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With Brexit plans adrift, protesters jam London to demand that ‘the people’ decide - The Washington Post

LONDON — The struggle over Brexit spilled onto the streets of London on Saturday in a major protest to demand that the question be put back to the people with a fresh vote that would include the option of staying in the European Union.

Organizers say that the “Put It to the People” march could be one of the biggest Britain has ever seen. The rally comes as an online petition calling for Brexit to be canceled surged past 4 million signatures.

Demonstrators from the Scottish Highlands and the Cornish coast were descending on the British capital on Saturday morning, spilling out of buses and subway stations with placards that read “Brexit, it’s getting silly now” and “Democracy is Knowing What You Voted For.”

Politicians including the London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon were expected to address the rally later in the day.

The mass mobilization comes after a week of turmoil and confusion, where seemingly everything and nothing changed.

After a summit in Brussels, Britain’s Brexit Day was pushed back from March 29 until at least April 12, but remains unclear whether Britain will truly leave then or at a later deadline of May 22 or at all. (Cue cheering from the protesters at Parliament Square.)

Britain’s beleaguered Prime Minister Theresa May could try to muscle her twice-rejected deal through Parliament next week. But if that fails — and the odds are against her — then Britain could be headed for a softer Brexit, or a no-deal Brexit, or a general election or even, yes, a second referendum.

Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the prospect of a second referendum has gone from something once barely imaginable to something remotely possible.

Critics argue that a second referendum would be deeply damaging to democracy and a betrayal of those who chose to leave in Britain’s largest vote ever.

Politicians cannot, they say, keep asking the public the same question until it gets the answer it wants.

[Frustrated businesses ask: Will Brexit happen? When? And how?]

Supporters of a second plebiscite say that the first referendum was a singular moment in time and point to allegations of rule-breaking by the campaigns for and against. Besides, they argue, shouldn’t people be allowed to have a say on the actual Brexit deal on the table — isn’t that democratic, too?

With only who-knows-how-many days to go until Britain leaves the European Union, Brexit remains a divisive issue.

But the atmosphere has grown overheated — and toxic.

Anna Soubry, a lawmaker who quit May’s Conservative Party to join a new Independent Group, said she has received death threats for her pro-E.U. position on Brexit. She urged the public who supported a second referendum to come out on Saturday to deflate that kind of abuse.

Attitudes on Britain’s E.U. membership have shifted since 2016, when Britons voted 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the European Union.

For most of the past year, polls have shown a slight majority would now opt to remain in the bloc. Pollsters say that the small but persistent swing is partly down to changing demographics. Younger people are overwhelmingly pro-E.U., and those teens who couldn’t vote in 2016 are now of voting age. The majority of voters 65 and older voted to leave the bloc, and some of them have since died.

But if a do-over is going to happen, then it’s not just the people cheering and chanting outside of Parliament on Saturday that need to get behind the idea. Only a handful of Conservatives lawmakers are calling for a second referendum, and while the opposition parties back the idea, support from some quarters seems lukewarm.

A second referendum would also take an estimated five months to organize, and there is the vexing issue of what to put on the ballot paper. It would also probably mean that Britain would have to take part in European Parliament elections, which for some is deeply undesirable.

“It’s unlikely at the moment, simply because there just doesn’t seem to be support for Parliament at the moment,” said Anand Menon, a professor of European politics at King’s College London. But, he added, that in these febrile times, “anything is a possibility.”

The British prime minister has made it clear she is opposed to a second referendum. If she doesn’t pass her withdrawal deal on its third outing, however, then Parliament could start to seize control of the Brexit process. One option is to hold a series of “indicative votes” that would help to sift out what Parliament does want.

Some second referendum campaigners say that sequencing is everything and that a new plebiscite has the best shot of becoming a possibility if other options are first disregarded.

Of course, Britain could just cancel the whole Brexit mess. A petition to revoke Article 50 — effectively the E.U. exit papers — is now one of the most popular petitions on the British Parliament’s website.

But even though Britain can, in theory, pull the plug on Brexit, the more likely route to staying in the European Union would be by putting a vote to the people again.

That’s what Emma Knuckey, 38, said she wants. She voted to leave in 2016 in part because of the infamous red double decker bus with its claim that money sent to the European Union could instead be used to fund Britain’s national health-care system.

She’s no longer persuaded by the argument that Brexit would mean more money for Britain’s beloved health service and says she doesn’t like how E.U. citizens living in Britain have been used as “bargaining chips.”

“I’d rather put it to the people,” she said. “I don’t want people to be in any kind of limbo because I was swayed over by a mistake,” she said.

William Booth contributed to this report.

May’s party sheds supporters disgusted over Brexit hard-liners.

What on Earth is going on with Brexit now? Britain’s ongoing drama, explained.

Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world

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2019-03-23 13:30:04Z
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Italy joins China's New Silk Road project - BBC News

Italy has become the first developed economy to sign up to China's global investment programme which has raised concerns among Italy's Western allies.

A total of 29 deals amounting to €7bn ($8bn; £6bn) were signed during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Rome.

The project is seen as a new Silk Road which, just like the ancient trade route, aims to link China to Europe.

Italy's European Union allies and the United States have expressed concern at China's growing influence.

What is the Chinese project about?

The new Silk Road has another name - the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - and it involves a wave of Chinese funding for major infrastructure projects around the world, in a bid to speed Chinese goods to markets further afield. Critics see it as also representing a bold bid for geo-political and strategic influence.

It has already funded trains, roads, and ports, with Chinese construction firms given lucrative contracts to connect ports and cities - funded by loans from Chinese banks.

The levels of debt owed by African and South Asian nations to China have raised concerns in the West and among citizens - but roads and railways have been built that would not exist otherwise:

In Uganda, Chinese millions built a 50km (30 mile) road to the international airport
In Tanzania, a small coastal town may become the continent's largest port
In Europe too, Chinese firms managed to buy 51% of the port authority in Piraeus port near Athens in 2016, after years of economic crisis in Greece

What projects were signed in Rome?

On behalf of Italy, Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, leader of the populist Five Star Movement, signed the umbrella deal making Italy formally part of the Economic Silk Road and The Initiative for a Maritime Silk Road for the 21st Century.

Ministers then signed deals over energy, finance, and agricultural produce, followed by the heads of big Italian gas and energy, shipbuilding and engineering firms - which will be offered entry into the Chinese market.

China's Communications and Construction Company will be given access to the port of Trieste to enable links to central and eastern Europe. The Chinese will also be involved in developing the port of Genoa.

What's in it for Italy?

Italy is the first member of the G7 group of developed world economies to take money offered by China.

It is one of the world's top 10 largest economies - yet Rome finds itself in a curious situation.

The collapse of the Genoa bridge in August killed dozens of people and made Italy's crumbling infrastructure a major political issue for the first time in decades.

And Italy's economy is far from booming.

The country slipped into recession at the end of 2018, and its national debt levels are among the highest in the eurozone. Italy's populist government came to power in June 2018 with high-spending plans but had to peg them back after a stand-off with the EU.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hailed the deals.

"Italy and China should develop more efficient ties and build better relations," Mr Conte said at the signing ceremony.

There is, however, dissent within his government. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who heads the right-wing League, was conspicuously absent from all official ceremonies.

Mr Salvini has warned that he does not want to see foreign businesses "colonising" Italy.

"Before allowing someone to invest in the ports of Trieste or Genoa, I would think about it not once but a hundred times," Mr Salvini warned.

What's in it for China?

Italy's move is "largely symbolic", according to Peter Frankopan, professor of Global History at Oxford University and a writer on The Silk Roads.

But even Rome admitting the BRI is worth exploring "has a value for Beijing", he said.

"It adds gloss to the existing scheme and also shows that China has an important global role."

"The seemingly innocuous move comes at a sensitive time for Europe and the European Union, where there is suddenly a great deal of trepidation not only about China, but about working out how Europe or the EU should adapt and react to a changing world," Prof Frankopan told the BBC.

"But there is more at stake here too," he added. "If investment does not come from China to build ports, refineries, railway lines and so on, then where will it come from?"

Grappling with China's growing power

The "made in Italy" label carries a reputation for quality worldwide, and is legally protected for products items processed "mainly" in Italy.

In recent years, Chinese factories based in Italy using Chinese labour have been challenging that mark of quality.

Better connections for cheap raw materials from China - and the return of finished products from Italy - could exaggerate that practice.

'Predatory' investment

The agreements signed in Rome come amid questions over whether Chinese firm Huawei should be permitted to build essential communications networks - after the United States expressed concern they could help Beijing spy on the West.

That was not part of the negotiations in Italy.

But a little over a week before the deal was due to be signed, the European Commission released a joint statement on "China's growing economic power and political influence" and the need to "review" relations.

As President Xi toured Rome, EU leaders in Brussels considered their approach for relations with China.

"Our aim is to focus on achieving a balanced relation, which ensures fair competition and equal market access," Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, said.

In March, US National Security Council spokesman Garrett Marquis pointed out that Italy was a major economy and did not need to "lend legitimacy to China's vanity infrastructure project".

Setting the scene

Italian officials have been keen to point out that the deal they signed is not an international treaty, and is non-binding.

Other European nations already accept Chinese investment through something called the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, he said - something the UK was the first to sign up to.

"And then one by one, France, Germany, Italy and everyone else also followed suit," Italy's undersecretary of state for trade and investment, Michele Geraci, says.

Similarly, he believes Italy's neighbours will soon follow it into the Belt and Road initiative.

"I do believe that this time Italy is actually leading Europe - which I understand may be a surprise to most," he added.

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2019-03-23 12:58:32Z
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Islamic State defeated, 'caliphate' eliminated says U.S. ally in Syria - Reuters

DEIR AL-ZOR PROVINCE, Syria (Reuters) - U.S.-backed forces said they had captured Islamic State’s last shred of territory in eastern Syria at Baghouz on Saturday, ending its territorial rule over a self-proclaimed caliphate after years of fighting.

FILE PHOTO: Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand together in the village of Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province, Syria, March 20, 2019. Picture taken March 20, 2019. REUTERS/Rodi Said/File Photo

“Baghouz has been liberated. The military victory against Daesh has been accomplished,” Mustafa Bali, a Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) spokesman, wrote on Twitter, declaring the “total elimination of (the) so-called caliphate”.

At a victory ceremony near Baghouz, a brass band in red uniforms with gold brocade played the American national anthem in front of a stars and stripes flag and yellow militia banners. SDF leaders including both men and women sat watching.

However, a Reuters journalist at Baghouz said some shooting and mortar fire continued on Saturday morning and an SDF commander warned that the coming phase in the struggle, with jihadist sleeper cells plotting mayhem, might be even harder.

The final battle lasted weeks as huge numbers of civilians poured out, and for many Kurdish fighters in the SDF, victory was sweeter as it coincided with their “Now Ruz” new year.

Though the defeat of Islamic State in Baghouz ends the group’s grip over the jihadist quasi-state straddling Syria and Iraq that it declared in 2014, it remains a threat.

Some of its fighters still hold out in Syria’s remote central desert and in Iraqi cities they have slipped into the shadows, staging sudden shootings or kidnappings and awaiting a chance to rise again.

The United States believes the group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is in Iraq. He stood at the pulpit of the great medieval mosque in Mosul in 2014 to declare himself caliph, sovereign over all Muslims.

Further afield, jihadists in Afghanistan, Nigeria and elsewhere have shown no sign of recanting their allegiance to Islamic State, and intelligence services say its devotees in the West might plot new attacks.

Still, the fall of Baghouz is a big milestone in a fight against the jihadist group waged by numerous local and global forces - some of them sworn enemies - over more than four years.

It also marks a big moment in Syria’s eight-year war, wiping out the territory of one of the main contestants, with the rest split between President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey-backed rebels and the Kurdish-led SDF.

Assad and his Iranian allies have sworn to recapture all Syria, and Turkey has threatened to drive out the SDF, which it sees as a terrorist group, by force. The continued presence of U.S. troops in northeast Syria might avert this.

GRISLY RULE

Islamic State originated as an al Qaeda faction in Iraq, but it took advantage of Syria’s civil war to seize land there and split from the global jihadist organization.

In 2014, it suddenly grabbed Iraq’s Mosul, one of the region’s great historic cities, as well as Syria’s Raqqa, and swathes of land each side of the border.

It declared an end to modern countries and called on supporters to leave their homes and join the jihadist utopia it claimed to be erecting, trumpeting its currency, flag, passports and military parades.

Oil production, extortion and stolen antiquities financed its agenda, which included slaughtering some minorities, public slave auctions of captured women, grotesque punishments for minor crimes and the choreographed killing of hostages.

Those excesses brought an array of forces against it, forcing it from Mosul and Raqqa in a year of heavy defeats in 2017 and driving it, eventually, down the Euphrates to Baghouz.

Over the past two months some 60,000 people poured out of that dwindling enclave, fleeing SDF bombardment and a shortage of food so severe that some said they were reduced to cooking grass.

Intense air strikes throughout the campaign have leveled entire districts and rights groups have said they killed many civilians, allegations the coalition has often disputed.

A mass grave the SDF discovered last month showed there were other dangers in the enclave, though it has released no details on the identities of the victims or how they died.

Civilians made up more than half the people leaving Baghouz, the SDF said, including Islamic State victims such as women from the Iraqi Yazidi sect whom the jihadists had sexually enslaved.

Thousands of the group’s unbending supporters also abandoned the enclave while still vowing their allegiance to a ruined caliphate and showing no remorse for its victims.

At displacement camps in northeast Syria where they were sent by the SDF, the hardliners, including many foreign women who came to Syria and Iraq to marry jihadists, had to be kept away from other, often traumatized, residents.

Their fate has befuddled foreign governments, who see them as a security threat and are loath to accede to SDF entreaties to take them back home.

DEFEAT

As the fighting progressed, the convoys of trucks from Baghouz started to include hundreds, and then thousands, of surrendering jihadist fighters, many hobbling from their wounds.

The SDF said it captured hundreds more in recent weeks who tried to slip through its cordon and escape into Iraq or across the Euphrates and into the Syrian desert.

At the end, they were besieged in a tiny camp full of rusting vehicles and makeshift shelters, pinned against the Euphrates and overlooked by hills held by the SDF.

Islamic State released video from inside that squalid, shell-pounded enclave, showing its last fighters still shooting at the SDF as smoke billowed overhead.

FILE PHOTO: Smoke rises from the last besieged neighborhood in the village of Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province, Syria, March 20, 2019. Picture taken March 20, 2019. REUTERS/Rodi Said/File Photo

It was an attempt to shape the narrative of its defeat, portraying it as a heroic last stand against overwhelming odds and a call to arms for future jihadists.

But in Baghouz in recent weeks long lines of abject, surrendering fighters sat or squatted in a desolate landscape, their dream of world domination in tatters.

Reporting by Rodi Said in Deir al-Zor province and a Reuters journalist in Baghouz; Writing by Angus McDowall/Tom Perry; Editing by Robert Birsel and Alexander Smith

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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2019-03-23 13:21:39Z
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A Brexit crisis deepens, tens of thousands gather in London to demand new referendum - Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) - Thousands of people opposed to Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union will march through central London on Saturday to demand a new referendum as the deepening Brexit crisis risked sinking Prime Minister Theresa May’s premiership.

An EU supporter with the EU flag painted on her face, calling on the government to give Britons a vote on the final Brexit deal, participates in the 'People's Vote' march in central London, Britain March 23, 2019. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez

After three years of tortuous debate, it is still uncertain how, when or even if Brexit will happen as May tries to plot a way out of the gravest political crisis in at least a generation.

May hinted on Friday that she might not bring her twice-defeated EU divorce deal back to parliament next week, leaving her Brexit strategy in meltdown. The Times and The Daily Telegraph reported that pressure was growing on May to resign.

While the country and its politicians are divided over Brexit, most agree it is the most important strategic decision the United Kingdom has faced since World War Two.

Pro-EU protesters will gather for a “Put it to the people march” at Marble Arch on the edge of Hyde Park around midday, before marching past the prime minister’s office in Downing Street and finish outside parliament.

James McGrory, the director of the People’s Vote campaign and one of the organizers of the march, said the campaign for a second Brexit referendum is now the biggest mass movement in Britain, dwarfing the membership of the main political parties.

“People from all walks of life see can what they were once offered bears no relation to what is being delivered and they are angry about it because it feels like a bad deal is being rammed down their throats,” he told Reuters.

Organizers were confident that the size of the crowd would exceed a similar rally held in October, when supporters said about 700,000 people turned up.

Two hundred coaches from around Britain were booked to take people to London for the march. One coach left the Scottish Highlands on Friday evening, and another left from Cornwall on England’s western tip early on Saturday morning.

A petition to cancel Brexit altogether gained 4 million signatures in just 3 days after May told the public “I am on your side” over Brexit and urged lawmakers to get behind her deal.

In the June 23, 2016 referendum, 17.4 million voters, or 52 percent, backed Brexit while 16.1 million, or 48 percent, backed staying in the bloc.

But ever since, opponents of Brexit have been exploring ways to hold another referendum.

May has repeatedly ruled out holding another Brexit referendum, saying it would deepen divisions and undermine support for democracy. Brexit supporters say a second referendum would trigger a major constitutional crisis.

Some opinion polls have shown a slight shift in favor of remaining in the European Union, but there has yet to be a decisive change in attitudes.

Many voters in Britain say they have become increasingly bored by Brexit and May said on Wednesday that they want this stage of the Brexit process to be “over and done with.”

Editing by Guy Faulconbridge

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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2019-03-23 12:44:37Z
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Brexit march: Thousands join referendum protest - BBC News

Thousands are gathering to march through central London calling for a second EU referendum, as MPs search for a way out of the Brexit impasse.

Demonstrators from the "Put It To The People" campaign will march from Park Lane to Parliament Square, followed by a rally in front of Parliament.

It comes after the EU agreed to delay the UK's departure from the EU.

PM Theresa May has said she will ditch plans for another vote on her Brexit deal if not enough MPs support it.

Unless that deal is passed by MPs, the UK will have to come up with an alternative plan or else face leaving without a deal on April.

Meanwhile, a record-breaking online petition on Parliament's website calling for Brexit to be cancelled by revoking Article 50 has attracted more than 4.18 million signatures.

Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran said the petition could "give oxygen" to the campaign for another Brexit referendum.

Speakers at the rally include Labour's deputy leader, Tom Watson, Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, former Tory turned independent MP Anna Soubry and former attorney general Dominic Grieve.

Ms Sturgeon said now was "the moment of maximum opportunity" to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Mr Watson is expected to promise to back Mrs May's deal if she agrees to hold a referendum on it.

He is expected to say: "I've come to the reluctant view that the only way to resolve this and have legitimacy in the eyes of the public is for the people themselves to sign it off."

Ms Soubry told the BBC: "It's good to see Tom Watson coming on the march today... I honestly believe it's the only way forward."

She added: "It's intolerable the situation that we're in and I'm afraid Theresa's the problem.

"I'm not saying the government should go because that's the last thing we want, but I think she has to go and we need some temporary prime minister who can reach out, put the country first, get this back to the British people - that's what we're all marching for today, a people's vote."

Ms Soubry also said Mrs May had made a "desperately bad mistake" blaming the delay to Brexit on MPs in her televised address on Wednesday.

Former Tory chief whip Andrew Mitchell agreed "there was a very strong feeling she'd made an error of judgement" on this.

But dismissing reports of growing pressure on Mrs May to quit, he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "To change prime minister would be a colossal error - it won't change the numbers [in the vote for Mrs May's deal]".

'Clear choices'

If Mrs May's deal is approved by MPs next week, the EU has agreed to extend the Brexit deadline until 22 May. If it is not - and no alternative plan is put forward - the UK is set to leave the EU on 12 April.

In a letter to all MPs on Friday evening, Mrs May offered to talk to MPs over the coming days "as Parliament prepares to take momentous decisions".

Children's minister Nadhim Zahawi told the Today programme that failing to support Mrs May's deal would lead to a "meltdown in our politics, not just for the Conservative party but for all parties".

He said all the other alternatives would require MPs asking for a much longer extension, which Mrs May has said she is not prepared for.

Indicating he would stand down if Mrs May's deal is not voted for, Mr Zahawi said he "cannot justify" going to his constituents and saying: "We failed to deliver this and that now we are having to stay in the EU and go into European elections."

The march comes as the pro-Brexit March to Leave, which started in Sunderland a week ago, continues towards London.

Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage re-joined the March to Leave in Linby, near Nottingham, on Saturday morning telling around 200 Brexit supporters that Mrs May had reduced the nation "to a state of humiliation".

Speaking from the top of an open-top bus, Mr Farage said those gathering for the People's Vote march in London were not the majority, before leading the crowds through the village.

Meanwhile, by 11:32 GMT on Saturday, the total number of signatures calling for Article 50 to be revoked stood at 4,151,815 - beating the previous record reached by another Brexit-related petition in 2016.

Margaret Georgiadou, who set up the petition, tweeted earlier that she had "received three death threats over the phone", she also said she had closed her Facebook account after receiving a "torrent of abuse".

Parliament's petitions committee tweeted on Friday that the rate of signatures was "the highest the site has ever had to deal with", after the website crashed.

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2019-03-23 12:21:06Z
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ISIS has lost its final stronghold in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces says - CNN

The coalition of Kurdish and Arab soldiers backed by US, British and French special forces said it defeated ISIS and fully liberated Baghouz in eastern Syria.

"Syrian Democratic Forces declare total elimination of so-called caliphate and 100% territorial defeat of ISIS. On this unique day, we commemorate thousands of martyrs whose efforts made the victory possible," tweeted Mustafa Bali, head of the SDF press office.

Ending weeks of combat, the US-backed Syrian forces raised a yellow flag atop a building in the town as they celebrated the victory over ISIS.

The SDF flag flutters atop a building in Baghouz.

At its peak, ISIS controlled a huge stretch of territory stretching from western Syria to the outskirts of the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. But the final battle took place in the past several weeks around the small and otherwise unremarkable Syrian town of Baghouz, on the banks of the Euphrates River.

The SDF launched the last assault on the ISIS enclave in early February.

For weeks, US-led coalition airstrikes had pummeled parts of the town while fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pushed forward on the ground.

The Islamic State is dying ... but believers in its radical ideology live on

The final battle played out on a hillside near Baghouz. On Saturday morning, inside what was the group's final enclave, all that remained was a junkyard of wrecked cars, tattered tents, ditches and dead bodies.

Before the offensive started, SDF officials estimated that 1,500 civilians and 500 ISIS fighters remained, but as the assault got under way it became clear that the actual number was much higher. The final phase of the battle was delayed to allow thousands more civilians -- along with foreign ISIS supporters -- out of of the besieged town.

The militants who mounted the last stand in Baghouz included some of the most battle-hardened and experienced personnel remaining in ISIS, and the wives and children of the fighters were used as human shields.

SDF commanders told CNN that its fighters had faced fierce resistance from the terror group, which slowed the offensive with snipers, improvised explosive devices improvised and heat-seeking missiles. The militants had also dug a network of underground tunnels that allowed them to move from house to house undetected.

Smoke rises above Baghouz during the final battle to retake the town.

Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces returning from the frontline in Baghouz flash the "V" for victory sign.

The capture of Baghouz comes nearly three months after US President Donald Trump surprised America's allies -- not least SDF forces on the ground -- by declaring that ISIS had been defeated in Syria and announcing that US troops would be rapidly withdrawn from the country. The decision triggered the resignations of Defense Secretary James Mattis and the senior State Department official in charge of the anti-ISIS campaign.

The developments also come more than four years after the group's elusive leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced the creation of a caliphate from the pulpit of the al-Nuri mosque in the Iraqi city of Mosul.

At the group's height, 7.7 million people were estimated to live under ISIS rule, according to Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), the official name for the coalition fighting ISIS. Many of those people paid taxes, fees and fines to ISIS, which made up a large portion of the group's income.

In the years since, the group's annual revenue more than halved: from up to $1.9 billion in 2014 to a maximum of $870 million in 2016, according to a recent report by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR) at King's College London.

Men suspected of being ISIS fighters wait to be searched by SDF members after leaving Baghouz.

Despite the loss of territory, and funds, a UN-monitoring committee estimated in July 2018 that ISIS membership in Iraq and Syria was still between 20,000 and 30,000.

Altogether, at least 41,490 international citizens traveled to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS, according to ICSR. And foreign fighters continued to arrive, undeterred -- the coalition recently estimated that about 50 were arriving each month.

Lina Khatib, the head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, a UK-based think tank for international affairs, says ISIS will revert to its insurgent roots as it moves underground, using the territorial loss as a call to arms among its network of supporters.

"The group itself has not been eradicated," Khatib told CNN. "The ideology of ISIS is still very much at large."

Has the battle against ISIS really been won?

ISIS may have lost its last sliver of terrain in Syria, but the group is currently waging a fresh guerrilla campaign in far-flung territories of northern Iraq. And its black flag is still flown by affiliates in other corners of the globe, including Nigeria, Libya, Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, Afghanistan and the Philippines.

The US commander leading the war on ISIS said in February that he disagreed with Trump's decision late last year to withdraw troops from Syria, saying the terror group was far from defeated.

Joseph Votel, the top American general in the Middle East, warned: "(The caliphate) still has leaders, still has fighters, it still has facilitators, it still has resources, so our continued military pressure is necessary to continue to go after that network."

Civilians evacuated from the embattled holdout of Baghouz wait to be screened by SDF fighters.

In mid-February, a new Pentagon report also appeared to reinforce the notion that total victory over ISIS was not on the horizon.

The report, the first of its kind since Trump announced plans to pull all troops from Syria, also says "ISIS remains an active insurgent group in both Iraq and Syria."

"ISIS is regenerating key functions and capabilities more quickly in Iraq than in Syria, but absent sustained [counterterrorism] pressure, ISIS could likely resurge in Syria within six to twelve months and regain limited territory," the report said.

Iraq defeated ISIS more than a year ago. The group's revival is already underway

Just over a year after the Iraqi military declared victory over ISIS, militants there are waging a fresh guerrilla campaign from their base in far-flung northern territories -- launching targeted assassinations, looting villages, planting roadside bombs and training a new "strike force," an Iraqi intelligence source told CNN.

In the vast desert badlands near the Hamrin mountain range, residents remain at the mercy of ISIS "gangs" who rule the night. They know the region well, having embedded themselves here back when they were known as the Islamic State of Iraq, and as al Qaeda in Iraq before that.

"The risk of re-emergence is very real. We always need to think about what happened with al Qaeda in Iraq about a decade ago when it was largely defeated. Reports at the time said there were only about 700 members of the group left. But a few years later we saw ISIS emerge," Khatib said.

"We need a long-term strategy, a 10-year strategy ... in order to prevent an enabling environment that could lead to their re-emergence."

CNN's Ben Wedeman reported from eastern Syria. Lauren Said-Moorhouse wrote from London. Eliza Mackintosh and Arwa Damon contributed to this report.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/23/middleeast/isis-caliphate-end-intl/index.html

2019-03-23 11:45:00Z
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ISIS has lost its final stronghold in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces says - CNN

The coalition of Kurdish and Arab soldiers backed by US, British and French special forces said it defeated ISIS and fully liberated Baghouz in eastern Syria.

Ending weeks of combat, the US-backed Syrian forces raised a yellow flag atop a building in the town as they celebrated the victory over ISIS.

The SDF launched the last assault on the ISIS enclave in early February.

For weeks, US-led coalition airstrikes had pummeled parts of the town while fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pushed forward on the ground.

Despite the loss of territory, and funds, a UN-monitoring committee estimated in July 2018 that ISIS membership in Iraq and Syria was still between 20,000 and 30,000.

"The group itself has not been eradicated," Khatib told CNN. "The ideology of ISIS is still very much at large."

Has the battle against ISIS really been won?

The US commander leading the war on ISIS said in February that he disagreed with Trump's decision late last year to withdraw troops from Syria, saying the terror group was far from defeated.

In mid-February, a new Pentagon report also appeared to reinforce the notion that total victory over ISIS was not on the horizon.

The report, the first of its kind since Trump announced plans to pull all troops from Syria, also says "ISIS remains an active insurgent group in both Iraq and Syria."

"We need a long-term strategy, a 10-year strategy ... in order to prevent an enabling environment that could lead to their re-emergence."

CNN's Ben Wedeman reported from eastern Syria. Lauren Said-Moorhouse wrote from London. Eliza Mackintosh and Arwa Damon contributed to this report.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/23/middleeast/isis-caliphate-end-intl/index.html

2019-03-23 11:35:49Z
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