avoiding a no-deal Brexit and the damage that would do to her country’s economy.

A central argument for a long extension is that it would relieve European leaders of the burden of constant emergency sessions on Brexit, allowing them to deal with other pressing issues, like migration, the next seven-year budget and the European elections, as well as the choice of a new president for the council, the decision-making body at which the bloc’s heads of government meet; new leaders for the commission, the bloc’s executive arm; and a new central bank head.

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European leaders stressed that Britain’s Parliament would still have to pass the withdrawal agreement before there could be any discussions about the future relationship, even if the country left without an agreement first.CreditDan Kitwood/Getty Images

One argument against a long extension, which France makes, is that Britain could create difficulties with a new budget and other key issues, since it would remain a member with all of a member’s rights and responsibilities. President Emmanuel Macron is seeking some form of guarantee from Mrs. May that Britain would behave responsibly.

Mr. Macron has suggested quarterly “reviews” of Britain’s behavior during any long extension, which others find difficult legally. But it may be that as a compromise, diplomats suggest, the extension would run only to the end of October.

The idea is to give time for Britain to sort itself out and decide what kind of future relationship it wants. But in any case, European officials emphasize, the withdrawal agreement, including the Irish backstop, designed to guarantee no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, will not change.

There is little expectation in Brussels that Mrs. May’s current negotiations with the opposition Labour Party will come to a positive conclusion, hence the willingness for a long extension. But whether that means the end of Mrs. May’s premiership and new elections is not Europe’s concern, the officials say.

The difference now, in contrast to the last emergency council meeting last month, is that the European leaders have decided to take control over the length of any extension. What might happen at the end of it — including a no-deal Brexit, or a decision to stay in the European Union — would be up to Britain.

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2019-04-10 17:26:15Z
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Paul to Pompeo: You do not have ‘permission’ for war with Iran - POLITICO

During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul told Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that “only Congress can declare war.” | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

Sen. Rand Paul on Wednesday warned the Trump administration not to go to war with Iran, at least not without getting permission from Congress.

The libertarian-leaning Kentucky Republican spoke directly to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Story Continued Below

He asked Pompeo if the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force, which allowed for U.S. troops to fight entities responsible for the 9/11 attacks and associated forces, included Iran.

Pompeo declined to directly answer the question, saying he’d defer to lawyers, but stated that there is “no doubt there’s a connection” between the Iranian government and al-Qaeda, the terrorist group behind the 2001 attacks.

“You do not have the permission of Congress to go to war with Iran,” Paul responded, while chiding Pompeo for trying to deflect the question. “Only Congress can declare war.”

Pompeo was testifying before the Republican-controlled committee, a session that came the same week the Trump administration designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization, prompting concerns about future clashes between the U.S. and Iranian-backed forces.

The hearing was supposed to focus on the Trump administration’s proposal to slash the State Department budget by about a fourth.

Lawmakers from both parties have dismissed the Trump administration’s budget proposal, saying it was a non-starter the way past such Trump plans have been. Instead they zoomed in on other subjects, from the administration’s strategy in Venezuela to its struggles to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

Pompeo’s appearance also came amid a shake-up in the administration that has seen the ouster of several top officials at the Department of Homeland Security, a department that frequently works with State on issues such as immigration.

Pompeo, a close confidant of Trump whose own position appears safe, echoed President Donald Trump’s insistence that the rise in the number of migrants from Latin America trying to reach the U.S. has resulted in a crisis along the border.

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2019-04-10 15:36:00Z
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5 takeaways from the Israeli elections - Washington Examiner

With nearly all the votes now counted, it's safe to say that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been reelected. For those catching up, here are five takeaways from Tuesday's Israeli election:

Bibi Survives. This of course is the biggest takeaway, and love him or hate him, it's a testament to his incredible resilience. Netanyahu was initially elected back in 1996, but was driven into the political wilderness by 1999. Yet a decade after his failed premiership, he was back in power, and after a decade as the nation's leader, he's about to start a record fifth term. This was far from a guarantee. Facing indictment for corruption and a strong challenge from a newly formed center-left alliance, he found himself in the fight of his political life. With 95 percent of the vote counted, his Likud party tied with the center-left Blue and White Party with 35 seats apiece. However, the right-wing bloc of parties gained a total of 65 seats, compared to 55 for the left-wing bloc, meaning Netanyahu is in a much stronger position to form a government, which requires a majority of 61 in the nation's parliament, the Knesset. As things stand, Netanyahu has been prime minister for nearly 20 percent of Israel's existence.

RIP Trump-Kushner peace plan. The outcome of the elections, and the fragile coalition Netanyahu will have to put together, will make it very unlikely he'd be able to support any sort of President Trump-Jared Kushner peace plan proposal. Any plan that involves significant Israeli concessions to get buy-in from Arab countries is almost certainly going to be opposed by Netanyahu's right-wing coalition partners with the power to bring down the government. The religious Zionist Union of Right Wing Parties in particular will be an obstacle, and they currently have five seats, which means without their involvement alone, Netanyahu would be down to 60 seats and thus lack a majority. Add to this the fact that Netanyahu will be facing indictment, and it's hard to imagine he'd have the political capital to make a deal. The only remaining question at this point is whether Trump even bothers to roll out the peace plan at all, or delays it indefinitely.

The racist party that drew international backlash likely shut out of the Knesset. Netanyahu drew significant international backlash, even in pro-Israel circles, for his cynical move that brought the racist fringe Jewish Power party into the political fold. What happened is that in the Israeli system, to qualify for the Knesset, any party has to win at least 4 seats, or 3.25 percent of the vote, or else its votes are tossed out and the seats are re-allocated among the larger parties that meet the threshold. Netanyahu was concerned that too many right-wing votes would go to waste, so he brokered a deal that brought the Jewish Power party into the Union of Right-Wing Parties. However, the party's representative, Itamar Ben Gvir, was seventh in line to gain a seat, and the party only won five according to the current results.

Religious parties win big. While, internationally, most coverage of Israel focuses on the conflict with the Palestinians and Iran, domestically, one of the biggest issues is the tension that exists between proponents of secularism and religious pluralism and ultra-Orthodox forces. Secular Israelis who serve in the military, work, and pay significant taxes bristle at ultra-Orthodox communities that skip military service, spend their time studying Torah, and then depend on state welfare to support their large families. Additionally, secular Israelis are increasingly frustrated with the power exerted in by the Chief Rabbinate, particularly over marriage laws. But boosted by massive turnout, the two largest ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) won eight seats each, tying them for the third largest party in the Knesset, and ensuring that they'll represent the largest bloc of votes within the new Netanyahu government after his own Likud. Their combined 16 votes will be able to stymie any sort of secular reforms, and allow them to exert considerable influence.

An exercise in political cannibalism. In the end, the overall balance of power did not shift significantly from the 2015 elections, when the right-wing bloc secured 67 seats and the left-wing was at 53. What ended up happening was a lot of political cannibalism. As Jerusalem Post's Gil Hoffman noted, the major parties directed much of their campaigns against the smaller parties in their own likely coalition to consolidate support. In the case of challenger Benny Gantz, this proved fatal, because it meant he wasn't doing enough to steal away votes from the other side. The outcome was that after the last election, Likud was at 30 seats and the closest rival, the makeshift Zionist Union alliance, was at 24 seats and there were multiple other parties in the double digits. Now Likud and rival Blue and White are both at 35, and no other party has more than eight seats.

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2019-04-10 14:58:00Z
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Israel elections: Netanyahu set for record fifth term as PM - Aljazeera.com

Jerusalem - Israel's incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on course for a record fifth term, election results show.

Netanyahu has an advantage as nearly all right-wing parties have declared their support to the Israeli leader, Israeli media reported.

The Likud party with the help of other right-wing parties are likely to muster enough support to get a majority in the 120-seat parliament, known as Knesset.

"It is a night of colossal victory," Netanyahu, 69, told supporters at Likud headquarters.

Likud party and the centrist Blue and White party led by Netanyahu's main rival Benny Gantz tied at 97 percent of votes counted. The two main parties won 35 seats apiece.

It is a night of colossal victory

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM

Likud, which gained five more seats compared with the 2015 elections, needs 61 seats to form the government.

Netanyahu and his main challenger Gantz were quick to claim victory in the elections.

"The skies may look overcast ... but they cannot conceal the sun of hope that we have brought to the Israeli people and society," Gantz, 59, wrote in an open letter.

United Torah Judaism, Shas, Yisrael Beitenu, Right-wing Union and Kulanu are parties from the right-wing bloc that have passed the 3.25 percent threshold to enter Knesset, obtaining 30 seats combined.

This places the right-wing bloc in a 10-seat lead over the left.

In the centre-left bloc Labor, Meretz and the Arab parties of Hadash-Ta'al and Balad-Ra'am obtained 20 seats.

Despite a low voter turnout among Israeli Palestinians, the Arab lists of Hadash-Ta'al and Balad-Ra'am passed the threshold gaining six and four seats respectively.

However, their total of 10 Knesset seats is lower than in the 2015 elections, when the Arab joint list won 13, making them the third-largest faction in the 20th Knesset.

An hour before voting closed, Israeli Palestinian turnout was at 46 percent, well below the 61 percent turnout nationwide. Palestinian turnout in the 2015 election was 63 percent.

The New Right, Zehut and Gesher parties did not pass the threshold.

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Mitchell Barak, an Israeli political pollster and analyst told Al Jazeera it's a remarkable achievement for a party to obtain 35 seats, referring to both frontrunners.

"Gantz has come out of literally nowhere. Four months ago he created a party that is now at least tied for being one of the largest parties today, and bigger than any party has been in recent memory, maybe 10 years or so," Barak said.

However, the biggest mistake for Gantz is that he chose to have a rotation agreement [as prime minister] with Blue and White cofounder Yair Lapid, former finance minister and TV personality.

"Israelis like leaders and they want one leader. They don't want a power sharing arrangement," Barak said.

Barak said that Netanyahu now has plenty of options in forming a coalition. He can partner with the parties from the right-wing bloc or choose to have a national unity government with the Blue and White party.

Once the final results are announced, parties that have made it to the Knesset will submit their recommendations for prime minister to President Reuven Rivlin.

Rivlin will then decide which party leader has the best chance of forming a coalition government, to be determined in a few weeks.

Political analyst Ofer Zalzberg told Al Jazeera that the critical issue is not which party receives the most votes but which party can secure recommendations of 61 Knesset members to form the next government.

Gantz had to generate potential alliances for instance with the ultra-Orthodox or among the former immigrants of the Soviet Union. That's why he made an error when he formed an alliance with Lapid, Zalzberg said.

The message that the Israeli public has sent is very clear. They support him, they support his policies of apartheid, they support his policies of colonisation.

Diana Buttu, a Palestinian analyst

"By merging into a single list with Lapid, he acted in the opposite way. Lapid is a nemesis of the ultra-Orthodox; they wouldn't recommend him as prime minister.

"This rotating [premiership] agreement between Gantz and lapid was ruinous and it assured that the ultra-Orthodox will … recommend Netanyahu."

Although Palestinians living under Israeli military occupation in occupied East Jerusalem, the occupied West Bank and living under Israeli siege in the Gaza Strip do not have voting right in the Israeli elections, it's the Palestinian population that will be most affected by the new government.

Diana Buttu, a Palestinian Haifa-based analyst and former legal adviser to Palestinian peace negotiators, told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu's renewed mandate will allow him to continue his "policies of apartheid, colonisation, and racism".

Buttu said that for as long as Netanyahu has been prime minister, the Palestinian Authority has been urging the international community to intervene during the bombing of Gaza, construction of settlements, demolition of Palestinian homes, passage of the nation-state law and regarding the annexation of the West Bank.

"… [Netanyahu] is ideologically opposed to Palestinian freedom [and] he's going to continue to do whatever he wants against Palestinians," Buttu said.

"The message that the Israeli public has sent is very clear. They support him, they support his policies of apartheid, they support his policies of colonisation and they support a racist."

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2019-04-10 13:12:00Z
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