SEOUL (BLOOMBERG, REUTERS) - North Korea appeared to have fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile for the first time in about two years, adding to a series of tests by Kim Jong Un’s regime of nuclear weapons designed to evade US interceptors.
North Korea is suspected of launching an SLBM on Tuesday (Oct 19) from the east coast area of Sinpo into waters between the peninsula and Japan, South Korea’s military said. It did not say if the short-range missile was fired from a submarine or an underwater platform. North Korea has a submarine base and an underwater platform for missile tests in that area.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said North Korea fired two ballistic missiles and no damage has been reported. North Korea is barred by United Nations resolutions from ballistic missile testing, and Tokyo protested the latest launch.
The latest launch follows a series of tests in September of weapons designed to deliver nuclear warheads to South Korea and Japan – two US allies that host the bulk of American troops in the region.
One of the weapons was what North Korea called a “hypersonic missile", suggesting the regime had come closer to putting nuclear warheads in high-speed gliders that can evade US missile defences. Kim Jong Un’s state last month also showed off a new system to launch ballistic missiles from a train – just hours before South Korean President Moon Jae-in observed his government’s test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
North Korea often times its tests for political purposes. On Thursday, South Korea is set to launch its new three-stage Nuri rocket, a US$1.8 billion project designed to put a 1.5-tonne satellite into a orbit about 600-800 km above the Earth.
The missile launched on Tuesday flew 430-450km and reached an altitude of about 60km, the Yonhap News Agency reported, citing a person it did not identify. That would be consistent with a short-range ballistic missile and not nearly as long as when it last tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile in October 2019, firing a Pukguksong-3 from an underwater platform.
The Pukguksong-3 is designed to be launched from a submarine and has an estimated range of at least 1,900 kilometers. Japan initially mistook that test of a single, two-stage missile as being a launch of two missiles.
Since then, North Korea has rolled out two new versions of the weapon – the Pukguksong-4 and Pukguksong-5 – in military parades.
Yonhap News Agency said the latest test may be of a shorter-range SLBM, which appeared to be part of an array of weapons on display last week at an indoor show in Pyongyang. The exhibitions also included the hypersonic glide vehicle and what weapons experts said is the world’s largest road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile and likely designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads to the US mainland.
The latest launch provides a reminder to US President Joe Biden that Kim’s nuclear arsenal remains among the United States' biggest foreign policy challenges despite former president Donald Trump’s decision to hold face-to-face summits with the North Korean leader. Although Kim made a vague commitment in 2018 to “work toward complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula”, he has continued to advance his nuclear weapons programme.
In January, Kim outlined broad plans to upgrade his nuclear arsenal to improve his capability to strike the US, feeding speculation he would resume weapons tests. North Korea has one submarine capable of launching missiles and has been building a second one at Sinpo. While such a vessel would probably be noisy and unable to stray far from the coast without being tracked, even one submarine lurking off the Korean Peninsula would give US military planners a dangerous new threat to consider in the event of any conflict.
North Korea’s debut of an SLBM in 2015 opened a new potential area of operations for its navy, the US Defence Intelligence Agency said in a report this month.
“This capability is likely to grow slowly because constructing and deploying new submarines requires a lengthy, resource-intensive manufacturing process,” the report said.
Timing of launch
The North's missile launch on Tuesday pulled Japan’s new prime minister off the campaign trail and overshadowing the opening of a major arms fair in Seoul.
It came after US and South Korean envoys met in Washington to discuss the nuclear standoff with North Korea on Monday. Spy chiefs from the United States, South Korea, and Japan were reported to be meeting in Seoul on Tuesday as well.
“Our military is closely monitoring the situation and maintaining readiness posture in close cooperation with the United States, to prepare for possible additional launches,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
South Korea’s national security council held an emergency meeting and expressed “deep regret” over the test, urging the North to resume talks.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida cancelled scheduled campaign appearances in northern Japan, and the deputy chief cabinet secretary told reporters that Kishida was planning to return to Tokyo to deal with the missile situation.
South Korea’s unification ministry, which handles inter-Korean relations, said daily routine liaison calls with the North were conducted normally on Tuesday.
The series of recent launches as well as the opening of the unusual military show in Pyongyang suggest that North Korea may be resuming military and international affairs after nearly two years of focusing inward amid the Covid-19 pandemic, said Chad O’Carroll, CEO of Korea Risk Group.
“North Korea’s renewed testing of ballistic missiles suggests the worst of domestic hardship between summer 2020-2021 could be over,” he said on Twitter.
“Pyongyang tends to focus on one big strategic issue at a time, so the renewed testing could suggest military – later foreign policy – now priority”.
The launch came as the intelligence chiefs of the United States, South Korea, and Japan were due to meet in Seoul to discuss the standoff with North Korea, amid other issues, Yonhap news agency reported, citing a government source.
The US special representative for North Korea, Sung Kim, said that he would visit Seoul for talks this week.
“The US continues to reach out to Pyongyang to restart dialogue,” Kim said after meeting with his South Korean counterpart in Washington on Monday. “We harbour no hostile intent towards (North Korea), and we are open to meeting with them without preconditions.”
Missile race
The missiles tested recently by North Korea appear aimed at matching or surpassing South Korea’s quietly expanding arsenal, analysts have said.
Last month South Korea successfully tested an SLBM, becoming the first country without nuclear weapons to develop such a system. North Korea test fired a missile launched from a train on the same day.
This month the two Koreas held duelling defence exhibitions aimed at showcasing their latest weaponry amid a spiralling arms race.
As news of Tuesday’s missile launch broke, representatives of hundreds of international companies and foreign militaries were gathered in Seoul for the opening ceremonies of the International Aerospace and Defence Exhibition (ADEX).
It is set to be South Korea’s largest defence expo ever, organisers said, with displays of next-generation fighter aircraft, attack helicopters, drones, and other advanced weapons, as well as space rockets and civilian aerospace designs.
South Korea is also preparing to test fire its first homegrown space launch vehicle on Thursday.
Though analysts say the South Korean rocket has few potential applications as a weapon, such tests are unlikely to be welcomed in North Korea, which has complained of a double standard in which its own space programme is criticised overseas as a front for military missile development.
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