PETALING JAYA (THE STAR/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - Malaysian doctors will be forced to make the tough call over which patient should be given a bed in the intensive care unit (ICU) because of the sharp rise in Covid-19 cases, the Health Ministry said on Sunday (May 30).
Health director-general, Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, said if active Covid-19 cases exceed the capacity of the healthcare facilities in the country, doctors will have to prioritise ICU beds.
"The Health Ministry has warned of possible scenarios in which doctors would have to make the difficult choice to prioritise ICU beds for patients with a high recovery potential over patients with low recovery potential (poor prognosis).
"This is a difficult situation that we are all facing and the Health Ministry would like to call on all parties to work together," he said in a joint press conference with Senior Minister (Security) Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob.
Dr Noor Hisham said the numbers of available beds in ICUs, Covid-19 hospitals, as well as quarantine and treatment centres, were declining because of rapidly rising cases.
The usage of ICU beds for Covid-19 patients was now at 104 per cent capacity, with 1,113 beds in use, while Covid-19 hospital beds have reached 85 per cent capacity, with 10,190 patients currently hospitalised.
As for Covid-19 quarantine and treatment centres, beds were now at 65 per cent capacity, with 27,183 beds in use while ventilators were at 60 per cent, with 2,138 total being used, of which 39 per cent were for Covid-19 patients.
He added that the Health Ministry has taken the initiative to increase the number of beds in Covid-19 hospitals and Covid-19 hybrid hospitals by repurposing certain spaces in the hospitals into ICU units.
"The Kepala Batas Hospital Field ICU, as well as the proposed temporary takeover of the UKM Children's Hospital, are also among the steps we are taking to increase ICU capacity.
"We are also collaborating with NGOs that are offering medical assistance to open more ICUs in areas that need them," he said, adding that the lack of manpower is posing a major challenge to the ministry.
Dr Noor Hisham also said the Health Ministry has increased the quarantine period for travellers arriving from overseas.
The quarantine period for five high-risk countries such as India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh has been extended to 21 days.
He also said Malaysia might be able to flatten the Covid-19 curve in three to four months, but this will require cooperation from the public to adhere to the standard operating procedures.
An accelerated vaccination drive would also be vital to slow the infection curve.
He said with the rise of new variants of concern (VOC), the two-week total lockdown starting Tuesday was necessary to reduce the number of cases and give front-liners much needed breathing room.
Infectious diseases experts say the move will help to protect front-line staff at the airport and could help to ease the load on Singapore's healthcare system, which has had to deal with a spike in community cases in recent weeks.
But they also note the measure has its limitations and implementing it is not as straightforward as it seems. At least one legal expert has raised the issue of the constitutionality of the new requirement with the Government.
New requirements
The Ministry of Health (MOH) said last Wednesday that, from 11.59pm on Saturday, all Singaporeans and PRs returning to the country will have to present a valid negative Covid-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test taken within 72 hours before their departure.
This is the first time MOH has required Singaporeans and PRs to take a pre-departure test.
The ministry had previously said it did not want to make it difficult for them to return home, should they be caught unprepared by rapidly deteriorating pandemic conditions abroad.
The Immigration and Checkpoints Authority's (ICA) SafeTravel website says those travelling by plane or by boat will have to present their test result at the air and sea checkpoints upon arrival in Singapore.
Those who have stayed in lower-risk areas, including Australia, Brunei, China, Hong Kong, Macau and New Zealand, for the last 21 days are exempted.
Children aged six and below are also exempted from the new requirement.
At land checkpoints, only PRs entering Singapore will need to present a valid, negative test result.
PRs who arrive in Singapore overland without a valid, negative test result may be denied entry. Those who fail to comply with the new requirement may have their entry or re-entry permit cancelled.
Travellers must be tested by an accredited or authorised health centre in the country or region of departure.
Documentary proof is required and ICA recommends that travellers ask for a copy of the PCR test report that is in English or accompanied by an English translation, contains the traveller's name, date of birth and passport number, and shows the date and result of the test.
Anxiety over testing
Mr Fin Chua, 30, who has been living in Thailand for eight years, planned to fly back to Singapore next week to visit his father who lives alone.
After hearing about the pre-departure test requirement, the business owner considered moving his flight earlier so he could return before the measure kicked in.
Ultimately, Mr Chua did not do so. Instead, he moved his flight back by two weeks to mid-June, citing the lengthy 21-day stay-home notice he would have to serve if he came back home now.
Mr Chua feels that the new requirement is onerous as it is not easy getting a Covid-19 PCR test in Bangkok .
He said a PCR test in the Thai capital costs about 2,000 baht (S$85) at a government clinic and 4,000 baht at a government hospital, but it is hard for foreigners to get tested as Thais get priority.
The wait to get tested at the clinics can take hours, he said, unless one pays more to join a priority queue which means a wait time of 15 to 30 minutes.
A PCR test in Bangkok costs about 2,000 baht (S$85) at a government clinic and 4,000 baht at a government hospital, but it is hard for foreigners to get tested as Thais get priority. PHOTO: EPA-EFE
Ms Cheryl Wong, 30, who works in the film industry in New York, said she did not mind the new requirement as getting tested for Covid-19 in the US city is easy and there are free services.
"If I lived somewhere else with less testing options and undetermined turnaround times, I'd probably be more annoyed," added Ms Wong, who is returning home on May 31 to renew her US work visa and to see her family after being away for 1½ years.
She noted, though, that the new test requirement did not appear to take into account Singaporeans or PRs who had already been vaccinated, or that individuals may still test positive even though they may no longer be infectious.
She said: "I'm pretty sure I'll test negative because I'm fully vaccinated and I am still cautious. But there is that little bit of a what if."
Mr Samuel Phua, 23, who is coming home next month after graduating from the Sibelius Academy in Finland, is also somewhat anxious about the pre-departure test.
"It is allergy season here, and pollen allergies and Covid-19 have symptoms that are quite similar. I got myself tested recently and my results were negative, but there's always that sliver of doubt and worry that the next one may be positive."
But Mr Phua also said that the new requirement is an important step towards ensuring the safety of Singaporeans both abroad and back home.
Protecting front-liners
Dr Ling Li Min, an infectious disease physician from Rophi Clinic, said the decision to require citizens and PRs to take pre-departure tests before they are allowed entry would have been a difficult one for the authorities to make.
Limited access to swab testing facilities in some countries means that Singaporeans living in places where Covid-19 is raging may not be able to return home.
But with the recent spate of unlinked community cases, Dr Ling said, the authorities now have several fires to fight and the new testing requirement will help to minimise the risk of the virus spreading in Singapore.
This is especially in the light of the fact that the Changi Airport cluster - Singapore's largest active cluster with more than 100 cases - was traced to staff interactions with a family who flew in from South Asia.
While Dr Ling acknowledged that PCR tests may not pick up every single case, she said the mandatory pre-departure tests will at least help to identify those who are infectious and prevent the virus from spreading onboard flights into Singapore.
She added: "It is evident that a key vulnerability exists from when passengers disembark until they are taken to their stay-home notice facility. This measure would further reduce the potential exposure to the virus for that part of the journey."
Professor Paul Tambyah, deputy director of the National University of Singapore (NUS) Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Infectious Diseases Translational Research Programme, also said the new measure would protect Changi Airport staff.
"If this screening reduces the number of infected people passing through the airport even by a small proportion, it might reduce the risk to staff - in particular to those who, for some reason or another, cannot take the vaccines," he said.
Asked if the authorities should also extend the pre-departure test requirement to Singaporeans and PRs returning from lower-risk places, Prof Tambyah said it would be logical to mandate the test for everyone.
"Taiwan and Vietnam were previously considered low-risk places, as was the state of Victoria in Australia. These classifications can change rapidly," he added.
The new measure would protect Changi Airport staff, says Professor Paul Tambyah. ST PHOTO: MARK CHEONG
Not straightforward
Professor Teo Yik Ying, dean of NUS' Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, said implementing the new requirement may be more challenging than anticipated.
Echoing a point made by Prof Tambyah, Prof Teo said not every jurisdiction will have commercial PCR testing capacity that is accredited and trustworthy.
Hence, there is a need to ensure that Singaporeans and PRs who intend to travel to Singapore are able to access proper testing.
Otherwise, the testing requirement could be additional logistical hurdles for those returning as they would have to transit in cities where these tests are available, Prof Teo said.
He added: "It will not be useful if returning travellers simply pay for a substandard test or a forged negative PCR test certificate."
There is also the issue of the Government's responsibility towards citizens who test positive and cannot return home on a commercial flight.
MOH said travellers who test positive on their pre-departure test should seek medical care and ensure that they have fully recovered and are non-infectious before travelling to Singapore.
Singaporeans who test positive for Covid-19 while overseas and require urgent medical care can still return home via a medevac flight or any other equivalent form of conveyance.
Singapore Management University assistant professor of law Benjamin Joshua Ong noted that Article 13(1) of the Singapore Constitution states that no citizen of Singapore shall be "banished or excluded" from Singapore.
The courts have not ruled on the precise meaning of the words "banished" or "excluded", he said.
"It is possible that those words mean that anything preventing a citizen of Singapore from travelling to Singapore would be unconstitutional. On the other hand, a court might also hold that it is acceptable for certain requirements to be imposed on citizens before they can return...
"I think it is at least arguable that, if the restrictions are too onerous, then those restrictions would in substance amount to banishment or exclusion," he added.
Prof Ong said he has written to MOH for more information about the precise legal basis for the new pre-departure test requirement.
He also suggested that exceptions be allowed, citing a hypothetical case of a Singaporean abroad whose overseas visa or work permit may be expiring but cannot get access to a Covid-19 test in time to return home, putting him at risk of overstaying.
However, SMU law don Eugene Tan said that while at first glance it might appear that the pre-departure test requirement for Singaporeans is in breach of Article 13(1), this is not the case.
“While Article 13(1) is not explicitly subjected to any derogations or restrictions, a citizen who is not in Singapore voluntarily cannot be said to be banished or excluded,” Associate Professor Tan said.
Instead, the testing requirement only means that a citizen will not be allowed to board a flight or ferry to Singapore unless he has a negative Covid-19 test result. If the citizen does somehow make the journey to Singapore, he will unlikely be denied entry, Prof Tan added.
“In other words, the pre-departure test requirement imposes a duty on the flight or ferry operator to ensure that all passengers travelling to Singapore have the necessary negative test results based on their travel histories. The constitutional guarantee provided by Article 13(1) is in no way under threat.”
Travellers should ensure that they have fully recovered and are non-infectious before travelling to Singapore. ST PHOTO: MARK CHEONG
Prof Tambyah said there seems to be a reluctance to ban flights and replace them with evacuation flights like what was done with Wuhan at the start of the pandemic.
Hence, the new measure is a logical option despite its limitations.
Prof Teo said he believes that the Singapore Government will not leave any citizen in the lurch during a medical emergency, but stressed that individuals also need to bear responsibility should they choose to travel out of Singapore while the pandemic is still raging globally.
He added: "This is really a reminder to Singaporeans and PRs that they should avoid unnecessary travel out of Singapore during this period, and if they choose to do so, to ensure they have the necessary insurance coverage for Covid-19 medical evacuation if infected."
KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian government said on Sunday (May 30) that all malls will have to be shut, while 17 essential service sectors will be allowed to operate during the impending two-week "total lockdown".
These sectors include healthcare, telecommunications and media, food and beverage, utilities as well as banking.
The government will also allow companies under 12 manufacturing sectors to continue operating, such as food and drink manufacturing, medical devices, textiles for producing personal protection equipment as well as oil and gas. They will need to operate at 60 per cent capacity.
Malaysian Senior Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob. (File photo: Bernama)
In a press conference, Senior Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said: "We hope the manufacturing sector will follow the government's orders, because we have given the condition that only 60 per cent could work."
"But I've read social media posts and found employers who forced their employees to exceed the 60 per cent capacity," he added. Mr Ismail Sabri said that employees could report such breaches to the human resource ministry and the police.
Shopping malls will need to close, except supermarkets and premises dealing in food and beverage and basic necessities, the minister added.
Only two people from each household would be allowed to go out to buy essentials or for medical services, with movement limited to a 10km radius.
A statement by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry also said: "The manufacturing and manufacturing related services sectors that are allowed to operate is to ensure minimal disruption to the supply chain of critical parts, components and finished products."
"This is essential to support the continued operations of critical infrastructures and front-liners such as security, healthcare systems, information and communications and as well as ensure adequate supply of basic necessities for the Rakyat (people)."
The Sunday announcement came after the Prime Minister's Office announced on Friday that Malaysia would be undergoing a "total lockdown" from Jun 1 to Jun 14.
Malaysia's COVID-19 numbers have continued to surge, with a record 9,020 new cases and 98 deaths on Saturday. On Sunday, there were 6,999 new cases. There are now more than 560,000 cases nationwide.
Putrajaya has assured people that there would be sufficient food stocks to last throughout Phase 1 of the total lockdown. However, there have been reports of lines of people flocking to buy necessities and goods in anticipation of Tuesday.
During the same press conference on Sunday, health ministry director-general Noor Hisham Abdullah warned that a daily increase of 1,000 to 2,000 new cases was not impossible, and that the high number of deaths, such as 98 fatalities recorded on Saturday, might continue and even rise.
"The Health Ministry has warned that a situation might arise where doctors might have to make the difficult choice, to give priority for intensive-care unit (ICU) beds to patients with higher recovery potential, than those with poor prognosis."
Malaysia health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah. (Photo: Bernama)
Dr Noor Hisham outlined five actions that the Health Ministry would take during the two-week lockdown, including allowing breathing space for healthcare personnel and hospitals to reassess their equipment and speeding up the vaccination process.
Healthcare personnel would also do targeted screenings in the field using the Rapid Test Kit-Antigen (RTK-Ag) detection method for COVID-19, he said.
MORE VACCINATION CENTRES PLANNED, PRIVATE CLINICS TO ADMINISTER JABS
Earlier on Sunday, Minister for Science, Technology and Innovation Khairy Jamaluddin said in a press conference that more vaccination centres will be opened in the coming month to speed up the vaccination process.
The first among these will be five mega vaccination centres around the Klang Valley. “Three will be in Selangor and two will be set up in Kuala Lumpur," he said, adding that the set up would begin on Jun 7.
FILE PHOTO: People receive AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination centre in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia May 5, 2021. REUTERS/Lim Huey Teng
Mr Khairy, who is also the coordinating minister for the COVID-19 Immunisation Taskforce said 1,000 private general practitioner (GP) clinics will be joining the National COVID-19 Immunisation Program by Jun 30.
He added that 500 of these clinics will begin administering vaccines starting Jun 15.
"I estimate that GPs and private hospital vaccination centres can contribute and administer 40,000 doses in a day, and 400,000 doses (in total) by Jun 30” he said, adding that this would be subject to the supply of the vaccines.
Explaining that there were currently 2,500 GP clinics registered under the immunisation program, Mr Khairy said the government will be paying the private practices to administer the vaccines.
Besides that Mr Khairy also shared that Malaysia will officially start rolling out drive-through vaccinations for the public after a successful pilot project in a university in Kota Baru, Kelantan .
“We did it in Universiti Sains Malaysia in Kubang Kerian and it was successful. We will now allow other states to start this for the public too," said the minister.
Prior to the total lockdown, the government had begun tightening restrictions under a nationwide movement control order, dubbed "MCO 3.0" which started on May 12 and will last until Jun 7.
Among the restrictions under MCO 3.0 include 80 per cent of public sector employees needing to work from home, and 40 per cent for the private sector. Businesses can only operate from 8am until 8pm daily.
KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian government said on Sunday (May 30) that all malls will have to be shut, while 17 essential service sectors will be allowed to operate during the impending two-week "total lockdown".
These sectors include healthcare, telecommunications and media, food and beverage, utilities as well as banking.
The government will also allow companies under 12 manufacturing sectors to continue operating, such as food and drink manufacturing, medical devices, textiles for producing personal protection equipment as well as oil and gas. They will need to operate at 60 per cent capacity.
Malaysian Senior Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob. (File photo: Bernama)
In a press conference, Senior Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said: "We hope the manufacturing sector will follow the government's orders, because we have given the condition that only 60 per cent could work."
"But I've read social media posts and found employers who forced their employees to exceed the 60 per cent capacity," he added. Mr Ismail Sabri said that employees could report such breaches to the human resource ministry and the police.
Shopping malls will need to close, except supermarkets and premises dealing in food and beverage and basic necessities, the minister added.
A statement by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry also said: "The manufacturing and manufacturing related services sectors that are allowed to operate is to ensure minimal disruption to the supply chain of critical parts, components and finished products."
"This is essential to support the continued operations of critical infrastructures and front-liners such as security, healthcare systems, information and communications and as well as ensure adequate supply of basic necessities for the Rakyat (people)."
The Sunday announcement came after the Prime Minister's Office announced on Friday that Malaysia would be undergoing a "total lockdown" from Jun 1 to Jun 14.
Malaysia's COVID-19 numbers have continued to surge, with a record 9,020 new cases and 98 deaths on Saturday. On Sunday, there were 6,999 new cases. There are now more than 560,000 cases nationwide.
Putrajaya has assured people that there would be sufficient food stocks to last throughout Phase 1 of the total lockdown. However, there have been reports of lines of people flocking to buy necessities and goods in anticipation of Tuesday.
MORE VACCINATION CENTRES PLANNED, PRIVATE CLINICS TO ADMINISTER JABS
Earlier on Sunday, Minister for Science, Technology and Innovation Khairy Jamaluddin said in a press conference that more vaccination centres will be opened in the coming month to speed up the vaccination process.
The first among these will be five mega vaccination centres around the Klang Valley. “Three will be in Selangor and two will be set up in Kuala Lumpur," he said, adding that the set up would begin on Jun 7.
FILE PHOTO: People receive AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination centre in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia May 5, 2021. REUTERS/Lim Huey Teng
Mr Khairy, who is also the coordinating minister for the COVID-19 Immunisation Taskforce said 1,000 private general practitioner (GP) clinics will be joining the National COVID-19 Immunisation Program by Jun 30.
He added that 500 of these clinics will begin administering vaccines starting Jun 15.
"I estimate that GPs and private hospital vaccination centres can contribute and administer 40,000 doses in a day, and 400,000 doses (in total) by Jun 30” he said, adding that this would be subject to the supply of the vaccines.
Explaining that there were currently 2,500 GP clinics registered under the immunisation program, Mr Khairy said the government will be paying the private practices to administer the vaccines.
Besides that Mr Khairy also shared that Malaysia will officially start rolling out drive-through vaccinations for the public after a successful pilot project in a university in Kota Baru, Kelantan .
“We did it in Universiti Sains Malaysia in Kubang Kerian and it was successful. We will now allow other states to start this for the public too," said the minister.
Prior to the total lockdown, the government had begun tightening restrictions under a nationwide movement control order, dubbed "MCO 3.0" which started on May 12 and will last until Jun 7.
Among the restrictions under MCO 3.0 include 80 per cent of public sector employees needing to work from home, and 40 per cent for the private sector. Businesses can only operate from 8am until 8pm daily.
TAIPEI: Taiwan has not given up hope of eventually getting COVID-19 vaccines from Germany's BioNTech, Health Minister Chen Shih-chung said on Sunday (May 30), a deal that Taipei's government has blamed China for not being able to complete.
After recording just a handful of daily infections for months, Taiwan is dealing with relatively large numbers of community transmissions, though infection rates are starting to fall.
It has only vaccinated around 1 per cent of its more than 23 million people but has almost 30 million shots on order, from AstraZeneca, Moderna and two domestic firms.
The Chinese-claimed island has blamed Beijing for nixing a deal earlier this year for BioNTech vaccines, which China denies.
Chen told reporters that although talks for that shot had "somewhat hit the rocks", Taiwan "has not completely given up hope" of obtaining them.
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co has a contract with BioNTech to sell the vaccines in Greater China, including to Taiwan, but Taiwan's government says it will only deal with Germany's BioNTech directly and does not trust vaccines from China.
Outside of Greater China, BioNTech has partnered with Pfizer.
Chen said that in late January, the COVAX vaccine-sharing scheme for lower-income countries had told Taiwan it could get shots from Pfizer, but on May 3 COVAX informed the government that would not be possible.
Taiwan is under its second-highest level of curbs to stop the spread of infections, including limiting personal gatherings and closing entertainment venues.
Chen said the task was to ensure those measures were being properly enforced, adding, "At present there are no plans or intentions for a lockdown."
The government has come under fire from opposition parties for delays in testing and reporting positive cases, but Chen said that was now improving.
Taiwan reported 355 domestic COVID-19 cases on Sunday, down from 486 on Saturday. Total daily cases peaked on May 17 and have been falling since Friday.
Taiwan has reported 8,160 infections since the pandemic began, including 110 deaths.
Authorities in Vietnam have detected a new coronavirus variant that is a combination of the Indian and UK Covid-19 variants and spreads quickly by air, the health minister said on Saturday.
After successfully containing the virus for most of last year, Vietnam is grappling with a rise in infections since late April that accounts for more than half of the total 6,856 registered cases. So far, there have been 47 deaths.
"Vietnam has uncovered a new Covid-19 variant combining characteristics of the two existing variants first found in India and the UK," Health Minister Nguyen Thanh Long said, describing it as a hybrid of the two known variants.
"That the new one is an Indian variant with mutations that originally belong to the UK variant is very dangerous," he told a government meeting, a recording of which was obtained by Reuters.
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The Southeast Asian country had previously detected seven virus variants: B.1.222, B.1.619, D614G, B.1.1.7 - known as the UK variant, B.1.351, A.23.1 and B.1.617.2 - the "Indian variant".
Long said Vietnam would soon publish genome data of the newly identified variant, which he said was more transmissible than the previously known types.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified four variants of SARS-CoV-2 of global concern. These include variants that emerged first in India, Britain, South Africa and Brazil.
"At the present time, we have not yet made an assessment of the virus variant reported in Vietnam," Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO Technical Lead for Covid-19, said in an emailed statement. "Our country office is working with the Ministry of Health in Vietnam and we expect more information soon."
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From the WHO's current understanding, the variant detected in Vietnam was the B.1.617.2 variant, more commonly known as the Indian variant, possibly with an additional mutation, she said.
"However we will provide more information as soon as we receive it," Van Kerkhove added.
Long said laboratory cultures of the new variant showed the virus replicated itself very quickly, possibly explaining why so many new cases had appeared in different parts of the country in a short period of time.
The health ministry told the meeting the government was working to secure 10 million vaccine doses under the COVAX cost-sharing scheme, as well as a further 20 million doses of Pfizer's (PFE.N) vaccine and 40 million of Russia's Sputnik V.
The country of about 98 million people has so far received 2.9 million doses and aims to secure 150 million this year.
SIDOARJO, East Java: Indonesian Muanisah, who goes by one name, recalled the day when she held her 40-day-old baby in despair as he had trouble breathing.
She was just about to have her breakfast on May 29, 2006 when she smelled a pungent odour, which she believed caused her baby to cry while gasping for air.
“He was yawning ... unable to breathe. I was afraid something wrong had happened to my child,” said Mdm Muanisah.
Unaware of what the smell was, she got out of her house but the odour was there too.
She decided to take public transport and seek refuge at her family’s house a few kilometres away where the air was clean. There, her baby could finally breathe normally again, she said.
“They (authorities) just said there was a gas leak,” said Mdm Muanisah, who was 22-year-old at the time.
Within a few days, it became clear that the cause of the odour was a mud flow bursting in the middle of a paddy field in Sidoarjo, East Java, just 200m away from Mdm Muanisah’s house.
Muanisah is now working as a motorcycle taxi rider to support her family. (Photo: Kiki Siregar)
Now, 15 years later, the mud flow has buried thousands of homes, factories and shops. It is believed to be covering an area of more than 650ha currently and is showing no signs of stopping.
The Sidoarjo mud flow has disrupted the lives of about 60,000 people, forcing them to flee or adapt to the unpleasant conditions.
The mud flow also produces methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that causes global warming and leads to climate change.
A February study by senior researcher Adriano Mazzini et al showed that the mud flow releases 100,000 tonnes of methane yearly into the atmosphere. This is said to be the site with the highest methane emission ever recorded for a single natural gas manifestation.
PEOPLE SUFFER FROM THE MUD FLOW
The cause of the mud flow is still a topic of debate until today.
Some argue that the eruption was triggered by a 6.3 magnitude quake two days earlier in Yogyakarta, some 260km away.
There are also people who believe that drilling by oil and gas company Lapindo Brantas nearby was the culprit. Others think that the combination of both events may have contributed to the mud flow.
Mr Khudori, whose house was buried by the mud flow six months after it first emerged, is frustrated by the inconveniences.
“The smell was too strong … and it also affected the water, (I got) itchy, it was polluted, we can’t drink it. Previously, we could drink it before mud flow existed.
"After the emergence of the mud flow, sometimes if I take a shower, I’ll feel itchy. And the smell made me short of breath,” said Mr Khudori, who goes by one name.
The 54-year-old was forced to find a new home about 1.5km away.
“I can still smell it. Never mind 1.5km, even at the distance of 5km it can still be smelled during the rainy season.
“If it’s the rainy season, the smell of methane is very strong. Though when it is the dry season, it is not so obvious,” said Mr Khudori.
Khudori used to live 200m away from Sidoarjo mud flow. (Photo: Kiki Siregar)
He also observed that since the mud flow emerged, Sidoarjo has become hotter. “The mud flow releases heat,” the father of six said, adding that floods seemed to occur more now.
He said there is nothing he can do about the condition, apart from turning to bottled mineral water for consumption.
A 2017 study showed that the mud temperature, which was previously 100 degree Celsius, was 60 degree Celsius. Meteorological agency data showed that the average temperature in Sidoarjo has seen an increase of less than 1 degrees Celsius in the last 15 years.
Mr Khudori, who used to work at a factory near the mud flow, now works as a motorcycle taxi rider with no fixed income as the mud had also buried his workplace.
Mdm Muanisah, whose house was buried by the mud in November 2006, has since rented a house about 5km away from the mud flow.
She said there is also nothing she can do about the complaints they have, apart from using a mask at home to repel the odour she occasionally smells.
“Even before COVID-19, I have gotten used to wearing a mask,” she said.
EMBANKMENT AND PIPES TO CONTAIN THE BURST
At its peak, the mud discharged was equivalent to about 25 Olympic-sized swimming pools daily, said authorities.
To ensure that the mud flow does not continue to bury the surroundings, an embankment and pipes have been built to divert the mud to a nearby river.
Sidoarjo mud flow covers an area of about 650ha. (Photo: Boy Slamet)
The mud comprises 80 per cent water, said Mr Pattiasina Jefry Recky, head of Sidoarjo Mud Control Center (PPLS) which is the agency overseeing the mud flow.
“The mud from the burst is about 60,000 to 90,000 cubic metres per day. And we can flow about 30 million cubic metres per year into the Porong river, but that is not enough because we are dealing with quite a lot of problems.
“The ships which (pump the mud) are old ships, so we can't work more effectively,” he said.
One of the ships which pump the Sidoarjo mud into the Porong river. (Photo: Kiki Siregar)
In addition, the agency needs to ensure that the embankment is strong.
Mr Pattiasina said some geological experts predicted that the mud flow will ooze for at least 40 years.
"It has only been 15 years. If the drainage and embankment protection is safe, then it is safe.
"We're only afraid of the rainy season because our embankment is an earthen-filled dam. It was built in a rush back then. For us technical people, a technical embankment should not be like that."
He said that the embankment is 11m high. "And most likely it can’t be more than that. We are afraid that if it is higher, it will collapse because the carrying capacity is not strong," he added.
PROPOSALS TO MAKE USE OF THE MUD FLOW
Mr Mazzini, who is a senior researcher at the Centre of Earth Evolution and Dynamics (CEED) of the University of Oslo, said the Sidoarjo mud flow is something between a magmatic volcano and a mud volcano.
Mr Mazzini, who has studied the mud flow since 2006 and has visited the site numerous times, concluded that the mud flow is connected to the active Arjuno-Welirang volcanoes about 20km away.
Sidoarjo mud flow has buried thousands of homes, factories and shops. (Photo: Kiki Siregar)
The conclusion was made because the gas and water from the mud flow and the volcanoes are the same.
His latest study, which was conducted with his colleagues using a combined method of ground-based and satellite observations, showed that the methane concentration in Sidoarjo is very high compared to other parts of East Java. Most of the methane originates from the mud flow, according to the study.
Government agencies told CNA they do not know how much gas methane has been released by the mud flow.
Mr Pattiasina of PPLS said there have been plans to make lithium batteries out of the mud, but as of now it is still being discussed.
Head of Sidoarjo Mud Control Center (PPLS) Pattiasina Jefry Recky showing a map of Sidoarjo mud site. (Photo: Kiki Siregar)
Head of Sidoarjo’s environment and sanitation agency Sigit Setyawan said the agency had planned to work with an energy company to produce biomass from the mud as an alternative source of renewable energy since 2019.
“However, the plan was constrained by the COVID-19 pandemic,” he told CNA.
He added that the agency also proposed to plant productive crops on the land buried by the mud, which the government has bought from locals as the area was too dangerous to live in.
GOVERNMENT HAS TO DO MORE: ENVIRONMENT NGO
Mr Anung Suprayitno, head of the meteorological, climatological and geophysical agency (BMKG) Malang, said that even though the mud flow has existed for 15 years, more data is needed to conclude its impact on the climate.
The agency, which oversees the management of meteorological and climatological data throughout East Java, said it does not know the full extent of Sidoarjo mud flow's contribution to greenhouse gas emission.
The Sidoarjo mud flow is flushed into Porong river. (Photo: Boy Slamet)
While meteorological data in the last 15 years shows that the temperature at Sidoarjo has increased by less than 1 degree Celsius and rainfall has increased in a small amount, Mr Suprayitno said the agency does not know if the mud flow is an reinforcing factor that accelerates the local scale of climate change.
Mr Rere Christanto, who is the director executive of environmental non-governmental organisation Walhi East Java, said that there has been an increase in disasters over the past few years in East Java especially floods and landslides.
The Sidoarjo mud flow is part of a site that accounts for the largest emission of methane gas, and hence it has a big role to play in the build-up of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, he said.
He said it is important that the government acknowledges this and does more than discharging the water sludge into the Porong river.
The government has to analyse the mud and look into the possible extent and danger of its content, he said.
"Now, if we have a threat map, we can imagine what actions the government can take and then take precautions. How large the area is and where. For example, the community can be given masks to wear.
"But it won't happen if the government doesn't want to admit (that the site releases huge amounts of methane)."
