As Brexit deadlock stands, here's what could happen next - CNBC

Drastic measures surrounding Brexit — including a no-deal departure or a snap general election — could be on the cards after the British Parliament failed yet again to agree on any alternative options.

Having rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal three times, U.K. Members of Parliament (MPs) voted Monday evening on four alternative options in the process, but all of them were rejected by a majority of lawmakers.

The option that came the closest to gaining a majority was a proposal to keep Britain in a permanent customs union with the EU. Meanwhile, a proposal for a confirmatory referendum on any deal got the most votes but was defeated by 292 to 280.

There is an increasing expectation now that Britain could go in one of four directions — toward a no-deal departure from the bloc, holding a snap general election, Parliament agreeing to the U.K. remaining within a customs union with the EU and/or holding a confirmatory referendum on any eventual strategy.

The defeat of alternative proposals has thrown British politics and Brexit into further confusion just days ahead of a default "no-deal" departure from the EU. There is also a tangible sense of disbelief in Europe at the inability of the U.K. to agree on Brexit.

Speaking in Brussels Tuesday, the bloc's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said a no-deal departure was becoming more likely "by the day," and that a strong justification would be needed for the EU to agree to a longer Brexit delay.

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay reminded Parliament Monday night that Britain was scheduled to leave the EU on April 12 if no deal was in place. A no-deal exit is seen as a dreaded cliff-edge scenario for businesses where the country has the rely on WTO trading rules.

But another delay to the departure date may need to be lengthy with the U.K. being urged to participate in EU Parliamentary elections in late May. A lengthy delay is a concern for pro-Brexit politicians who worry that it could lead to the whole process losing momentum.

Prime Minister May could attempt to hold a fourth vote on her Brexit deal later this week, despite three earlier defeats of the withdrawal agreement. Meanwhile, opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for another round of so-called "indicative votes" for Wednesday.

Sterling fell almost 1 percent to $1.3048 following the votes Monday night and was trading around the same mark Tuesday morning; London's FTSE 100 index was 0.3 percent higher in early deals.

Steen Jakobson, chief investment officer at Saxobank, told CNBC Tuesday that parliamentary debates over Brexit resembled a "trench war."

"If we go to the market implication, the hard no-deal (Brexit) has to be priced higher and higher for every hour that passes without any decision."

As Parliament shows itself so far unwilling to find a compromise, Brexit watchers have spoken of the possibility of a snap general election. How that could turn out is anyone's guess with Brexit throwing up unprecedented division among lawmakers and the public.

J.P. Morgan Economist Malcolm Barr noted that "the next day or so is likely to involve no small amount of finger pointing among those seeking either a 'softer' Brexit or a 'People's vote'." A People's Vote refers to a referendum on the Brexit deal on offer or revoking the whole departure process.

"We continue to think that a general election is the single most likely path forward in the coming weeks, even though that event raises a lot of questions for politicians on all sides," Barr said in a note Monday evening.

"With the indicative votes process having come so close to identifying a 'softer' path tonight, it looks likely more bargaining and tweaks to the motions will generate a positive outturn on Wednesday. It is not clear to us how PM May can forestall that, and the potential split in her party that could follow."

The EU's Barnier signaled that the bloc could accept a customs union with the U.K. but noted that the only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit "will be through a positive majority in the House of Commons" (the lower house of Parliament) putting the ball back in the U.K.'s court.

Lutfey Siddiqi, visiting professor-in-practice at the London School of Economics, told CNBC he believed that a middle way would still be found.

"Parliament has no appetite for a no-deal Brexit or no Brexit … I can see a center of gravity emerging in Parliament where it's towards a customs union perhaps with a confirmatory vote," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" Tuesday.

"It's a game of brinkmanship (with the EU). We've got these two cars hurtling towards each other but in the British car there's a tussle going on both for the steering wheel and for the GPS navigation system. That makes it very hard to predict the exact sequence (of events)."

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2019-04-02 08:16:16Z
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Pentagon stops deliveries of F-35 parts, manuals to Turkey over purchase of Russian air defense system - Fox News

An F-35 fighter jet is seen in this undated photo. The Pentagon announced it "suspended" deliveries of F-35 fighter jet parts and manuals to Turkey over the Middle Eastern country's decision to purchase a Russian air defense system over Washington's objection. (U.S. Marine Corps Photo by Cpl. Deseree Kamm, File)

The Department of Defense announced Monday that it "suspended" deliveries of F-35 fighter jet parts and manuals to Turkey over the Middle Eastern country's decision to purchase a Russian air defense system over Washington's objection.

The U.S. had agreed to sell 100 of its latest, fifth-generation F-35 fighters to Turkey, initially planning to deliver the first two aircraft to Turkey in June. However, top government officials repeatedly have threatened to stop the sale if Ankara did not abandon efforts to buy the Russian S-400 system.

"The United States has been clear that Turkey's acquisition of the S-400 is unacceptable," said acting Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers Jr., who added: "[U]ntil they forgo delivery of the S-400, the United States has suspended deliveries and activities associated with the stand-up of Turkey's F-35 operational capability.  Should Turkey procure the S-400, their continued participation in the F-35 program is at risk."

The U.S. move came just three days after Turkey's foreign minister said his country, a NATO ally, was committed to the deal to buy the Russian system and was discussing delivery dates.

"As a principle, it is contrary to international laws for a third country to oppose an agreement between two countries," Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a joint news conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. "We are committed to this agreement. There can be no such thing as selling to a third country. We are buying them for our own needs."

Cavusoglu also insisted Turkey had met all of its obligations concerning the F-35 program.

The U.S. and other NATO allies have complained repeatedly about the purchase, saying it was not compatible with other allied systems and would represent a threat to the F-35.

Last month, Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, the outgoing Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that "my best military advice would be that we don't then follow through with the F-35, flying it or working with an ally that is working with Russian systems, particularly air defense systems."

Officials also have expressed concerns that Turkey's acquisition of both U.S. and Russian systems could give Moscow access to sophisticated American technology and allow it to find ways to counter the F-35.

Pentagon leaders have warned that ending Turkey's participation in production likely would force other allies to take on that role and could delay aircraft delivery.

Summers said Monday that the Pentagon "has initiated steps necessary to ensure prudent program planning and resiliency of the F-35 supply chain. Secondary sources of supply for Turkish-produced parts are now in development.

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"We very much regret the current situation facing our F-35 partnership with Turkey, and the DoD is taking prudent steps to protect the shared investments made in our critical technology," he said.

U.S. leaders have pressed Turkey to buy an American-made air defense battery, and in December the State Department approved the sale of a $3.5 billion U.S. Patriot system to Ankara.

Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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2019-04-02 07:02:46Z
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Pentagon stops deliveries of F-35 parts, manuals to Turkey over purchase of Russian air defense system - Fox News

An F-35 fighter jet is seen in this undated photo. The Pentagon announced it "suspended" deliveries of F-35 fighter jet parts and manuals to Turkey over the Middle Eastern country's decision to purchase a Russian air defense system over Washington's objection. (U.S. Marine Corps Photo by Cpl. Deseree Kamm, File)

The Department of Defense announced Monday that it "suspended" deliveries of F-35 fighter jet parts and manuals to Turkey over the Middle Eastern country's decision to purchase a Russian air defense system over Washington's objection.

The U.S. had agreed to sell 100 of its latest, fifth-generation F-35 fighters to Turkey, initially planning to deliver the first two aircraft to Turkey in June. However, top government officials repeatedly have threatened to stop the sale if Ankara did not abandon efforts to buy the Russian S-400 system.

"The United States has been clear that Turkey's acquisition of the S-400 is unacceptable," said acting Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers Jr., who added: "[U]ntil they forgo delivery of the S-400, the United States has suspended deliveries and activities associated with the stand-up of Turkey's F-35 operational capability.  Should Turkey procure the S-400, their continued participation in the F-35 program is at risk."

The U.S. move came just three days after Turkey's foreign minister said his country, a NATO ally, was committed to the deal to buy the Russian system and was discussing delivery dates.

"As a principle, it is contrary to international laws for a third country to oppose an agreement between two countries," Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a joint news conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. "We are committed to this agreement. There can be no such thing as selling to a third country. We are buying them for our own needs."

Cavusoglu also insisted Turkey had met all of its obligations concerning the F-35 program.

The U.S. and other NATO allies have complained repeatedly about the purchase, saying it was not compatible with other allied systems and would represent a threat to the F-35.

Last month, Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, the outgoing Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that "my best military advice would be that we don't then follow through with the F-35, flying it or working with an ally that is working with Russian systems, particularly air defense systems."

Officials also have expressed concerns that Turkey's acquisition of both U.S. and Russian systems could give Moscow access to sophisticated American technology and allow it to find ways to counter the F-35.

Pentagon leaders have warned that ending Turkey's participation in production likely would force other allies to take on that role and could delay aircraft delivery.

Summers said Monday that the Pentagon "has initiated steps necessary to ensure prudent program planning and resiliency of the F-35 supply chain. Secondary sources of supply for Turkish-produced parts are now in development.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

"We very much regret the current situation facing our F-35 partnership with Turkey, and the DoD is taking prudent steps to protect the shared investments made in our critical technology," he said.

U.S. leaders have pressed Turkey to buy an American-made air defense battery, and in December the State Department approved the sale of a $3.5 billion U.S. Patriot system to Ankara.

Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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2019-04-02 06:22:37Z
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Brexit: Parliament rejects soft Brexit, second referendum - The Washington Post

BREAKING NEWS: British Lawmakers, who have earned a reputation for voting “no” on everything Brexit, failed to muster a majority on Monday for any of four possible ways forward.

The votes were all non-binding, and several were close. The slimmest was for a soft Brexit involving a new customs union with the European Union, which failed by 3 — 276 to 273. A proposal to require a public vote before any Brexit deal can be ratified failed by 12 — 292 to 280. Meanwhile, a proposal for a Norway-like relationship failed by 21 — 282 to 261.

Nick Boles, whip of Theresa May’s Conservative Party, announced his resignation immediately after, saying, “I have failed chiefly because my party refuses to compromise.”

The focus will now turn to the British prime minister and the question of whether she will put her own thrice-rejected Brexit deal to another vote.

On what to expect on Tuesday, House of Commons Speaker John Bercow offered:“I can’t say with any confidence what will happen, and, in that respect, I think I’m, frankly, not in a minority.”

This is a developing story and will be updated.

LONDON — On Monday, Parliament will again try to seize the steering wheel from Prime Minister Theresa May, as the House of Commons stages votes on four proposals on how to exit the European Union.

Among the top options are two that would call for much softer Brexit than May has envisioned.

The two proposals would see Britain remain in closely tied to European trade rules and tariff regimes. One option would essentially mean that Britain would surrender its ability to control European immigration. The other would likely keep Britain from setting off to strike its own independent trade deals.

Trade experts, describing the two options, say they could deliver a kind of “ultra-soft” Brexit, that sees Britain “take back a bit of control.” 

Another popular option may push the government to stage a second referendum to take the questions of how or whether to leave back to the people.

And the fourth essentially seeks to cancel Brexit.

These will be non-binding “indicative votes,” expressing the will of Parliament. An earlier round of votes failed to produce a majority for any of eight proposals last week. But a big shift by the Labour Party and other political maneuvering may change the math on Monday evening.

All this comes amid growing signs that the British prime minister has lost control of Brexit, her party and her cabinet.

The Conservative Party is open revolt. Over the weekend, a bloc of 170 Conservative members, including 10 cabinet ministers, wrote to May demanding that Britain leave the E.U. “with or without a deal,” according to the Sunday Times of London.

Her cabinet, meanwhile, is now staffed by coup plotters and direct competitors. Hardline Brexiteers and those ministers pushing for a softer Brexter are both threatening to resign if they don’t get their way.

The government secretaries have become so unruly that May’s own chief whip, Julian Smith, in a rare on-the-record interview with the BBC, described them as the “worst example of ill-discipline in cabinet in British political history.”

Smith’s bold statement of unprecedented bad behavior was remarkable not only for what he said — but who said it. 

Chief whips are supposed to be like Victorian children in the extreme, never seen nor heard. They are virtually invisible to the world outside the Palace of Westminster, and their one and only job is to enforce party discipline; in other words, to “whip” their members — via text and WhatsApp group — to vote one way or another.

In his remarks, Smith also said that after the results of the 2017 general election, when the Conservative Party dramatically lost its parliamentary majority, May should have been clear that the result would spell a softer kind of Brexit.

Instead, May made bold speeches and erected red lines.

And yet, May still could get her deal passed. Her supporters say it is likely that the prime minister will try a fourth time to get it through the House of Commons.

Why would lawmakers approve on a fourth vote that which they have rejected three times before? May’s latest threat: If her Conservative members don’t rally round her deal, she will call for a general election.

This appears an empty threat by a weakened party leader. In part because the latest opinion surveys show the opposition Labour Party are polling nearly even with the Tories — despite Labour being equally divided between “leavers” and “remainers.” In that environment, it’s hard to see Conservatives helping to provide the two-thirds majority required for a general election.

Last week, May said she would step down if her deal finally, somehow, gets over the finish line, thus allowing someone else to take the reins in the second phase of Brexit negotiations. May could by replaced as leader of the government by her own party without the need for a general election. 

In no time at all, Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and a favorite to replace May as Conservative leader, dropped his opposition and backed May’s deal.

“We need to get Brexit done, because we have so much more to do, and so much more that unites the Conservative party than divides us,” Johnson wrote in Monday’s Daily Telegraph, which sounded to some like a leadership bid. 

“We have so many achievements to be proud of – and yet every single one is being drowned out in the Brexit cacophony,” Johnson said.

On Monday, Parliament was scheduled to first discuss the more than 6 million citizens who signed an online petition to cancel Brexit, making it the most popular petition ever hosted on Parliament’s website.

On Monday evening, Parliament will renew its attempt to find an alternative to May’s deal.

One soft Brexit option could include a commitment to remain in a “permanent customs union” with the E.U. — such an arrangement allows those within the union to trade freely without tariffs, but sets an external tariff on all goods coming into the bloc. Such a deal would make it hard for Britain to go global and cut its own trade deals abroad, as it would be locked into E.U. tariff regimes. But it could control European immigration. 

Another soft Brexit option is a Norway-style relationship that would involve staying in the E.U. single, or common, market. This path may allow Britain to seek trade deals outside the E.U., but would likely mean that Britain would have to allow for free movement of E.U. citizens into Britain.

When Parliament held similar series of “indicative votes” last week, the closest over the customs union, which only lost by six votes.

Some Conservatives remain deeply opposed to these options, in part because they see it as “Brexit in name only,” crossing all their red lines — preventing Britain from striking new trade deals with countries like the United States and China while keeping the borders wide-open to European migrants.

Steve Baker, a Conservative lawmaker and arch Brexiteer, is one of those adamantly opposed. He told the BBC that joining opposition parties and supporting a vote of no-confidence in the May government was “on the table” if the government were to adopt this option.

Ken Clarke, a veteran Conservative lawmaker who proposed the customs union motion, told the BBC that the option would indeed limit Britain in its ability to agree tariff concessions to non-member E.U. countries. But he pointed out that Britain could strike trade deals on services, which make up about 80 percent of the British economy. He added some Brexiteers espousing the benefits of Global Britain striking new trade deals with countries like America are “getting carried away.” 

The idea that “Donald Trump is going to suddenly open up his market to us with joy because he’s so pleased we’ve damaged the European Union. That is total nonsense,” Clarke said.

Read more

Frexit? Italeave? After watching Brexit, other European countries say: No, thanks.

What is Brexit? Britain’s political drama, explained.

Brits pretend they’re sick of Brexit. But truth is they’re obsessed.

Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world

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2019-04-01 21:20:41Z
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UK Parliament is voting on 4 Brexit alternatives. Here’s why it matters. - Vox.com

The British Parliament is voting yet again on Monday, in another attempt to try to break the Brexit impasse.

Members of Parliament (MPs) will try to see if they can agree on a new plan for the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union by holding another round of “indicative votes.”

This is a follow-up to last Wednesday’s vote, when Parliament seized control of the Brexit process. Lawmakers debated and voted on eight Brexit options, from softer Brexit plans to a no-deal Brexit.

No plan won a majority in Parliament, although a few alternatives came close, including one option that would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU after the breakup.

Monday’s vote in Parliament is a second attempt to agree on one of those alternative plans. The options have been whittled down to the four, and the finalists chosen for a second vote mirror the plans that got a fair amount of support last week, but failed to win outright.

The hope is that now, with fewer choices on the ballot and time running out ahead of the April 12 Brexit deadline, MPs will rally behind a particular plan and offer up a Brexit compromise that can end the political stalemate and uncertainty.

Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow selected four measures for Monday’s vote. Parliament is voting on two types of plans. The first involve different Brexit outcomes, meaning measures that would fundamentally change the type of EU-UK divorce on offer by putting forward a softer-style Brexit.

The others focus on process. This applies to the second referendum choice, or “confirmatory public vote,” as it’s being called, which would put any deal approved by Parliament back to the people — but since Parliament hasn’t accepted any plan, it’s not clear what that would be just yet.

The results are expected to come in at about 10:30 pm London time (5:30 pm EST):

• Customs union

This plan would allow for the UK to retain a form of membership in the customs union post-Brexit, which means the UK would continue to follow all the EU customs rules. Parliament defeated this plan last week by a margin of eight votes, 264-272.

• Common market 2.0

This is a very “soft” Brexit proposal, meaning the UK and the EU would have very close economic ties. The model for this is Norway, which is not an EU member but has access to the EU single market (which broadly means free movement of goods, capital, services, and people) through seeking membership in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) — which is made up of of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Liechtenstein — and European Economic Area.

This plan would also call for negotiating membership in the customs union (which Norway doesn’t have), at least until the EU and UK could come up with a trade arrangement to guarantee an open border between Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (an EU member-state).

This was voted down 188-283 last week, but support for this plan has shot up since. The big reason for this change is the opposition Labour Party is now in favor of this plan and is whipping votes, trying to force members to back this measure. Labour has its own soft Brexit plan that was defeated last week, but it’s not on the ballot this time around, so Labour leaders are giving support to this plan.

• Second referendum

This says that any Brexit deal approved by Parliament has to go back to the public for a “confirmatory” vote. To be clear, it doesn’t say exactly what will be on the ballot, just that the public gets a say in the final deal. This got the most “aye” votes last week, with 268, but 295 people still voted against it.

• If all else fails, revoke Article 50

This plan would seek an extension to Brexit, and if that doesn’t happen, requests the prime minister stop Brexit by revoking Article 50 if the Parliament can’t approve a deal before the Brexit deadline and agrees it does not want to leave the EU without a plan. (Article 50 is the mechanism in the EU’s Lisbon Treaty that the UK is using to leave the bloc.) This plan lost 184-293 last week.

The above options comprise Parliament’s “Final Four.” But it’s still unclear what happens if one of them — or more than one — ends up with majority support this time around.

A lot will depend on Prime Minister Theresa May, who lost another vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement last Friday. These indicative votes are nonbinding, meaning they can’t technically force May to do anything.

The prime minister has established certain “red lines” in Brexit — meaning things she would not compromise on — such as withdrawing the UK from EU institutions like the single market and customs union. These alternative Brexit plans clash with those red lines, and agreeing to them would infuriate the hardline pro-Brexit crowd in her party. And yet — May might not really have a choice if she wants to avoid the UK crashing out of the EU on April 12 without a deal.

And the European Union also matters here. It’ll have to agree to any plan the UK puts forward and may be forced to grant the UK a much longer Brexit extension.

A useful chart by Simon Usherwood, deputy director at the independent think tank UK in a Changing Europe, shows that the EU would be amenable to most of these plans — although not all of them are free from complications.

Parliament is the closest it’s ever been to charting a new Brexit course. But there’s no guarantee that MPs will succeed, and they could easily fail once again to agree to any of these four plans.

And whatever MPs decide Monday — if they decide — still has to be implemented, for real this time. If politicians fail to come to a consensus, then the UK is facing the prospect of a no-deal Brexit on April 12, or will likely need to ask the EU for a much, much longer extension.

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2019-04-01 20:10:00Z
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Venezuelans struggle to understand power rationing plan - Fox News

FILE - In this March 29, 2019 file photo, a man on crutches is illuminated by headlights of oncoming traffic, in Caracas, Venezuela. Venezuelans are struggling to understand the Sunday, March 31, 2019 announcement that the nation’s electricity is being rationed to combat daily blackouts. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko, File)

CARACAS, Venezuela – Venezuelans are struggling to understand an announcement that the nation's electricity is being rationed to combat daily blackouts.

Office worker Raquel Mayorca said Monday she didn't know if her lights were off because of another power failure — or whether it was part of the government's plans. She said the power was out on one side of the street, but working on the other.

President Nicolas Maduro said a day earlier that he was instituting a 30-day plan to ration electricity but provided no details.

He called on Venezuelans to be calm, accusing U.S.-backed opponents of launching an attack on the power grid.

Opposition leader Juan Guaido says years of government neglect have left the grid in shambles.

He asked people to take to the streets to overthrow Maduro's government.

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2019-04-01 18:12:14Z
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Algerian leader to resign from office by end of April after weeks of street protests - The Washington Post

CAIRO-Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will resign by the end of April, his office announced in a statement Monday carried by the country’s state media, following weeks of massive street protests calling for the end of his two decades in power.

The president, the statement said, would resign before April 28 and would take measures “to ensure state institutions continue to function during the transition period.”

If Bouteflika carries out his promise, he would become the fifth Arab leader to be pushed out of office by populist pressure since the 2011 Arab Spring revolts, following the path of autocrats in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen. He is Algeria’s longest-serving head of state.

The announcement Monday came a week after Algeria’s powerful army chief, Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah, publicly urged that Bouteflika be declared unfit for office and called for his removal. Salah is considered one of the most influential power brokers in the country. In deciding to part ways with Bouteflika, Salah was the latest in a wave of allies who have abandoned him.

Tens of thousands of Algerians across the North African country have taken to the streets since early last month. The outpouring of anger was triggered by Bouteflika’s decision to seek a fifth term in office.

Under pressure, he dropped his bid for a fifth term and postponed elections scheduled for this month. But large street protests continued as many Algerians saw his move as an attempt to extend his fourth term and demanded his immediate resignation.

The ailing 82-year-old leader, who is wheel-chair bound and has rarely been seen in public since suffering a stroke in 2013, has ruled since 1999.

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Algeria’s powerful army chief calls for president to be declared unfit for office

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2019-04-01 17:37:38Z
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