https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/03/uk/is-a-second-referendum-more-likely/index.html
2019-04-03 17:37:02Z
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Talks between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn to break the Brexit deadlock have been called "constructive".
The two leaders met on Wednesday afternoon and agreed a "programme of work" to try to find a way forward to put to MPs for a vote.
It is understood that each party has appointed a negotiating team, which will meet later tonight before a full day of discussions on Thursday.
A spokesman for No 10 said both sides were "showing flexibility".
And he added that the two parties gave "a commitment to bring the current Brexit uncertainty to a close".
Speaking after the meeting, Mr Corbyn said there had not been "as much change as [he] had expected" in the PM's position.
He said the meeting was "useful, but inconclusive", and talks would continue.
This evening, MPs are debating legislation which would require Mrs May to seek an extension to Article 50 and give the Commons the power to approve or amend whatever was agreed.
The bill passed its first parliamentary hurdle by 315 to 310 votes, with further stages set to continue until at least 22.00 BST.
Supporters of the bill, tabled by Labour's Yvette Cooper, are trying to fast-track the bill through the Commons in the space of five hours, in a move which has angered Tory Brexiteers.
Mr Corbyn said he raised a number of issues with Mrs May, including future customs arrangements, trade agreements and the option of giving the public the final say over the deal in another referendum.
The Labour leader is coming under pressure from senior colleagues to make a referendum a condition of signing up to any agreement.
Demanding the shadow cabinet hold a vote on the issue, Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry said not backing a confirmatory vote would be a "breach" of the policy agreed by party members at its last conference.
The UK has until 12 April to propose a plan to the EU - which must be accepted by the bloc - or it will leave without a deal on that date.
The PM proposed the talks in a statement on Tuesday night. She wants to agree a policy with the Labour leader for MPs to vote on before 10 April - when the EU will hold an emergency summit on Brexit.
If there is no agreement between the two leaders, Mrs May said a number of options would be put to MPs "to determine which course to pursue".
In either event, Mrs May said she would ask the EU for a further short extension to hopefully get an agreement passed by Parliament before 22 May, so the UK does not have to take part in European elections.
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The two leaders also met Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
The SNP leader said she had "good" and "open" conversations with both, and while she believed Mr Corbyn would "drive a hard bargain", she was "still not entirely clear" where the prime minister was willing to compromise.
The SNP leader, who backs a further referendum and wants to remain in the EU, told reporters: "My concern is that in the rush to reach some compromise with the clock ticking, what will happen over the next few days... is a bad compromise will be reached."
The SNP, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, Plaid Cymru and the Independent Group have also held a joint press conference, calling for any decision made by the leaders to be put to a public vote.
But some Tory Brexiteers have condemned the talks, with two ministers resigning over the issue.
Chris Heaton-Harris quit on Wednesday afternoon, claiming his job at the Department for Exiting the European Union had become "irrelevant" if the government is not prepared to leave without a deal.
Wales Minister Nigel Adams also resigned earlier, saying the government was at risk of failing to deliver "the Brexit people voted for".
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By Patrick Smith
LONDON — Almost three years after Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, Prime Minister Theresa May appears to have played her final card as the clock ticks to a deadline that's just nine days away.
After chairing a seven-hour meeting of her Cabinet on Tuesday, the Conservative politician announced that she would seek to end the long, torturous impasse over Brexit in Parliament by offering to work with Jeremy Corbyn, the left-wing leader of the opposition Labour Party.
May has so far failed at every hurdle to make Brexit happen on her terms.
Her withdrawal agreement, which took two years to negotiate and was backed by all 27 other E.U. countries, has been rejected by British lawmakers three times. And there is nothing to suggest her deal would win enough support now.
A bill making its way through the House of Commons on Wednesday would force the government to ask the E.U. to delay the divorce, which was originally due to happen last Friday. It was moved to April 12 due to the political deadlock. If the bill passes, it could extend the process by up to 12 months.
The stakes could not be higher. So how does the U.K. get out of this mess? Here's a guide to how we got here and what might happen next.
Addressing the nation after Tuesday's marathon meeting, May said: “This debate, this division, cannot drag on much longer. It is putting members of Parliament and everyone else under immense pressure and it is doing damage to our politics.”
Seeking to "break the log jam," she offered to meet with Corbyn to "try to agree a plan that we would both stick to, to ensure that we leave the European Union and that we do so with a deal.”
While some lawmakers within her Conservative Party are pushing for a clean break with the E.U., agreeing to sit down with Corbyn suggests May is willing to compromise and consider a "softer" Brexit to finally reach an end to the process.
May was so keen to speak publicly about her proposal before any disgruntled ministers could leak everything to the press, multiple reports assert that she told her Cabinet to stay in her 10 Downing Street residence and offices while making her statement. As is typical for these meetings, their phones had been confiscated.
May had been pushing for a relatively hard Brexit, which would mean an arm’s-length relationship with the E.U. and ending the U.K.’s membership of the single market and customs union, which allow E.U. states to freely trade among each other at no cost and with virtually no border checks or red tape. It would also eliminate the freedom of all E.U. citizens to travel, live and work across the bloc.
These were May’s so-called red lines, things she wouldn’t back down on. She has spent months saying lawmakers are faced with her deal, no deal, or no Brexit whatsoever. But now, finally, a compromise looks more likely.
All this has gone down badly with Conservative Brexiteers. Two of May's ministers resigned Wednesday.
Former Conservative leader Iain Duncan-Smith wrote an article for the Daily Telegraph with the headline “The PM’s capitulation to Jeremy Corbyn makes me fear for my country.”
Opponents of Brexit, who would prefer a second referendum, believe May's gambit is just another way for the prime minister to get her deal passed.
I thought momentarily last night May’s “offer” might be genuine. Having heard Barclay on @BBCr4today it is clearly a trap designed to try to get May’s terrible deal through, which some people have fallen for, but Labour mustn’t. Nothing has changed. #BrexitShambles #PeoplesVote
— Ben Bradshaw (@BenPBradshaw) April 3, 2019
The trap: Any “concessions” are temporary & not legally binding. They will be attached to the political declaration. It will be immediately torn up by the incoming Tory leader. The only possible response from Labour: a public vote on what emerges as the price of our support.
— Ben Bradshaw (@BenPBradshaw) April 3, 2019
While Labour also promised voters at the last general election in 2017 that it would make Brexit happen, it has been pushing for the U.K. to remain in a customs union in order to safeguard jobs that rely on E.U. trade and to mitigate the economic impactof leaving the world’s largest trading bloc.
Oddly, their views on Brexit are in many ways quite similar. It’s just their parties that don’t agree with them.
Speaking in the House of Commons on Wednesday, May said: “I think there are a number of areas where we agree on Brexit, we both want to deliver leaving the E.U. with a deal, we both want to protect jobs, we both want to end free movement, we both recognize the importance of the withdrawal agreement.”
But Labour’s demands were unclear as of Wednesday afternoon.
Not quite. The E.U. has been very clear that the withdrawal agreement it negotiated with the U.K. in November is the only deal on the table.
The only thing that could change is the political declaration that goes along with this, which governs the future U.K.-E.U. relationship and isn’t strictly legally binding.
This is all made complicated by the nature of the E.U., which can only make big decisions unanimously as a bloc of 27 nations. Each nation has a veto and can block anything it doesn’t like.
The 2016 referendum simply asked voters whether they wanted to leave or remain in the E.U.
Some believe it’s now necessary to put all the various options — including May’s withdrawal agreement, a "no-deal" Brexit and perhaps even remaining in the E.U. — to the people.
Both the Conservatives and Labour promised before the 2017 general election to leave the E.U. and respect the results of the Brexit referendum.
However, a "People’s Vote" is an increasingly popular policy among Labour lawmakers and grassroots members. At its policy-making annual conference last year, Labour agreed to explore the possibility of a second referendum if Parliament couldn’t pass an acceptable Brexit deal on its own.
But Corbyn has shown little appetite for another referendum, which was cited as one of the main reasons behind a group of lawmakers quitting the party to form their own earlier this year.
Despite internal pressure, it’s unclear whether Labour would demand that May agrees to a second referendum.
However, Labour lawmaker and Corbyn ally Rebecca Long-Bailey told Sky News Wednesday that “if we get exactly what we want, I would struggle to find a reason to put that to a public vote.”
Even if a referendum is agreed, a monumental battle would then begin over what options to put on the ballot paper. If remaining in the E.U. is an option, Brexiteers would declare the process undemocratic.
And all this leaves open the possibility that Corbyn could agree a withdrawal deal with May and end up campaigning to leave the E.U. on those terms and against the majority of Labour lawmakers and the party's grassroots members.
Pressure on Corbyn to demand second referendum as price of Brexit deal with May. But if he did cut a deal, Labour would surely have to campaign for it in any referendum - and against Remain
— Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) April 3, 2019
Professor Tim Bale, from Queen Mary University in London, told NBC News that lack of party loyalty in Parliament that had emerged due to Brexit was unprecedented.
“Party discipline appears to have completely broken down," he said. “If some sort of deal was to be agreed and as part of that we were to see a second referendum then Labour’s stance would be quite questionable. Having agreed it would they then have to support it? Or would it mean they are able to say it was the best they could come up with and they still don’t agree with it."
Bale added: “There would have to be almost a free-for-all in that referendum so anyone in any party would be allowed to campaign for either side.”
It would be hard for Corbyn to back a Leave campaign having backed Remain in 2016, according to Bale, despite accusations that the Labour leader's support was lackluster.
Crucially, May also said in her statement on Tuesday that if the two party leaders can’t agree a way forward she would accept any deal that the Parliament approves next week, a sign of how weak she is.
But after voting on a number of options, lawmakers in the House of Commons have also been unable to find a solution.
Mercifully, no.
The E.U. has said it would grant another extension to the Brexit process beyond April 12 if there’s a good reason for it — such as the Parliament finally agreeing to a deal. However, both May and the E.U have said the process must not extend beyond May 22, the day before European Parliament elections.
May is desperate to avoid the bizarre spectacle of the U.K. holding such elections three years after voting to leave the E.U.
If the U.K. does nothing and doesn’t get another extension from Brussels to finalize a deal, it will exit the E.U. with no deal on April 12.
Economic misery, chaos at ports, grounded flights and food shortages are all possibilities, according to analysts.
Overnight, the country would lose more than 40 years of trade agreements, laws and regulations as well as automatic trading access to E.U. nations, which account for more than half of national trade.
The U.K. would default to World Trade Organisation rules, which would mean imposing big charges or tariffs on imports. On day one under this scenario, the U.K. would charge 10 percent to car importers and as much as 35 percent for dairy products, for example.
British people would also immediately lose the right to move freely across the bloc.
The government has spent more than £4.2 billion ($5.5 billion) in preparing the country for this scenario, with the state-run National Health Service investing in a large number of fridges to stockpile medicines and even extra body bags.
Some believe this to be the best course of action for the country as it would allow the government to sign bilateral trade deals with any country in the world. E.U. members cannot do this.
Bale, the professor, pointed out that Brexit could potentially only be delayed by a matter of weeks.
“If she can’t cobble something together with Jeremy Corbyn that would get through the House of Commons, we’d still be left with the situation where no deal is possible on or around May 22,” he said.
An American citizen and her local guide have been abducted during a game ride in a prominent tourist park in Uganda, a U.S federal official confirmed to Fox News on Wednesday.
The incident is believed to have happened between 6 and 7 pm Tuesday near a wilderness camp in Queen Elizabeth National Park, where two armed men held four tourists at gunpoint. Two were rescued and alerted authorities.
However, the mobile phone of the American woman, who has been identified as Kimberley Sue Endecott, 35, was used to make a ransom demand of $500,000, according to Ugandan police. It is unclear where she is being held.
ISIS RECRUITMENT DRIVE IN SOMALIA COULD PROVE 'MASSIVE THREAT TO THE US PRESENCE' IN THE REGION
“The police dispatched an elite squad from the Tourism Police to reinforce security teams and actively pursue a group of 4 unknown gunmen,” the Deputy Police Spokesperson Polly Namaye said in a statement, noting that they believe the victims are likely still in the area. “We want to further reassure the public that this is the first incident of this kind registered in such a very peaceful setting.”
The U.S. official confirmed to Fox News that they are currently in the process of trying to gather all the details of the alleged ransom demand.
The exit between the park and the Democratic Republic of Congo has since been closed. It is not yet known which group or individuals are behind the kidnapping.
Somali Islamist group al Shabaab has launched attacks in Uganda in the past, but it has never kidnapped anyone for ransom, according to Reuters.
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By Alexander Smith, Vivi Vitalone and Alanna Satur
An American tourist and her local driver have been kidnapped by gunmen in Uganda, local officials said Wednesday.
An elite police unit was deployed to hunt for the pair after they were ambushed while on safari in Queen Elizabeth National Park on Tuesday night, according to the Ugandan government and police.
Local police and the national tourist board identified the American woman as Kimberly Sue, 35. Investigators said the driver's name was Jean Paul.
The assailants used one of the victims' cellphones to call authorities and demand $500,000 for their release, police said, adding that they "strongly believe this ransom is the reason behind the kidnap."
At least two other people, named by police as Martin and Barbel Julius, were traveling with the group near the border with Democratic Republic of Congo.
The four kidnappers abducted the American and the driver, taking their keys but leaving the vehicle behind, according to police. The others in the vehicle escaped unharmed and later contacted authorities. The government earlier said that four people had escaped the incident.
Police said they have blocked the nearby border in an attempt to corner the kidnappers.
"We strongly believe the perpetrators and victims could still be trapped within our search area," police said. "We are hopeful that our efforts will lead to their successful recovery."
NBC News has reached out to the State Department for comment.
Queen Elizabeth National Park is Uganda's most popular tourist destination. It is home to elephants, hippos, lions and chimps.
Abigail Williams contributed.
Journalist Samson Ntale contributed to this story.